Did the banking sector foresee the financial crisis? Evidence from risk factor disclosures

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Beginning in December 2005, the SEC required registrants to discuss “the most significant factors that make the company risky” under the...     

Which form of hedging matters — Operational or financial? Evidence from the US oil and gas sector

We examine the extent and impact of operational and financial hedging on commodity price risk in US oil and gas companies. We find significant exposure to underlying commodity movements. Using a combination of hand collected and publicly available data we examine the impact of hedging strategies. We find no evidence that operational hedging, defined here as multinationality, is effective. In contrast, we find that financial hedging is significant and impactful. Sub-period analysis shows that the effectiveness of financial hedging diminishes when commodity price volatility is high.     

Do small businesses adjust their capital structure? Evidence from the global financial crisis in Japan

We investigate the extent to which small businesses adjust their capital structures to target levels when their leverage increases substantially during a financial crisis. We examine Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee (ECG) program during the 2008 global financial crisis. The increased leverage from the use of the ECG program during the crisis increased the probability of default. Additionally, small businesses adjusted their leverage ratios to the target range before the crisis. However, such adjustments were weak during and after the crisis, particularly for target firms in the ECG program.     

Is financial advice a cure-all or the icing on the cake for financial literacy? Evidence from financial market participation in China

We examine how financial advice interacts with financial literacy to shape household decisions on stock market participation in China. Particularly, we investigate how the effect of financial advice varies with economic expectations, preferences for asset diversification and the level of financial literacy. Feeding the data of 5274 households into a Probit model that predicts the probability of holding stocks, we find that, while an increase in financial literacy significantly raises the stock market participation of all households, seeking financial advice only increases the participation for those households which have a preference for asset diversification or which have an optimistic expectation about the economy. Moreover, the effect of financial advice is concentrated on households with high financial literacy, implying that an insufficient level of financial literacy is the reason for the poor performance of financial advice in China. We also examine if there are influential trust or quality concerns which would reduce the effectiveness of financial advice but we find no significant evidence for it.     

How does corporate social responsibility affect financial performance,financial stability,and financial inclusion in the banking sector? Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the financial performance, financial inclusion, and financial stability of the banking sector, focusing on annual data for 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2008–2017. The results suggest that CSR, as well as age and size, has a positive impact on all three factors. However, high levels of leverage reduce financial inclusion and financial stability, while financial inclusion is also negatively associated with the tangibility of assets.     

Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute

This study examines the effects of the US–China trade dispute on the informational linkages and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets. Using the daily price data of four assets representing the real and financial sectors in China during 2016–2019, empirical findings suggest that the futures–spot correlations for the stock index, copper, and corn markets have increased significantly during the trade dispute. In contrast, sharp declines in the dynamic correlations between gold futures and spot markets, as gold is a safe haven asset, are observed during the event window. During uncertainty disturbance (i.e., the trade dispute), the futures–spot cointegrated relationships in the gold and corn markets are found to adjust more quickly and efficiently, whereas the correction speeds of the market deviations for the stock index and copper market are moderately slower. With the intensive integration of market expectations with uncertainty shocks, the economic shocks of trade disputes tend to remarkably improve the pricing efficiency of China's futures markets, except for the gold futures market. China's spot markets, however, seem to be more sensitive to the noise trades and information disturbances arising from the trade dispute.     

Are related-party transactions beneficial or detrimental in emerging markets? New evidence of financial services agreements from China

This paper examines a new and underexplored form of related-party transactions in which Chinese listed companies sign financial services agreements with affiliated finance companies within the same business group. With FSAs, listed companies can readily finance through internal capital markets. However, some concerns controlling shareholders can use FSAs to embezzle funds of listed companies legitimately, thereby expropriating the wealth of minority shareholders. Using a staggered difference-in-differences model with fixed effects, we empirically examine the economic consequences of FSAs. We document that FSAs are detrimental to listed companies' market valuation and operating performance. This phenomenon mainly concentrates on companies without financial constraints and those with lower bankruptcy risks. Further analysis shows that sound corporate governance could inhibit the signing of FSAs ex-ante. This paper contributes to the literature on the economic consequences of related-party transactions in emerging markets. It also provides empirical support that the internal capital market of business groups in China is inefficient and offers controlling shareholders opportunities for tunneling.     

Did amakudari undermine the effectiveness of regulator monitoring in Japan?

The principal–agent problem between the regulator, regulated banks, and taxpayers is critical to the viability of the financial system’s safety net. There exists the danger that the regulator will collude with regulated banks to pursue their benefits at the expense of taxpayers, thereby reducing effectiveness of financial supervision. This paper proposes that the human relationship prevailing between the regulatory authorities and private banks referred to as “amakudari” is a form of collusion between the regulator and banks that endangers the safety net mechanism in Japan. Statistical analysis of data on regional banks shows that those banks accepting post-retirement officials from the Ministry of Finance have reduced capital adequacy levels and increased non-performing loans. Thus, the statistical result supports the hypothesis proposed in this paper.     

Does the strength of the legal systems matter for trade in insurance and financial services?

This paper investigates if the strength of the legal system impacts on the trade in insurance and financial services in the high-income OECD and developing countries. Our findings reveal a statistically significant positive correlation of rule of law and regulatory quality with the exports and imports of insurance and financial services. Our empirical findings also reveal a negative and statistically significant correlation of contract enforcement with the exports and imports of insurance and financial services. We conclude that strengthening the rule of law and contract enforcement mechanisms can facilitate higher levels of trade in insurance and financial services.     

Does accounting choice influence US investment in non‐US companies? Evidence from US institutional investment in Australian companies

Previous research asserts that companies that choose accounting methods more familiar to investors reduce information asymmetry and increase credibility of their financial statements to those investors, thereby attracting higher levels of foreign investment. This study examines the variation in accounting policies associated with institutional investment in Australian equity. The results suggest that large US institutional holdings in Australian companies are associated with American Depositary Receipt listing and, incrementally, choice of accounting methods that conform to US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Although making accounting choices in compliance with US GAAP is significantly associated with higher levels of institutional ownership in a statistical sense, examination of the specific differences in accounting choices suggests that the differences in informational content are relatively minor.     

Can SRI funds better resist global financial crisis? Evidence from Japan

This paper compared Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) funds and conventional funds in the Japanese market with respect to the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008. Taking the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a particular event, we estimated the average cumulative abnormal returns of both funds by event study methodology using a Fama–French three-factor model and EGARCH model. Our results suggest that SRI funds better resisted the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers than conventional funds. We also found that this result can be attributed to the existence of international funds, possibly because investors might evaluate the CSR activities of international firms more than those of domestic firms. Alternatively, it can be interpreted that the universe of domestic SRI funds is too limited to enjoy risk diversification.     

Did the securitization market freeze affect bank lending during the financial crisis? Evidence from a credit register

Using data from the Italian Credit Register we identify the adverse effect of the freeze of the securitization market on bank lending during the crisis of 2007–2008. Applying a differences-in-differences estimation to data on firms that borrow from multiple banks, we single out credit supply by including firm fixed effects. Our results show that the degree to which banks tightened credit supply to nonfinancial firms is positively related to the share of loans they securitized before the crisis. The tightening translated into lower credit growth, higher interest rates, lower probability of accepting loan applications and higher probability of relationship termination. Firms were unable to fully compensate the negative credit supply shock, which suggests that the securitization freeze played a role in reducing aggregate credit availability.     

Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data

This paper investigates the validity of the law of one price (LOP) in international financial markets by examining the frequency, size and duration of inter-market price differentials for borrowing and lending services (‘one-way arbitrage’). Using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, we find that the LOP holds on average, but numerous economically significant violations of the LOP arise. The duration of these violations is high enough to make it worthwhile searching for one-way arbitrage opportunities in order to minimize borrowing costs and/or maximize earnings on given funds. We also document that such opportunities decline with the pace of the market and increase with market volatility.     

Have ‘European’ and US GAAP measures of income and equity converged under IFRS? Evidence from European companies listed in the US

The EU's adoption of IFRS, combined with the SEC's removal of the US GAAP reconciliation requirement for non‐US registrants reporting under IFRS, signifies a major shift towards the acceptance of global standards. Based on 20‐F reconciliations provided by the population of US listed European companies filing IFRS‐based statements with the SEC in 2005, we examine whether ‘European’ and US GAAP measures of income and equity converged under IFRS. We find that during the period immediately preceding IFRS, for our sample companies, European and US GAAP measures are generally comparable in respect of income and equity. However, as an exception to the latter, we find that UK GAAP yielded significantly lower measures of equity than US GAAP For companies adopting IFRS for the first time in 2005, we find a significant gap between IFRS and US GAAP measures of income, thereby, signifying de facto divergence from US GAAP in regard to income determination. Furthermore, we find that, following IFRS adoption, significant differences with US GAAP equity persisted for companies that previously reported using UK GAAP. Our findings, thus, support critics’ claims that standard‐setters, most notably the IASB and FASB, have more work to do to achieve a sufficient degree of convergence between IFRS and US GAAP that will convince the SEC to require US companies to use IFRS.     

Are there any cost and profit efficiency gains in financial conglomeration? Evidence from the accession countries

Diversified banks should benefit from an efficient allocation of resources, debt coinsurance and scope economies. At the same time, critics of diversification question these advantages pointing to agency problems such as managerial entrenchment and empire building that could also lead to diversification but for the ‘wrong’ reasons. This paper sheds further light on the issue of bank diversification by taking a direct look into how efficiently financial conglomerates operate and by measuring to what extent size and other bank- and market-specific factors matter in evaluating the relationship between diversification and efficiency. We focus on banks operating in the accession countries over the period 2001–2007 and estimate their cost and alternative profit efficiencies using a data envelopment analysis estimator. The results indicate that banks suffer from relatively high cost and profit inefficiencies and that there are noticeable differences in the efficiency levels across countries. Concerning banks’ degree of diversification, we find strong evidence to suggest that more diversified institutions are more likely to be cost- and profit-efficient and that size is a key factor in explaining best practice, particularly on the profit side.     

Does aggressiveness help? Evidence from IPO corruption and pricing in China

Using a unique database of Chinese firms bribing initial public offering (IPO) regulators, we examine the impact of bribing on IPO pricing. Our findings suggest that bribing firms are younger, smaller, more volatile in their operating activities, and more generous in compensating underwriters and management. Most important, bribing firms price their IPO shares more aggressively than non-bribing firms and exhibit a higher price-to-earnings ratio, lower first-day return, and poorer post-IPO stock performance. Additional analyses suggest that both bribing and non-bribing firms exhibit negative announcement returns after the arrest of corrupt officials. However, the effect is stronger for bribing firms. Overall, bribing firms are systematically more aggressive than their non-bribing counterparts. They concede less to IPO investors and reward underwriters and management for helping them access the capital market.     

Do institutions prevent contagion in financial markets? Evidence from the European debt crisis

ABSTRACT

The recent European Sovereign Debt Crisis brought in attention a number of structural problems in the European Union. Part of the effort to correct these problems in the countries that were mostly affected by the crisis were a number of policy responses from the European Union, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Local Governments. In this study, we attempt to assess the success of these responses to constrain the contagion of the crisis from the banking sector to the real economy sectors of the Eurozone countries. Our results show that policy announcements from the EU/ECB/IMF affect the transmission of shocks generated in the banking sector to the market. Moreover, policy responses of the national governments also seem to play a role in the contagion of the crisis.     

Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.     

Did PCAOB rules on ethics,independence, and tax services influence financial reporting for income taxes?

The PCAOB Rules on Ethics, Independence, and Tax Services prohibited accounting firms from providing aggressive tax-position transactions to their audit clients. We exploit this setting to examine whether the scrutiny of the PCAOB affects companies’ financial reporting for income tax accounts. We find robust evidence that the overall quality of the income tax accrual increased after companies significantly reduced auditor-provided tax service (APTS) fees in response to the regulation. We show that this improvement is a function of companies’ pre-regulation tax aggressiveness. In addition, we find evidence that after the fee reductions, tax-aggressive companies increased financial statement reserves for uncertain income tax positions without changing tax-aggressive decisions. Overall, our findings are consistent with an improvement in the financial reporting for income taxes under regulatory scrutiny which is more pronounced for companies that were tax aggressive in the pre-regulation period.     

Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices

We address the question whether the evolution of implied volatility can be forecasted by studying a number of European and US implied volatility indices. Both point and interval forecasts are formed by alternative model specifications. The statistical and economic significance of these forecasts is examined. The latter is assessed by trading strategies in the recently inaugurated CBOE volatility futures markets. Predictable patterns are detected from a statistical point of view. However, these are not economically significant since no abnormal profits can be attained. Hence, the hypothesis that the volatility futures markets are efficient cannot be rejected.