宏观经济政策出现中性转向趋势

当前中国宏观经济运行出现了诸多新形懿一是受希腊就欧盟解决希腊债务危机的方案全民公决一波三折,欧债危机再次陷入恐慌。二是lO月经济领先指数PM大幅回落,实体经济下滑的风险加大。三是当前通胀压力逐步减轻、多数城市房价停止上涨、紧缩货币政策的效果正在不断显现。四是三季度社会融资莹量季环比下降43％,各项融资渠道全面收窄,显示实体经济面临的信贷环境已经过紧。     

ASYMPTOTICS OF IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN LOCAL VOLATILITY MODELS

Using an expansion of the transition density function of a one‐dimensional time inhomogeneous diffusion, we obtain the first‐ and second‐order terms in the short time asymptotics of European call option prices. The method described can be generalized to any order. We then use these option prices approximations to calculate the first‐ and second‐order deviation of the implied volatility from its leading value and obtain approximations which we numerically demonstrate to be highly accurate.     

PROPERTIES OF OPTION PRICES IN MODELS WITH JUMPS

We study convexity and monotonicity properties of option prices in a model with jumps using the fact that these prices satisfy certain parabolic integro–differential equations. Conditions are provided under which preservation of convexity holds, i.e., under which the value, calculated under a chosen martingale measure, of an option with a convex contract function is convex as a function of the underlying stock price. The preservation of convexity is then used to derive monotonicity properties of the option value with respect to the different parameters of the model, such as the volatility, the jump size, and the jump intensity.     

RESEARCH MODELLING IMPLICATIONS OF CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS IN FAMILY MANAGEMENT

The development of family management as a field of study has offered, to date, a number of conceptual frameworks which attempt to explain family behaviour with respect to management activities. Historically, the application of these conceptual frameworks has proceeded without orderly empirical testing. This paper attempts to provide guidelines for the empirical testing of these conceptual frameworks by developing a general research model and suggesting empirical testing procedures. The research issues of the unit of analysis, data availability, variable measurement, simultaneity and functional form are discussed. Suggestions for the future direction and the focus of family management research include the development and testing of measurement instruments for the components of the management process and the empirical testing of a general research model which represents the conceptual frameworks in family management.     

ANALYTICAL COMPARISONS OF OPTION PRICES IN STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

This paper gives an ordering on option prices under various well-known martingale measures in an incomplete stochastic volatility model. Our central result is a comparison theorem that proves convex option prices are decreasing in the market price of volatility risk, the parameter governing the choice of pricing measure. The theorem is applied to order option prices under q -optimal pricing measures. In doing so, we correct orderings demonstrated numerically in Heath, Platen, and Schweizer ( Mathematical Finance , 11(4), 2001) in the special case of the Heston model.     

INTEREST RATES IN POST-KEYNESIAN MODELS OF GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

The goal of this article is to make a heuristic and comparative presentation of how the major post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution integrate money, more specifically interest rates, into their framework. Five variants will be considered, all constructed on the basis of the newer Kaleckian model. It will be shown that increases in real interest rates may have surprising effects on effective demand. It will also be shown that accumulation rates and leverage ratios need not move together. The latter finding reinforces a major hypothesis of the analysis, that is, real interest rates are an exogenous distributive variable.     

HYBRID LOG-LINEAR MODELS FOR SPATIAL INTERACTION AND STABILITY ANALYSIS(*)

This paper discusses the relevance of hybrid log-linear models for applied research based on categorial data. Such models may lead to statistically significant results based on a reduced number of parameters. The use of long-linear modeling is illustrated by means of spatial interaction analysis with categorial data. Special attention is given to the problem of so-called structural zeros and of stability of spatial interaction patterns. Various constraints on the set of interaction parameters emerging from the off-diagonal elements of a spatial interaction matrix are taken into account by means of an entropy function. The analysis is illustrated by means of an empirical application to migration flows in Dutch housing market areas.     

MODELING THE SOFT BUDGET CONSTAINT: INFLATION EXPLAINED BY A DISEQUILIBRIUM IN THE CIRCUIT OF CAPITAL

The article presents a two equation model showing how a disequilibrium between financial capital and real capital is a measure of the degree of a soft budget constraint situation, how such a disequilibrium can originate from price changes, interest rates or other international causes influencing the exchange rate. This is modeled by a circuit equation which is linked to a price equation via the mark up coefficient where it will be assumed that state (or private) enterprises can always cover their current costs and investment costs either by manipulating the selling price or by borrowing at cheap conditions or by getting subsidies or tax exemptions.     

VALUATION OF FLOATING RANGE NOTES IN LÉVY TERM-STRUCTURE MODELS

Turnbull (1995) as well as Navatte and Quittard-Pinon (1999) derived explicit pricing formulae for digital options and range notes in a one-factor Gaussian Heath–Jarrow–Morton (henceforth HJM) model. Nunes (2004) extended their results to a multifactor Gaussian HJM framework. In this paper, we generalize these results by providing explicit pricing solutions for digital options and range notes in the multivariate Lévy term-structure model of Eberlein and Raible (1999) , that is, an HJM-type model driven by a d -dimensional (possibly nonhomogeneous) Lévy process. As a byproduct, we obtain a pricing formula for floating range notes in the special case of a multifactor Gaussian HJM model that is simpler than the one provided by Nunes (2004) .     

CORRELATED DEFAULTS IN INTENSITY-BASED MODELS

This paper presents an intensity-based model of correlated defaults with application to the valuation of defaultable securities. The model assumes that the intensities of the default times are driven by common factors as well as other defaults in the system. A recursive procedure called the "total hazard construction" is used to generate default times with a broad class of correlation structures. This approach is compared to standard reduced-form models based on conditional independence as well as alternative approaches involving copula functions. Examples are given for the pricing of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps of the regular and basket type.     

ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF DISTRIBUTION DENSITIES IN MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY. I

We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of a geometric Brownian motion and the density of the stock price process in the Hull–White model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the price of an Asian option are obtained.     

COMPETITION VERSUS STABILITY IN BANKING

COLLECTED WORKS OF WALTER BAGEHOT: THE ECONOMIC ESSAYS, VOLUMES IX—XI, edited by Norman St John Stevas     

COHERENT ACCEPTABILITY MEASURES IN MULTIPERIOD MODELS

The framework of coherent risk measures has been introduced by Artzner et al. (1999; Math. Finance 9, 203–228) in a single-period setting. Here, we investigate a similar framework in a multiperiod context. We add an axiom of dynamic consistency to the standard coherence axioms, and obtain a representation theorem in terms of collections of multiperiod probability measures that satisfy a certain product property. This theorem is similar to results obtained by Epstein and Schneider (2003; J. Econ. Theor. 113, 1–31) and Wang (2003; J. Econ. Theor. 108, 286–321) in a different axiomatic framework. We then apply our representation result to the pricing of derivatives in incomplete markets, extending results by Carr, Geman, and Madan (2001; J. Financial Econ. 32, 131–167) to the multiperiod case. We present recursive formulas for the computation of price bounds and corresponding optimal hedges. When no shortselling constraints are present, we obtain a recursive formula for price bounds in terms of martingale measures.     

EFFICIENCY GAINS IN BETA-PRICING MODELS1

Recent literature shows that the risk premium is efficiently estimated in the usual two-pass procedure, estimating betas in the unrestricted model, and then regressing returns on estimated betas. This paper shows that this is not so when allowing for factor unobservability. Imposing the financial theory restriction from the outset leads to a strictly positive efficiency gain in the risk premium estimation. In addition, the role of an associated efficiency gain in the beta estimation is studied in the context of a zero-beta model.