比特币的货币属性分析

比特币作为一种新型电子货币,自产生以来受到了世界范围内的广泛关注。文章基于文献研究和对比分析,将比特币与传统货币进行对比,从货币本质、货币职能、货币发行机制等方面对比特币的货币属性进行分析。分析结果认为：比特币极其接近货币的本质,同时基本具备货币的五大职能,但是由于它在发行机制方面固有的特点（总量固定、产生速度由算法确定）,很难替代纸币成为未来的货币。同时,文章给出了比特币对传统货币和其他电子货币的启示和借鉴。     

Time-frequency co-movement of cryptocurrency return and volatility: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis

This article examines the co-movement relationship among representative cryptocurrencies from the perspectives of returns and volatility. Wavelet coherence and the correlation network are introduced to explore the interdependence of cryptocurrencies, and then risk reduction and downside risk reduction are used to test the hedging effects of Bitcoin on others at different time frequencies. The empirical results provide evidence of co-movement and hedging effects. Additionally, positive correlations between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies exist on short-to-medium investment horizons. Moreover, both Bitcoin's returns and its volatility are ahead of other cryptocurrencies at low frequencies. In addition, a hedging effect across Bitcoin against other cryptocurrencies is more obvious in the long run. Furthermore, Bitcoin has hedging effects on other cryptocurrencies according to time-frequency horizons.     

A tale of two tails among carbon prices,green and non-green cryptocurrencies

This paper studies the tail dependence among carbon prices, green and non-green cryptocurrencies. Using daily closing prices of carbon, green and non-green cryptocurrencies from 2017 to 2021 and a quantile connectedness framework, we find evidence of asymmetric tail dependence among these markets, with stronger dependence during highly volatile periods. Moreover, carbon prices are largely disconnected from cryptocurrencies during periods of low volatilities, while Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibit time-varying spillovers to other markets. Our results also show that green cryptocurrencies are weakly connected to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and their net connectedness are close to 0, except during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we find a significant influence of macroeconomic and financial factors on the tail dependence among carbon, green and non-green cryptocurrency markets. Our results highlight the time-varying diversification benefits across carbon, green and non-green cryptocurrencies and have important implications for investors and policymakers.     

News sentiment in the cryptocurrency market: An empirical comparison with Forex

We use high frequency intra-day data to investigate the influence of unscheduled currency and Bitcoin news on the returns, volume and volatility of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and traditional currencies over the period from January 2012 to November 2018. Results show that Bitcoin behaves differently to traditional currencies. Traditional currencies typically experience a decrease in returns after negative news arrivals and an increase in returns following positive news whereas Bitcoin reacts positively to both positive and negative news. This suggests investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin irrespective of the sentiment of the news. This phenomenon is exacerbated during bubble periods. Conversely, cryptocurrency cyber-attack news and fraud news dampen this effect, decreasing Bitcoin returns and volatility. Our results contribute to the discussion on the nature of Bitcoin as a currency or an asset. They further inform practitioners about the characteristics of cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and inform regulators about the influence of news on Bitcoin volatility, particularly during bubble periods.     

Money,Bitcoin, and Monetary Policy

A search-theoretic model is constructed, where money and Bitcoin can be used as mediums of exchange. We investigate how each currency facilitates transactions and how they compete with each other. Quantitative analysis shows that welfare in an economy with both money and Bitcoin is lower than in a money-only economy due to congestions in the confirmation of Bitcoin transactions and that the welfare gap between the two economies expands as inflation rises. Moreover, an increase in transaction fees for Bitcoin can increase welfare by reducing inefficient Bitcoin transactions.     

Information transmission among energy markets,cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins under pandemic conditions

This paper investigates the directional causal relationship and information transmission among the returns of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, major cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins by drawing on daily data from July 2019 to July 2020. Applying effective transfer entropy, a non-parametric statistic, the results show that the direction of the causal relationship and the nature of information spillovers changed after the COVID-19 pandemic. More precisely, our findings reveal that WTI and Brent are leading the prices of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Conversely, Bitcoin futures and stablecoins (TrueUSD and USD Coin) are leading WTI and Brent prices. In addition, the stablecoin Tether became a leader against Brent prices after the pandemic, although it is still following WTI prices. Moreover, Ethereum and USD coin preserved their position as leaders against Brent prices. Interestingly, our results also reveal that Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple preserved their position as leaders of WTI prices. The change in the nature of directional causality and the spillover effect after the COVID-19 crisis provide valuable information for practitioners, investors, and policymakers on how the ongoing pandemic influences the connection and network correlation among the energy, cryptocurrency, and stablecoin markets.     

Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?

This paper investigates the portfolio diversification potential of a pool of cryptocurrencies classified based on their degree of leadership. We employ the mean-variance and the higher-order moments optimization approaches to evaluate the diversification potential of centralized and decentralized cryptocurrencies across multiple frameworks. While theoretical implications of the mean-variance and the higher-order moments optimization approaches are similar, our results suggest that the latter provides a more precise portfolio allocation strategy because it considers investor risk-aversion for each moment. Furthermore, we find that extending the pool of cryptocurrencies achieves marginal diversification benefits due to considerable co-movements among the cryptocurrencies. Moreover, we find that decentralized cryptocurrencies offer greater diversification potential than centralized cryptocurrencies, although centralized cryptocurrencies carry some diversification potential during alt-seasons. In order of their weights, Bitcoin, Chainlink, and Ethereum (all decentralized) offer the highest contribution to portfolio diversification across most portfolio frameworks, while Ethereum offers greater diversification benefits during the alt-seasons.     

Countering money laundering and terrorist financing: A case for bitcoin regulation

Bitcoin was created in 2008 to serve as an alternative payment mechanism for both the under-banked and un-banked, or those in regions where the formal financial system suffers from broad corruption and efficient regulation. However, criminals and terrorists quickly exploited Bitcoin's unique properties, namely its peer-to-peer nature and pseudo-anonymity, to facilitate extensive terrorist financing and money laundering schemes. Government reactions to safeguard national security interests have been extremely varied, ranging from outright bans to passive tolerance. This inconsistency stems from how to effectively classify Bitcoin. On one side are those who argue Bitcoin is a currency, and on the other are those who claim it is a type of asset. In the US alone, these discrepancies have led to a bureaucratic turf war between different regulatory bodies, namely the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, the Commodity Futures Trading Association, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Internal Revenue Service. This study seeks to move beyond the existing legal frameworks, arguing that Bitcoin should be classified as a technology and regulation should rest with private sector technology companies.     

“Shiny” crypto assets: A systemic look at gold-backed cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper, we empirically analyse the performance of five gold-backed stablecoins during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare them to gold, Bitcoin and Tether. In the digital assets' ecosystem, gold-backed cryptocurrencies have the potential to address regulatory and policy concerns by decreasing volatility of cryptocurrency prices and facilitating broader cryptocurrency adoption. We find that during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold-backed cryptocurrencies were susceptible to volatility transmitted from gold markets. Our results indicate that for the selected gold-backed cryptocurrencies, their volatility, and as a consequence, risks associated with volatility, remained comparable to the Bitcoin. In addition, gold-backed cryptocurrencies did not show safe-haven potential comparable to their underlying precious metal, gold.     

Limitations of imitation: Lessons from another Bitcoin copycat

We find strong evidence that imitation to the leader in an uncertain environment provides short-term early success without enhancing long-term survival. Using a unique setting in cryptocurrencies where Bitcoin has been the centre focus, we define copycats as cryptocurrencies that have a name similar to Bitcoin. Our results show copycats earn higher returns in the first day and first week of trading but have a lower survival rate comparing to non-copycats and are robust to alternative definitions of copycat and an instrumental variable. Our results highlight that in an uncertain market created by a novel technology, the name of an organization may be a strong signal to investors when other signals are unclear.     

Time and frequency connectedness of green equity indices: Uncovering a socially important link to Bitcoin

Green investment funds continue to interest as a sustainable non-conventional asset class. We examine their interconnectedness, using network and wavelet analyses, with both traditional and non-traditional financial assets. Results indicate that global stock market performance, along with the returns of emerging markets, commodity markets, and FinTech are strongly correlated with green indices. However, in comparison, Bitcoin is found to be isolated, as confirmed by wavelet analyses. When considering the evolution of green investment indices, their role as diversifiers to Bitcoin is especially interesting, suggesting many potential benefits for investors and policymakers. Perhaps the most prominent application of our results is for Bitcoin investors to consider more closely investing in green funds as an offset to concerns about the negative environmental consequences of investing in proof-of-work cryptocurrencies.     

Correlations among cryptocurrencies: Evidence from multivariate factor stochastic volatility model

This paper is the first study to apply the multivariate factor stochastic volatility model (MFSVM) for analyzing the correlations among six cryptocurrencies. We use MFSVM with the Bayesian estimation procedure for the period from August 8, 2015, to January 1, 2020. According to the findings, there is a significant positive correlation between price volatility values of Bitcoin and Litecoin. Besides, the volatility values of Ethereum have a positive correlation with both Ripple and Stellar. There is also a positive correlation between the volatility values of Ripple and Dash. These findings are robust to consider different correlation networks. The evidence implies that Bitcoin is mainly related to Litecoin, but Ethereum is associated with other cryptocurrencies.     

Are cryptocurrencies homogeneous?

This article investigates if cryptocurrencies returns' are similarly affected by a selection of demand- and supply-side determinants. Homogeneity among cryptocurrencies is tested via a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model where determinants of Bitcoin returns are applied to a sample of 12 cryptocurrencies. The analysis goes beyond existing research by simultaneously covering different periods and design choices of cryptocurrencies. The results show that cryptocurrencies are heterogeneous, apart from some similarities in the impact of technical determinants and cybercrime. The cryptocurrency market displays evidence of substitution effects, and design choices related explain the impact of the determinants of return.     

Nonlinear tail dependence in cryptocurrency-stock market returns: The role of Bitcoin futures

We investigate the median and tail dependence between cryptocurrency and stock market returns of BRICS and Developed countries using a newly developed nonparametric cumulative measure of dependence over the period January 4, 2016 – December 31, 2019 as well as before and after the introduction of Bitcoin futures on December 17, 2017. The new measure is model-free and permits measuring tail risk. The results highlight the leading role of S&P500, Nasdaq and DAX 30 in predicting BRICS and developed countries’ stock market returns. Among BRICS countries, BVSP shows a starring role in predicting stock market returns. BSE 30 is the most predictor of cryptocurrencies, which have a little predictability on stock market returns. Ethereum has the leading role in predicting cryptocurrencies and stock market returns followed by Bitcoin. Tail dependence shows substantial role of S&P500, Nasdaq and BVSP in predicting stock market returns. Subsample analysis show the role of Bitcoin futures in reshaping the mean and tail dependence between cryptocurrency and stock market returns. Our results have important policy implications for portfolio managers, hedge funds and investors.     

Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic provided the first widespread bear market conditions since the inception of cryptocurrencies. We test the widely mooted safe haven properties of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether from the perspective of international equity index investors. Bitcoin and Ethereum are not a safe haven for the majority of international equity markets examined, with their inclusion adding to portfolio downside risk. Only investors in the Chinese CSI 300 index realized modest downside risk benefits (contingent on very limited allocations to Bitcoin or Ethereum). As Tether successfully maintained its peg to the US dollar during the COVID-19 turmoil, it acted as a safe haven investment for all of the international indices examined. We caveat the latter findings with a warning that Tether's dollar peg has not always been maintained, with evidence of impaired downside risk hedging properties earlier in our sample.     

Cryptocurrencies and stock market indices. Are they related?

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic properties of six major cryptocurrencies and their bilateral linkages with six stock market indices using fractional integration techniques. From the univariate analysis, we observe that for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected; for Litecoin, Ripple and Stellar, the order of integration is found to be significantly higher than 1; for Tether, however, we find evidence in favour of mean reversion. For the stock market indices, the results are more homogeneous and the unit root cannot be rejected in any of the series, with the exception of VIX where mean reversion is obtained. Concerning bivariate results within the cryptocurrencies and testing for cointegration, we provide evidence of no cointegration between the six cryptocurrencies. Along the same lines, testing for cointegration between the cryptocurrencies and the stock market indices, we find evidence of no cointegration, which implies that the cryptocurrencies are decoupled from the mainstream financial and economic assets. The findings in this paper indicate the significant role of cryptocurrencies in investor portfolios since they serve as a diversification option for investors, confirming that cryptocurrency is a new investment asset class.     

基于“六月货币荒”现象的反思与启示

自2008年爆发国际金融危机以来,对于金融市场的货币供给而言,中央银行先后实施适度宽松和稳健的货币政策,保证了银行体系流动性的充分供给;商业银行保持着低不良贷款率和正常杠杆率,也不会明显削弱其贷款创造能力以及货币供给水平;个人偏好和支付便利导致公众在特定时段更多地持有通货的行为,即使有削弱货币乘数的作用,其影响也是极其轻微和短暂的.因此可以断定,“六月货币荒”并非真实的货币荒,而是某些货币表象的欺骗性所致.“六月货币荒”现象的重要启示是,中央银行的货币政策意向要更加透明,商业银行要加强流动性风险管理和资产负债管理,公众要权衡个人偏好和支付便利与持有通货的货币性成本等诸多因素.这是消除货币表象的欺骗性,避免类似“六月货币荒”现象的出现,以及防止道德风险和逆向选择的基本要求.     

我国预付式代币卡规制法律制度之反思

法律是一个因时而化的问题,其好与坏、精致与拙劣在于能否适应社会发展的内在要求。虽然预付卡存在一些内生的缺陷,但是这并不能成为法律对其永久断然"说不"的理由,因为在本质上,预付卡是科技化时代下市场发展的必然产物。从市场需求、预付卡的特征、内在风险等角度来因势利导、趋利避害地规范预付卡的发展才是应有的法律思维。     

Attention allocation and international stock return comovement: Evidence from the Bitcoin market

We employ extreme Bitcoin returns as exogenous shock events to investigate the impact of investor attention allocation on worldwide stock return comovement. We find that (1) these shock events decrease worldwide stock return comovement, (2) there is an asymmetric effect in which a crash shock event has a greater impact on return comovement than a jump shock event, and (3) the impact of these shock events on equity comovement is more pronounced in emerging markets. Our results suggest that identifying extreme Bitcoin returns will benefit portfolio construction. Our results may be of considerable interest to investors, as well as to academics interested in portfolio diversification, asset comovement, and cryptocurrencies.     

Economic fundamentals or investor perceptions? The role of uncertainty in predicting long-term cryptocurrency volatility

This paper investigates the impacts of News-based Implied Volatility (NVIX) on the long-term volatility of five cryptocurrencies using the GARCH-MIDAS model. We also evaluate the hedging effectiveness of cryptocurrencies against the S&P 500 index after incorporating NVIX. The empirical results show that NVIX has a negative and significant impact on the long-term volatility of five cryptocurrencies. The impact of NVIX remains robust even after controlling for Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) and Realized Volatility (RV). The uncertainty derived from investor perception is more important than the uncertainty of economic fundamentals in predicting cryptocurrency volatility. The hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin against the S&P 500 index is improved due to consideration of NVIX. This paper provides new evidence concerning the impacts of uncertainty on the volatility of cryptocurrencies.