On the Systemic Fragility of Finance‐Led Growth

The paper sets up a model of economic crisis by investigating the role played by movement in asset price as a driver of the dynamic interaction between the real and the financial sectors. Such movement influences income determination in the real economy in the short period through aggregate demand leading to the emergence of two macroeconomic regimes. A short period flow model, underpinned by the stock flow consistent accounting framework, is developed to formalize the dynamics of interaction between real and financial sectors mediated by movement in asset price, generates bistability, abrupt crashes, and systemic fragility in the macroeconomic regimes.     

基于成本视角的区际产业转移动因分析

基于区际产业转移动因的相关研究,本文认为我国区际产业转移的动因分析应着重考虑成本因素.结合我国的具体情况,本文主要从生产成本、运输成本和制度成本等方面来分析我国区际产业转移的动因,并提出相应的政策建议.     

不完全竞争下区际贸易政策选择

大国的国内区际贸易可以为该国产业和企业在国际市场提供竞争力支撑。我国作为一个大国,区际贸易因贸易壁垒的广泛存在而受阻,难以为我国产业和企业在国际市场提供竞争力支撑。本文分析了不完全竞争产业区际贸易壁垒存在的经济驱动力,其基本结论是:区际贸易壁垒不仅有利于本地区厂商在本地市场中获得较大的市场份额(即地方保护效应),而且还可以增加本地区厂商的利润(即利润转移效应),并增加本地区的福利;但当所有地方政府都采取贸易保护政策时,会导致所有区域福利水平的降低,从而导致一国整体国民福利的损失。这一结论为中央政府采取相应的措施协调国内区际贸易政策以消除国内市场分割提供了理论依据。     

区际知识溢出不对称、产业区位与内生经济增长

本文在空间经济学相关模型的基础上加以拓展,分析区际知识溢出不对称对产业区位及长期经济增长率的影响机制。不同区域知识资本存量、吸收能力不同,使区际知识溢出呈现不对称特征,直接影响区域新资本创造成本,引致长期经济增长率出现差异。区域本身知识积累存在溢出效应,而且可以获取区外的知识溢出。空间因素在知识创造与知识溢出过程中具有重要作用。知识溢出效应的强度随距离衰减,对于毗邻区域,越是邻近知识创造中心的区域,获得的知识溢出效应就越强,但同时还受到自身吸收能力的制约。对于知识资本禀赋不具优势的区域来说,增强自身对区际知识溢出的吸收能力、充分开展与创新中心的合作,将会提高经济增长率,进入循环累积的正反馈过程。     

集聚经济、空间依赖与中小企业发展空间差异

目前,我国中小企业发展存在明显的空间差异,由东至西形成了较为典型的圈层式空间结构。本文以我国中小企业发展空间差异特征分析为起点,定量考察其发展空间差异的影响因素。结果表明:除要素禀赋、运输成本、区域开放度、政府作用力有显著影响外,集聚经济、空间依赖对我国中小企业发展空间差异的形成具有重要作用。因此,应从城市集群发展、创造要素自由流动的市场环境,及完善区际交通网络等方面,重塑我国中小企业区域协调发展环境。     

国内外市场需求、空间技术溢出与新型城市化

在系统梳理市场需求对新型城市化的作用机制基础上,本文采用面板FGLS法探讨我国地级及以上城市的国内外市场需求和空间技术溢出对新型城市化的影响。分析结果显示,国内市场显著加强了新型城市化进程中东部地区的技术溢出效应,阻碍了中西部地区的区际研发技术溢出效应的有效发挥;国外市场对东部地区的区际研发技术溢出效应和西部地区的区际沟通技术溢出效应具有明显促进作用,抑制了东部地区的区际沟通技术溢出效应;国内外市场的作用在东中部地区表现为互补关系,而在西部地区则为替代关系。     

Trade policymaking in Uruguay: Recent trends and challenges ahead

This paper reviews the main recent trends in trade and trade policy in Uruguay. At first sight, between 2012 and 2018 no major changes are noticed in trade and trade policy in the country. Trade lost importance as share of national GDP, exports concentrated in primary sectors, and tariffs remained unchanged. However, some advances are noted. Trade in services increased substantially, export markets diversified, and the country participated actively in multilateral negotiations. As part of MERCOSUR, the country has just signed two potentially liberalising agreements, and the bloc’s internal agenda is also being modernized. At the national level, the country has undergone a series of reforms to modernise its customs procedures and facilitate trade. Some challenges lie ahead. MERCOSUR needs to consolidate the recent liberalising trend, and needs to work on its internal agenda, to liberalise interregional trade, remove non-tariff barriers and harmonise special regimes for imports. Uruguay, for its part, needs to continue with its domestic reforms to consolidate trade facilitation, to reduce duties and charges to trade, and to attract foreign investment.     

《服务贸易总协定》下自然人流动的福利效应分析

自然人流动是《服务贸易总协定》框架下贸易量最小的一种模式,但是由于涉及到人员的跨境流动,关系到各国的就业、社会稳定、文化等各方面的问题,各国政府在作出承诺的时候还是比较谨慎的。文章以单个产品模型中的要素流动分析为基础,分析了自然人暂时流动的福利效应,希望能为各国政府的政策制定和下一轮的多边谈判提供理论上的依据和支持。     

我国并购浪潮假说的实证检验

并购活动呈浪潮式发展在西方发达国家几乎已成典型化事实,回顾我国并购活动发展历程发现,这一典型化事实在我国似乎也是存在的.为了加强对总体并购活动发展态势的了解和掌握,促进我国并购理论的完善和发展,本文对我国并购浪潮假说进行检验.检验结果表明,三状态马尔科夫区制转移模型和我们对并购浪潮的定义能够正确地刻画我国总体并购活动,我国总体并购活动呈浪潮式发展,并购活动具有周期性,而拒绝认为并购活动遵循随机游走过程.     

财政转移支付对地区经济发展差距的影响——以甘肃为例

财政转移支付是政府调节区域经济发展的重要政策手段。本文利用甘肃省1994-2005年的分县数据,探讨了财政转移支付在缩小地区经济发展差距中的作用。研究表明:财政转移支付对接受地的经济增长有促进作用,适当的财政转移支付政策能够起到缩小地区经济发展差距的作用;甘肃省财政转移支付在分配中向相对发达地区倾斜,导致财政转移支付在客观上起到了扩大地区差距的作用。     

The impact of exchange rate regimes on economic growth: Empirical study of a set of developing countries during the period 1974–2006

An increment in the quantity of services/goods manufactured per-head of the population over time denotes economic growth of a country. Exchange Rate Intermediate Regimes are unable to continue under conditions of capital movement. To examine the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. This study has kept its focus on the economic growth of a set of developing countries during the years (1974–2006). Fixed effects and pooled regression for 16 developing countries have been incorporated as the methodologies techniques for data. Analysis of data was performed through SPSS. A relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth has been identified through statistical approaches. The results indicated that as compared to flexible exchange regime, growth rate was higher by 1.2% when fixed exchange regime was adopted; and a growth rate of 0.64% was achieved under the intermediate regime when compared with the flexible regime. A positive impact has been identified in exchange rate regimes upon economic growth of the developing countries. Countries following the flexible exchange rates are facing scarcity for the existence of advanced financial systems, which deprives them of enjoying the benefits of flexible regime.     

中国多边区际民商事判决承认和执行安排——对解决四大难题的建议

在中国实现判决的自由流动的关键是建立一个多边区际民商事判决承认和执行安排,以取代现有的两大双边安排。本文首先分析了中国区际判决承认和执行的现状;然后,论证了区域经济一体化要求在陆港澳之间建立一个多边判决承认和执行安排,并且这个安排可以扩大到中国台湾;最后通过和美欧区际判决承认执行法比较研究的方式,提出如何解决建立这个多边判决承认和执行安排面临的四大最严峻的挑战:大陆的社会主义法和港澳的资本主义法的冲突、大陆法和普通法之间的冲突、薄弱的区际相互信任和欠缺可以受理来自三个法域案件的终审法院。     

关于财政分权利弊的理论分析

本文从理论上系统分析和总结了财政分权或分权化的公共管理体制改革所存在的利弊。财政分权的有利之处主要体现在对多样化地区偏好的敏感度,通过家庭流动性揭示真实偏好,保护后代人的利益,限制政府权力滥用,提高居民对公共事务的参与度,促进公共服务创新等方面;其弊端主要包括资源在地区间的无效配置,破坏性的税收竞争,税收出口与溢出效应,次优的收入分配与稳定政策等。在此基础上,简要讨论了我国财政分权体制下的财政监督问题。     

Cyclical dynamics in a Kaleckian model with demand and distribution regimes and endogenous natural output

We analyse the interaction of demand and income distribution in a dynamic Kaleckian model with endogenous natural output. Endogenous changes of the natural output level to changes in the demand-determined actual output level have featured prominently in discussions of hysteresis after the crisis of 2008. We consider wage-led and profit-led demand (PLD) regimes and goods market-led and labour market-led income distribution regimes. The stability of the steady state is related to the endogeneity of natural output level in certain regimes. Limit cycles arise when the strong flexibility of prices or wages to the output gap is combined with moderate natural output hysteresis. A Kaleckian model with a wage-led demand regime and anticyclical profit share is less unstable and pseudo-Goodwin cycles can arise in the PLD regime with a procyclical profit share.     

How is the Taylor Rule Distributed under Endogenous Monetary Regimes?

This paper estimates Taylor rules at various points (quantiles) on the conditional interest‐rate distribution for endogenously identified monetary regimes. I find that the Taylor principle upholds only for the upper tails of the interest‐rate distribution in monetary Hawkish regimes, but not in monetary interim and Dovish regimes. Moreover, the results show that the Federal Reserve responds more aggressively to inflation at upper tails than at lower tails in both monetary Dovish and Hawkish regimes, implying its significant inflation‐avoidance preference. Finally, the Federal Reserve appears to respond to inflation more aggressively during Hawkish regimes than during Dovish regimes across quantiles.     

The impact of monetary policy on oil price persistence: An application of the smooth regime-switching model

This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the persistence of oil price changes, and chooses monetary policy variables as transition variables of the model to assess their roles in the persistence effects. The empirical results show that oil price changes displayed asymmetric adjustments within different regimes and were more sensitive to the movement of interest rates than inflation rate. In addition, high inflation rate would give rise to low oil price persistence, and expansionary monetary policy would bring about higher oil price persistence. Moreover, when the short- and long-term interest rates were over their threshold values, the persistence effects of oil price changes were opposite. In the present relatively low US interest rates, adopting either an inflation-targeting policy or/and a debt-financing policy to stimulate economic growth, the timing is appropriate and the effect will be positive and expected because of low persistence of oil price changes.     

长江中游城市群区域协调发展机制探析

在我国实施扩大内需、中部崛起和生态文明建设的新的历史条件下,长江中游城市群所承载的不仅仅是增加一个新的经济增长极,而且承担着探索区域发展新模式的历史使命。推进长江中游城市群建设,核心是利益协调,关键是体制机制创新。针对长江中游城市群发展面临的主要障碍,围绕城市群各地区共同关注、单一省市又难以自行解决的重大问题,长江中游城市群应重点探索建立健全国土空间开发机制、跨区域合作协调机制、横向利益分配机制和生态文明建设机制,构建生态文明体系下的区域合作发展新模式。     

Does skilled migration reduce investment in human capital? An investigation on educational choices in Italian regions (2001–2016)

This paper investigates the effects of prospective migration on students’ investment in tertiary education. A simple theoretical model is presented in which individual educational choices, different across potential students because of heterogeneity in migration costs, are driven by expected returns and costs of tertiary education. In this framework, a larger probability of after-graduation migration is shown to affect educational choices by both reducing the rate of enrollment at home and favoring pre-graduation migration (i.e., enrollment at universities outside the residence region). The theoretical predictions are confirmed by the empirical investigation carried out on Italian interregional graduate migration in 2001–2016. In the lagging regions of Southern Italy, out-migration of students and graduates, and weak incentives to acquire tertiary education turn out to bring about depletion of local human capital.     

固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度下经济的自动稳定性

本文运用规范的开放宏观模型和比较静态分析方法,讨论了固定汇率制度或浮动汇率制度下、如果没有政策的干预,面对真实或名义瞬时冲击时的产出和物价的自动稳定性。分析表明,两种汇率制度下经济稳定表现与经济系统的结构参数有密切的关系,没有一个汇率制度在所有情形下都表现得最好。但对特定的发展中国家经济结构特征和外生冲击来源的可能性来说,相对于浮动汇率制度,固定汇率制度更利于经济的自动稳定。     

Exchange rate regimes and national price levels

This paper explores the role of exchange rate regimes in explaining deviations from the classic theory of purchasing power parity. Examining a broad panel of countries, I find that developing countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have national price levels that are 20 percent higher than those with flexible regimes. For industrial countries, the relation between regimes and price levels is qualitatively similar but weaker. I investigate several explanations for this pattern, and find that exchange-rate overshooting in floats, inflation inertia in pegs and expansionary policies can explain only 5 percentage points of the observed differences. I also show that even though the observed pattern could be the outcome of a class of open economy models pioneered by Obstfeld and Rogoff, the data provides limited empirical support for the predictions of this model.