Trend following,risk parity and momentum in commodity futures

We show that combining momentum and trend following strategies for individual commodity futures can lead to portfolios which offer attractive risk adjusted returns which are superior to simple momentum strategies; when we expose these returns to a wide array of sources of systematic risk we find that robust alpha survives. Experimenting with risk parity portfolio weightings has limited impact on our results though in particular is beneficial to long–short strategies; the marginal impact of applying trend following methods far outweighs momentum and risk parity adjustments in terms of risk-adjusted returns and limiting downside risk. Overall this leads to an attractive strategy for investing in commodity futures and emphasises the importance of trend following as an investment strategy in the commodity futures context.     

The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation

We analyse time-varying risk premia and the implications for portfolio choice. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, we estimate a multivariate regime-switching model for the Carhart (1997) four-factor model. We find two clearly separable regimes with different mean returns, volatilities, and correlations. In the High-Variance Regime, only value stocks deliver a good performance, whereas in the Low-Variance Regime, the market portfolio and momentum stocks promise high returns. Regime-switching induces investors to change their portfolio style over time depending on the investment horizon, the risk aversion, and the prevailing regime. Value investing seems to be a rational strategy in the High-Variance Regime, momentum investing in the Low-Variance Regime. An empirical out-of-sample backtest indicates that this switching strategy can be profitable, but the overall forecasting ability for the regime-switching model seems to be weak compared to the iid model.     

Hedging,Financing and Investment Decisions: A Simultaneous Equations Framework

We empirically investigate the interactions among hedging, financing, and investment decisions. We argue that the way in which hedging affects a firm's financing and investing decisions differs for firms with different growth opportunities. We find that high growth firms increase their investment, but not leverage, by hedging. However, we also find that firms with few investment opportunities use derivatives to increase their leverage.     

Style investing and firm innovation

We document that transient, dedicated and quasi-indexed institutional investors exhibit a high degree of within-group heterogeneity with respect to their investment styles (i.e., growth, value, and balanced). We find that growth institutional investors enhance firm innovation in terms of R&D expenditures, R&D intensity, quantity and quality of patents and patent radicalness while value institutional investors impede innovation. Balanced investors have no significant association with innovation. Findings are consistent with style investing literature that growth and value styles are substitutes. Using investment styles, we present evidence that reconcile literature’s mixed findings on how transient and dedicated investors affect R&D and innovation, and why quasi-indexed investors, the largest group among all investors, have an insignificant effect. We also show that the effect of institutional investors depends on the firm’s relative level of innovativeness.     

Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers

We make use of a new database on daily currency fund manager returns over a three-year period, 2005–2008. This higher frequency data allows us to estimate both alpha measures of performance and beta style factors on a yearly basis, which in turn allows us to test for persistence. We find no evidence to support alpha persistence; a manager’s alpha in one year is not significantly related to his alpha in the prior year. On the other hand, there is substantial evidence for style persistence; funds that rely on carry, trend or value trading or with a long/short bias toward currency volatility are likely to maintain that style in the following year. In addition, we are able to examine the performance of managers that survive through the entire sample period, versus those that drop out. We find significant differences in both the investment styles of living versus deceased funds, as well as their realized alpha performance measures. We conjecture that both style differences and ineffective market timing, rather than market conditions, have impacted performance outcomes and induced some managers to close their funds.     

Momentum investing and the asset allocation decision

This study examines the active asset allocation decisions of Australian multisector fund managers to determine whether active fund managers engage in momentum strategies. We find evidence supporting the existence of momentum investing in active asset allocation strategies. This evidence exists in the Australian Equities, Australian Fixed Interest and Listed Property asset classes. Interestingly, balanced funds adopt contrarian strategies in the International Equities asset class. We also examine whether there is any association between a fund's market timing skill and the execution of momentum strategies. Our results show that fund managers with no market timing skill are momentum investors.     

Altruism and egoism in investment decisions

We provide survey evidence that personal values have an impact on individual investment decisions, in particular preferences for socially responsible investing. Our findings show that there is a positive link between altruistic values and the relative importance of social responsibility. This effect is stronger when individuals believe that they can make a positive social or environmental impact with their investments, or when they feel morally obliged to invest responsibly. If altruistic individuals associate responsible investments with higher returns, it decreases their motivation to invest responsibly. Egoistic values are negatively associated with the decision to invest responsibly, unless individuals associate responsible investing with higher returns.     

Country and currency diversification of bond investments: do they really make sense for Swiss investors?

The inclusion of hedged or unhedged foreign currency bonds within a strategic asset allocation is a crucial decision which should be analyzed carefully. The goal of this paper is to provide a contribution to this analysis by focusing particularly on the time horizon of the investment. Results are analyzed from the perspective of a Swiss investor. We find that over the last 21 years, investing in bonds denominated in Swiss Francs has been clearly less efficient in terms of risk-adjusted returns than investing in a hedged global bond portfolio. For short-term investors, we find robust evidence against the hypothesis of investing in unhedged foreign currency bonds. The picture changes dramatically, however, when we consider an investment horizon of 6 years and the normal case of balanced portfolios including also equities and domestic bonds. In this case, the optimal strategy for the period we analyzed would have been to hedge only the exposure to US dollar bonds.      

来自不同国家(地区)QFII交易策略的比较研究

本文对来自不同国家(地区)QFII的交易策略进行了比较分析。从时间序列的变化情况上我们发现,来自欧洲和东亚的QFII在整体上采取惯性交易策略,但波动幅度很大,来自北美的QFII则更倾向于采取反转交易策略。从整体均值的比较中我们发现,我国市场上的QFII整体倾向于采用惯性交易策略,其中来自欧洲的QFII的惯性交易行为程度最大,来自东亚的QFII采用惯性交易策略的时间较长。本文还发现金融危机对QFII的交易策略产生了显著影响。根据上述发现本文提出了完善我国QFII制度的建议。     

Risk and return of short-duration equity investments

We analyze short-duration equity investments using traded claims on index dividends. We show that investment strategies with constant short maturity outperform a systematic long position in the underlying equity index on a risk-adjusted basis and in absolute terms. Furthermore, we find higher international diversification benefits for this strategy, compared to traditional equity indices. We relate the observed outperformance to market downside exposure, in particular an options-based downside risk factor. We use three alternative models to extract ex-ante risk premia implied in the prices of dividend derivatives and find evidence for substantial time variation in expected returns.     

Investment style positioning of UK unit trusts

We investigate the investment style positioning of UK equity unit trusts (mutual funds) over the 24-year period from 1987 to 2010 and assess if fund manager claims to follow a particular style strategy are evidenced in practice. Generally, UK unit trusts do not, in fact, consistently track declared styles but subject their funds to style switching or rotation. Nor do funds switch to become simple index trackers, as has widely been reported, but exhibit a mix of behaviour that we refer to as ‘market-momentum styling’. Our contribution is to offer a coherent, end-to-end picture of the evolution of investment styles over an economic cycle. In so doing we evidence that fund style positioning is subject to rotation and becomes subordinated to past portfolio performance or style momentum. Even this result is conditional as we go on to demonstrate that style investment is very likely to be driven by broader economic conditions, thereby creating market-momentum styling by default. This is arguably not a style at all and calls into question the intent behind fund ‘strategies’.     

Hedging,financing, and investment decisions: Theory and empirical tests

In this paper we theoretically and empirically examine the interaction between hedging, financing, and investment decisions. A simple equilibrium model with costly financial distress suggests that as firms become more efficient at risky investments vis a vis low risk investments, they will borrow less, invest more in risky assets, and hedge more. The model also predicts a positive relationship between hedging and leverage – a result consistent with debt capacity arguments. We test the model empirically using a simultaneous equations framework to investigate the determinants of firm-level hedging, financing and investing decisions. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the hedging, financing and investment decisions are jointly determined. In addition, we find strong support for the central hypothesis that firms more efficient investing in risky technologies more aggressively hedge and use less debt financing in order to maximize their comparative advantage.     

Does sustainable investing reduce portfolio risk? A multilevel analysis

This study complements and extends prior research on the risk mitigation role of sustainable investing. We use a continuous measure of funds' sustainability traits, rather than a categorical approach, and assess impact on risk directly rather than by looking at fund performance in up versus down markets. We find that sustainable investing plays a significant role in mitigating total, systematic, and idiosyncratic risk of equity funds, even after controlling for other fund characteristics. Further evidence indicates that the explanation for the risk reduction role of sustainable funds largely runs through traits of the firms held in the funds.     

Socially Responsible Investing by Universities and Colleges

We analyze the socially responsible investing (SRI) practices of universities and colleges. Although SRI may align with an institution's mission and enhance its “brand,” these activities may also arise from agency problems. We find evidence of both effects. Consistent with branding effects, we find significant differences between independent and church‐affiliated schools, we find that highly selective and elite schools do not seek differentiation through SRI and are unlikely to sacrifice returns for SRI, and we find that Less Selective schools appear to regard costs of SRI as branding investments. Consistent with agency problems, attributes of investment committees bear on policy choices. For independent schools, larger committees and those where professional representation is low are likely to screen, allow sustainability considerations to influence investment choices, and vote proxies along SRI lines. “Social boards,” those with more alumni and less investments expertise, appear more oriented toward generating donations and less focused on investment policy.     

Riding the yield curve: a spanning analysis

The average return on long-term bonds exceeds the return on short-term bills by a large amount over short investment horizons. A riding-the-yield-curve investment strategy takes advantage of the higher returns on longer term bonds. This strategy involves the purchase of bonds with maturities longer than the investment horizon and the sale of these bonds, before they mature, at the end of the investment horizon. Most of the literature that evaluates this strategy compares only ex post average returns or Sharpe ratios. In this paper, we use spanning tests to provide formal statistical evidence on the benefits of investing in long bonds when the investment horizon is short. The results for both the United States and Canada indicate that an investor with a short horizon is better off investing in short-term debt instruments than long-term bonds.     

The Effect of Socially Responsible Investing on Portfolio Performance

More and more investors apply socially responsible screens when building their stock portfolios. This raises the question whether these investors can increase their performance by incorporating such screens into their investment process. To answer this question we implement a simple trading strategy based on socially responsible ratings from the KLD Research & Analytics: Buy stocks with high socially responsible ratings and sell stocks with low socially responsible ratings. We find that this strategy leads to high abnormal returns of up to 8.7% per year. The maximum abnormal returns are reached when investors employ the best‐in‐class screening approach, use a combination of several socially responsible screens at the same time, and restrict themselves to stocks with extreme socially responsible ratings. The abnormal returns remain significant even after taking into account reasonable transaction costs.     

中国A股市场存在品质溢价吗?

本文从价值投资的核心理念出发,基于盈利性、成长性、安全性、分红能力四个维度构建复合品质指标,并通过分析品质溢价在中国A股市场中的存在性来探讨价值投资的可行性和有效性。实证结果表明:(1)中国A股市场上存在显著为正的品质溢价,且品质溢价在控制其他相关变量后依然稳健存在;(2)高品质股票具有大市值、高成长特征,且品质溢价在大市值、高盈利的分组中更加显著;(3)品质溢价在不同时期下均能稳定存在;(4)中国A股市场上的品质溢价并非源于高风险承担,相反,由正向反馈偏好、博彩偏好、套利限制引起的错误定价有助于解释品质溢价。本文结论佐证了价值投资策略在中国A股市场的可行性和有效性,为培育良好投资理念、抑制过度投机、促进中国股市合理健康发展等提供了经验证据。     

High frequency momentum trading with cryptocurrencies

Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies have increasingly been discussed as alternatives to traditional fiat currencies. These digital currencies have garnered significant interest from investment banks and portfolio managers as a potential option to diversify the financial risk from investing in other assets. This interest has also extended to the general public who have seen cryptocurrencies as a way of making a quick profit. This paper provides a first insight into the applicability of high frequency momentum trading strategies for cryptocurrencies. We implemented two variations of a signal-based momentum trading strategy: (i) a time series method; (ii) a cross sectional method. These strategies were tested on a selection of seven of the largest cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization. The results show that there exists potential for the momentum strategy to be used successfully for cryptocurrency trading in a high frequency setting. A comparison with a passive portfolio strategy is proposed, which shows abnormal returns when compared with the momentum strategies. Furthermore, the robustness of our results are checked through the application of the momentum strategies other sample periods. We also compare the performances of the signal-based momentum strategies with returns-based versions of the strategies. It is shown that the signal-based strategy outperforms the returns-based strategy. However, there appears to be no single parameterization of the signal-based strategies that can generate the greatest cumulative return over all sample periods.     

Riding the waves of technology through the decades: The relation between industry-level information technology intensity and the cost of equity capital

This paper examines the effect that information technology (IT) investments have on the industry cost of equity capital. We find that industry IT intensity, defined as the relative amount of IT investment to total fixed asset expenditures, is negatively related to the industry cost of equity capital. These results indicate that industries with higher levels of IT investment have lower cost of equity capital. We also find that the relation between IT intensity and cost of equity capital changes over time. Initially, investors viewed IT investments as risky ventures and demanded higher levels of cost of equity (or higher return on their investment) for those industries investing in IT. However, beginning in the 1980s, as IT became more reliable, more cost effective, and had the ability to transform businesses, investors viewed IT Intensity as a positive business strategy with less associated risks and reduced their required cost of equity capital (or lower return on their investment). Extrapolating from our industry results, IT investments allow firms to potentially raise capital at a lower price so they have more assets to employ, indicating that IT investments can be a key factor for business success.