Growth of the relative prices of engineering products and the potential for improving the solvency of their users

The movement of the relative prices of engineering products over two periods, 1965–1991 and 1992–2004, is considered. Details of the calculation of a price increase index for machinery and equipment sold in 1991 are given. The potential of two approaches to attaining a drastic increase in the solvency of engineering product users over the forecast period, resulting in the corresponding boost in the output and purchases of engineering, manufacturing, and industrial products in general, is investigated.     

Forecasts for international financial series with VMD algorithms

Recent models with variational mode decomposition (VMD) have been applied to time-series forecasting. In this paper, we build a hybrid model named VMD–autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)–Taylor expansion forecasting (TEF) to increase accuracy and stability for predicting financial time series. We use VMD algorithms to decompose financial series into subseries. An ARIMA model is built to predict each mode’s linear component, and the pragmatic TEF model based on a tracking differentiator is applied to forecast of the nonlinear component. Then the forecasts of all subseries are assembled as a final forecast. Our empirical results of international stock indices demonstrate that the proposed hybrid approach surpasses several existing state-of-the-art hybrid models.     

Regional long-term forecasts: A synthesis of technological and economic approaches

The paper describes a long-term two-scenario forecast of the economy of the Far East, compiled as a synthesis of scientific-technological and general economic approaches, using a modeling program complex. The paper presents the results of probabilistic systemic transformations in the region’s economic and social environment for as long as until 2050. The forecast was based on a scientific and technological foresight and evaluations of scenarios of the dynamics of general economic parameters.     

The rationale for projected prices of demand on electricity for industry in Russia up to 2020

The paper presents a forecast of the demand price for commodities, which can be considered dual to the forecast for supply price. An algorithm for preparing the initial information is presented that allows one to take into account the features of the original data that determine the quality of the evaluation of the model parameters. We describe the extraction of input data for predicting the demand price from the data intended for determining the supply price.     

Long-term development of the Russian high technology complex under unstable growth of the world economy (model and forecast)

The paper presents a new model of main economics complexes relations as well the long term forecasting of Russia science-intensive and high-technology complex (2011–2025). The forecast terms include estimates of complex development changes under different scenarios of the global economy evolution.     

Spatial externalities in China regional economic growth

Using spatial econometric techniques, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the growth performances of Chinese prefectures over 1991 to 2007 period. Based on the Solow growth theory with technology spillovers, a Spatial Durbin growth model recently developed is employed to capture the spatial externalities. We find strong evidence of positive spatial dependence between Chinese prefectures after 1991. Apart from the usual divergence conclusions, we find evidence for significant conditional convergence force when the spatial spillover effects are controlled. Our results also indicate the competition effect of capital accumulation and urbanization growth among neighboring regions. Moreover, spatial convergence clubs are detected and the spatial interactions and growth behavior varies.     

Analysis of interregional differences in inflationary developments in the economy of Central Russia

The article presents an analysis of regional characteristics of inflationary developments in the economy of Central Russia. An analysis of the annual dynamics of base regional consumer price indices, as well as price indices for food products, nonfood items, and services during 2000–2011, is provided. An extrapolation inflation rate forecast for the regions of Central Russia for 2013–2014 is also presented. An econometric model that relates regional consumer price indices in 2008–2011 to price indices for food products, nonfood items, and services has been constructed. A typology of the regions of Central Russia is suggested based on multiple base regional consumer price indices for food and nonfood products, as well as services in 2008–2011.     

Innovation and exporting: evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

This paper investigates the relationship between innovation and the export behavior of firms using data from a representative panel of Spanish firms over 1991–2002. It presents a simple theoretical model of the firm decision to export and innovate that guides the econometric analysis. Consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model, the econometric results suggest a positive effect of firm innovation on the probability of participation in export markets. The results further reveal the heterogeneous effects of different types of innovations on the firm export participation. In particular, product upgrading appears to have a larger effect on the firm export participation than the introduction of cost-saving innovations. These findings are robust to firm unobserved heterogeneity, dynamic specifications, and to the use of instrumental variables to control for the potential endogeneity between innovation and exporting.     

Evaluation of investment projects based on a complex of interindustry and interregional models

This paper presents a methodical approach and complex of economic and mathematical models to evaluate the efficiency of large investment projects implemented on the basis of public private partnership mechanisms permitting to forecast public results of projects simultaneously implemented at the macro-, meso-, and microeconomic levels.     

Short-term forecast of interindustry output

This paper presents the main results of forecast calculations of the interindustry input-output balance and separate extrapolation calculations by trends for 1992–1994, 1997–1998, and 2006. These results are given in more detail in [1–3].     

Medium-term forecast of the dynamics of the development of the Russian economy

Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate.     

Scenario modeling of the stability of the russian budget system against external economic shocks in 2013–2015

The results of forecast modeling of the Russian budget system’s stability against external economic shocks are presented in the paper. Two scenarios are considered: Scenario 1 or “short-term crisis” with its acute phase lasting about three quarters (similarly to the crisis of 2008–2009) and Scenario 2 or “protracted crisis,” which implies a duration of crisis phenomena of about a year and a half (to put it hypothetically, in 2013–2014). On the basis of the scenario forecast modeling results, the conclusion is drawn that regional budgets are the weakest link of the Russian budget system. The crisis period is characterized by an urgent necessity of handing over a part of tax revenues received by the federal budget to the regional level and increasing money transfers to the budgets of federal subjects.     

Firm-level analysis of information network use and productivity in Japan

This paper presents firm-level micro analysis of information network use and the impact of such use on a firm's productivity. The positive impact of information network use on productivity growth is confirmed using METI's firm-level data for Japanese manufacturers and distributors from 1991 to 2000. In addition, the relationship between information networks and business networks is investigated, and it is found that these two types of networks are complementary in promoting productivity growth of a firm. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 121–137.     

A Re-Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy*

Abstract. This research re-examines whether there are differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts through a comparison of their annual earnings per share forecasts. The comparison of analyst forecast accuracy is made on both an ex post (within sample) and an ex ante (out of sample) basis. Early examinations of this issue by Richards (1976), Brown and Rozeff (1980), O'Brien (1987), Coggin and Hunter (1989), O'Brien (1990), and Butler and Lang (1991) were ex post and suggest the absence of analysts who can provide relatively more accurate forecasts over multiple years. Contrary to the results of prior research and consistent with the belief in the popular press, we document that differences do exist in financial analysts' ex post forecast accuracy. We show that the previous studies failed to find differences in forecast accuracy due to inadequate (or no) control for differences in the recency of forecasts issued by the analysts. It has been well documented in the literature that forecast recency is positively related to forecast accuracy (Crichfield, Dyckman, and Lakonishok 1978; O'Brien 1988; Brown 1991). Thus, failure to control for forecast recency may reduce the power of tests, making it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of no differences in forecast accuracy even if they do exist. In our analysis, we control for the differences in recency of analysts' forecasts using two different approaches. First, we use an estimated generalized least squares estimation procedure that captures the recency-induced effects in the residuals of the model. Second, we use a matched-pair design whereby we measure the relative forecast accuracy of an analyst by comparing his/her forecast error to the forecast error of another randomly selected analyst making forecasts for the same firm in the same year on or around the same date. Using both approaches, we find that differential forecast accuracy does exist amongst analysts, especially in samples with minimum forecast horizons of five and 60 trading days. We show that these differences are not attributable to differences in the forecast issuance frequency of the financial analysts. In sum, after controlling for firm, year, forecast recency, and forecast issuance frequency of individual analysts, the analyst effect persists. To validate our findings, we examine whether the differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts persist in holdout periods. Analysts were assigned a “superior” (“inferior”) status for a firm-year in the estimation sample using percentile rankings on the distribution of absolute forecast errors for that firm-year. We use estimation samples of one- to four-year duration, and consider two different definitions of analyst forecast superiority. Analysts were classified as firm-specific “superior” if they maintained a “superior” status in every year of the estimation sample. Furthermore, they were classified as industry-specific “superior” if they were deemed firm-specific “superior” with respect to at least two firms and firm-specific “inferior” with respect to no firm in that industry. Using either definition, we find that analysts classified as “superior” in estimation samples generally remain superior in holdout periods. In contrast, we find that analysts identified as “inferior” in estimation samples do not remain inferior in holdout periods. Our results suggest that some analysts' earnings forecasts should be weighted higher than others when formulating composite earnings expectations. This suggestion is predicated on the assumption that capital markets distinguish between analysts who are ex ante superior, and that they utilize this information when formulating stock prices. Our study provides an ex ante framework for identifying those analysts who appear to be superior. When constructing weighted forecasts, a one-year estimation period should be used because we obtain the strongest results of persistence in this case.     

Is the post-reform growth of the Indian manufacturing sector efficiency driven? Empirical evidence from plant-level data

It is generally believed that the structural reforms that were introduced in India following the macro-economic crisis of 1991 ushered in competition and forced companies to become more efficient. However, whether the post-1991 growth is an outcome of more efficient use of resources or greater use of factor inputs remains an open empirical question. In this paper, we use plant-level data from 1989–1990 and 2000–2001 to address this question. Our results indicate that while there was an increase in the productivity of factor inputs during the 1990s, most of the growth in value added is explained by growth in the use of factor inputs. We also find that median technical efficiency declined in all but one of the industries between 1989–1990 and 2000–2001, and that change in technical efficiency explains a very small proportion of the change in gross value added.     

Collateral value,firm borrowing,and forbearance lending: an empirical study of Taiwan

This paper investigates whether banks exercise forbearance lending to troubled firms by presenting a stylized model and then testing the hypotheses implied by this model, using firm-level data of Taiwan. During 1991–1996 when the economy started to show signs of weakening, banks are found to have exercised forbearance lending across all types of firms, hoping that the economy would soon recover to salvage those ailing firms. During 1997–2001 when the recession went even deeper, banks were found no longer to forbear loans. This period saw a more rapid decline in property prices, which coincided with a wave of asset liquidation during this period.     

基于组合预测模型的我国GDP预测分析

利用中国1990—2009年的GDP数据,在建立指数曲线模型、ARIMA模型和三次多项式模型的基础上,以误差平方和最小为最优准则建立组合预测模型,对中国2010—2015年的GDP值进行预测。结果显示,组合预测模型的精度高于各个单项预测模型;2010—2015年的年均增长率为14.79%,我国国民经济仍以较快的速度增长。     

China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model*

The present paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework; namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that (i) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (ii) driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–1990, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–1996 and the post‐1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.     

A NONLINEAR EXTENSION OF THE NBER MODEL FOR SHORT-RUN FORECASTING OF BUSINESS CYCLES

To avoid the pitfalls of the widely used NBER model, in this paper we have adopted neural networks to forecast business cycles. We find that our model has overcome some of the main deficiencies of the classical leading indicators model: first, the model was able to correctly forecast all reference points in in‐sample and out‐of‐sample data; second, the model can forecast the future value of reference series; and third, the model has a constant forecast horizon. Sensitivity analysis suggests there are some nonlinear relationships between the reference variable and selected leading indicators. This explains why we were able to improve the forecasting performance of the original model.     

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.