期权供应合约下的分销商两阶段式最优订货决策

本文引入期权机制,建立具有一定柔性的两阶段式订购模型;讨论分销商第二阶段的决策,即分销商如何选择期权的执行数量;解决了期权供应合约中一个重要的决策问题。最后,分析了最优期权执行量与四个相关因素的关系。这四个因素为:分销商单位缺货成本,分销商出售产品的单价,期权的执行价格,以及期末分销商手中过剩成品的单位残值。     

An experiment of social learning with endogenous timing

In this paper, we experimentally investigate a social learning model with endogenous timing. Specifically, we focus on a model, in which two subjects are supposed to make a binary decision. One alternative is a safe action with a fixed payoff, while the other alternative is a risky action. The subjects can make their decisions in three stages. The safe action is reversible, but the risky action is not. A subject who delays his decision can observe the decision of the other subject in the earlier stages, and as a result, acquire more information. We show that players do delay their decisions in order to obtain more information. Furthermore, they delay especially when their private information does not particularly support the risky action. We also find evidence which suggests that risk aversion plays an important role in timing decisions, often leading to ex post inefficient outcomes.     

Experimental Study of Firm Bounded Rationality and the Pattern of Trade

This paper describes an experiment and simulation with features of a spatially explicit trading environment. Decision makers repeatedly make decisions about firm headquarters, input demands, and export patterns. A goal of this research is to determine if subjects’ management decisions reflect profit maximization, learning, or heuristic decision making. It also considers what impact decision makers’ bounded rationality has on the aggregate pattern of trade. Results indicate that bounded rationality in the form of learning and heuristic decision making are ubiquitous features of subjects’ decisions. This manifests as under‐reaction to trade‐driver stimuli and produces Trefler's missing trade, suggesting a behavioral basis for this anomaly.     

The dynamic investment and exit decisions of venture capitals

This study develops a continuous time model to examine a complete two-stage decision process for venture capitals (VCs), including investment in the private market at Stage 1 and exit through IPO in the public market at Stage 2. Optimal timings, investment terms, and exit decisions are investigated using the real options game theory under two cases: the same required returns in the public and private markets and a higher required return in the private market than in the public market. Our results indicate that the same required returns in the public and private markets generate an optimal investment decision at Stage 1 without relation to the exit decision in Stage 2. However, when the required return in the private market is higher than that in the public market, the exit decision will influence the investment decision. The size of the initial capital, ownership structure, growth rate and risk of industry, required returns in public and private capital markets, extent of lock-up period price pressure, and transaction costs of financing are important factors influencing the equilibrium results.     

Temporary workers as real options

Firms experiencing or anticipating substantial workforce expansion face increasing pressure to accurately project the costs associated with human asset investments and potential future layoff requirements. With that in mind, the decision whether to take on temporary workers in lieu of hiring permanent employees is a decision that involves significant risk. Traditional valuation methods assume that investments are fully reversible and thus do not capture the idiosyncrasies of workforce management, in which investments are not fully reversible. However, real options theory offers managers the ability to consider irreversibility and to make workforce investment decisions under conditions of minimum uncertainty and maximum flexibility. We present real options theory as an especially useful means for managers to more accurately value human asset investment decisions, achieve expansion and defer commitment until future uncertainties can be at least partially resolved.     

Leverage effect on stochastic volatility for option pricing in Hong Kong: A simulation and empirical study

This paper explores the importance of incorporating the financial leverage effect in the stochastic volatility models when pricing options. For the illustrative purpose, we first conduct the simulation experiment by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method. We then make an empirical analysis by applying the volatility models to the real return data of the Hang Seng index during the period from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. Our results highlight the accuracy of the stochastic volatility models with leverage in option pricing when leverage is high. In addition, the leverage effect becomes more significant as the maturity of options increases. Moreover, leverage affects the pricing of in-the-money options more than that of at-the-money and out-of-money options. Our study is therefore useful for both asset pricing and portfolio investment in the Hong Kong market where volatility is an inherent nature of the economy.     

城市生活垃圾资源化政府最优补贴博弈分析

城市生活垃圾资源化能够带来巨大的经济效益、环境效益与社会效益,是贯彻国家绿色发展理念的必经之路。城市生活垃圾资源化体系的持续发展需要政府补贴作为保障,减少资源化产品与同类非资源化产品的价格差异,弥补相关企业投入产出不匹配的矛盾。本文基于社会福利最大化理论,将政府补贴作为决策变量,构建各利益主体之间的价格博弈模型,确定政府最优补贴额度和其他主体的最优决策,并根据结论提出相关建议。研究表明:要实现整体效益最大化,政府需要在不同环节采取不同的补贴方式与补贴额度。     

Representatives of future generations as promoters of sustainability in corporate decision processes

Current protests of the young generation emphasize that interests of future generations should be taken more into account by policy makers and in corporate decision processes. As organizations contribute to enduring environmental and social problems, they are required to promote sustainability in order to preserve options for the well-being of future generations. However, organizational decision makers often take a short-term perspective and neglect investments in intergenerational justice. Previous theoretical work has acknowledged the importance of representing future generations in today's decision-making processes to adopt a long-term perspective in order to promote intergenerational justice. In a laboratory experiment, we show that appointing representatives of future generations at the organizational level can foster investments in intergenerational justice. Although this outcome is more pronounced when aligned with the representatives' individual incentives, it even persists for a representative who is monetarily penalized for advocating the interests of future generations.     

Firm Experience and Market Entry by Venture Capital Firms (1962–2004)

In this paper, we examine a firm's decision to enter new markets as related to the depth and breadth of its experience and the relative distance of those markets. We situate our discussion and analysis in the context of the venture capital (VC) industry, and examine whether and when US VC firms enter five high‐technology investment markets through first‐ or later‐round investments. This setting allows us to observe both the firms that chose to enter a new market and those that did not, and analyse the antecedents of these decisions. We find that VC firms overall are less likely to enter distant markets; those with broader experience are more likely to make first‐round entries. In addition, VC firms with deeper investment experience are more likely to make first‐round entries in proximate markets and less likely to enter distant markets and make later‐round entries. These results offer interesting implications for the literature on organizational learning and entrepreneurship.     

An Empirical Test of Cognitive Style and Strategic Decision Outcomes*

abstract We examine how cognitive style, as measured by the MBTI, affects strategic decision outcomes. Executives participated in a simulated strategic decision making environment that allowed controlled collection of decision outcomes, including manager decisiveness, decision quality, and perceived effectiveness. We found that iNtuiting/Thinking managers used their intuition to make cognitive leaps based on objective information to craft more decisions of higher quality than other managers. In contrast, Sensing/Feeling types used time to seek socially acceptable decisions, which led to the lowest number of decisions and the lowest perceived effectiveness of all. We found no effect on decisiveness or perceived effectiveness based on a manager's preference for Perceiving or Judging. However, we found that others perceived Extraverted managers as being more effective than Introverted managers when, in fact, the Extraverts were no more decisive than Introverts. Thus, cognitive style influences actual decision outcomes as well as how others perceive one's decision performance.     

Symmetric and asymmetric committees

This paper studies the assignment of decision makers to two committees that make decisions by a simple majority rule. There is an even number of decision makers at each of the various skill levels and each committee has an odd number of members. Surprisingly, even with the symmetric assumptions in the spirit of Condorcet, a symmetric composition of committees is not always optimal. In other words, decision makers with different skill levels should not generally be evenly divided among the committees. However, in the special case of only two skill levels, it is optimal to compose the committees evenly.     

Exploring tax evasion in the context of political uncertainty

We present a model of agents facing the uncertainty of two future forms of government who are able to insure against this uncertainty by hiding funds from taxation. In order to choose whether or not to hide funds from taxation, agents need to know policy choices that each government would make should it come to power. But each government, before it could make its decision, would need to know the choices of the agents who would, for example, produce tax revenues. This informational tension is resolved endogenously. We derive the resulting level of tax evasion in society and the optimal choices made by the potential governments. We examine how changes in governmental structure would affect the level of tax evasion, and how that, in turn, would affect a particular form of capital flight.     

Environmental policy implications of extreme variations in pollutant stock levels and socioeconomic costs

This paper uses a real options approach to examine the impact of abrupt increases in carbon dioxide emissions and pollutant-related socio-economic costs. It derives optimal investment rules in the form of critical values for both pollutant stock levels and social costs, above which environmental policies should be adopted. Moreover, it determines the optimal emissions abatement level. Our analysis extends the methodology of Pindyck (2000) using jump diffusion processes. We show that if the stock of pollutant is subject to extreme variations and the emissions abatement level is chosen exogenously by the policymaker, then lower levels of the pollutant stock are required to trigger policy adoption. A similar, yet more prominent, effect is observed under the assumption that pollutant-related socio-economic costs and benefits are expected to exhibit abrupt changes. However, different results are obtained when we examine simultaneously the two interrelated decisions, namely, the optimal threshold of emissions abatement and the optimal abatement level. In this case, an increase in the size and/or probability of a jump increases the critical values of both pollutant stock levels and socio-economic costs but leads to higher optimal abatement.     

Flexible work arrangements in Greece: a study of employee perceptions

The purpose of this study is twofold: first, to explore factors that affect employees' perceptions towards flexible work options; second, to examine whether the perceived benefits and barriers associated with work flexibility predict one's decision to participate in flexible work arrangements or not. A total of 362 Greek employees participated in the study to determine their attitudes towards flexible work practices. Univariate analyses of variance and logistic regression analysis were conducted with the aim of exploring the research hypotheses. It is found that attitudes towards flexible work options are dependent on gender, sector of employment and prior participation in a flexible work scheme. In general, women, public sector employees and employees who have participated in flexible work arrangements are more likely to perceive more benefits and fewer costs with regard to the use of work flexibility. Further analysis provided evidence that work–life balance benefits are stronger predictors of participation in flexible work practices. These findings suggest that employee-centred organisations that view flexibility as a valuable management tool, should deal with specific barriers that discourage people from taking up flexible work arrangements. Given the dearth of empirical research on work flexibility in Greece, the findings of this study provide the wider academic community with new insights on employees' perceptions of flexible work options.     

A feasibility study of economic and environmental scenarios by means of interactive multiple goal programming

In this paper we describe our experiences with the application of a multiple criteria decision method (IMGP=Interactive Multiple Goal Programming) for the evaluation of economic policy in the Netherlands. An uncommon aspect of this study is that the multiple criteria decision method was not used to find an optimal solution, but rather to test the attainability of a number of contrasting scenarios for economic development. These scenarios are intended to represent the main options for the development of the Netherlands in the eighties. Within the framework of a broader research project (labeled Policy-Oriented Survey of the Future), these scenarios are linked to characteristic political views.     

物流基础设施网络节点的动态选址研究

物流基础设施网络节点的选址决策是一个长期决策,而随着时间的推移,需求和成本模式会随之变化,那么原来的选址决策就可能不是最优的,这时就需要确定一个随时间变化的选址方案,这个过程就是物流基础设施网络节点的动态选址.本文采用时间序列平滑预测法对需求进行预测,并据此用静态选址模型（重心法）得出结论,再运用动态规划技术,找出一个物流基础设施网络节点动态最优选址-再选址方案,使得计划期内的累积总利润现值最大化,并引入预测准确性因子来提高预测的准确性.     

Social Circumstances and Rationality:

Abstract Upon the uniformity in individuals’ decision‐making mechanism rests a great deal of the legitimacy of natural liberty. As we are all equally sovereign (cognitive‐wise), we only strike deals that inevitably make us better off. We all gain from trade and thus, as everyone is better off, so must be the whole of society. But could it be that people are rational yet not equally sovereign? In this paper, we examine Smith's interpretation of rationality, and we find that it is fundamentally a social concept. As such, the manifestation of rationality in individual behavior depends on how sophisticated is individuals’ access to public opinion. Consequently, individuals who are equally self‐interested may face very different sets of options, which are determined by their social circumstances. This difference may suggest that, although all agents may be motivated by the same objective, they cannot be considered as equally sovereign.     

Economic shock and share repurchases

Using the most recent financial crisis as a natural experiment, we examine firm valuation, capital structure adjustment, and takeover deterrence as motives for share repurchases. We find that both overvalued firms and low levered firms are more likely to announce share repurchase programs and buy back more shares following the repurchase announcements. Potential target firms are more likely to announce larger share repurchase programs, but there is no significantly positive relation between the takeover probability and the completion rate. We also find that the decision to announce share repurchase and the decision to actually buy back shares following the repurchase announcement are separate to some extent.     

The optimal choice of internal decision‐making structures in a network industry: A multiproduct monopoly case

Focusing on the role of network compatibility effects between products of a multiproduct monopoly and on the form of consumer expectation for network sizes, we consider the optimal choice of internal decision‐making structures, that is, centralization and decentralization, and its welfare effect in a network industry. We demonstrate that if the degree of network compatibility effects is sufficiently large, the decentralized decision making is socially optimal. However, in the case of consumer ex post expectations, it is optimal for the firm's owners to choose the centralized decision making. We apply the model to the cases of price‐setting games, complementary products, and negative network externalities to examine the optimal choice of internal decision‐making structures.     

Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment

An important feature of postsecondary schooling is the experimentation that accompanies sequential decision making. Specifically, by entering college, a student gains the option to decide at a future time whether it is optimal to remain in college or to drop out, after resolving uncertainty that existed at entrance about factors that affect the return to college. This paper uses data from the Berea Panel Study to quantify the value of this option. The unique nature of the data allows us to make a distinction between “actual” option values and “perceived” option values and to examine the accuracy of students' perceptions.