看法差异、信息不对称、卖空限制与价格形成

本文构建了一个有卖空限制的指令驱动的市场交易模型，在模型中考虑了交易者之间的信息不对称和看法差异，应用博弈均衡的分析方法，求解模型的均衡结果。通过对均衡结果的分析表明：市场均衡是知情与未知情者之间的一个混同均衡，均衡报价是未知情买卖者之间分配交易剩余的结果，其分配依据是买卖双方各自不能实现交易的相对风险。市场均衡时，一定存在正的买卖价差，价差由限价指令的执行风险补偿项和逆向选择风险补偿项构成。执行风险补偿项是资产分散度指标的减函数，是知情者比例的增函数，并且随交易者看法分散程度的提高而增大。逆向选择风险补偿项是资产分散度指标和知情者比例的增函数，并且随着未知情者对信息掌握程度的提高而减小。     

包含多个知情交易者的可甄别交易流模型研究

本文扩展Corb（1994）分析框架,研究包含多个知情交易者的可甄别交易流模型．通过数值解的方法求得理性预期均衡。研究表明,线性理性预期均衡与相应的卡尔类型模型的均衡是相同的。在非线性理性预期均衡中,与卡尔类型模型相比,知情交易者的期望利润更低．市场流动性更高;当市场上不知情交易者的数量较少以及知情交易者的私人信息准确度不高时．知情交易者的交易强度更大,价格更有效,反之,知情交易者的交易强度会更小。     

内部交易者的交易行为分析

本文以 Kyle的单期模型为基础 ,通过假设内部交易者无法获得对交易风险资产流动价值的完全信息及市场无法达到标准形式的半强式有效 ,而是一种弱式有效 ,重新分析了内部交易者的交易策略和最终收益 ,从而将 Kyle模型做了推广。本文得出的结论是 ,当内部交易者观测到的信号对交易资产真实流动价值存在扭曲时 ,内部交易者的交易行为变得更为复杂 ;弱式的市场有效性条件和流动价值信号的扭曲可加强内部交易者的信息垄断地位 ,为其相应的策略交易带来更多的收益。     

一种网络交易诚信风险的判别策略模型

网络交易是一种典型的陌生人社会,其远程性、主体复杂性和虚拟性使其诚信风险比实体市场更加突出,网络交易诚信风险已成为阻碍消费者在线购物的关键因素.文章主要采用博弈论的方法,探讨在完全信息和不完全信息条件下,网络交易者诚信风险判别策略模型,得出交易者诫信风险判别主要依据是交易机率与信息透明度的大小的结论,对网络交易风险的控制和预警等研究方向具有一定的借鉴作用.     

程序化交易系统的检测与优化体系

随着国内金融市场的不断发展与完善,程序化交易变得越来越受关注。目前国内大多数程序化交易者并没有建立起一个完备的检测与优化体系,采取的测试方式大多为简单的历史数据回溯测试,这容易导致对历史数据曲线的过度拟合。论文构造出一个较完整的程序化交易系统的检测与优化体系,依次分为六个步骤:设计交易策略,交易策略程式化,验证性检测,交易系统最优化,推进的样本外测试,实战交易。通过此体系可以分析交易模型的风险与收益水平及策略的稳定性,并得出健全的交易策略需具备的特点:获利相对均匀分布、具有相对稳定的盈亏次数比率、具有连续且平滑的最优化参数集、适应不同类型的市场且风险可控。     

基于博弈论的我国碳市场监管制度研究

碳市场作为一个具有环境属性的新兴市场,在推进社会生态文明建设上具有重要的地位,但是因为没有辅之完善健全的监督管理措施,碳交易市场的发展速度受到了阻碍。文章运用博弈论的知识构建碳交易市场中交易者与政府监管部门的博弈模型,进行混合策略分析,得出纳什均衡解。结果表明均衡解与违规收益、机会成本、监管成本和政府处罚有关。为了保证碳市场的健康与安全地运转,文章从政府监管成本、交易者机会成本、违规行为、处罚力度4个方面提出建议,规范碳交易市场的监督制度,保证碳市场的良好交易氛围。     

双边道德风险条件下的收益激励与信息租金——基于有信息委托人的视角

文章特征化了一个在投资能力方面具有私人信息的委托人,和一个在努力水平上具有私人信息的代理人,在联合生产产品时所面临的双边道德风险问题。为研究结构性信息不对称对收益激励的影响,建立了双边道德风险奈件下的收益激励模型。研究结果表明,在风险中性的委托人和严格风险规避的代理人联合生产产品时,激励努力的次优契约可以达到,只是不能为代理人提供完全的保险;在双边道德风险条件下,隐藏信息不再是有信息的局中人的最优策略,而私人信息的交换与共享可以促成次优转移均衡的实现,这说明和单边的信息不对称造成的单边道德风险相比较,结构性的信息不对称并不一定使得双边道德风险问题更严重。     

知情交易的识别与测度的文献综述

知情交易是指由于市场中存在着非对称信息，一部分交易者利用自己所掌握的私有信息所进行的交易，对于知情交易的识别和测度已成为一个热门问题。本文从买卖价差，序贯交易模型，成交量，超常收益四个方面对已有的知情交易的识别和测度的文献进行了分类和总结。     

并购交易中的信息传递机制研究——基于业绩承诺的视角

由于并购具有金额大与标的资产质量难以辨别等特点，如何在并购交易中降低交易风险一直是学术界持续关注的话题。文章以中小板和创业板公司2015年至2016年审核通过的并购事件为样本，从业绩承诺视角探讨市场对于并购重组交易契约中信息传递机制的看法。研究表明，市场会对业绩承诺这一信息传递机制予以积极反应，业绩承诺越乐观，并购方在公告期间的超额收益越大。进一步研究发现，在非关联并购、投资者专业化程度较低或财务信息更稳健的情况下，业绩承诺所带来的财富效应更明显。文章以业绩承诺为切入点，为学术界了解如何降低并购交易中的信息风险提供了重要的视角与经验证据。     

基于流动性风险的行为资产定价模型研究

从行为金融的研究视角，本研究建立了一种简洁的流动性风险均衡模型。本文将流动性因素纳入股票横截面收益的关键影响因素，构建了基于流动性风险调整的行为资产定价模型，利用欧拉方程确定了模型均衡价格。在一般均衡框架下。本文揭示了买卖差价、交易频率和市场效率等因素以流动性偏好形式对资产价格的影响机理。在连续双向拍卖交易机制下，本文利用仿真检验了均衡价格的形成过程．结果能够解释股票溢价等金融异象。     

噪声交易与股票流动性:兼对“正(负)相关”理论的评析及“流动性黑洞”现象的解释

噪声交易与股票流动性都是行为金融研究的重点，但二者的相关性问题学界一直未能达成一致，"正负之争"不休。文章改进Kyle （1985）的假设，构建符合中国实际的流动性数理模型，模型表明：噪声交易与流动性负相关，且相关关系受信息不对称、风险厌恶度等因素的影响。进一步，文章以中国沪深300指数的成分股数据证实了"噪声交易-流动性"关系，发现其存在显著的月历效应和市场行情效应。文章对"正（负）相关"理论进行了梳理和评析，为争论的清晰化、明朗化做出贡献。     

证券市场信息反馈理论浅析

本文借助Glosten/Milgrom(1985)的信息模型来分析在证券市场存在非对称信息的情况下,做市商为避免在和知情交易者进行交易时由于信息的不完整性时产生损失,而确立一个股票买卖价格的差额。做市商通过观察交易者的交易委托类型,借助贝叶斯定理来学习信息的反馈,而股票的真正价值会随着交易过程的延续最终体现在股票的价格中。该模型的研究为我国做市商制度的发展和完善提供了必要的理论依据。     

Trader Participation in Disclosure: Implications of Interactions with Management

Technological advances are creating a shift in the information disclosure environment allowing more investors to interact with management. We examine three key levels of trader-management interaction to assess the accuracy of traders' market-tested value estimates and resulting market price. These data require an engaging experiment and a complex, contextually rich asset, which we create by playing a popular gaming app before the experiment. Participants view financial information, ask management questions, estimate value, and trade. We find that receiving non-personalized question responses improves trader estimates of value and market price efficiency relative to when traders ask questions but do not expect a response. This occurs because traders exert more effort estimating value and trading. However, receiving personalized versus non-personalized responses harms value estimates and market efficiency. This occurs because traders receiving personalized responses fixate on the interaction with management, dividing their attention and diverting it away from valuing and trading the asset.     

Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We use transactions data to explore the magnet effects of price limit rules on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). When limit hits are imminent, stock prices are found to approach the price limits at faster rates, with higher trading intensity and larger price variation, supporting the magnet effect hypothesis of Subrahmanyam [Subrahmanyam, A., 1994. Circuit breakers and market volatility: A theoretical perspective. Journal of Finance, 49, 237–254.]. Moreover, when stock prices approach the floor limits, we observe lower than normal market conditions’ trading volume and trade size but a wider spread. The panic selling psychology of individual investors for fear of illiquidity and the strategic trading decisions of discretionary traders during periods prior to price limit hits at the floors are conjectured as possible explanations for the observed price behaviors. Post-limit-hit analysis reveals evidence of delayed price discovery at the ceiling limit but price reversal at the floor.     

Risk management with interdependent choice

Risks faced by traders from price movements are sometimes magnifiedby the actions of other traders. Risk-management systems whichneglect this feature may give a seriously misleading pictureof the true risks. The hazards arising from this potential blindspotare at their most dangerous when the prevailing conventionalwisdom lulls traders into a false sense of security on the attractivenessof a trading position. The efforts of one trader to reversehis trade makes more acute the need to follow suit on the partof others. For markets dominated by traders with short timehorizons, such interdependence leads to exaggerated price movements.Estimates of 'value at risk' which recognize such interdependenceof actions can diverge substantially from those given by conventionaltechniques.     

Nonlinear and time-varying risk premia

Facing the puzzling risk-return trade-off, this paper proposes a new model for risk premia to capture nonlinear and time-varying features under the influence of trading volume. Using high-frequency data for the US stock market in Wharton Research Data Services' Trade and Quote database, our empirical findings suggest a significant nonlinear and time-varying contemporary relationship between return and realized volatility, ranging from positive to negative with an up-down-up pattern, summarized as follows. First, the contemporary relationship is positive on inactive trading days when the trading volume is smaller than usual, in which case traders may face no new information or event uncertainty. Second, the relationship is significantly negative when the trading volume is large on active trading days, in which case traders may be overconfident and behave in a risk-seeking fashion. Third, the risk premium tends toward zero during extremely abnormal trading days. Finally, low and high levels of trading volume have asymmetrical influences on risk premia, with a larger absolute value of risk premia for high levels of trading volume. Furthermore, the nonlinear changing autocorrelation of returns is insignificant from zero on normal trading days and most likely different from zero on abnormal trading days. These results provide explanations for the conflicts between financial theoretic and empirical studies.     

Experience and Confidence in an Internet‐Based Asset Market Experiment

The experience effect in asset markets is one that was thought to be settled. As subjects gained experience with the interface and each other, they typically exhibit fewer instances of mispricing and at lower magnitudes. But questions regarding trading experience are not easy to address in the lab with the typical subject pool since the kind of experience one can typically generate in the lab is experience with the experimental environment itself—not with external environments. However, in virtual worlds asset markets are highly evolved, providing a subject pool with skilled and experienced traders that can be accessed via the Internet. This study compares experimental asset markets with participants recruited from virtual world trading groups to experimental markets with participants recruited from the virtual world at large. I further examine trader performance and trading behavior within markets. The findings indicate that asset markets with virtual world participants recruited from trading groups are more prone to exhibit bubbles than are markets with virtual world participants recruited at large. Within condition, experienced traders are less likely to follow fundamentals and more likely to engage in strategies that result in loss of earnings. Excess confidence is rejected as an explanation for this pattern, as confidence is found to be related to higher earnings and fundamental value trading strategies.     

Voluntary Disclosure and Informed Trading*

This study analyzes the impact of informed trading on voluntary corporate disclosure in the presence of two factors: the cost of disclosure and the value of a manager's informedness. In the absence of both factors, informed trading has no impact on disclosure even when traders are not certain whether the manager has information. When disclosure is costly, informed trading serves as a free substitute for the disclosure of favorable information, and reduces disclosure. Surprisingly, when the manager's informedness is valuable for the firm, informed trading can also increase disclosure. Traders can discover unfavorable information about the firm, so managers with such information have less incentive to pool with uninformed managers and disclose to show that they are informed. The study also demonstrates that informed trading can have either a positive or a negative effect on firm value by crowding in or crowding out information production in the firm. These results hold for general information structures and are robust if traders can choose how much information can be acquired.     

基于国际化视野的融资融券业务思考

文章通过对2008—2012年间券商经营收入的研究分析和券商主要业务的收入比较,以揭示目前融资融券业务在券商经营中的地位。并通过分析融资融券业务收入占券商经营总收入的比重变化趋势,结合日本、美国等成熟市场数据来预测未来融资融券业务的发展趋势和前景,并提出一些政策上的建议。