首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
2.
Regime-switching volatility of six East Asian emerging markets   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper investigates regime-switching behaviour in the return-generating processes of six East Asian emerging stock markets over the period from 1970 to 2004 and examines the specific characteristics of each regime by utilizing Markov-switching variance models. The results show very strong evidence of more than one regime in each of these stock markets. In addition, the conditional probabilities of each regime derived from the model provide mixed evidence regarding the impact of financial liberalization on return volatility.  相似文献   

3.
    
This paper analyses the time series behaviour of the initial public offering (IPO) market using an equilibrium model of demand and supply that incorporates the number of new issues, average underpricing, and general market conditions. Model predictions include the existence of serial correlation in both the number of new issues and the average level of underpricing, as well as interactions between these variables and the impact of general market conditions. The model is tested using 40 years of monthly IPO data. The empirical results are generally consistent with predictions.  相似文献   

4.
依据2011年中小板市场股票的日收益率考量对该市场短期动量效应与反转效应。结果显示:当形成期为一周时,持有期为一周、四周、八周的情况下市场均存在收益反转现象;当形成期为两周时,持有期为四周、八周的情况下市场均存在收益反转现象;当形成期为四周、八周时,各种持有期情况下均存在反转效应。重叠抽样结果显示:除了形成期为两周且持有期为两周的情况下,市场效应不明显之外,其他均显著表现为收益反转效应。同时采用静态与动态的投资策略验证2012年上半年的数据,发现时间段的选取对于研究结论有显著的影响;动态投资策略能够实现更为可观的收益,但收益波动也更为剧烈。  相似文献   

5.
6.
本文简要概述了美国资本市场结构演讲的历程,重点分析了美国监管机构对证券市场结构的设计和监管具体政策,强调促进市场竞争是提高市场效率和保护投资者利益的重要手段,监管政策主导市场结构的改革应该从确立正确目标开始,权衡市场各方利益,考虑既得利益及技术惯性因素,循序渐进地实施,以确保改革的成功。  相似文献   

7.
    
The momentum anomaly is widely attributed to investor cognitive biases, but the trigger of cognitive biases is largely unexplored. In this study, inspired by psychology studies linking cognitive biases to the noisiness of information, we examine whether momentum returns are associated with high stock price synchronicity, a manifestation of noisy firm-specific information. Our results demonstrate that momentum is more pronounced in the presence of high stock price synchronicity. This finding is robust to other explanations and firm characteristics. We also find that stock price synchronicity boosts the profitability of momentum by amplifying investor underreaction to new information.  相似文献   

8.
This paper examines the interrelationship between stock prices in the US and Korea by applying the vector autoregression (VAR) model to the daily stock prices at three different level of aggregation – the national aggregate index level, the high-tech industry level and the semiconductor firm level – for the period of July 1996 through February 2001. The major findings of this study are as follows. First, the US stock market plays a leading role over the Korean market at every level of aggregation. The reverse direction of influence, from Korea to the US, was found to be minimal. Second, the evidence also suggests that the speed of transmission of innovation from the US to Korea is swift and finished for the most part within a 24-h period, although it takes three or four days to complete the whole process. Third, the influence of the US stock prices on Korean stock prices, which is measured by the innovation transmission using the impulse–response function (IRF) analysis, seems to be somewhat stronger in the composite national stock price indices and the tech-laden indices than high-tech firms. Fourth, at the firm level, the influence of Micron Technology on the leading semiconductor manufacturers in Korea is shown to be strong and persistent by passing about 34 percent of its innovations to the Korean firms within the three-day period. The impact of IBM and Intel on the Korean chip makers seems to be relatively smaller. Finally, stock prices in Korea, national stock price indices and individual high-tech stocks alike, have become much more responsive to innovations in the US stock prices after the 1997 financial crisis. The implications of the main findings in this paper are also discussed.  相似文献   

9.
This paper investigates the time-series behavior of stock returns for seven Asian stock markets. In most cases, higher average returns appear to be associated with a higher level of volatility. Testing the relationship between stock returns and unexpected volatility, the evidence shows that four out of seven Asian stock markets have significant results. Further analyzing the relationship between stock returns and time-varying volatility by using Threshold Autoregressive GARCH(1,1)-in-mean specification indicates that the null hypothesis of no asymmetric effect on the conditional volatility is rejected for the daily data. However, the null cannot be rejected for the monthly data.  相似文献   

10.
This paper investigates effectiveness of momentum strategies in the Japanese stock market during the period of 1975 to 1997. The main findings of this research are that momentum strategy portfolios which invest in past three-to-twelve month winners and sell past three-to-twelve month losers lose about 0.5% per month over the subsequent three to twelve months. This means that stock prices in the Japanese stock market reverse rather than continue over a medium-term horizon. The most significant reversal pattern is observed at the first month of portfolio formation and is unique to small stocks. Even with the market risk and size factor controlled, the price reversal is still present.  相似文献   

11.
This article studies the effects of the global integration process on emerging stock market excess returns in a dynamic context. I improve the existing literature in four main directions. First, I show that the average excess returns rise as the level of financial and real integration rises. Second, I find overwhelming evidence that the financial liberalizations (i.e. de jure integration) of the late 1980s and early 1990s have not been simultaneously accompanied by a de facto integration. Third, I find that the percentage of variation in emerging excess returns explained by non-traded global risk factors rises as the level of market openness rises. Last, at the country level, I show that the correlation coefficient does not represent a robust measure of integration. Results also suggest that there are substantial cross-country differences in the dynamics of the degree of financial integration.  相似文献   

12.
The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.  相似文献   

13.
14.
Using a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH-M) model, we investigate volatility spillovers in six Southeast Asian stock markets around the time of the 1997 Asian crisis. We focus on interactions with the U.S. market as a world financial market, and with the Japanese market as a regional financial market. We also use bivariate GARCH-M models to examine the behavior of individual markets and their interactions with other markets in the region. All models lend support to the idea of the "Asian contagion," which started in Thailand and rapidly spread to other markets.  相似文献   

15.
储架注册制度允许发行人在注册说明书生效后连续多次发行证券,简化了注册程序,提高了融资灵活性,降低了融资成本,提高了证券市场的效率,颇受发行人欢迎。本文系统介绍了美国储架注册制度的主要内容,并通过对美国采用储架制度的主要原因、过程以及该制度对证券市场的影响的分析,探讨我国证券发行中建立类似制度的可行性。  相似文献   

16.
    
We demonstrate that when the variables comprising a firm's investment opportunity set depend on their past values then the present value of the cash flows the firm expects to earn will be stated in terms of the levels and the momentum of the affected variables. It is also shown that the market value of a firm's equity is comprised of the present value of the cash flows it expects to earn from operating under its existing investment opportunity set plus the value of the real options the firm possesses to modify or even completely change its existing investment opportunity set. Our empirical analysis, based on both Chinese and US data, shows that earnings momentum and the adaptation and growth options typically available to firms all appear to have a significant impact on equity prices.  相似文献   

17.
    
We determine the industry-level supply-chain predictability in the Chinese stock market. Evidence is provided that a limited information model is gradually adaptive to the Chinese stock market in recent years, while several traditional measures of informed trading perform differently in the previous period. An innovative indicator of the mobile ratio volatility is also proposed here, which relates the increasing mobile trading behavior to this cross-sectional predictability. Furthermore, we explain the asymmetry of customer and supplier momentum in this market.  相似文献   

18.
The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.  相似文献   

19.
Tian, Wan and Guo (2002) explored the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules in markets with different efficiency levels; namely, the U.S. and China. In the case of the U.S. they found rules to have no predictability after 1975, whereas their results give support to technical trading rules having both predictability and profitability for the Chinese markets across the 1990's. The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of Tian et al. in two ways. First, to see if the conclusions extend to other markets – namely, the U.K., Hong Kong and Japan. Second, in the case of China, to examine whether the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules changed across the 1990's. On the basis of daily data Tian et al's results for the U.S. market are supported by the results for a number of the main developed markets where the technical trading rules had predictive ability during the 1970's that disappeared by the 1990's. Furthermore, the results suggest that while technical trading rules had short term predictive ability and profitability in the Chinese stock markets during the 1990's, this lessened as the decade progressed. JEL Classification: G14, G15  相似文献   

20.
We empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market and world oil prices in the period 1997:10–2012:02. We also analyze countries that can be considered to be relatively similar to Russia, e.g., Poland, the Czech Republic, and South Africa. First, we apply a rolling regression to identify periods when oil prices or stock indices in the United States and Japan were important. Surprisingly, oil prices are not significant for the Russian stock market after 2006. Second, we employ a TGARCH-BEKK model to assess the degree of correlation between the markets in question, taking into account the global market stochastic trend. Correlation between markets increased between 2000 and 2012.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号