Baltic stock markets and the financial crisis of 2008–2009

This study presents new evidence on stock market integration by investigating the linkages between developed European stock markets and emerging stock markets. We focus on three countries in the Baltic region, namely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with particular attention to the recent financial crisis of 2008–2009. The study is motivated by traditional stock market studies of integration, which show that developed stock markets are highly integrated, while emerging markets may be segmented. How integrated these emerging stock markets are in a crisis period with respect to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index is an empirical question investigated in this study. While the results of this study demonstrate that the Baltic stock markets were apparently segmented before the crisis, they were highly integrated during the crisis. The results of the variance decomposition analysis show that a large proportion of the forecast variance of the Baltic stock markets can be explained by the EUROSTOXX50 during the crisis. The results from the quantile regressions demonstrate that during the crisis the returns of the lowest quantile were most sensitive to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index. All these results imply less diversification benefits during crises when investors would need them the most.     

Baltic stock markets and the financial crisis of 2008–2009

This study presents new evidence on stock market integration by investigating the linkages between developed European stock markets and emerging stock markets. We focus on three countries in the Baltic region, namely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with particular attention to the recent financial crisis of 2008–2009. The study is motivated by traditional stock market studies of integration, which show that developed stock markets are highly integrated, while emerging markets may be segmented. How integrated these emerging stock markets are in a crisis period with respect to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index is an empirical question investigated in this study. While the results of this study demonstrate that the Baltic stock markets were apparently segmented before the crisis, they were highly integrated during the crisis. The results of the variance decomposition analysis show that a large proportion of the forecast variance of the Baltic stock markets can be explained by the EUROSTOXX50 during the crisis. The results from the quantile regressions demonstrate that during the crisis the returns of the lowest quantile were most sensitive to the EUROSTOXX50 stock index. All these results imply less diversification benefits during crises when investors would need them the most.     

Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets

This paper examines the impact of global financial market uncertainty and domestic macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets. In particular, by applying the wavelet analysis approach, we are able to examine stock–bond correlations over different time horizons in ten emerging markets. We find that stock–bond correlation patterns vary significantly between the time horizons. In particular, the correlation in short horizon changes the sign rapidly showing sustainable negative episodes while the correlation in long horizon stays positive most of the time. The most important factor influencing stock–bond correlation in short horizon is the monetary policy stance, while the factors with the greatest long-term impact are inflation and stock market uncertainty. Finally, global stock market uncertainty plays a more significant role than global bond market uncertainty in explaining stock–bond correlations in emerging markets.     

Explaining the intra-day variation in the bid–ask spread in competitive dealership markets – A research note

There are many possible explanations for variation in the inside bid–ask spread during the trading day, including informed trading, price inelastic market demand, price discovery, statistical artefact and market concentration. Each of these explanations is examined for consistency with respect to both the inside and average bid–ask spread, observed both inside and outside the mandatory quote period in the London Stock Exchange.     

How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets

We employ a theoretical model to interpret the liquidity and moral hazard effects of IMF support during a financial crisis. We then estimate the response of forward exchange markets to IMF-related announcements, using data on the 3-, 9-, and 12-month forward exchange rates. Our results indicate that the announcement of IMF negotiations is associated with a premium on the baht and the rupiah, where the premium is much larger on the latter. This result is largely consistent with the responses of stock and bond markets, especially when country-specific data are employed.     

Accounting research in banking–A review

<正>1.Why carry out accounting research in the banking industry?1.1.Why focus on the banking industry?The banking industry is critically important to national an...     

How loss averse are investors in financial markets?

We investigate loss aversion in financial markets using a typical asset allocation problem. Our theoretical and empirical results show that investors in financial markets are more loss averse than assumed in the literature. Moreover, loss aversion changes depending on market conditions; investors become far more loss averse during bull markets than during bear markets, indicating their more profound disutility for losses when others enjoy gains. Contrary to most previous results, we find that investors are more sensitive to changes in losses than changes in gains.     

Assessing financial market integration in Asia – Equity markets

Financial integration has strong implications for financial stability. On the one hand, financial integration among economies helps to improve their capacity to absorb shocks and foster development. On the other hand, intensified financial linkages in a world of increasing capital mobility may also harbour the risk of cross-border financial contagion. This paper provides a survey of high-frequency indicators to monitor the development of equity market integration in Asia. The results show that after slowing down between 2002 and 2006, the equity market integration process picked up again in 2007–08. Nevertheless, the process is not complete and the degrees of integration between mature and emerging equity markets are different. The divergence may be attributed to the difference in the political, economic and institutional aspects across jurisdictions in Asia.     

Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of ‘random’ price changes

Using trades and quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delilcated interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean revrting limit orders that lead to sub-diffusion (or anti-persistence). We define and study a model where the price, at any instant, is the result of the impact of all past trades, mediated by a non-constant ‘propagator’ in time that describes the response of the market to a single trade. Within this model, the market is shown to be, in a precise sense, at a critical point, where the price is purely diffusive and the average response function almost constant. We find empirically, and discuss theoretically, a fluctuation-response relation. We also discuss the fraction of truly informed market orders, that correctly anticipate short-term moves, and find that it is quite small.     

Entry and capital structure mimicking in concentrated markets: The role of incumbents’ financial disclosures

We examine whether the public availability of product market incumbents' financial disclosures leads to greater capital structure mimicking of incumbents by entrants. Exploiting a change in disclosure enforcement for German private firms in the mid-2000s, we find entrant-incumbent mimicking rises substantially in concentrated markets once incumbents' financial statements are publicly available. Additional tests exploring potential mechanisms are more consistent with interfirm learning underlying the effect than alternative channels. Our findings shed light on the effects of competitor financial statement disclosure on private firms’ initial financing decisions and highlight how capital structure dependencies among peer firms arise.     

Lessons from the financial crisis: failure of markets or failure of regulation?

The popular, demagogic narrative after the global financial system's collapse in 2008 has held that the financial crisis signalled the failure of capitalism. However, regulators across the world must realize that the financial crisis was not brought about by the failure of markets but by the failure of governments to appropriately regulate markets. Beginning in the 1980s, and continuing over the quarter-century that followed, regulators afforded the world of big finance an unaffordable luxury: insurance against possible failure. As a result, banks and financial institutions became adept at turning their insulation from disorderly failure, as enforced by free markets, into insulation from market discipline, as inflicted by myopic regulators. This ‘too big to fail’ syndrome combined with the incorrect belief perpetrated by the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that financial companies, powered by a rational motive not to lose money, could police themselves and one another. In turn, such sanguine beliefs led to considerable over-supply of financial innovation. The supply created its own demand as the financial world operated under the implicit guarantee (and market distortion) created by the ‘too big to fail’ syndrome.

The errors laid bare by the financial crisis clearly call for regulatory reform. But in designing that reform, regulators across the world should avoid the temptation to seek heavy-handed new approaches. Instead, policymakers should look to the long-term success of the system of rules whose decay brought about the crisis. Prudent regulations must seek to reinforce the fundamental principle that no one, however big or small, can be made immune to failure. Such pro-market regulation of finance is essential to preserving and fostering countries’ economic futures.     

Stock market correlations during the financial crisis of 2008–2009: Evidence from 50 equity markets

Using data from 50 equity markets we examine conditional and unconditional correlations around two major banking events during the financial crisis of 2008–09. To measure the value of covariance information on the augmented DCC model used in the study, a portfolio in-sample estimation is performed. We show that by taking into account the change in the level of variance in high volatility periods, the estimates of the conditional covariance are more efficient in capturing the dynamics of the stock markets variance. Furthermore, in a two-asset allocation framework, the model consistently generates relatively low portfolio variances, implying substantial benefits in portfolio diversification.     

Regulatory technologies,risky subjects,and financial boundaries: Governing ‘fraud’ in the financial markets

Among the myriad changes to have impacted the regulation of financial markets in recent years, one of the most significant yet least recognized is the growing role of technology in the regulatory process where it is used to detect emerging problems in the marketplace and guide the enforcement process. Current applications range from surveillance technologies, to datamining and risk profiling tools, to data visualization and graphing programs. Using the term ‘regulatory technologies’, this paper examines in detail two such technologies and assesses not only their benefits and limitations, but also their more subtle role in shaping the very criteria through which financial transactions and market actors are represented, framed, and assessed for their regulatory merit. To the extent that this process hinges on the ability to make distinctions on the grounds of risk, typicality, and appropriateness, these technologies play a critical role in shaping the boundaries of enforcement and thus the scope and depth of the regulatory vision. This is revealed to have significant implications for our understanding of the place of technology in regulation and for the types of questions that must be addressed in discussions of financial governance.     

Challenges and opportunities in disclosure research—A discussion of ‘the financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature’

Beyer et al. (2010) review the financial reporting literature related to voluntary and mandatory firm disclosures, and sell-side analyst reports. The discussion summarizes their approach, highlights some of their main conclusions, and presents alternative ideas about promising avenues for future research.     

The anatomy of buyer–seller dynamics in decentralized markets

In this paper I investigate the nexus between buyer–seller dynamics, financial frictions and market efficiency in decentralized markets. To do so, I introduce financial frictions in a dynamic market with heterogeneous traders. Heterogeneously constrained buyers sequentially enter the market to acquire units of a generic good from heterogeneously endowed sellers. I characterize two closely related classes of equilibria, respectively called homogeneous equilibrium with no entry (HEWNE) and homogeneous equilibrium with entry (HEWE). Both equilibria prescribe a market where only the efficiently endowed type of seller exists in the limit. However, the two equilibria diverge in the specification of agents’ behavior subsequent to trade. In HEWNE, sellers and buyers exit the market upon successful trading. In HEWE, like in supply chains, in every period certain types of buyers replace exiting sellers, thus becoming potential sellers for subsequent waves of buyers. First, I identify the critical role of frictions in steering the complex evolution of market heterogeneity for both classes of equilibria. Secondly, I operationalize the combined study of HEWNE and HEWE to obtain sharp predictions on market efficiency for a range of empirically-relevant situations in which buyer–seller dynamics are decoupled, for example when entry of new sellers is delayed or stopped. Third, I test the theoretical findings against a simulated artificial market.     

Competition between financial markets in Europe: what can be expected from MiFID?

The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) could be the foundation of new trading platforms in Europe. This contribution employs insights from the theoretical and empirical literature to highlight some of the possible implications of MiFID. In particular, we argue that more competition will lead to more liquid markets, reflected in lower bid–ask spreads and greater depth. It will also lead to innovation in incumbent markets and stimulate the design of new trading platforms. MiFID has already introduced more competition, as evidenced by the startup of Instinet Chi-X, the announcement of new initiatives, including Project Turquoise and BATS, and the reactions of incumbent exchanges.

One-and-a-half decades of global research output in Finance: 1990–2004

We provide a ranking of world finance research output by countries and institutions. Based upon 21 finance journals, the top five most productive countries are in the following order: U.S., U.K., Canada, Hong Kong, and Australia. We find that higher per capita GNP, English-speaking countries, and a capital market that offers her investors more protections are associated with higher level of finance literature production. New York University, the University of Pennsylvania, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and UCLA take the top five spots among the 1,126 academic institutions with most JF-pages appeared in 21 finance journals during the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004. The share of U.S. in the top-100 institutions is overwhelming; 78 out of the top-100 institutions come from U.S. We also show some factors that help to explain the cross-institutional variations among a sub-sample of the institutions. Specifically, faculty size, catalyst effect, and per capita budget are positively associated with research output.

Unchecked manipulations,price–volume relationship and market efficiency: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates how unchecked manipulations could cause frequent trade-induced manipulations and weak-form market inefficiency in South Asian stock markets [Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)]. Specifically, the paper analyses the price–volume relationship as one of the many cases of market inefficiency. By employing various econometric tests, this paper first provides conclusive evidence of market inefficiency in these markets. It then extracts evidence of manipulation periods from legal cases and analyses price–volume relationship during these periods. The paper finds that there exists market-wide trading-induced manipulations, where excessive buying and selling causes prices to inflate artificially before crashing down. The paper concludes that South-Asian markets are inefficient in the weak-form.     

Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence?

This paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the United States covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011. Using intra-daily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model as our baseline econometric specification. Motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample, we detect time-variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers. Particularly during the financial crisis of 2007, we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities. Investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities, however, we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers. Taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account, we find no evidence of contagion anymore.