业绩承诺的价值与定增并购价格偏离——基于B-S期权定价模型

近年来,业绩承诺被广泛运用于定增并购中,其作用主要在于保护投资者和激励标的公司。现有研究中,基于业绩承诺的存在与否、及其部分参数的设定所产生的经济影响在理论层面及实证层面得到初步验证,但是这部分研究的出发点不够全面,衡量业绩承诺产生经济影响的真实路径,依然需要进一步探索。文章选取2011年至2019年7月A股上市公司签订了业绩承诺的定增并购事件为样本,基于B-S期权定价模型,测算以期权形式存在的业绩承诺价值,并探讨该价值高低对定增并购价格偏离的影响及其路径。研究结果表明:业绩承诺价值越大,并购溢价越高,该影响在股份支付的情况下更明显;业绩承诺价值越大,定增折价越低,该影响在非股份支付情况下更明显。文章从新颖而全面的视角衡量了业绩承诺的价值,独特地解释了定增并购价格偏离形成的机理,为定增并购多方设置更合理的交易价格提供了新的思路,也为监管机构完善定增并购交易制度提供了理论支持。     

《会计监管风险提示第8号——商誉减值》的政策效果研究——基于业绩补偿承诺的视角

新一轮并购潮以来,由"高溢价、高承诺"的不合理业绩补偿承诺导致的商誉减值"爆雷"事件不断发生,引起了监管部门的关注。证监会于2018年11月发布《会计监管风险提示第8号——商誉减值》(以下简称"8号文"),旨在规范商誉减值会计确认、计提时点及监管细节,并明令禁止故意以业绩承诺期为由不计提或跨期计提商誉减值的行为。文章通过双重差分法研究发现:"8号文"有助于降低签订了业绩补偿承诺上市公司的商誉减值水平,加强媒体对签订业绩补偿承诺公司的关注与监督,但存在2018年突击计提商誉减值的现象。此外,"8号文"能够降低上市公司对不合理业绩补偿承诺的使用倾向,降低并购溢价并提高长期并购绩效。最后,签订了业绩补偿承诺的并购企业在"8号文"之后没有显著提升盈余管理水平和股价崩盘风险。文章总体表明,"8号文"有助于上市公司在并购过程中合理使用业绩补偿承诺,降低商誉减值水平。但从长远来看,仍然需要从完善业绩补偿承诺设计机制、健全法律法规约束等角度遏制商誉减值的潜在风险。     

上市公司并购重组中业绩承诺的风险研究——以新日恒力并购博雅干细胞为例

业绩承诺机制已成为上市公司重大资产重组的重要组成部分,因为它对维护上市公司和投资者并购中的利益具有积极作用。但是,随着上市公司并购的增加,业绩承诺中存在越来越多的问题。文章以新日恒力并购博雅干细胞为例展开阐述和分析,提出建议,为资本市场提供参考。     

行业锦标赛激励与并购业绩承诺达标程度

高管的行业竞赛心理不仅会影响其并购决策行为,还会刺激其关注企业并购整合及并购业绩承诺的履行情况和达标程度。以2011-2019年中国A股上市公司签订业绩承诺协议的并购事件作为研究对象,考察行业锦标赛激励对标的公司业绩承诺达标程度的影响。研究发现行业锦标赛激励与业绩承诺达标程度显著正相关,表明高管受到的行业锦标赛激励效应越强,越有动机和压力督促标的公司提高业绩承诺达标率。进一步研究发现,真实盈余管理在行业锦标赛激励与业绩承诺达标程度之间起到中介作用。行业锦标赛激励对业绩承诺达标程度的提升作用在并购方是非国有企业、并购支付方式为股份支付、承诺补偿方式为股份补偿的情形下更显著。     

海外并购提升了企业的创新质量吗?:一个被调节的中介模型

中国企业的海外并购带有明显的技术寻求特征。然而,受制于自身较弱的吸收能力以及国内不太健全的知识产权保护制度,中国企业这种大规模的、充满风险的海外并购是否提升了企业的创新质量?这其中的影响机制又是什么?文章从动态能力的视角,以中国2011～2019年147笔海外并购交易为样本,采用多时点双重差分与因果步骤法,构建了海外并购与创新质量的有调节的中介效应模型。研究结果显示,海外并购显著提升了企业的创新质量,吸收能力在海外并购与创新质量之间具有显著的中介效应,整合程度与知识产权保护对吸收能力的中介效应具有积极的调节作用。文章的研究为海外并购对创新质量的影响提供了可靠的经验证据,并揭示了其中的作用机制,有利于增进对新兴市场企业海外并购与创新质量关系的理解。     

业绩承诺变更会影响企业研发费用操纵吗?

以 2011-2022年A股并购业绩承诺事件为研究对象,探讨了业绩承诺变更对研发费用操纵的影响。研究发现:业绩承诺变更加剧了上市公司研发费用操纵现象,且这一影响是通过激发高管机会主义、降低商业信用融资能力实现的;异质性检验发现,业绩承诺变更对研发费用操纵的影响在关联并购事件、主并方为国有企业、以及分析师关注程度较低的企业中更为显著;动机和经济后果检验发现,业绩承诺变更主要通过激发高管的政策迎合动机提高了研发费用操纵水平,而该行为使得企业获取了更多的税收优惠和政府补助。     

浅议公司兼并收购——以汉能并购为例

根据Wind统计,2017年我国并购重组交易规模高达3.3万亿,交易规模持续增长的过程中也暴露出并购中存在的风险和问题。作为公司的重大交易活动,并购可以为公司创造持续增长动力,但失败的并购活动也会使得公司陷入生存危机。文章将从并购的类型、动因和风险出发,并以汉能并购为例,为资本市场中的并购提供理论和实践上的启示。     

资本市场开放能够降低企业债务违约风险吗?:基于“沪深港通”交易制度的经验证据

文章采用2009～2020年沪深A股上市公司数据,利用“沪深港通”交易制度实施这一准自然实验,实证检验了资本市场开放能否降低企业的债务违约风险及其内在机制。研究发现,资本市场开放显著降低了标的企业的债务违约风险;机制检验结果表明,资本市场开放通过提升公司治理水平和改善企业信息环境降低企业的债务违约风险;进一步研究发现,资本市场开放对债务违约风险的缓解作用在债务违约风险较高企业和十大活跃成交股的企业中表现得更加显著。文章研究结果表明,资本市场开放能够有效治理债务违约风险,在一定程度上为企业的健康运行提供了支撑。     

基于业绩承诺到期视角的并购绩效研究——以华录百纳为例

签订业绩承诺已成为我国市场上收购方进行高溢价并购时保障自身和中小股东利益的一种方式。但随着业绩承诺的到期,出现了"业绩失诺"以及上市公司业绩下滑的现象,人们又重新开始思考业绩承诺带来的影响。鉴于此,本文以华录百纳为案例研究对象,通过因子分析法评价华录百纳在业绩承诺到期后的2016—2019年业绩变化情况。结果显示,业绩承诺到期后华录百纳的业绩出现了明显的下滑,通过进一步研究分析导致业绩变化的原因,并提出相关改进措施。     

城乡一体化视角农村土地承包经营权有序流转市场交易机制研究——以苏州市为例

文章以苏州市为例,在农地承包经营权市场交易内涵与目标基础上,分析了农村土地流转的主要问题。文章从交易市场信息平台与运行机制建立,交易对象的评估与信息披露,交易主体的准入与监控,交易后期的风险保障机制四个角度进行了市场交易机制构建,以期为农村土地承包经营权有序流转,推进城乡统一化进程提供借鉴。     

Targets' Accounting Conservatism and the Gains from Acquisition*

We present evidence on the effects of target firms' accounting conservatism in a merger and acquisition transaction. Conservatism is distinct from other accounting or accrual quality constructs examined in prior work. Its unique features can lead to potential benefits for both the targets and the acquirers. The use of conservatism by targets reduces acquirers' risks of acquiring underperforming assets or overpaying for well-performing assets. In addition, targets' conservatism results in greater production of verifiable information that can help the acquirers better estimate and realize synergies of the combined firm. Consistent with these arguments, we find that firms with greater accounting conservatism are more likely to receive a bid. We also find that targets' conservatism increases the deal premium and the announcement returns of both the targets and the acquirers, respectively. Overall, these results indicate that conservatism provides benefits to both sellers and buyers of equity in an acquisition transaction.     

Acquirer Internal Control Weaknesses in the Market for Corporate Control

This paper examines how disclosures regarding internal controls, required by sections 302 and 404 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX), affect the market for corporate control. We hypothesize that acquirers with internal control weaknesses (ICWs) make suboptimal acquisition decisions based on poor‐quality information generated by their ineffective controls over financial reporting. We expect that such acquirers will be more likely to misestimate the value of their targets or the potential synergies from mergers, thereby overpaying for completed deals. Using a treatment sample of acquisitions made by acquirers that have disclosed ICWs and two matched control samples without ICW disclosures, we document that ICW acquirers experience a substantially more negative market response to acquisition announcements and have lower future performance than the two matched control samples without ICW disclosures. Overall, our results suggest that ineffective internal controls hinder decision making related to mergers and acquisitions (M&A).     

二手房交易中中介机构的信息屏障及其破解对策

目前房地产中介公司已成为二手房交易的主要渠道,许多中介公司利用买卖主体的信息不对称,有意制造信息屏障,获取额外收益。了解中介公司设置信息屏障的方式方法十分必要,它可以帮助买卖主体有效规避交易风险,减少不必要的经济损失。     

Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou,China

In 2020, governments worldwide enforced lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19, severely impeding aspects of daily life such as work, school, and tourism. Consequently, numerous economic activities were affected. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, city-center housing markets in areas surrounding popular tourist attractions performed better than did suburban housing markets because of the output of the tourism industry. This study examines the changes in the performance of city-center and suburban housing markets in regions with popular tourist attractions after the lockdown. Specifically, the dynamics of city-center and suburban housing markets in Hangzhou, where West Lake is located, and the changes in the information transfer between these housing markets after the lockdown are explored. Transaction data from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020 are used to perform analysis, in which adjusted housing prices and asking prices are employed to measure market performance and sellers’ pricing strategies, and transaction volume and time on the market are used to measure market liquidity and transaction frequency. The results reveal that the effects of lockdowns differ between city-center and suburban housing markets. After the lockdown, a substantial structural change is observed in the suburban housing market; the volatility risk of housing prices decreases substantially, causing an increase in transaction premiums. Housing prices and transaction volume increase in the city-center housing market after the lockdown; this is possibly because of the influence from the overall housing market booms. In addition, because sellers raise their asking prices and the transaction time is extended, the sellers in the city-center housing market are particularly influenced by the disposition effect. This leads to a reversal in the lead–lag relationship between the city center and suburban housing markets in terms of informativeness. Specifically, before the lockdown, the city-center market transfers information to the suburban market, but after the lockdown, the suburban market transfers information to the city-center market. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world in many aspects; this paper finds that it will also change the development pattern of the real estate market in different locations.     

Capitalization of In‐Process Research and Development under SFAS 141R and Information Asymmetry

This study examines the effect of capitalizing acquired in‐process research and development (IPR&D) on information asymmetry under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 141 (R) (SFAS 141R). SFAS 141R requires acquirers to fully recognize IPR&D at fair value as an indefinite‐lived intangible asset until completion or discontinuation of the project. Prior research suggests IPR&D capitalization will result in an improvement in the information environment. In contrast, we find no evidence that capitalizing IPR&D improved the information environment for IPR&D acquirers. Instead, most of our results suggest no significant change in information asymmetry for IPR&D acquirers during the post‐SFAS 141R period, relative to the concurrent changes for non‐IPR&D acquirers. In cases in which the results suggest a statistically significant increase, the economic magnitudes are relatively small. In addition, we find no evidence that IPR&D acquirers engaged in increased classification shifting between IPR&D and goodwill during the post‐SFAS 141R period, as critics of capitalization had feared.     

构建我国金融交易冷静期规则的思考

金融交易当下签约、未来履行的性质,导致其劝诱式销售司空见惯,加之金融产品专业性、高风险性等特点,造成现今金融市场高度融合化背景下的种种乱象。穷其根源,为信息不对称之过。由此,基于金融投资者保护观念复魅以及交易注意分配结构的变迁,引入公私法交融视阈下的冷静期规则,合理设计其适用范围及其适用期间,辅之以冷静期妨碍规则及其法律后果,对于完善金融交易纠纷处理体系、增强金融机构社会责任意识、实现金融行业可持续健康发展意义重大。     

Differences in returns to cross-border M&A in the short and long run: Evidence from Chinese listed firms

Using the cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) events of Chinese listed firms between 2009 and 2018, this paper studies the impact of cross-border M&A on the short- and long-term performance of firms through the event study method and the propensity score matching–difference-in-differences regression method. The results indicate that in the short run, Chinese firm cross-border M&A acquire significant, positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) within a 21-day event window. In the long run, cross-border M&A fail to improve firm returns on assets (ROA). Furthermore, the paper uncovers that the impact of M&A on ROA varies with the characteristics of acquirers and host countries, and the impact on CAR varies with the characteristics of deals and are not sensitive to characteristics of acquirers or host countries. The paper identifies the differing impacts of China’s “going out” strategy on firm performance in the short and long run and provides explanations for a deeper understanding of the cross-border M&A of Chinese listed firms.     

信息不对称性与融资租赁资产证券化的定价研究

资产证券化产品在中国市场规模中的份额在逐渐扩大,与此同时在中国债券类金融产品中所发挥的作用也日渐重要。利用所构建的信息不对称性衡量指标,以2011—2020年中国融资租赁资产证券化产品为样本,研究信息不对称性对相关融资租赁资产证券化定价的影响。研究发现：信息不对称性对中国融资租赁资产证券化产品的发行定价有着显著的正向影响;对于原始资产分散程度低的融资租赁资产证券,信息不对称性对其产品发行定价存在显著的正向影响;与溢价发行的资产证券相比,信息不对称性对折价发行的证券有更显著的正向影响。