China as the Workshop of the World: Measuring the Role of Foreign Direct Investment Through Manufacturing Sectors and Products

In this paper, we focus on the role of China's manufacturing in the international division of labor from the perspective of foreign direct investment (FDI). We first discuss the contribution made by China's manufacturing sector to capital accumulation, manifested internally by domestic oversaving and externally by China's trade surplus. China's output under various conditions is then measured, and the role of FDI in different manufacturing industries, differentiated according to technological type, is examined. Deconstructing the trade balance and highlighting the role of processing, the analysis provides details on the role of FDI in China's merchandise trade. The analysis also shows that China's distorted research and development expenditure in various manufacturing industries is related to lack of innovation capacity in the high-technology industries dominated by FDI.     

数字产业与制造业协同集聚对企业绿色创新的影响研究

基于马歇尔集聚经济理论,依据中国工业企业数据和城市面板数据,运用固定效应模型,考量数字产业与制造业协同集聚对企业绿色创新的影响。结果显示,数字产业与制造业协同集聚通过人力资本外部性、知识溢出效应机制促进企业绿色创新,但规模经济效应机制不成立,且该结果在更换核心变量指标、考虑极端值、替换固定效应及内生性问题后依然稳健。鉴于此,应因地施策,加快推动区域内数字产业与制造业协同集聚,提升软环境建设水平,促进企业绿色化发展。     

资源禀赋差异下中国工业企业的环境创新效率研究

基于企业资源禀赋差异,在行业视角下利用共同前沿DEA方法对中国35个工业行业2008-2014年的环境创新效率进行测算和分析.结果表明:中国工业企业平均环境创新效率波动上升但仍然偏低;环境创新效率存在行业异质性,技术依赖型行业的环境创新效率最高,但能源依赖型行业的环境创新效率整体提升幅度最大;各行业效率损失原因各有侧重,需明确效率损失原因,采取针对性措施提高效率.     

Human Capital Allocation and Enterprise Innovation Performance: An Example of China's Knowledge-Intensive Service Industry

This paper examines the impact of human capital mismatch on the innovation performance of knowledge-intensive service enterprises. Taking China's knowledge-intensive service industries (KISI) as our research object, we construct a human capital allocation measurement framework to evaluate the current state of human capital allocation of sub-industries in China using the 2007 and 2013 Chinese Household Income Project data and Chinese A-share listed company data. Results show that human capital mismatch do exist in China's knowledge-intensive service industries, which exerts inhibitory effect on the innovation performance of KISI enterprises. We further find that such an effect varies with regions and industries. Our study aims to provide useful reference for relevant departments in stimulating innovation and accelerating market reform.     

The crowding out effect of booming real estate markets on corporate TFP: evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of housing price appreciation on corporate total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese A‐share listed corporations. Results show that increasing real estate prices negatively affect corporate TFP. Meanwhile, we find that the deterring effect is especially significant for state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), large corporations and manufacturing corporations. This research further provides suggestive evidence that managerial myopia may be one potential explanation for the crowding out effect of increasing housing prices. When home purchase is under restriction, however, the negative impact of rising housing prices on corporate TFP declines sharply. This study illustrates the efficiency cost of China's booming real estate market.     

基于区域、双边与部门层面的国际生产共享问题研究-以中国参与CAFTA制造业垂直专业化分工为例

基于区域、双边与部门层面,以中国参与CAFTA制造业垂直专业化分工为例,考量生产共享程度、结构与动态变化.结果发现:中国与东盟制造业生产共享水平尚处低位,但呈快速增长态势;技术密集型产业生产共享水平显著较高且前景较好;中国在CAFTA制造业生产共享体系中的获益水平增长较快,但剔除了贸易规模扩张效应的获益效率呈现下滑趋势.     

美国量化宽松货币政策对中国溢出效应研究——基于贸易渠道分析

基于2008年10月~2014年3月的30个工业行业出口面板数据,运用FGLS方法,根据不同工业行业要素密集度考量美国量化宽松货币政策对我国工业出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策通过人民币汇率对我国资本密集型、劳动密集型和技术密集型行业的出口呈现出显著负面影响,通过国际大宗商品价格指数对我国劳动密集型和技术密集型行业出口产生显著负面影响,美国实际工业产出对我国三类工业行业出口呈现出显著正面影响。     

中美贸易对美国就业影响的重新评价 ——基于全球价值链视角

基于全球价值链视角,利用出口增加值分解,运用WIOD数据库2000-2014年间投入产出数据和SEA就业数据,重新度量中美贸易对美国就业的带动和挤出效应。结果表明：美国直接出口中国所带动的本土制造业就业人数要高于服务业人数;就业挤出中,中国出口美国主要挤出的是美国知识密集型制造业,其他类型的行业就业挤出相对较少;中美贸易对美国就业的整体效应为正值,中美贸易对美国制造业和总就业具有一定的促进作用。     

房价、金融发展与制造业产业结构升级——基于动态面板的经验分析

基于2007-2016年中国房价和制造业相关省级数据,运用两步System-GMM方法考量房价、金融发展变化对制造业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明：制造业产业结构高度化除了受自身冲击因素（制造业产业结构高度化的滞后期）的影响之外,在当前样本范围内,房价与制造业产业结构高度化、金融发展与制造业产业结构高度化存在显著的正相关关系,房价上涨与金融发展能推动制造业产业结构高度化,但二者的相互作用抑制制造业结构的高度化。     

《对外劳务合作管理条例》对中国劳务输出的促进效应分析——基于双重差分模型

依据2008-2017年178个中国劳务输出目的国数据，运用双重差分模型，考量《对外劳务合作管理条例》对中国劳务输出的促进效应。结果表明：《对外劳务合作管理条例》的实施促进了中国对外劳务输出的发展。其中，对劳务合作项下劳务输出的促进作用大于对承包工程项下劳务输出的作用，对向发展中国家劳务输出的促进效应大于向发达国家劳务输出的促进效应。鉴此，宜进一步完善《对外劳务合作管理条例》，确保《条例》执行到位，加大司法救济力度。     

金融支持促进高技术产业技术创新成效的区域性差异研究

基于随机效应面板泊松回归模型,考量不同类型的金融支持措施对我国东、中、西区域高技术产业技术创新活动的影响。结果表明：政府的资金支持促进了东、中、西各区域高技术产业的技术创新,资本市场的金融支持只对东、中部区域的高技术产业的技术创新有促进作用,金融机构的金融支持只对西部区域的高技术产业技术创新有促进作用,金融支持对高技术产业技术创新的作用存在显著的区域性差异。通过加大政府支持的力度和体现区域差异、建设西部地区资本市场发展的共享机制、提升金融机构风险管理技术水平等措施可以提升金融支持促进高技术产业技术创新的效果。     

权益资本成本的行业特征研究

以2004~2011年沪深A股上市公司为样本,研究权益资本成本的行业差异以及行业特征对权益资本成本的影响。研究发现:行业门类层面和制造业次类层面的权益资本成本差异显著,这种差异在时序上较为稳定。行业竞争程度越低,权益资本成本越小,体现了产品市场竞争的特质性风险效应,行业收益波动和行业成长性分别对权益资本成本产生显著的正向影响和负向影响。企业会计准则的改革强化了行业因素对权益资本成本的影响。     

Is U.S. economic policy uncertainty priced in China's A-shares market? Evidence from market,industry, and individual stocks

This paper is motivated by Bali, Brown, and Tang (2017) who find U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns, and uses weekly data from March 2006 to April 2016 to study whether shocks in U.S. EPU also influence prices of China's A-shares from a market, industry, and individual stock perspective. Our methodology relies on an ARMA (1,1) model to extract shocks in the U.S. EPU series and a GARCH (1,1) model to examine how returns of China's A-shares respond to these shocks after controlling for business conditions proxied by term and credit spread in China. Generally, we find that shocks in U.S. EPU significantly and negatively explain returns of Chinese A-shares with a lag of one week. In addition, the market index containing small and growth stocks is more sensitive to shocks in U.S. EPU than the index containing big and value stocks. Furthermore, we find that firms in manufacturing, information technology, and media industries in China are more sensitive to shocks in U.S. EPU, while firms in agriculture and real estate industries respond less to shocks in U.S. EPU. Finally, China's A-shares which decline more in response to shocks in U.S. EPU have higher returns, smaller market capitalization, weaker operating profitability, higher asset growth, and better past year's cumulative returns. Overall, our findings show that investors in the Chinese A-shares market require a premium to hold stocks that are sensitive to shocks in U.S. economic policy uncertainty.     

Research on the impact of OFDI on the home country's global value chain upgrading

Based on the trade value-added accounting method proposed by Koopman et al., the "GVC Position Indices" and "GVC Participation Degree" of 64 countries from 2005 to 2015 are calculated in our paper by using the OECD-TIVA data. Then the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the home country's GVC upgrading is theoretically analyzed and empirically tested on this basis. Empirical results at country-specific level show that OFDI exerts a positive effect on the home country's GVC upgrading via boosting technological advancement and raising trading network status, and the impact of OFDI in emerging countries is more significant than that in developed countries; meanwhile, the empirical test using China's sub-industry data indicates that compared with low and middle-tech (LMT) industries, OFDI of high-tech (HT) industries have a stronger impact on China's GVC upgrading. Finally, we put forward suggestions on how to avoid the "low-end lock-in" risk and promote the home country's GVC upgrading through OFDI for developing countries like China.     

信托业发展与经济增长——基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析

基于金融发展理论分析信托业发展的经济效应传导机制,在数据可收集的前提下,采用2004-2018年我国各省市信托公司的面板数据,运用静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据的系统GM M估计方法对信托业发展和经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果显著证明了信托业发展能促进经济增长,反映信托业发展的重要指标——新增集合信托规模、数量以及实收信托规模的增加能显著提高人均GDP增长率和GDP增长率.因此需大力发展我国信托业,回归"受人之托,代人理财"的信托本源,提高信托业发展质量,推动经济增长.     

智能制造赋能企业创新了吗？——基于中国智能制造试点项目的准自然试验

智能制造已成为各国制造业发展的重要方向以及发展先进制造业的制高点。本文以中国智能制造示范项目的推广为准自然事件,研究智能制造对企业创新行为的影响效应及其机制。结果发现:智能制造的推广显著提高了企业创新水平,表明智能制造可以赋能企业创新,为企业高质量发展提供新动力。机制分析发现,智能制造主要通过信息渠道、人力资本渠道以及资金渠道三条路径提高企业创新水平。对企业创新结构解析发现,智能制造可以优化企业创新结构,提高企业创新质量。异质性因素分析发现,当企业规模较大、产权性质为非国有企业、劳动力较密集、所属行业竞争程度较高以及位于知识产权保护程度较高地区时,智能制造对企业创新的促进效应更显著。价值效应分析发现,智能制造赋能企业创新最终可带来企业当期以及未来业绩的提升,具有长期价值提升功能。本文为解读智能制造如何影响企业行为提供了理论依据,对企业实施智能制造并实现转型升级具有一定启示。     

经济治理能力、出口贸易与中国高新技术产业自主创新

在国家治理能力现代化和“双循环”相互促进背景下，探究经济治理能力和出口贸易对我国高新技术产业自主创新的影响。结果表明：经济治理能力和出口贸易对高新技术产业自主创新能力有显著正向影响；要素市场发育程度、非国有经济发展、法律制度质量、研发资本投入对内资企业自主创新有正向影响；产品市场发育程度、研发劳动投入显著提升了外资企业创新能力。在以国内大循环为主体的背景下，应提升经济治理能力以激发国内市场主体的创新活力。     

China's Imported Inflation and Global Commodity Prices

In this paper, we outline China's imported inflation via global commodity prices. We show that the prices of China's imported commodities are strongly related to global commodity prices. Meanwhile, the final goods prices from upstream industries are strongly influenced by global commodity prices. However, this effect is partially offset by the production process—that is, the final goods prices in downstream industries are generally less affected by global prices. This indicates that China's commodity market has a close link with global commodity markets. Therefore, high global commodity prices generally squeeze profits in China's downstream industries; upstream industries generally benefit from high global commodity prices.     

互联网金融对中国商业银行系统性风险的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

首先运用主成分分析法测算我国商业银行的系统性风险,接着运用突变分析和 SVAR 模型等计量方法实证互联网金融对我国商业银行系统性风险的影响。结果表明：互联网金融发展影响商业银行系统性风险的路径为：“互联网金融—商业银行的资产负债结构—商业银行的成本收入比—商业银行的系统性风险”,且它对银行系统性风险的影响存在“期限结构效应”,即互联网金融在短期内会增加我国银行系统性风险,但从中长期来看,对我国银行系统性风险的影响并不大,两者可作为互利共生的事物共同发展。互联网金融的存在对我国金融改革有很好的倒逼作用,能在一定程度上促进金融监管的创新。     

工业机器人应用促进了“两业融合”发展吗?——来自中国制造企业投入服务化的证据

本文利用微观企业数据和区分中国贸易方式的投入产出表,测算了高度细化的企业投入服务化指标,进而考察了工业机器人应用对制造业和服务业“两业融合”的影响。结果表明,工业机器人应用显著促进了中国制造企业的服务增加值率,然而这一促进效应更多是通过推动企业使用国外服务、抑制企业使用国内服务实现的。异质性分析显示,工业机器人应用对“两业融合”的影响主要集中在加工贸易企业、东部地区企业、外资和港澳台企业、劳动密集型和技术密集型企业。从作用机制看,工业机器人应用对“两业融合”的影响主要通过促进技术创新、延长生产链条和提高生产效率来实现,而人力资本投资则存在一定的负向替代作用。最后,本文还讨论了工业机器人应用影响“两业融合”中的“要素替代效应”和“行业扩散效应”。本文结论表明,工业机器人应用对“两业融合”的影响并非是“局部性”的,有必要统筹协调相关政策和制度,更好地促进现代产业体系的加快构建和中国经济的高质量发展。