劳动力流动与收入收敛--一个改进的新古典增长模型及对中国的启示

文章将劳动力的流动性引进新古典增长模型,对于一个拥有一定资本密度的小型开放经济体而言,当它低于稳态时,劳动力的迁出会加快收入收敛的速度,但同时会对整体资本投资产生抑制作用;在收入水平相对较低时,这种抑制作用会超过其正面作用,从而劳动力流动会减缓收入收敛的速度;但从长期来看,随着劳动力流动性的提高,正面作用最终会占据主导地位,从而劳动力的无限自由流动会最终导致收入收敛于稳态.     

Do foreigners replace native immigrants? A panel cointegration analysis of internal migration in Italy

This paper examines the impact of the immigration of foreigners on domestic labor mobility. Since David Card's seminal study on the regional labor market impact of the Mariel Boatlift it is controversial whether domestic labor mobility equilibrates economic conditions across regions. However, there is little or no evidence that natives leave destinations where migrants tend to cluster. In this paper we reconcile the existing evidence by taking another route: we analyze whether the immigration of foreigners replaces domestic mobility from poor to rich regions. We focus on Italy, which is characterized by large North-South wage and unemployment differentials, and apply panel cointegration methods. The main finding is that, conditional on unemployment and wage differentials, the presence of foreign workers in the labor force of the destination regions discourages internal labor mobility significantly. As a consequence, spatial correlation studies which use the variance of the foreigner share across regions for identifying the wage and employment effects of immigration, tend to understate the actual impact of foreign immigration.     

MORE COSTLY OR MORE PRODUCTIVE? MEASURING CHANGES IN COMPETITIVENESS IN MANUFACTURING ACROSS REGIONS IN CHINA

Using a newly constructed industry-by-region dataset based on China's two censuses, this paper examines the trend of average labor compensation (ALC), labor productivity (ALP) and unit labor cost (ULC) in 28 manufacturing industries across 29 provinces in China for 1995 and 2004. Findings show that at the aggregate level, ALP growth was generally faster than that of ALC and hence resulted in a significant decline in ULC for all regions in China. Furthermore, less developed regions exhibited stronger productivity growth relative to labor cost increase than more developed regions, thus leading to a convergence in ULC levels across provinces and regions over this period. Comparing individual industries, we observe a substantial variation in growth rates and convergence trends across regions. Logit regression analysis confirms that labor-intensive industries are more likely to converge in ALP, ALC and ULC, whereas capital/skill-intensive industries tended to diverge. This finding is further confirmed by estimating a convergence regression, which suggests that misallocation of resources due to market imperfections or institutional barriers is likely to be the main factor behind the divergence of ULC.     

Progressive taxation and human capital as determinants of inflation persistence

In this study, we introduce progressive taxation and human capital differences across productive sectors into a typical monetary policy game. The objective of this work is to reveal the potential short-run effects of these two typical features of economic growth on inflation dynamics. In our framework, such features act as frictions of labor mobility across sectors. We show that an increased progressivity of taxation lowers the diffusion of shocks, and in turn increases inflation persistence. Moreover, the dispersion of human capital across sectors acts as a barrier to labor mobility and thereby increasing inflation inertia through the same channel. We also empirically verify these findings by employing panel data analysis in a sample of 28 OECD countries.     

Employee Profit-sharing and Labor Extraction in a Classical Model of Distribution and Growth

This article sets out a classical model of economic growth in which the distribution of income features the possibility of profit-sharing with workers, as firms choose periodically between two labor-extraction compensation strategies. Workers are homogeneous with regard to labor power, and firms choose to compensate them with either only a conventional wage or a share of profits on top of this conventional wage. Empirical evidence shows that labor productivity (i.e. labor extraction) in profit-sharing firms is higher than labor productivity in non-sharing firms. The frequency distribution of labor-extraction employee compensation strategies and labor productivity across firms is time-variant, being driven by satisficing imitation dynamics from which we derive two significant results. First, heterogeneity in labor-extraction compensation strategies across firms, and hence earnings inequality across workers can be a stable long-run equilibrium outcome. Second, although convergence to a long-run equilibrium may occur with either a falling or increasing proportion of profit-sharing firms, the share of net profits in income and the rates of net profit, capital accumulation and economic growth nevertheless all converge to the highest possible long-run equilibrium values.     

劳动地理集中、产业空间与地区收入差距

本文基于新经济地理学模型,采用中国1990年、2000年和2007年的普查数据计算了31个省市的劳动集中度,并以此解释产业空间和地区收入差距的发展变化.文章发现:(1)人力资本集中是产业集聚形成的重要因素,人力资本集中度上升会提高地区的收入水平;(2)各省市的人力资本分布不均衡并有可能导致地区收入差距的进一步扩大.本文认为,人力资本存量差异是地区收入差距拉大的重要原因,促进劳动力充分流动、加快推进城市化建设是有效的应对之策.     

中国增长动力切换、时空演变与“双门槛”测度 ——来自省际层面的经验证据

我国经济正处于增速换挡的增长动力切换关键时期,逐步迈向高质量发展阶段。本文基于2000—2022年中国省际层面的面板数据,聚焦研究中国经济增长动力切换问题,探讨了经济增长动力切换的时空演变与“双门槛”效应。结果表明：(1)生产性劳动、研发性劳动、生产投入以及研发投入显著地促进了我国经济增长;(2)中国增长动力切换经历了“生产性劳动与生产投入”、“研发性劳动与生产投入”以及“研发性劳动与研发投入”三个阶段;(3)中国经济增长动力时空演变存在区域异质性和时段异质性,不同区域和时段的经济增长动力存在显著差异;(4)中国经济增长动力切换具有外部制约条件,存在“双门槛”效应。同时,采用主实验加入控制变量前后对比、双边缩尾、排除新冠肺炎疫情影响和倾向得分匹配等方法进行稳健性检验,发现实证结果具有稳健性。本研究有助于理解经济增长动力切换的机制、路径与制约条件,为制定相应的政策和战略提供参考依据。     

The excise tax effects of the property tax

This paper constructs a theory of how differences across regions in property tax rates affect product prices and factor prices. For a model where labor and capital are perfectly mobile between regions, it is shown that consumers residing in different regions face the same nontraded good prices, even when property tax rates differ across regions.     

Growth in regions

We use a newly assembled sample of 1,528 regions from 83 countries to compare the speed of per capita income convergence within and across countries. Regional growth is shaped by similar factors as national growth, such as geography and human capital. Regional convergence rate is about 2 % per year, comparable to that between countries. Regional convergence is faster in richer countries, and countries with better capital markets. A calibration of a neoclassical growth model suggests that significant barriers to factor mobility within countries are needed to account for the evidence.     

The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

This article shows that global capital markets cannot, by themselves, achieve net transfers of financial capital between countries and that both the integration of global financial markets and the integration of global goods markets are needed to achieve net transfers of capital between countries. Frictions (barriers to mobility) in one or both of these markets can impede net transfers of capital between countries, produce the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) results and prevent real interest rates from being equalized across countries. Moreover, there is empirical evidence that barriers to the mobility of goods and services are an important obstacle to international capital mobility.     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

中国产业结构演进中存在“结构红利”吗——基于动态偏离份额分析法的实证研究

本研究采用动态偏离份额分析法,分析中国三次产业和工业产业内部劳动和资本两种要素在行业间的配置情况,以确定在三次产业与工业内部劳动和资本转移中是否存在"结构红利"现象。结果表明:三次产业结构变迁过程中要素流动存在阶段性的"结构红利"现象;工业内部结构变迁过程中要素流动存在"结构负利"现象。综合来看,劳动从第一产业流向二、三产业,提高了整个社会的劳动生产率,资本向第二产业中生产率较低的行业流动,降低了工业内部全要素生产率的增长。     

International capital flows and convergence in the neoclassical growth model

To analyze how capital mobility affects economic growth and convergence, this paper will use the analytical solution to the neoclassical growth model with a constant saving rate, beginning with the closed-economy Solow growth model. An introduction to international capital flows will follow. In an open economy, free capital mobility assures an instantaneous convergence in interest rates that, under a perfect competence situation, implies the instantaneous convergence in income levels among homogeneous countries. Taking into account this question and to reconcile these results with empirical evidence, that is, with the gradual convergence observed, the assumption is introduced that in spite of free capital mobility, there are international credit restrictions. In this case, we will show how the rate of convergence depends on the international capital inflows received. The authors would like to thank Maria Isabel Abradelo for her help in translating this paper.     

中国工业结构变化与技术进步率增长研究——对中国1985—2009年工业“结构红利假说”的检验

要素流动推动着经济结构的变化,并且影响着技术进步水平的增长。在估计37个行业的技术进步与资本存量的基础上,本文利用偏离一份额法分析了工业结构变化的技术进步率增长效应。研究发现我国各行业之间的技术进步率在不断改善,资本和劳动力的流动较明显倾向于第二、三类产业;资本要素对技术进步率增长的贡献主要来源于内部增长效应;劳动力变化对技术进步的影响较大,但是主要依靠内部增长效应来促进技术进步率的增长,其中劳动力的流动对第三类产业具有显著的“结构红利”。     

Economic development, growth of human capital, and the dynamics of the wage structure

In this paper I elucidate the sources of growth of human capital in the course of economic development. On the supply side (Section 1) I include the growth of family income, urbanization, the demographic transition, and the rising cost of time.The supply side alone cannot explain the continuous growth of human capital as it implies a self limiting decline in rates of return below those in alternative investments. Such declines are offset by growing demands for human capital in the labor market. Growth of demand for labor skills is a function of capital accumulation and of technological changes. Evidence on this hypothesis is summarized in Section 2 and on supply responses to growing demand for human capital in Section 3. Changes in the skill and wage structures in the labor market are an important part of the evidence.The reciprocal relation between economic growth and the growth of human capital is likely to be an important key to sustained economic growth. A caveat applies to indirect effects of economic growth on family instability, which may lead to a deterioration of childhood human capital in some sectors of society.     

Regional clusters of innovative activity in Europe: are social capital and geographical proximity key determinants?

Finding proper policy instruments to promote productivity growth features prominently in the Europe 2020 strategy and is central in many national as well as European policy debates. In view of the increased mobility of high-skilled workers in Europe, ongoing globalization and increased interregional and international co-operation, location patterns of innovative activity may be subject to drastic changes. A proper understanding of location patterns of innovative outputs can enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of national and European placed-based innovation policies. Building on the literature on the knowledge production function, the aim of this article is to explain the observed differences in the production of innovative outputs across European regions. Our main research question is whether geographical proximity and social capital are important vehicles of knowledge transmission in Europe. Several other variables are used to control for structural differences across European regions. We find support for the hypothesis that both social capital and geographical proximity are important factors in explaining the observed differences in the production of innovative output across European regions.     

A new impetus for endogenous growth: R&D offshoring via virtual labor mobility

We develop a simple North–South model of quality ladders to show that the virtual mobility of labor across time zones, facilitated by the advance in communication technology, can raise the endogenous growth rate of the world economy. The unique balanced growth rate is increasing in the endowments of skilled labor in both countries and decreasing in the rate of impatience. Moreover, we find that partial R&D offshoring to the South has initially a negative effect on the level of skilled wages in the North, but this is compensated for by its positive effect on the growth rate in both North and South.     

Why peg? The role of capital mobility and financial intermediation

Many economists argue that the growth of international capital mobility has made the maintenance of pegged exchange rates more costly, forcing developing states to choose alternative arrangements. But some states do not simply abandon pegged exchange rates as their exposure to capital mobility rises. Some states abandon pegs long before a crisis can erupt, while others maintain pegs until the speculative pressures became unbearable. Why, in an environment of growing capital mobility, do some states maintain pegs longer than others do? One reason is that the more that bank lending dominates investment in a country, the more likely that state is to hold on to a pegged exchange rate. When banks have accumulated significant amounts of foreign debt they lobby for exchange rate stability. In a bank‐dominated financial system, a concentrated banking sector can organize easily and use its crucial role in the economy to exert influence over economic policy. This article presents new evidence from statistical tests on 61 developing countries that confirm that states with deeper banking systems are more likely to peg their exchange rates, in spite of growing capital mobility.     

Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility: calculations and policy implications

This paper sets forth a procedure for calculating the annual efficiency gains from alternative changes in existing international immigration restrictions and evaluates the impact of wage rate changes on nonmigrating labor. Data on US gross national product (GNP)/capita across countries are used to infer differences in the marginal productivity both between countries and across major world trading areas. The method assumes that the worldwide labor supply is fixed, that full employment occurs in all regions, and that differences in labor's marginal product across regions arise because of barriers to inward mobility of labor in high-wage countries. When these barriers are removed, labor is assumed to be reallocated and efficiency gains occur. Results of the calculations suggest large gains from the removal of global immigration controls which, in most cases, exceed existing worldwide GNP generated in the presence of labor mobility restrictions. A large portion of the gain is accounted for by labor migration between the aggregated rich and poor countries. Over 40% of the total potential gain is realized when only 10% of the wage differential is eliminated, suggesting that small changes in global migration restrictions have large marginal effects. Wage rates increase in labor-losing regions and decline in labor-receiving regions, dramatizing the incentives for labor unions in high-wage countries to oppose liberalization of immigration restrictions. These results suggest large potential worldwide efficiency gains from a move toward an international labor market free of immigration controls. This issue may be far more important to the North-South debate than a focus on initiatives such as commodity price stabilization, relaxation of trade protection, or increased aid flows.     

户籍门槛、流动性差异与地区收入差距

按学历、技能设置的落户条件在一定程度上强化了不同人力资本禀赋劳动力的流动性差异,这种流动性差异深刻的影响着人力资本的区域间分布和现代部门产业的空间格局,从而为解释地区收入差距的形成与扩大提供了新的视角。本文将户籍门槛变量引入新经济地理模型,并利用数值模拟技术分析在不同水平的户籍门槛、贸易成本、人力资本份额下,不同技能劳动力的空间选择及地区收入差距变动。研究结果表明,需求与供给效应的彼此强化使得低技能劳动力与高技能劳动力在同一区域聚集,但因技能而设置的户籍门槛作为分散力阻碍了低技能劳动力的空间聚集过程。伴随区域一体化推进,贸易成本不断降低,高技能劳动力将在发达地区高度集聚,而如果户籍门槛保持不变,低技能劳动力将均匀地分布在两个区域。高技能劳动力的地理集中是导致地区收入差距持续扩大的主要原因,降低贸易成本能够有效缩小地区收入差距,而降低户籍门槛或提高人力资本份额均使地区差距变得更大。本文进一步回顾了改革开放以来中国出现的劳动力回流现象、人力资本的迁移趋势、以及改革开放以来地区收入差距的收敛和发散趋势,发现经验数据与理论命题的结论基本相符。