中国个人消费信贷状况及风险防范研究

随着个人信用消费的不断扩大,消费信贷的比重不断提高,在整个市场个人信用制度不完善的情况下,个人信贷风险凸现,银行个人信贷中的不良资产率上升。本文从中国消费信贷的总量状况出发,对于银行消费信贷内部结构展开探讨,继而分析消费信贷的客户风险、制度风险及法律政策风险,并以此为基础提出了建立个人信用管理制度、充分利用客户信用分析法、逐步试点个人破产制度、建立银行内控体系及风险转嫁渠道以及完善个人消费信贷的相关法律保障等防范措施。     

Improving lay understanding of exposure to electromagnetic fields; the effect of information on perception of and responses to risk

Studies show that, although many people are concerned about the potential health risks of being exposed to electromagnetic fields (EMF), lay understanding of exposure, an important determinant of risk perceptions and responses, is limited. In an online consumer panel (n = 245), we tested the effects of providing people with information about EMF on lay understanding of exposure, and on perceptions and responses to risks, using an experimental 2?×?2?×?2 design. Providing people with specific information explaining the distance–exposure relationship, clarifying EMF policy, or specifying personal exposure management options actions resulted in a better understanding of exposure. We demonstrated that information provision as such had no effects on concerns about EMF nor on perceived risk of personal sources, i.e. mobile phones, but lowered perception of risk of public sources, i.e. mobile phone base stations and high-voltage power lines. In addition, information explaining the distance–exposure relationship in combination with policy information resulted in reduced self-reported risk-aversive responses. Moreover, participants who understood more about exposure in relation to the distance to the source showed lower perceptions of risk, were less likely to restrict their own exposure, and more likely to accept new installations of public sources of EMF in their neighborhood. In contrast, awareness that exposure was mainly determined by personal use of EMF sources corresponded with higher perceptions of risk from personal sources and a higher likelihood to restrict one’s own exposure. Our findings provide focal points for improving communication on EMF. In particular, we suggest to include information clarifying the distance–exposure relationship to improve understanding of exposure.     

论机动车保险中高风险车辆的风险管理

高风险车辆赔付率的高低对机动车保险业务的经营效益有极大的影响,是保险公司风险管理的重点。按照风险管理的基本原理,保险公司应从风险规避、风险转移和风险控制三个方面着手,采取适当措施,加强对高风险车辆的风险管理,降低赔付率,保证业务的稳定性。不仅如此,由于风险具有可变性,实施风险管理不能一成不变,必须根据风险变化的情形随时加以调整和修改,按照科学的程序进行。     

Manifest anxiety,general self-efficacy and locus of control as determinants of personal and general risk perception

The hypothesis that risk perception is associated with differences in personality was proposed. Three personality variables were used, Rotter's Internal vs External Locus of Control Scale, Schwarzer's General Self-efficacy Scale and Taylor's Manifest Anxiety Scale. A scale asking for personal and general risk perception measured perceived risk. It was proposed that individuals low in anxiety, having an internal locus of control and high in self-efficacy should perceive general risks and personal risks higher than individuals high in anxiety and low in self-efficacy and having external locus of control should do. Fifty-nine business students responded to these three scales. The hypothesis was supported by the results and suggested that the personality measures and particularly anxiety were significantly associated to both personal and general risk perceptions.     

Risk perception by industrial radiographers: Hungary and the UK compared

Perceptions of risks from two groups of industrial radiographers, one from Hungary, (n = 45) and from the United Kingdom, (n = 29) were compared by the psychometric method. The comparison was made because both groups were at risk for high doses of ionizing radiation. We found the groups had similar demographic profiles but poor socio-economic conditions of Hungarians were associated with higher levels of emotional distress. Correlation HU-UK for personal and general risks were at a significant level for topics that included lifestyle and radiation risks. Perceptions of risks from radiation were small except for large personal risk from East European nuclear power plants. Knowledge of radiation risk intranationally was correlated positively with personal risk for UK radiographers and negatively for Hungarians. However, average overall risk perceptions from the same topic list for all radiographers did not differ significantly from a group (n = 1461) of UK citizens, though radiographer's risks from radiation were considerably greater. As a new lifesaving intervention it was proposed that radiation risk reduction could be achieved by genetic testing.     

商业银行法律风险防控体系优化建设对策研究

法律风险是商业银行经营管理过程中面临的重要风险之一.作者在分析了我国商业银行的法律风险具有多元化、国际化、复杂化、影响扩大化和风险责任个人化特征的基础上,介绍了国际知名银行的法律风险防控相关实践经验,并就进一步健全和完善我国商业银行法律风险防控体系建设问题提出了具体的对策建议,主要包括明确法律风险防控体系的基本架构、完善内部法律工作体制和机制、妥善处理上市银行法律风险问题、进一步提升法律咨询审查工作质量和效率、建立健全被诉案件风险防控机制、进一步加强法律专业队伍建设以及合理发挥外部律师与内部法律人员的互补作用等.     

Algorithmic portfolio choice: lessons from panel survey data

Automated asset management offerings algorithmically assign risky portfolios to individual investors based on investor characteristics such as age, net income, or self-assessment of risk aversion. Using new German household panel data, we investigate the key household characteristics that drive private asset allocation decisions. This information allows us to assess which set of variables should be included in algorithmic portfolio advice. Using heavily cross-validated classification trees, we find that a combination of household balance sheet variables—describing the ability to take risks (e.g., net wealth)—and household personal characteristics—describing the willingness to take risks (e.g., risk aversion)—best explain the cross-sectional variation in household portfolio choice. Our empirical evidence is in line with models of portfolio choice under decreasing relative risk aversion and fixed investment costs. The results suggest the utility of a more holistic modeling of household characteristics. Including background risks in the form of household leverage not only makes investment sense, but is also the new regulatory reality under MIFID II rules. Robo-advisors are strongly advised to act accordingly.     

The differences in perception of radiological risks: lay people versus new and experienced employees in the nuclear sector

This paper studies the differences in perception of two radiological risks – an accident at a nuclear installation and medical X-rays – between four different groups: the general population without (1) and with experience related to radiological risks (2), new employees (3) and professionally exposed people (4) in the nuclear sector. More precisely, this study determines if differences in risk perception can be explained by the level of experiences with ionizing radiation, the knowledge level about radiological risks, the confidence in authorities, the attitude towards nuclear energy, the trust in a management of nuclear installations, gender and age. The data are gathered using computer assisted personal interviews based on the SCK-CEN Barometer of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre. The relations between risk perception and the independent variables are tested with linear regression analysis. The risk perception of both risks differs significantly between the four population groups. The professionally exposed people and the new employees in the nuclear sector have a significant higher risk perception for medical X-rays compared to the risk for an accident at a nuclear installation. For the general population without experience, it was just the opposite. The general population with experience does not have a significant difference in risk perception between the two radiological risks. Level of experiences with ionizing radiation is determined as an important variable; people have a lower perception of radiological risks when they have higher experiences with risk.     

Public perceptions of environmental risk in China

China, as a ‘double risk’ society, is in urgent need for effective environmental risk management systems. Compared with other risks, man-made environmental risks have not been given due weight. Public awareness and perceptions of environmental risks are crucial in all phases of effective risk management. However, little is known about public perceptions of environmental risks in China. To contribute to better understanding of public perception of environmental risk, a questionnaire survey was conducted among university students in Beijing, who represent a group with high level of education and a generally high sensitivity to new information. The results show that even this group has limited knowledge about environmental risks and current risk management systems. Further studies are needed to understand the social construction of environmental risks in China and to seek ways to involve the Chinese public in emergency response and risk management.     

The Effect of Corporate Governance on the Use of Enterprise Risk Management: Evidence From Canada

This article examines the use of enterprise risk management (ERM) by companies in Canada, the characteristics that are associated with the use of ERM, what obstacles companies face in implementing ERM, and what role, if any, corporate governance guidelines have played in the decision to adopt ERM. We obtained our data from the responses to a mail survey sent to Canadian Risk and Insurance Management Society members as well as telephone interviews with 19 of the respondents. The results indicate that 31 percent of the sample had adopted ERM and that reasons for adopting ERM include the influence of the risk manager (61 percent), encouragement from the board of directors (51 percent), and compliance with Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) guidelines (37 percent). The major deterrents to ERM were an organizational structure that discourages ERM and an overall resistance to change. Although only about one‐third of companies indicated that they had adopted an ERM approach, evidence was clear that a larger portion of the sample was moving in that direction, as indicated by what changes they had observed in their companies in the past three years. These include the development of company‐wide guidelines for risk management (45 percent), an increased awareness of nonoperational risks by operational risk management personnel and an increased awareness of operational risks by nonoperational risk management personnel (49 percent), more coordination with different areas responsible for risk management (64 percent), and more involvement and interaction in the decision making of other departments. Contrary to what we expected, there was not a significant difference between firms that are listed on the TSE versus those that are not in terms of the propensity to use ERM. However, the fact that 37 percent of firms indicated that the TSE guidelines were influential in their decision to adopt ERM provides some evidence that the guidelines are influencing companies’ risk management strategies.     

Market risks in asset management companies

This paper shows that revenues from a sample of publicly traded US asset management companies carry substantial market risks. Not only does this challenge the academic risk management literature about the predominance of operative risks in asset management, it is also at odds with current practice in asset management firms. Asset managers do not hedge market risks even though these risks are systematically built into the revenue generation process. This is surprising as shareholders would not optimally choose asset management companies as their source of market beta. They rather prefer to participate in alpha generation and fund gathering expertise of investment managers as financial intermediaries. At the very minimum, asset managers need to monitor their ‘fees at risk’ to understand what impact product design, benchmark choice and fee contract design have on revenue volatility. This calls for a much wider interpretation of the risk management function that too narrowly focuses on client risks.     

银行监管和股东属性对银行风险的影响——基于新兴经济体的监管数据分析

银行监管按世界银行的标准划分为总体监管和12类分项监管;银行大股东属性包括政府类、金融企业类、外资类等.总体监管可以有效地降低银行风险;大股东为工业类、金融类企业的银行能够更好地控制风险,而家族类银行的风险程度较高;通过对分项监管进行研究可以发现,加强对所有权、资本要求、经营活动限制、外部审计要求、流动性、存款保险制度、退出及监管效率八个方面的监管可降低银行总体风险,而加强准入、内部管理、资产分类配置、信息披露这四类监管反而会增加银行总体风险.     

保险资金运用全面风险管理——基于机制建设的角度

保险资金运用对保险公司稳健经营具有支柱性作用。为保障实现保险公司经营目标,应充分研究保险资金特性,分析投资资产风险和内部管理风险,建立有效的总体风险管理制度、实施有力的风险具体控制措施。在当前风险管理现实条件下,科学投资决策和运作架构,强化交易流程控制和风险防范监测,完善激励约束机制,以持续推进保险资金运用全面风险管理具有较强的实践意义。     

经济高涨期间的风险特征与治理对策

经济高涨期的金融风险容易为宏观调控部门和微观市场主体所忽视,这是因为资产价格对实体经济的影响具有非对称性,资产价格上升对市场主体的投机行为具有刺激性,并对货币供给具有吸纳效果。风险管理的关口前移比风险的事后处置更为有效,因此在经济高涨期要揭示风险,并采取切实有效措施化解风险。本研究试就经济高位运行期间风险特征,风险隐藏的原因,以及治理对策作一探讨。     

Management of rainfall-related environmental risks in urban area

Rainfall brings urban residents both benefits, such as water resources, but also adverse risks such as flooding. Additionally, it has been recognized that wet weather run-off discharges pollutants

and transfers chemicals and pathogen bacteria into the aquatic ecosystem. This causes not only deterioration of water quality but also environmental pollution risk. Both the flood risk and environmental pollution risk are treated here as ‘rainfall-related environmental risks’. Although these two kinds of risks are quite different in their characteristics, the main purpose of urban wet weather flow management is how to decrease these risks. Furthermore, these risks have a similar background which is concerned with both the urban structure and the life-style of urban residents. Recently, flood disaster has occurred in the Japanese urban area with increasing frequency causing damage due not only to rainfall intensity, but also the vulnerability of urban structures against heavy storms. Although there has been urban area expansion and a decline in substrate permeability, wet weather flow management in Japan is aimed simply to drain the increased run-off volume quickly. As for the management of hazardous chemicals which might be discharged together with rainfall run-off, this has not been implemented sufficiently. It is necessary to develop a methodology to reduce rainfall-related environmental risks in urban wet weather flow management. In this paper, the possible risk management process and control options of rainfall-related risks will be discussed after a summary of both the similar and differing points between inundation risk and environmental pollution risk. As a result, it is deemed necessary to operate a scheme to raise the rainfall-related environmental risk perception level of urban residents to ensure their participation in risk management.     

Some Pitfalls of an Overemphasis on Science in Environmental Risk Management Decisions

This paper addresses the question whether calls for “more” and “better” science will have the intended effect of improving the quality of decisions about environmental risks. There are reasons to be skeptical: key judgment tasks that fundamentally shape many aspects of decisions about environmental risk management lie outside the domain of science. These tasks include making value judgments explicit, integrating facts and values to create innovative alternatives, and constructively addressing conflicts about uncertainty. To bring new specificity to an old debate, we highlight six pitfalls in environmental risk decisions that can occur as the result of an overemphasis on science as the basis for management choices.     

Risk Management—the Revealing Hand

Many believe that the recent emphasis on enterprise risk management function is misguided, especially after the failure of sophisticated quantitative risk models during the global financial crisis. One concern is that top‐down risk management will inhibit innovation and entrepreneurial activities. The authors disagree and argue that risk management should function as a “revealing hand” that identifies, assesses, and mitigates risks in a cost‐efficient way. In so doing, risk management can add value by allowing companies to take on riskier projects and strategies. But to avoid problems encountered in the past, particularly during the recent crisis, risk managers must overcome deep‐seated individual and organizational biases that prevent managers and employees from thinking clearly and analytically about their risk exposures. In this paper, the authors draw lessons from seven case studies about the ways that a corporate risk management function can foster highly interactive dialogues to identify and prioritize risks, help to allocate resources to mitigate such risks, and bring clarity to the value trade‐offs and moral dilemmas that often must be addressed in decisions to manage risks. Developing an effective risk management system requires, first, an agreement about a company's objectives, values, and priorities; second, a clear formulation and communication of the firm's “risk appetite”; and, third, continuous monitoring of a firm's risk‐taking behavior against its declared risk limits. Quantitative risk models should not be the sole—or even the most important—basis for decision‐making. They cannot replace management judgment and are best used to trigger in‐depth discussions among managers and employees about the most important risks faced by the firm and the best ways to respond to them.     

新型农村社会养老保险制度的风险因素及其应对策略探析

建立新型农村社会养老保险制度是国家2009年做出的一项重要举措,在政府的主导下,新型农村社会养老保险制度试点正在如火如荼地进行着。本文对新型农村社会养老保险制度面临的外部和内在风险因素进行了详细剖析,以期为我国新型农村社会养老保险制度的健康发展提供风险管理方面的理论参照,并就此提出了一些应对策略。本文认为,新型农村社会养老保险制度所面临的主要外部风险因素包括农村人口的老龄化和高龄化、城镇化的发展、区域经济发展的不平衡、农村其他养老保障制度的弱化;内在风险因素则包括制度设计风险、个人的筹资风险、财政的支付风险、投资性风险和管理性风险。     

A note on asset management and market risk

The textbook view on risk in asset management companies is summarized by Hull (Risk Management and Financial Institutions, p. 372, 2007): “For an asset manager the greatest risk is operational risk.” Using evidence from various panel regression models, we show that asset management revenues carry substantial market risks, a finding that challenges not only academic risk management literature on the predominance of operative risks, but also the current industry practice of not hedging market risks that are systematically built into the revenue-generation process. For asset management companies to return to an annuity model, these risks need to be managed more actively. Shareholders do not want to be exposed to market beta by investing in asset management companies; they want to participate in these companies’ alpha generation and take advantage of their fund-gathering expertise as financial intermediaries.     

消费金融资产证券化与系统性风险管理研究

在强大的市场需求和金融科技支持下,消费金融公司自正式试点以来呈现良好的发展态势,其中资产证券化成为消费金融公司的重要融资方式。资产证券化在助力消费金融公司增资扩容、改善流动性和提高运营稳健性的同时,也促使消费金融行业风险高并导致诉讼案件的增加。本文基于捷赢个人消费贷款资产支持证券的经验证据,明确了消费金融创新、消费金融风险与金融市场系统性风险管理之间的内在联系,揭示可以通过大数据精准获客、规范催收行为和智能风险防控等措施为消费金融市场发展保驾护航。因此,针对消费金融资产证券化,政府应制定专门的政策法规以强化风险管理,不断完善消费金融资产的监管机制,借助系统性风险管理来规避套利和资金风险,进而促进消费金融资产证券化的稳健有序发展。