Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future

The macroeconometric simulation model AMOD1 and the optimization algorithm OPTCON are used to evaluate fiscal policies for Austria since the late seventies. In particular, the question of optimal (debt stabilizing) fiscal policies for the past and for the future is analyzed within the framework of a medium-scaled simulation model. The first set of optimization experiments aims to assess optimal fiscal policies for debt stabilization for the historical period 1978–2000 while trying to maintain reasonable growth rates of approximately 2 percent of real GDP. Optimal values of the instruments and the targets are compared to empirical data for Austria. A second set of simulations calculates optimal paths for the fiscal instruments for the period 2001-2010, particularly with respect to the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is mandatory for member states of the Euro zone.     

The Efficiency of Active Labor Market Policies: A Comparative Analysis of Tunisia and OECD Countries’

ABSTRACT

On the third anniversary of the Egyptian revolution and against the backdrop of lingering political instability and deteriorating economic conditions, we diagnose the constraints to sectoral growth in Egypt using the 2011 Egyptian revolution as a natural experiment. We combine quantile regressions to study sector outliers with a difference in difference methodology to capture sectoral behavior before and after revolution. We find that the revolution's effect has been adverse, on average, but heterogeneous across sectors. We identify and characterize sectors most and least impacted. Results reveal that Egypt's fastest growing sectors before Revolution have been the most vulnerable after Revolution. This evidence is supported by our diagnosis approach that shows that faster growing sectors are constrained by continuous increases in prices that threaten export competitiveness (as they erode the benefits accrued to nominal depreciation of currency). Such sectors also benefited from higher monetary growth and fewer constraints on credit availability that have mitigated somewhat the speed of deterioration in the aftermath of the revolution. Our results, which hold under several robustness checks, inform policy priorities as to how to revive investors’ confidence, boost competitiveness, and design priorities in industrial policy to ease structural impediments and align sectoral growth with macro priorities.     

The Effects of Competition on Banks’ Risk Taking

We consider the joint effect of competition and deposit insurance on risk taking by banks when bank risk is unobservable to depositors. It turns out that the magnitude of risk taking depends on the structure and side of the market in which competition takes place. If the bank is a monopoly or banks are competing only in the loan market, deposit insurance has no effect on risk taking. Banks in this situation tend to take risk, although extreme risk taking is avoided. In contrast, introducing deposit insurance increases risk taking if banks are competing for deposits. Then, deposit rates become excessively high, thereby forcing banks to take extreme risks.     

Risk and rationalization—The role of affect and cognitive dissonance for sexual risk taking

In spite of increased awareness of HIV/AIDS, high levels of sexual risk taking persist among individuals in HIV susceptible groups. The lack of behavioral change has long puzzled both researchers and policy makers. In this paper, an attempt is made to disentangle mechanisms underlying excessive sexual risk taking. Drawing on ideas from psychology, related to decision-making processes and risk evaluation, an intertemporal model is developed and analyzed. More specifically, the theoretical model merges psychological theories of affect-induced myopia and cognitive dissonance with economic theory of utility maximization. The results of the theoretical analysis suggest that, if sexual arousal is associated with shortsighted behavior, the fear of an HIV infection may reduce the effect of HIV information campaigns via the effect of cognitive dissonance. The results further suggest that policy aimed to increase awareness of rationalization tendencies may constitute an important complement to existing AIDS policies.     

New Frontiers of Profit and Risk: The Fourth Industrial Revolution’s Impact on Business and Human Rights

ABSTRACT

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterised by the fusion of physical, digital, and biological technologies, will have profound social and economic consequences. But what impact will it have on human rights? This article critically interrogates key writings and speeches about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which requires reading between the lines of technical, business, and policy-orientated materials that rarely address human rights explicitly. The findings are a mix of good and bad news. First, the traditional linkage between economic competition and violations of bodily integrity is weakening as new forms of profitability in tomorrow’s digital ecosystems require empowered and creative individuals. However, these celebratory visions of the profitable interpenetration of our bodies, hardware and virtual worlds has a dark side. The next-generation of human rights violations arising from transnational business activities will be increasingly subtle, diffuse, and sophisticated.     

The reason for ‘The Reason of Rules’

This paper is an attempt to locate the writing of the book, The Reason of Rules, in its intellectual and temporal setting. The object is to capture something of the ambitions of the book and to assess its limitations as perceived three decades after its writing. It includes some personal reflections on the experience of Buchanan as a co-author.     

Right-Wing Populism and Neoliberalism in Germany: The AfD’s Embrace of Ordoliberalism

This article analyses the ambiguous relation between right-wing populism and neoliberalism in Germany. It concentrates on the connections between and convergence of right-wing populism and ordoliberalism, a specific type of neoliberalism that was developed by the Freiburg School since the late 1920s and which the new right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) explicitly focuses on in its economic programme. In its attempt to analyse the affinity of the AfD to ordoliberalism, this study relies on Michel Foucault’s account of ordoliberalism in his book The Birth of Biopolitics and his concept of governmentality. It was found that the AfD wants to bring ordoliberalism into service of an authoritarian project in Germany and beyond. This economic approach combines neoliberalism with authoritarian forms of government through the governmentalisation of the state. Ordoliberals prescribe a regulatory framework for the economy which is centred on the creation of a competitive order. It is meant to produce and justify social differences. Right-wing populists connect the economic differentiation system provided by ordoliberalism with the differentiation systems of nation, race, religion and culture. Thus, the neoliberal principle of competition is used not only to justify inequality among German citizens but also among European countries.     

The role of transformational leadership and leaders’ skills for new agricultural cooperatives in post-soviet countries

Team leadership plays a crucial role in the management of agricultural cooperatives, especially in post-Soviet countries where farmers keep bad experiences from the collectivization of their farms. The main objective of the research was to investigate how important the role of leadership is in the process of establishing, initial sustaining of cooperation and members’ commitment among small farmers in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Leadership was analysed from multiple perspectives using an explanatory sequential mixed approach involving quantitative and qualitative methods. We interviewed 293 cooperative leaders and members. The partial least squares structural equation model was used to examine the relationship between multiple constructs and variables. We concluded that leaders do differ in some of their characteristics from other members. They are the most active in the group, influencing all major decisions, playing a crucial role in trust-building and group cohesion. Their skills and leadership style are significantly important for members’ commitment to the group's success. However, the dominance of group founders and lack of understanding of cooperative principles among members indicate some emerging challenges to the cooperatives’ sustainability and efficiency, and it is necessary to focus on the progressive professionalization and capacity building of leaders while maintaining a transformational leadership style.     

The ‘curse of dimensionality’ resolved: The effects of climate change and trade barriers in large dimensional modelling

Solving large scale optimisation problems over space and time quickly generates a computational impasse, termed the ‘curse of dimensionality’. This severely limits the practical use of economic models, especially for determining the effects of climate change and protectionist trade policies. In this paper, we employ an innovative approach to solving (otherwise unsolvable) large scale systems through the use of parallel processing methods and a proper ordering of variables and equations in a ‘Nested Doubly Bordered Block Diagonal’ form. We illustrate how the approach can be used to solve an intertemporal CGE model with more than 500 million equations. Using existing damage functions, the framework allows us to determine the impact of climate change on long-run economic growth for 112 countries as a result of the effect of sea-level rise on land endowments, variation in crop yields and productivity and shifts in the demand for energy and transportation. We also compare our solution to more common (and smaller dimensional) recursive methods, in terms of both the economic effects of climate change and potential increases in trade barriers, showing the power and efficiency of our computational approach and parallel processing routine.     

OPEC’s Risk Premia and Volatility in Oil Prices

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper discusses a reason for volatility in oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC’s) revenues are...     

The Professional Development of Graduate Students for Teaching Activities: The Students’ Perspective

This article provides insight into the skill-development activities of graduate students at U.S. institutions providing graduate education in economics. The authors document the extent of student participation in and preparation for teaching-related activities while in graduate school, finding that more than 50 percent of students are involved in teaching-related activities such as grading, leading recitation sections, and teaching their own sections and that most were satisfied with their preparation. Important differences in participation in these activities are highlighted by assistantship assignments, institution rank, and gender. Findings suggest that programs could do more to prepare students for participation in teaching specific professional activities after graduation.     

The Analysis and Assessment of the Creation Investment Risk in the High and New Technology, Enterprise

The creation risk investmentof the high and new technology enterprise isthe way to finance：and invest for the business period. After we putting the capital into the high and new. technology project.that is in the devetopment stage, the enterprise can, acquire high, increase, by the. support and assistance ＇of, the. capital and management. After the enterprise grew up, it can achieve high benefits by selling stock, attorning the enterprise, and dealing property rights, etc. Finally it secedes form the enterprise invested. The purpose of total analysis in the respective stage for the business investment cause including cause prosperities, object, risk, is to comprehensively understand the effect on the anticipation ratio of the benefit, investment distribution, the stock property proportion which is offered by the activity content, and the emphasis of the assessment in the respective stages of the creation risk investment cause.     

The macroeconomics of the quiet revolution: Understanding the implications of the rise in women’s participation for economic growth and inequality

We study the impact of the rise in female labor supply on the economic performance of the United States over the period 1967–2002 through the lens of a calibrated structural model. The model features all the key forces behind the increase in female participation (the “Quiet Revolution”): (1) the decline in marriage rates, (2) the narrowing gender wage gap, (3) the preference (or cultural) shift towards market work, and (4) the change in women’s bargaining power within the household. We find that preference shifts and the rise in relative wages of women were the most important driving forces behind rising women’s participation, while changes in marriage patterns have also had a sizeable effect. We conclude that half of the growth in US earnings per capita over this period can be traced to growth in female labor supply. We also find that the rise in female labor supply has had offsetting effects on income inequality and, therefore, its overall role has been negligible relative to skill-biased demand shifts and rising residual wage volatility.     

Do Institutional and Individual Investors Differ in Their Preference for Financial Skewness?

Employing a unique sample of individual and institutional investors, we conduct experiments to determine investors’ preference for (or indifference to) financial skewness. We present investors with a series of stocks with varying levels of skewness. Using Instant Response Devices, we then collect investors’ choices to hold or sell each stock. Among stocks with equal expected returns, we find strong evidence that the sample investors use a prospect theory utility function rather than a mean-variance expected utility function to decide to sell or hold stocks. In the loss domain, we find that investors are ambivalent about the choice between positively and negatively skewed stocks. However, in the gain domain, we find that both individual and institutional investors prefer negatively skewed stocks—a contrast from previous research suggesting that individuals (and not institutional investors) prefer positive skewness. We also find evidence suggesting that reference points are important in financial decision making.     

Risk premia and the foreign exchange market: The European Monetary System versus the ‘rest of the world’

This paper presents a new test of the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity. The possibility of investors' risk aversion is taken explicitly into account. The empirical work investigates proxies for various forms of risk over the period 1974(1)–1982(4) between the EMS and the ‘rest of the world’. Our results show that investors are sensitive to interest rate risk.     

The ‘Value’ of Europe: The Political Economy of Culture in the European Community

During the 1970s and 1980s the “cultural sector” became one of the primary motors for wealth creation in the European Community. At the European and national scales, a group of actors helped transform Europe's vast array of practices and services (tourism, heritage, books, audio-visual products, etc.) into “cultural industries” and pushed the EC to develop a common cultural policy to support these industries. Documenting these changes at the European scale, I argue that the perceived impact of cultural policy for particular national economic competitiveness was also significant. Italian MEPs and members of Italy's national government were especially important, as they fought to protect the country's historical heritage and promote tourism. France pushed the strongest and I show how that country's efforts were primarily intended to protect its audio-visual and publishing industries from the EC internal market's liberalisation policies, which were vocally supported by Britain because they would have served that county's national economic interests.