Structural Features of Female Employment Status and Earnings Mobility: The Experience in Germany

Structural changes in basic economic indicators, changes in traditional role patterns, and in female employment behavior shed light on the performance of the European labor markets in the 90s. This paper focuses on the cyclical sensitivity of women's employment status and earnings position in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we test the hypothesis that labor market adjustments are not gender-neutral but affect women's employment status and women's relative earnings position to a greater extent than those of men. Cross-sectional as well as longitudinal analysis indicate positive effects on female employment status and earnings position during a period with worsening economic indicators. Logistic regression analysis confirms an increasing likelihood of an upward earnings mobility for women in the 90s. Notwithstanding these positive trends the results show that - due to social norms and attitudes - women are still discriminated against in the labor market and in terms of their relative earnings position. Thus social policy is called upon to improve women's social and employment conditions.     

The Effects of Earnings Guidance on Investors’ Perceptions of Firm Credibility in a Two-Firm Setting

This study investigates how a peer firm's earnings guidance affects investors' credibility assessments of a target firm. Results suggest that when both a target firm and a peer firm provide earnings guidance, contrast effects occur such that the more accurate the earnings guidance of the target firm relative to the peer, the greater are investors' credibility assessments for the target. However, such contrast effect diminishes as the target firm's earnings guidance becomes more accurate. On the contrary, when a peer provides earnings guidance but the target firm does not, assimilation effects as opposed to contrast effects dominate investors' credibility judgments.     

A longitudinal analysis of earnings change in Canada

Abstract.  We use tax‐based longitudinal microdata for 1982–99 to (i) examine how earnings distributions have shifted, (ii) identify changes in earnings mobility patterns, and (iii) replicate and update Beaudry and Green's cohort analysis of age‐earnings profiles. We find: (i) increased polarization of men's earnings and marked decline in real earnings of workers aged 20–4; (ii) general decline in men's earnings mobility, while women's mobility has increased for young and prime‐age workers; and (iii) upward drift in earnings profiles of 1960s–1970s entry cohorts and downward shifts for 1980s–1990s cohorts (largely confirming Beaudry and Green's findings), but suggestive of steepening profiles for the 1990s cohorts. JEL classification code : J31,O33     

Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.     

Risk compensation in wages – a replication

We use data from Germany, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain to test for the effect of earnings variation on individual earnings. We replicate estimates for the USA and find that the variance of earnings in an occupation affects individual wages positively while the skewness of earnings has a negative effect. Both results are in conformity with wage compensation for risk averse workers. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 We are grateful to two anonymous referees for valuable comments.     

A New Look at Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Compared to the U.S

Motivated by contradictory evidence on intergenerational mobility in Germany, I present a cross‐country comparison of Germany and the U.S., reassessing the question of whether intergenerational mobility is higher in Germany than in the U.S. I can reproduce the standard result from the literature, which states that the German intergenerational elasticity estimates are lower than those for the U.S. However, based on highly comparable data, even a reasonable degree of variation in the sampling rules leads to similar estimates in both countries. I find no evidence for non‐linearities along the fathers' earnings distribution. In contrast, the analysis shows that mobility is higher for the sons at the lowest quartile of the sons' earnings distribution in both countries. In Germany this result is mainly driven by a high downward mobility of sons with fathers in the upper middle part of the earnings distribution. The corresponding pattern is clearly less pronounced in the U.S.     

Wage protection systems, segregation and gender pay inequalities: West Germany, the Netherlands and Great Britain

This paper provides an empirical test of Rubery and Fagan's(1995) hypothesis that gender inequalities are influenced primarilyby the comprehensiveness of the overall wage protection systemin a country and by the extent of gender segregation. Genderdiscrimination in earnings is compared in West Germany, theNetherlands and Great Britain using 1989 ISSP data. Human capitalearnings functions for married males and married females areestimated. Discrimination is measured using standard decompositiontechniques. Earnings discrimination against females in the morecomprehensive systems was 37% in West Germany and 39% in theNetherlands, much less than the 61% found for the less comprehensivelyregulated Great Britain, the latter figure being higher thanprevious estimates using earlier data. Gender segregation isdemonstrated to have contributed to the relative magnitude ofdiscrimination in Great Britain.     

The New York Times and Wall Street Journal: Does Their Coverage of Earnings Announcements Cause “Stale” News to Become “New” News?

Recent research suggests that the stock market reacts to stale information if it is reported in the media because it is gives the impression of being “new” news. The objective of this study is to provide a unique test of this hypothesis using the time-series properties of quarterly earnings. It is well documented that seasonally differenced quarterly earnings for adjacent quarters are positively correlated. Therefore a component of current quarter earnings when reported is news that was known or predictable at the end of the prior quarter and thus is old news. We find for those firms that receive media coverage in the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that the price reaction at the time of the announcement of current earnings to past quarter's seasonally differenced quarterly earnings is greater than those firms that do not receive media coverage. The result is consistent with stale earnings information being given the appearance of new information resulting in a further price reaction. This suggests that the stale information hypothesis and media coverage could be a partial explanation for post-earnings announcement drift.     

Lifetime Earnings, Discount Rate, Ability and the Demand for Post–compulsory Education in Men in England and Wales

Human capital theory suggests educational investments are made based on expected returns over the lifetime. Most other work in this field, particularly using British data, is based on demand models estimated in reduced form, with no earnings measures, or crudely constructed earnings measures, based on one or two earnings observations per individual.
We present a structural model of demand for educational investment which includes estimates of earnings paths for educational options as determinants of educational choice. This provides us with directly interpretable parameter estimates. The discount rate is also determined within our demand model.
Ability controlled earnings profiles are estimated by matching individuals from the General Household Survey to individuals in similar occupations from the National Child Development Survey (NCDS).
Our results show that expected earnings profiles vary according to observed ability and educational choice. Results from the demand model show that expected lifetime earnings have a significant impact on educational choice.
Other socio–demographic factors, particularly social class, also exhibit significant influences on the education decision. We estimate the discount rate to be lower than reported in other studies.     

The earnings of Canadian immigrant and native-born males

This paper examines the economic attainment of Canadian immigrants. Although foreign-born males initially earn less than the native-born, their earnings rise more rapidly with Canadian labour market experience, and after 14years their earnings equal and exceed those of the native population. It is also shown that the use of Mincer's identity leads to biased results when estimating the earnings of the immigrant population.     

An equilibrium search model with optimal wage-experience contracts

The objective of this paper is to study equilibrium in a labour market, in which workers search on the job and firms offer wage contracts conditional upon workers' experience and employment status. In this environment, the optimal contract can be described by a promotion contract. The distribution of contract offers is dispersed within and across experience levels. As workers stay longer in the market and promotion dates get closer, the option value of holding a job increases. Firms offer early promotions to attract more experienced workers. A positive relation between experience and earnings can arise purely from firms' optimal response to labour market competition brought about by workers' on-the-job search. We characterise the offer distribution for each experience level and show how these change with labour market conditions.     

New insights into the nonlinearity of Okun's law

We estimate Okun's relationship for four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain) with a nonparametric procedure, without imposing a previous specific functional form. We apply the non parametric MARS methodology that endogenously detects multiple thresholds and therefore is able to identify multiple possible regimes. In addition, we control for the Euro area crisis to capture possible effects of the economic activity of neighbour countries on domestic unemployment rate variations. Our results confirm the existence of two regimes in each country but significantly different thresholds across countries. The form of Okun's relationship for Germany, France and the Netherlands are similar and quite different from Spain where it is much steeper. Differences between Okun coefficients below and above the threshold are consistent with the “firm's risk aversion hypothesis”, but different thresholds across countries may be related to the “labour hoarding hypothesis”. The negative value of the threshold in Spain may reflect the “institutional rigidity hypothesis”. Finally, the fact that the Euro area crisis may affect the domestic Okun's law is consistent with decision makers with risk aversion who use information from the economic area they are operating in. These results not only potentially enrich Okun's law estimations but also open the debate over how the different theoretical hypothesis intervene and shape Okun's law for each country.     

Gender Roles and the Division of Unpaid Work in Spanish Households

Abstract

This paper examines the role of the doing-gender hypothesis versus traditional models of the household in explaining how the woman's share of home labor varies with relative earnings. The findings, using the 2002–3 Spanish Time Use Survey (STUS; Spanish Statistical Office 2003), support the doing-gender hypothesis in the case of housework: a woman's relative share of housework fails to decrease with her relative earnings beyond the point where her earnings are the same as her husband's. In contrast, a woman's share of childcare time displays a flat pattern over the distribution of her spouse's relative earnings. This last result is neither consistent with traditional theories of the household, nor with the doing-gender hypothesis. It can, however, still be interpreted in light of social norms, whereby women specialize in this type of caring activity regardless of their relative productivity or bargaining power.     

Language training,language proficiency and earnings of immigrants in Norway

This paper uses a simple probit model to determine the impact of language training on the language proficiency of Third World immigrant men in Norway. It also estimates the labour market returns to Norwegian language proficiency. The results show that immigrants who participate in language training programme are more likely to acquire speaking and reading proficiencies in Norwegian language than those who do not. Contrary to expectation, language proficiency has no significant effect on immigrants' earnings. A probable explanation may be that immigrants need Norwegian language proficiency to get into jobs in the Norwegian labour market. Once they are in employment, their wages are not necessarily determined by their proficiency in Norwegian. Consistent with the assimilation hypothesis, earlier waves of immigrants have higher earnings than do more recent waves, and part of the initial earnings deficit experienced by more recent immigrants can be attributed to language deficiency. There was no evidence of sample selection bias in the earnings equation.     

Do price-earnings ratios explain investment decisions better than Tobin’s q? Evidence from German firm-level data

This article tests the additional information content of price-earnings ratios, with respect to Tobin’s q, in explaining firms’ investment behaviour. While Tobin’s q describes the expected future earnings related to those projected by the book value, the price-earnings ratio compares future growth of earnings based on the projection of current earnings. In other words, a high price-earnings ratio might indicate that investors are willing to rely on future earnings growth, even though current earnings are low. By using an unbalanced panel of about 500 listed firms from Germany over the period 1987–2007, we find that including the price-earnings ratio in the investment equation does not change the explanatory power of Tobin’s q. Most notably, the price-earnings ratio exerts a positive and significant impact on investment. These results are robust to the inclusion of a measure of the firm’s internal funds and of fixed effects and also to the use of different estimators.     

Negotiating Domestic Labor: Women's Earnings and Housework Time in Australia

Abstract

Recent research in the United States has found that wives' absolute earnings level is more important than their earnings relative to their spouses in determining time spent on housework. Utilizing data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, this article examines whether women's housework time in Australia is associated with relative or absolute earnings and extends previous work by examining possible mechanisms linking women's earnings with their time on housework, outsourcing through the use of paid domestic help, and unmeasured heterogeneity among women. The research finds that women's housework time is more strongly affected by women's relative earnings than by their absolute earnings, and neither outsourcing nor unobserved heterogeneity can explain the relationship between women's earnings and their housework time in Australia. These results indicate that Australia has a strong male-breadwinner institutional framework that continues to hinder gender equality in paid and unpaid work.     

ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN WOMEN AND THEIR PARTNERS: AN EAST AND WEST GERMAN COMPARISON AFTER REUNIFICATION

abstract

This article compares women's and men's economic relations in East and West Germany following the 1990 reunification to exemplify the impact of varying opportunity structures on women's relative contribution to family income. West Germany's takeover set in motion a rapid transformation of East German institutions and employment structures. The analysis shows that women in West Germany became less dependent on their partners in the 1990s, largely because fewer women were housewives without earnings. In contrast, the contributions of women to the family economy in East Germany fell between 1990 and 1996. Afterwards, women in East Germany regained some of their economic power because of their partners' increasing difficulties sustaining employment. A multivariate analysis showed that the fact that women in West Germany were more likely to work less or not at all – especially if they were married or had children – accounted for much of the difference.     

Career, experience and returns to human capital: is the dual labour market hypothesis relevant for the UK?

This paper investigates the relationship between career status, labour market experience and returns to human capital accumulation in the context of a two-tier, career and non-career labour market. Using micro data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), this study detects wage and employment mechanisms that differ between these two tiers of workers. The paper finds no support for the hypothesis of strict duality, by which the returns to education are expected to differ across labour market segments, with the returns in career employment being high and positive and the returns in the non-career sector being close to zero. The paper, however, finds support for significant returns to current tenure only in the career sector and also for the scarring hypothesis, according to which part-time employment and unemployment experience have a negative effect on participation and earnings in the career sector. Finally, there is evidence that only non-career earnings are significantly affected by local demand conditions, in contrast to earnings in the career sector. Career status is modelled as an endogenous variable subject to an initial job choice.     

Is firm-sponsored education viable?

This paper challenges the commonly-held human capital assumption that profit-maximizing firms cannot invest in their employees' general training. We argue that general training is provided to equilibrate a hostage-type relationship that exists when firms and workers share investments in specific training, and that the firm's investment in general training is not necessarily subject to poaching hazards. We then test the viability hypothesis empirically, using data from a longitudinal survey of natural and social scientists and engineers. Our results suggest that (1) firm investments in general training programs are not necessarily paid for by foregone earnings, and (2) turnover rates do not rise as a function of firm-sponsored general training. These results are discussed in terms of the current policy debate over corporate education expenditures.     

The relations among accounting conservatism,institutional investors and earnings manipulation

Most scholars have indicated corporations using accounting conservatism to reduce earnings manipulation, although certain scholars believe that firms have more incentive to increase earnings manipulation. Institutional investors play an important external monitoring role, and affect firm's earnings manipulation. Previous studies adopted accruals as an earnings manipulation proxy to detect the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation. We further investigate the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation by using Benford's law. Our results indicate that firms with more conservative financial reporting have less probability of engaging in earnings-manipulative activities. We also find the negative association between earnings management and institutional investor shareholdings. However, if corporate financial statements tend toward conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings could increase managers' incentive to manage earnings. Our findings have important implications for investors to make investment decisions.