Are Mergers Beneficial or Detrimental? Evidence from Advertising Agencies1

We study 33 pairs of advertising agencies that merged between 1947 and 1985, comparing each merging pair against two controls: (a) a pair of agencies with combined merger-date billings close to the total billings of the merged unit, and (b) a single agency with similar total merger-date billings. Gross revenues are the dependent variable. Results: Merging firms do worse in the short run than controls. Assuming similar subsequent rates of growth for merging and non-merging firms, a loss of 16 percent of firm value due to merging is implied.     

The Determinants of New Firm Formation in UK Construction: Evidence from Quarterly VAT Registrations

This paper examines the ways in which industry-specific and macro-economic factors combine to lead to variations over time in the rate of new firm formation in the UK construction industry. The paper corroborates findings from elsewhere which suggest that housing wealth may be an important source of collateral for individuals seeking to raise the finance necessary to start up in business. The analysis of industry-specific influences supports the hypothesis that formation activity in construction is responsive to variations in the relative returns to entrepreneurship     

Viability of Traditional Banking Activities: Evidence from Shifts in Conduct and Excess Capacity

This paper applies modem statistical techniques to estimate levels and shifts of market conduct and aggregate excess capacity in the provision of traditional US banking products such as loans and demand deposits. A variety of models indicate that loans are competitively supplied, with no obvious excess capacity as defined. Some models indicate an anticompetitive shift in demand deposits after 1984, but other evidence suggests that this result may be an artifact attributable to the growth of NOW accounts, MMDAs, and the like. All results suggest that the current levels of these services can be profitably sustained under current market conditions.     

The role of the stock market in the provision of Islamic development finance: Evidence from Sudan

This paper assesses the impact of stock exchange funding in the Shari'ya compliant Islamic economy of Sudan. Evidence suggests that while Islamic financial instruments have considerable potential in facilitating development finance through their emphasis on partnership this is better achieved by the banking system rather than the Khartoum Stock Exchange. A case study of the Sudan Telecommunications company shows that larger firms able to cross-list elsewhere are likely to choose regional markets in preference to their domestic one thus benefiting from lower costs of equity. However, governance preferences are likely to favour block shareholders following the Islamic finance partnership concept.     

Market Structure,Learning and Product Innovation: Evidence for the EPROM Market

The study analyses the market for semiconductor memory chips, in particular EPROMs. Semiconductors are very interesting industry for studying empirically the dynamics of innovation. Given the short product life cycles of generations of chips, the market dynamics unfold much more rapidly than in other industries and are therefore better amenable to empirical observation. One of the aims is to shed more light on the link between learning and the dynamics of product innovation, as well as their influence on market structure. Learning with an old generation turns out to be an important determinant for product innovation. The further down the firm has moved on the learning curve, the higher its market share, and the larger becomes the probability that the firm is an early innovator. The results are consistent with the persistence of leadership hypothesis.     

Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus

This paper examines the presence of political cycles in a small open economy using data from Cyprus over the period 1978–2006, and explores their conditionality upon external economic constraints, such as globalization and European integration. Two basic results emerge. First, we find evidence of partisan shifts in economic policies and outcomes, although these effects seem to decrease as globalization progresses, and to disappear in the run-up to EMU. This implies that, while partisan cycles can emerge under a certain domestic political setting, the sensitivity of an economy to globalization pressures and the challenges resulting from EU/EMU membership can lead to their weakening. Second, we find evidence of electoral shifts in certain, more visible, subcomponents of the fiscal balance. However, in contrast to partisan distinctions, these opportunistic effects become more pronounced as globalization proceeds. It seems that constraints imposed on the ability of politicians to ingratiate themselves with partisans, may actually strengthen their incentives to engage in electioneering.     

Executive Pay and Performance: The Empirical Importance of the Participation Constraint

The low elasticity of top executive pay to performance in recent empirical work presents a puzzle since it is clear from the data that in practice both pay and performance measures have moved closely in line in recent years. This paper demonstrates that cross-section and time-series estimates of the pay performance elasticity differ significantly unless the effect of average executive pay is included. It is argued that this can be seen as the effect of the participation constraint in a principal agent model, more commonly known as "the going rate". The going rate must be paid to executives to deter them from taking up their outside option, which is the opportunity to leave the current firm and sign an incentive contract with another firm. Thus the outside option will depend on performance by other firms. Since performance is correlated between firms, this generates a larger time-series pay performance elasticity as perceived by the executive. The paper also considers the possibility that the going

rate may induce incentive effects. The predictions of this argument are tested on a panel of data for large UK companies     

Foreign equity flows and the “Size Bias”: Evidence from an emerging stock market

This paper examines foreign investors' equity-level transactions in an emerging stock market, the Istanbul Stock Exchange, for the period 1997–2008 to derive insights into the debate on information asymmetries between domestic and foreign investors and the home bias puzzle. The analysis suggests two important findings. First, foreign investors do not consider the market portfolio of domestic securities as predicted by standard theories of international portfolio diversification. Second, the firm's size and the expected return are central to explain foreign investors' equity trades. The results are consistent with models based upon the hypothesis of differential information between foreign and domestic investors.     

Information Strategies and the Theory of the Firm

Information costs play a key role in determining the relative efficiency of alternative organisational structures. The choice of locations at which information is stored in a firm is an important determinant of its information costs. A specific example of information use is modelled in order to explore what factors determine whether information should be stored centrally or locally and if it should be replicated at different sites. This provides insights into why firms are structured hierarchically, with some decisions and tasks being performed centrally and others at different levels of decentralisation. The effects of new information technologies are also discussed. These can radically alter the patterns and levels of information costs within a firm and so can cause substantial changes in organisational structure     

Building External Manufacturing Capability in Emerging Markets: Honda's Knowledge Transfer and the Role of Local Suppliers' Responsiveness

ABSTRACT

This study explores Honda's knowledge transfer to local suppliers in Vietnam. It argues that local suppliers' responsiveness can be a supplementary condition to absorptive capacity when considering buyer-supplier relation of knowledge transfer. In Vietnam where local suppliers were less capable or limited, Honda has exploited the supplier responsiveness to develop external manufacturing capabilities which contributed to Honda Vietnam's performance. Responsiveness enabled Honda to use a hands-on approach as an effective mechanism to transfer key principles and tacit technical knowledge to local suppliers in the initial stages of establishing a relationship. As a result, Honda is both beneficial from suppliers' specific absorptive capacity and continuous responsiveness.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

The Effects of UK Pharmaceutical Policy on Government Drug Expenditure: Cost Control and Incentives for R&D

This paper investigates the impact of UK pharmaceutical policy on the level of NHS pharmaceutical expenditure. UK pharmaceutical policy is one which has managed to control costs, but at the same time, has not sacrificed the rewards for conducting long-term R&D in the UK. The analysis provides evidence that the government policies which encourage long-term R&D and the development of new drugs actually lead to lower overall pharmaceutical expenditure by the NHS. The reason for this is attributed to the savings associated with the replacement of new drugs for other less effective drugs. Additional results show that the UK receives positive spillovers from the R&D conducted by US firms and this R&D has a cost reducing impact on NHS pharmaceutical expenditure.     

Sustainable Asset Growth and the Accounting Rate of Return in Not–For–Profit Organizations: Theory and Evidence

Parties needing to monitor the financial performance of not–for–profit (NFP) organizations have traditionally relied upon financial ratios of accounting data. This practice can lead to misleading inferences about profitability in relation to organizational needs, since accounting rates of return are potentially poor proxies for economic rates of return. In this paper we show how to compensate for the imprecision of the accounting rate of return through the use of a simple interpretive rule based on the finding that accounting and economic rates of return are on the same side of the growth rate. According to our rule, the accounting rate of return must exceed the asset growth rate in order to sustain growth with internally–generated cash flow. Logistic regressions are used to test the rule's ability to predict sustainable asset growth in a sample of NFP hospitals. The findings not only validate the rule, but also show that the rule exploits all usable information contained in the accounting rate of return     

The Determinants of Firm Exit from Exporting: Evidence for the UK

This study seeks to understand to what extent new exporters are able to survive in international markets and whether exit from exporting is more likely to be associated with firm-level heterogeneity or more general factors such as trade costs and/or barriers to entry and exit (such as sunk costs). This study presents the first analysis undertaken for a nationally representative group of UK firms on the determinants of exit from exporting, using panel data covering all market-based sectors of the UK during 1997–2003. Our findings suggest that the probability of a firm ceasing to export is directly influenced by its productivity and other attributes associated with firm-level productivity differences (such as size and foreign ownership). Micro-finance factors, such as profitability and the ability to finance through long-term debt, play an additional role. Lastly, sectoral differences (e.g. industrial concentration) also help explain the firm’s exit decision, whilst trade costs lead to a higher probability of exiting from selling internationally.     

Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM

This paper aims to study the Central and Eastern European Countries' (CEECs) dynamics of financial integration in the euro area with the prospect of their integration into the European Monetary Union. Our empirical analysis is based, successively, on a MGARCH model with time-varying correlations, a state-space model and a Markov-switching model. The results show that financial integration (i) is not perfect but is increasing and (ii) is linked to currency stability. The growing financial integration in 2007–2009 seems to be rather the result of the shock propagated by the global crisis.     

Business Survival and the Decision to Exit

The decision to exit is examined for a cohort of over 12,000 plants established in 1976. Using a longitudinal data base, the performance of the establishments is analysed over the subsequent 10 years. The empirical evidence suggests that start-up size, ownership status, and the industry environment affect the likelihood of a start -up subsequently exiting. Plants with more employees during the start -up year are found to have a lower likelihood of exit than do smaller plants. Similarly, establishnwnts which are independent are found to have a lower likelihood of exit within the following years than do newly created establishments belonging to a multi-plant firm. However, the determinants of exit apparently vary along with the age of the establishment. Innovative activity is found to raise the likelihood of establishment exit in the short run but lower it in the longer run.     

Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing

All consumption-based models of asset pricing imply that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any asset reflects the effectiveness of holding that asset as a hedge against intertemporal variation in the marginal utility of consumption. For Treasury Bonds of various maturities, we find significant positive relations. Our empirical findings support the conclusion that investors must sell bonds short to hedge shocks to marginal utility, because realized bond returns tend to be high (low) when investors least (most) desire an additional dollar of consumption. Implications for special cases of the general consumption-based model are also discussed.     

Vertical Relationships in the Automotive Industry: Do They Matter?

In this note we examine how vertical relationships are related to the efficiency of the operations in the automotive production chain. We first provide an overview of the nature of supplier arrangements by comparing current practices in the countries Japan, US, and Germany. Current best practices show that vertical linkages in the automotive industry have shifted away from simple market transactions and now involve closer long-term interactions coupled however with subtle incentive elements. We outline the economic issues which are present in vertical relationships and include a brief account of differing theoretical perspectives. Then, we use a refined methodology to measure productivity at the industry level for the supplier industries automotive parts and metalworking and for the final assembly industry. It turns out that Japanese industries achieve the highest productivity level at the supplier and at the assembly level. We interpret the empirical results and relate the differences in vertical arrangemen s with the efficiency of both parts in the relation.     

Exposure to foreign media and changes in cultural traits: Evidence from naming patterns in France

Free trade in audio-visual services has faced opposition on the grounds that foreign media undermine domestic culture, and ultimately, global diversity. Using a long panel of French birth registries, we assess the media–culture link using name frequencies as a measure of tastes. Controlling for the number of people who currently have a name and unobserved name effects, our regressions show that media influences choices via selective imitation. Parents are much more likely to adopt media names that they associate with youth. Using estimated parameters, we simulate our model of name choice to reveal that, absent foreign media, fewer than 5% of French babies would have been named differently. Our simulations also suggest a positive effect of foreign media on the welfare of parents.