THE VON NEUMANN VERSION OF DE VITI DE MARCO'S MODEL THE CASE OF PUBLIC INTERMEDIATE COMMODITIES

As a substantial share of the national product is absorbed by the public sector, it may be interesting to examine the consequences of public sector activities introducing externalities into a von Neumann model. Previous approaches have shown some limitations and shortcomings which may be solved by introducing each externality as a different von Neumann commodity, distinguished on the basis of its user. These public intermediate commodities (pic) are related only to the production side of the economy. We will suppose their total available amount to influence directly the use and the intensity of one or more productive processes. Pic are also one of the premises and foundations of the public sector normative and positive theory of De Viti De Marco. In our model we will try to follow his line of reasoning as faithfully as possible, even if we shall confine ourselves to the original von Neumann (or KMT) model. It may be surprising to see how easily pic will fit into the von Neumann model, but this should not be unexpected after the article by Morishima and Thompson. We will show how the rate of growth of the von Neumann economy (where the prices of pic are determined by the equilibrium solution and paid through taxation) is greater than the one which will be determined by the private market equilibrium where pic are free.     

COMMODITY CONTENT IN A GENERAL INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

This technical paper provides a definition of ‘commodity content’ in extended von Neumann–Morishima models of production. Our definition admits as special cases the classical definition of ‘labour values’ in Leontief models, as well as Morishima's definition of ‘optimal values’ in a von Neumann model. Proper joint production, heterogeneous labour, durable consumption goods, household activities and disposal processes are all allowed for. We also propose a tentative mathematical criterion for defining bads and for distinguishing between unskilled and skilled labour.     

FREEDOM AND ACHIEVEMENT OF WELL‐BEING AND ADAPTIVE DYNAMICS OF CAPABILITIES

Extending D'Agata (2007, Journal of Socio‐Economics, 36, pp. 177–90), we consider adaptive dynamics of capabilities. In terms of the two‐way evaluation of well‐being à la Sen, we show the existence of a distribution of goods equalizing well‐being freedom (achievement) of each individual, the total amount of goods being fixed. On the other hand, by means of counter examples, we exemplify that two closely related focal variables can move in reverse directions (goods vs. well‐being, or freedom vs. achievement). In a dynamic context, one's well‐being achievement may decrease even with an increase in goods available, while, ceteris paribus, his/her well‐being freedom increases.     

‘BAUMOL'S DISEASE’, PRODUCTION EXTERNALITIES AND PRODUCTIVITY EFFECTS OF INTERSECTORAL TRANSFERS

This paper presents a model that introduces in an unbalanced growth framework à la Baumol the hypothesis of an endogenous productivity growth due to a positive externality of the service sector on manufacturing productivity and a learning‐by‐doing process inside both sectors. The model shows that a policy aimed at keeping the ratio between outputs in the two sectors constant in real terms may improve the aggregate productivity performance of the economy, depending on the parameters' values. Then the model derives the dynamics of the intersectoral transfer which is necessary to keep the ratio between outputs constant, and verifies that the amount of the transfer turns out to be always lower than the output of the manufacturing sector, and only asymptotically approaches it.     

Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom: Trade and/or Technology?

I employ two alternative intra‐industry trade Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models to explain some stylised facts of the British economy. The model with skill‐biased technical change (i.e. exogenous skill‐biased technical change à la Solow) can explain the rise in wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, the decline in manufacturing and the expansion of modern services. However, the model where technical change is trade‐induced (i.e. endogenous sector‐biased technical change à la Romer) performs better, because it can also explain the exponential rise of imported intermediate capital goods and developments in the wage rate of unskilled workers.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

A Simple Timing Strategy for Canadian Fixed Income Portfolios

Fixed income return enhancement can be obtained in the Canadian marketplace when one conditions on past stock market movements. A simple timing rule is demonstrated to increase holding period return significantly. It is likely that this strategy is capitalizing on increases in ex ante return due to higher levels of risk aversion induced by lower societal wealth. Nevertheless, although these opportunities were available to all, it is shown that Canadian fixed income portfolio managers failed to seize them. Résumé On peu améliorer le rendement des instruments à taux fixe sur le marché canadien en se basant sur les mouvements passés du marché boursier. Il est prouvé que le simple choix du bon moment peut augmenter de façon significative le rendement enregistré au cours de la période d'investissement. Cette stratégie tire probablement parti des augmentations du rendement ex ante imputable à des niveaux élevés d'aversion pour le risque induits par une richesse sociale amoindrie. Toutefois, bien que tous aient eu accès à ces possibilités, l'étude révèle que les gestionnaires canadiens de portefeuille d'instruments à taux fixe n'en ont pas profité.     

Devaluation: Levels versus rates

In a context of infinitely-lived families à la Sidrauski, where consumers are lump-sum compensated for the inflation tax, and there is no capital mobility, it is shown that a devaluation improves while an increase in the rate of devaluation deteriorates the balance of payments.     

Mean Reversion and the Comovement of Equilibrium Spot and Futures Prices: Implications from Alternative Data‐Generating Processes

The comovements of spot and futures prices are characterized by six binary variables, including the term structure curvature of futures prices. These variables are used to uniquely identify 48 possible comovement patterns. Among them, 24 cases are associated with mean reversion, which is defined as a state when spreads between futures and spot prices are shrinking. These pattern frequencies are then calculated on a daily basis with the futures prices of 10 commodities, including precious metal, agricultural, and financial commodities. The results are further compared to simulation output from three data‐generating processes: a bivariate pure random walk, a mixed random walk with first‐order autoregression (AR(1)), and an error‐correction representation. The mean‐reverting frequencies for all 10 commodities are about 50%. Around half of the time, spot and futures prices are moving toward each other, and the rest of the time they move in the same direction. The symmetry of these results implies that the existence of substantial shocks originated from futures markets; thus, this is consistent with the risk premium view of futures trading. Also, although all simulation models produce similar mean‐reversion frequencies, the patterns of comovements of spot and futures prices are different, and the price dynamics depend heavily on whether the market is dominant contango or backwardation. Furthermore, the error‐correction model outperforms the random‐walk model for agricultural commodities, and the mixed random walk with AR(1) is hardly distinguishable from the pure random walk. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:769–796, 2001     

HAS THE OKISHIO THEOREM BEEN REFUTED?

This paper evaluates the alleged refutation of the Okishio theorem by the Temporal Single‐System Interpretation (TSSI) of Marxian value theory. The TSSI's refutation of the Okishio theorem requires not only changes in the definition of the rate of profit but also an arbitrary assumption about the time paths of labour productivity and prices. An ad hoc assumption about price changes used to disprove the Okishio theorem is meaningless because the aim of Marx's economics was to explain capitalist exploitation and accumulation without resorting to exogenously given changes on the market.     

AS‐AD REVISITED: OVERSHOOTING ADJUSTMENT DYNAMICS UNDER NAÏVE EXPECTATIONS

We analyse the adjustment dynamics from a short‐term to a medium‐term equilibrium in a standard AS‐AD model à la Blanchard (2006, Macroeconomics, 4th edn, Prentice‐Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ) for an open economy with fixed and flexible exchange rates. An explicit analysis suggests the local stability of the medium‐term equilibrium. However, an overshooting adjustment dynamics is possible for the exchange rate, a result that directly relates to the famous Dornbusch (1976, Journal of Political Economy, 84, pp. 1161–1176) analysis. In contrast to the latter, in the Blanchard framework it is obtained without assuming rational expectations and without relying upon saddle‐path stability.     

Existence of a calibrated regime switching local volatility model

By Gyöngy's theorem, a local and stochastic volatility model is calibrated to the market prices of all European call options with positive maturities and strikes if its local volatility (LV) function is equal to the ratio of the Dupire LV function over the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor given the spot value. This leads to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) nonlinear in the sense of McKean. Particle methods based on a kernel approximation of the conditional expectation, as presented in Guyon and Henry‐Labordère [Risk Magazine, 25, 92–97], provide an efficient calibration procedure even if some calibration errors may appear when the range of the stochastic volatility factor is very large. But so far, no global existence result is available for the SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. When the stochastic volatility factor is a jump process taking finitely many values and with jump intensities depending on the spot level, we prove existence of a solution to the associated Fokker–Planck equation under the condition that the range of the squared stochastic volatility factor is not too large. We then deduce existence to the calibrated model by extending the results in Figalli [Journal of Functional Analysis, 254(1), 109–153].     

Intermediaries,Firm Heterogeneity and Exporting Behaviour

In this paper, we present one of the first work on the relation between firm productivity and exporting behaviour in the presence of intermediaries. Using a standard trade framework à la Melitz (2003, Econometrica, 71 , 6, 1695) and Chaney (2009, American Economic Review, 98, 4 , 1707), we find that the most productive firms have sales in the home country and also exporting directly to foreign countries, followed by firms with sales in the home country and exporting both directly and through intermediaries, by firms with sales in the home country and exporting through intermediaries, and finally by firms with sales in the home country only. These theoretical predictions are borne out in a data set of 12,679 firms in 29 developing economies during the 2002–06 period.     

Non-uniqueness Through Duality in the Von Neumann Growth Models

Duality can be viewed as the soul of each von Neumann growth model. This is not at all surprising because von Neumann (1955), a mathematical genius, extensively studied quantum mechanics which involves a “dual nature” (electromagnetic waves and discrete corpuscules or light quanta). This may have had some influence on developing his own economic duality concept. The main object of this paper is to restore the spirit of economic duality in the investigations of the multiple von Neumann equilibria. By means of the (ir)reducibility taxonomy in Móczár (1995) the author transforms the primal canonical decomposition given by Bromek (1974) in the von Neumann growth model into the synergistic primal and dual canonical decomposition. This enables us to obtain all the information about the steadily maintainable states of growth sustained by the compatible price-constellations at each distinct expansion factor.     

The Effect of Demographics,Work Status,and Relative Equity on Organizational Commitment: Looking Among Part-Time Workers

Abstract This study investigated differences in organizational commitment among part-time workers. This contrasts with the traditional comparison of differences between part-time workers and their full-time counterparts. The most significant predictors of organizational commitment among part-timers were their perceptions of relative equity and job satisfaction, compared with full-timers. Neither demographics nor work status were significant after controlling for relative equity and satisfaction. Satisfaction acted as a partial mediator between the independent variable, relative equity, and the dependent variable, organizational commitment. This research indicates that organizations need to recognize that part-timers' attitudes toward their jobs depend a good deal on their perceptions of their treatment relative to full-time employees. Résumé Cette étude analyse les differences d'engagement envers l'employeur chez les employés à temps partiel seule-ment, au lieu de la comparaison traditionnelle entre les employés à temps partiel et les employés à temps plein. Les prédicteurs les plus significatifs de I'engagement envers I'employeur chez les employés à temps partiel sont la perception de l'équité relative de leur traitement par rapport aux employés à temps plein, et la satisfaction associée à leur travail. Ni les critères démo-graphiques, ni le rang dans la hiérarchie sur le lieu de travail ne s'avèrent significatifs après normalisation, compte tenu des variables équité relative et satisfaction. La satisfaction joue le rôle de médiateur partiel entre la variable indépendante, équité relative, et la variable dépendante, engagement envers I'employeur. Ces résul-tats indiquent que les employeurs ont besoin de reconnoitre que les attitudes de travail des employés à temps partiel dépendent beaucoup de la faeon dont ceux-ci ont I'impression d'ětre traités par rapport aux employés a temps plein.     

COVID-19 and tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets using a copula-based network method. We document a significant increase in the lower and upper tail contagiousness of commodities following the COVID-19 outbreak. Contagion shows an obvious clustering characteristic, that is, there is higher tail risk connectedness between commodities in the same category. Agricultural commodities are significantly less contagious than metals and energy commodities; soft commodities in particular can offer investors significant diversification benefits. There are several hub commodities in the contagion network, chief among them copper, which are good transmitters of shocks and should be treated with caution by investors and regulators. Although tail risk and contagiousness of individual commodities increase together during the pandemic, we find a negative cross-sectional relationship between tail risk and contagiousness, that is, commodities with high tail risk are not necessarily highly contagious and may even be less so.     

Relationship of Supervisors' Sex-Role Stereotypes to Performance Evaluation of Male and Female Subordinates in Non-traditional Jobs

A survey of 488 supervisors classified them as traditional, moderate, and egalitarian in their attitudes towards women using the Spence, Helmreich and Stapp (1973) Attitudes Toward Women Scale. These results were analyzed in relation to the performance evaluations given to their 235 male and 25 3 female subordinates who were matched for position level and type of occupation in a large coast-to-coast Canadian public sector organization, whose mandate is not one traditionally associated with women. All supervisors were directly acquainted with the work of their subordinates over a minimum three-month to three-year time frame. Traditional supervisors of women (Spence, Helmreich and Stapp, 19 73), compared to traditional supervisors of men, evaluated the women supervised, even in the face of substantial direct contact, as less able to: (1) autonomously direct their subordinates; (2) assist in the career development of their subordinates; and (3) effectively monitor the day-to-day results of their subordinates. No differences were found between evaluations received by men and women working for egalitarian supervisors. Compared to egalitarian supervisors, traditional supervisors were reluctant to assign technical, vital high-profile projects to female subordinates. The results were interpreted in terms of mores from the greater macro-culture which were reflected inside the organization via gender-related barriers to equity such as absence of effective role models, difficulty gaining access to informal networks, tokenism, and the belief found here that women as supervisors in non-traditional areas are dysfunctional for the organization and for the upward mobility of their subordinates. Résumé Quatre cent quatre-vingt-huit superviseurs one été catégorisés comme traditionnels, modérés et égalitaircs dans leurs attitudes vis-à-vis des femmes selon l'Echelle d'attitudes vis-à-vis des femmes développée par Spence, Helmrich, Stapp (1973). Ces résultats ont été analysés en relation avec les évaluations de rendement de leurs 235 subalternes masculins et 253 subalternes féminins correspondant quant à leur niveau et type d'occupation au sein d'un organisme du secteur public présent dans tout le Canada et dont le mandat n'est pas traditionellement associé avec le travail de leurs subalternes et ce sur une période allant d'au moins trois mois à trois ans. Les superviseurs traditionnels de personnel féminin (Spence, Helmrich & Stapp, 1973) comparés à des superviseurs traditionnels de personnel masculin, ont évalué les femmes qu'ils supervisaient, maigre un contact direct important, comme étant moins capable de: 1) diriger leurs subalternes de façon autonome; 2) fournir à leurs subalternes l'assistance requise dans l'avancement de leur carrière; 3) contrǒler efficacement le rendement quotidien de leurs subalternes. Aucune différence n'est apparue dans les évaluations des hommes et des femmes qui travaillaient pour des superviseurs égalitaires. Par comparaison à ces derniers, les superviseurs traditionnels démontraient une certaine réticence à confier à leurs subalternes féminins des projets techniques vitaux a visibilité élevée. Ces résultats ont été interprétés en termes des moeurs de la macro-culture plus globale qui sont reflétées au sein de l'organisme à travers des obstacles à l'égalité reliés aux sexe tels que l'absence de modèles positifs, la difficulté d'accès à des réseaux officieux, une présence féminine uniquement symbolique et la perception selon laquelle les femmes superviseurs dans les domaines non traditionnels empěchent le bon fonctionnement de l'organisme et l'avancement de leurs subalternes.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION,CREDIT RATIONING AND HOUSEHOLDS' DEBT

In this paper, we present a model of an economy with household debt, and discuss the conditions under which financial fragility arises. Financial instability is driven by distributive effects. In addition to the income transfers associated with interest payments, the accumulation of debt feeds back with the distribution of income between labour and capital. The model also gives a central role to banks and credit rationing. Contrary to the existing literature, credit supply does not depend on the characteristics of borrowers, but on those of banks. There is a feedback channel between the health of the financial system and the quantity of credit in the economy. We show that there is a diversity of channels through which financial fragility may arise. We identify three channels: a debt–deflation effect à la Fisher, a credit‐financed consumption boom and an exhilarating debt effect.     

DYNAMIC DEFAULTABLE TERM STRUCTURE MODELING BEYOND THE INTENSITY PARADIGM

The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered by Merton and the reduced‐form framework proposed by Jarrow and Turnbull and by Artzner and Delbaen. The goal of this paper is to provide a unified view on both approaches. This is achieved by studying reduced‐form approaches under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume the global existence of a default intensity and allow default at fixed or predictable times, such as coupon payment dates, with positive probability. In this generalized framework, we study dynamic term structures prone to default risk following the forward‐rate approach proposed by Heath, Jarrow, and Morton. It turns out that previously considered models lead to arbitrage possibilities when default can happen at a predictable time. A suitable generalization of the forward‐rate approach contains an additional stochastic integral with atoms at predictable times and necessary and sufficient conditions for an appropriate no‐arbitrage condition are given. For efficient implementations, we develop a new class of affine models that do not satisfy the standard assumption of stochastic continuity. The chosen approach is intimately related to the theory of enlargement of filtrations, for which we provide an example by means of filtering theory where the Azéma supermartingale contains upward and downward jumps, both at predictable and totally inaccessible stopping times.     

Margin Requirements in the Security Market and Public Policy

The paper examines the problem of losses beyond margin in the stock market and Us probable solution assuming that the present regime of margin regulations continues. In Canada, the severity of losses in the stock market has been enhanced by inadequate legislation in the margin-related area, ambiguous rules and regulations of the stock exchanges in this regard, and conflicting court decisions in establishing liabilities for losses due to violations of margin regulations. This paper will focus on the nature of the problems in the above three areas and suggest measures, largely legislative in nature, to reduce the losses incurred by the public through trading in margin accounts. The analysis of losses in margin accounts is supported by two court cases arising out of the 1980–82 recession and high interest rates during this period. Résumé Cette étude examine le problème des pertes boursières engagées au-delà de la marge et sa solution probable en supposant que le présent régime de réglementation des marges se poursuive. Au Canada, l'importance des pertes boursières est accentuée par une législation relative aux marges inadéquate, une réglementation boursière ambiguë et des décisions judiciaires contradictoires quant à la responsabilité des pertes causées par des transgressions des règles sur les marges. La présente étude vise à éclaircir la nature des problèmes dans les trois secteurs précédement mentionnés et à suggérer des mesures de nature principalement législative afin de réduire les penes engagées par le public dans les comptes de marge. L'analyse de ces pertes est appuyée ici par deux causes judiciaires survenues pendant la période de la récession en 1980–82 et caractérisée par taux d'intérět élevés.