The links between securities settlement systems: An olihopoly theoretic approach

A duopoly model of the securities settlement industry is presented. Because pooling payments can help in using liquidity efficiently, issuers prefer systems where a large number of securities are issued. If the central securities depositories (CSDs) establish a mutual link that enables investors to make transactions with foreign securities, cost savings can be achieved. However, these links may have unexpected effects on CSDs' pricing, and the issuers' share of the fee burden can increase substantially. It is not advisable to ban additional fees for using the link, as the CSDs might simply increase the fee for domestic transactions.     

浅析中俄跨境人民币结算

人民币跨境人民币业务源于贸易结算,进而扩展到了投融资与金融交易等领域。因此推行跨境人民币结算的成本收益不应只考虑贸易结算,必须把投融资与金融交易包括在内。近年来对俄跨境人民币结算取得了一些成效,但仍然存在着结算渠道不完善、现钞回流方式单一、人民币输出力度不足和综合服务水平不高等问题,为此应该在增加中俄本币结算代理行数量基础上探索人民币清算行集中清算模式,实施推进中俄货币互换,扩大对俄人民币直接投资,在现有的政策框架内完善在俄人民币回流机制,提升跨境人民币结算的金融服务管理水平,跨境贸易人民币结算制度与原有外汇结算管理制度相衔接。     

Risk and concentration in payment and securities settlement systems

What drives the intraday patterns of settlement in payment and securities settlement systems? Using a model of the strategic interaction of participants in these systems to capture some stylized facts about the Federal Reserve's Fedwire funds and securities systems, this paper identifies three factors that influence a participant's decision on when to send transactions intraday: cost of intraday liquidity, extent of settlement risk, and system design. With these factors, the model can make predictions regarding the impact of policy on the concentration of transactions, amount of intraday overdrafts, central bank credit exposure, costs to system participants, and other risks.     

Transferability, finality, and debt settlement

Payment, fundamental to exchange in a decentralized economy, often takes the form of transfers of inside money, i.e., specialized forms of debt. Associated with each type of inside money is a set of rules that governs both the legitimacy of such transfers as means of extinguishing other debts, and the allocation of the ensuing risks.In this paper we develop a model of debt as inside money. In a simple mechanism design framework we show that transferable debt that can be used to settle other debt obligations with finality can be a welfare improving arrangement in the presence of limited enforcement powers. Transferable debt has two advantages over simple chains of credit: it allows for removal of less-than-perfectly reliable agents from the chain in a timely fashion, and it allows agents to direct payments to the proper party without direct communication with other members of the credit chain.     

CLS与我国商业银行外汇交易清算方式的变革

CLS是近年来在全球范围内兴起的一种外汇交易清算方式.由于CLS采用针对每个交易货币轧差清算进行实际支付的新方式,所以在一定程度上解决了现行清算方式本身所固有的清算风险问题.我国商业银行引入CLS清算交易方式具有很多优越性,包括:可以减轻来自竞争对手的压力,扩大业务范围,提高资金的使用效率,使头寸管理更加准确且简化,发展新的利润增长点,有利于整合系统资源,有利于中小银行平等参与外汇市场交易等.当然,CLS系统的架构和业务集中也会在流动性管理、技术变革、软硬件水平、技术恢复能力以及系统性风险等方面产生一些新的问题,对此也应引起重视.     

经济学中的"理性"思考

从古典经济学出发,全面分析现代经济学,从新古典经济学到博弈论,从行为金融学再到进化博弈理论、新制度经济理论等研究方法,通过分析现代经济学研究方法的演化发展,使我们可以清楚地认识到理性研究在经济学研究方法中从完全理性到弱化理性再到有限理性的不断发展变化。     

收入分配规则对效率的影响——基于行为经济学的分析

行为经济学的礼物交换博弈、信任博弈的试验实证结果及囚徒困境博弈的理论分析揭示了收入分配规则对人类行为进行规范的基础:建立公平正义的收入分配规则是人类本性的要求,否则的话会制约人类的合作倾向,使社会经济趋向非帕累托状态。现实经济中对"做大蛋糕"与"分好蛋糕"的不休争论,基于行为经济学,我们认为要"做大蛋糕",必须坚持先"分好蛋糕"的原则。     

跨境支付清算业务的历史演变与发展建议

＂十二五＂规划纲要明确指出,要进一步扩大人民币跨境使用,而完善我国跨境支付清算体系建设对于推进人民币跨境使用具有重要意义。文章根据清算方式的演变回顾了世界跨境支付清算业务的不同发展阶段,以及我国跨境支付清算业务的发展历程,针对工作中存在的问题,从增强与全球跨境支付清算体系的有机联系等方面提出改进和完善我国跨境支付清算工作的发展建议。     

寿险保单贴现业务的发展与思考

保单贴现是一种投资者以折扣价买进即将到期的人寿保单,到期获得保险公司给付的保险金,同时解决了绝症患者和老年病患高额医疗费的需要,以及老年人养老费用的需要,这是一种多赢的投资工具,在国外发达国家已经存在多年,并发展越来越快;随着我国金融市场的开放和人们保险意识的加强,发达国家保单贴现业务值得我国借鉴,尽快推出这一创新的保险业务,以满足部分保单持有人提前变现保单的需求。     

基于博弈论视角的金融债权人利益保护

不良金融债权在我国几乎成为金融改革成败的重要内容。本文运用博弈论方法,对金融债权保护中双方的关系进行了分析,揭示了单纯运用一种或某种方法进行保护已难以奏效,需要考虑系统的方法,进而提出相关政策建议。     

贸易与金融双视角下的跨境贸易人民币结算影响因素研究

基于国际贸易结算货币选择理论,运用2009~2012年的月度数据从贸易和金融双视角出发,采用协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等实证方法对跨境贸易人民币结算的影响因素进行研究。实证得出：其中四个因素对跨境贸易人民币结算职能产生冲击效应,其影响程度从大到小依次为:人均GDP增长率、我国与发达国家贸易占比、我国与东盟贸易额增长率、人民币实际有效汇率波动,且证实汇率波动冲击对跨境贸易人民币结算占比有动态的负向影响。     

多措并举推进我国跨境贸易人民币结算业务发展

开展跨境贸易人民币结算对于转变我国经济金融发展方式具有诸多积极的现实意义,当前我国跨境贸易人民币结算业务呈现良好发展势头,但仍存在一定的制约,文章从提高人民币跨境收支监测能力、完善跨境贸易结算配套操作管理办法等方面提出了积极推进跨境贸易人民币结算业务的措施建议。     

信用违约互换产品信用事件拍卖结算机制研究

当前国内的信用衍生品——信用风险缓释工具已试水起航,随着业务的发展和深入,信用事件发生后其结算流程与结算效率将成为市场参与者关注的焦点。文章结合案例对国际上信用事件拍卖结算机制的运作原理进行了系统介绍,指出该机制为低流动性下发现某交易标的的市场公允价值提供了一种解决思路,建议可考虑借鉴此类方法并充分结合国内业务发展现状,适时推出国内信用风险缓释工具的拍卖结算机制。     

Changes in volatility of credit spread and market efficiency during rapid growth of credit-related securities

This paper investigates the changes in credit spread volatility during 1993–2001. We find that the credit spreads between junk-grade corporate bonds and Treasury bonds were significantly more volatile in the second half of this period when credit-related securities became popular. In contrast, investment-grade bonds exhibited no significant change in volatility. The junk bonds variance ratios changed from being less than one to greater than one. Using the GJR-Garch model, the conditional volatilities of junk bonds increased in the second half of the period and the mean reversion speeds slowed, suggesting a longer time for mean reversion to occur. Our analysis rules out treasury volatility, credit spread level, equity market return, T-bill rate, curvature of the Treasury curve, financial crisis, quantity of defaults and standard deviation of defaults as explanations for the increase in junk bond volatility. In contrast, volatility of equity returns provides a partial explanation of junk bond spread volatility in the later period.     

Altruisim and the Economics of Non-Profit Organisations

Economists cannot completely explain the existence of nonprofit organisations without assuming that some individuals are altruistic and have a Kantian ethic. Once that is done, the economic model becomes more realistic, and some interesting implications for economics and management can be derived.     

中美贸易政策互动演变的博弈分析

在相互依存的世界经济中，博弈论的应用已变得日益普遍，仔细观察一下当前国际贸易中的种种摩擦和纠纷，随处可见到博弈论的影子，本文写作的主要目的就是想从博弈论的角度，探讨中美建交20年来中美双边在贸易政策，贸易战略，贸易措施，贸易立法等方面的互动演变，阐明合作伙伴之间的潜在竞争是当今中美贸易关系的一个重要特征，中美经贸关系将在竞争中合作，在摩擦中前进，合作将是中美关系的主流。     

解析新货币经济学

20世纪80年代以后,新货币经济学的观点逐渐被人们所重视。新货币经济学主张将传统的统一于一种货币中的记账职能和交易职能相分离,来解决传统的“二分法”问题,并提出了“精密的物物交换体系”为基础的经济分析方法。同时认为如果取消法律限制,传统的货币将消失。新货币经济学对货币本质的认识和电子货币的发展提供了新的理论思路。     

An essay on conceptualization of issues in empirical accounting research

Empirical research in accounting has lately focused much on sophisticated statistical methodology and econometrics and relatively less on conceptualization of the issues concerned. This essay is written to highlight the conceptualization of the issues as an important ingredient of empirical research in accounting. I present two methods of conceptualization – the single-entity approach and the game theoretic approach. I give several examples in accounting research to explain the conceptualization process. I hope that this essay will fill a much needed void in the research process in accounting and restore the balance between conceptualization and methodology.     

A simulation analysis of the microstructure of an order driven financial market with multiple securities and portfolio choices

In this paper we propose an artificial market where multiple risky assets are exchanged. Agents are constrained by the availability of resources and trade to adjust their portfolio according to an exogenously given target portfolio. We model the trading mechanism as a continuous auction order-driven market. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of desired target portfolio allocations, but they are homogeneous in terms of trading strategies. We investigate the role played by the trading mechanism in affecting the dynamics of prices, trading volume and volatility. We show that the institutional setting of a double auction market is sufficient to generate a non-normal distribution of price changes and temporal patterns that resemble those observed in real markets. Moreover, we highlight the role played by the interaction between individual wealth constraints and the market frictions associated with a double auction system to determine the negative asymmetry of the stock returns distribution.     

假冒伪劣治理的经济博弈分析

对假冒伪劣的治理是我国经济体制转轨中一个令人关切的问题.假冒伪劣商品严重威胁着消费者的健康和生命安全,已成为社会经济肌体上的毒瘤.本文通过构造博弈模型,分析了其存在根源,进而得出从多方面综合整治的对策.