井冈山市天然林游憩价值核算

本文应用消费者剩余理论,建立游览率与旅行费用等因子的相关关系方程,求出旅游需求曲线;以旅行费用法计算井冈山市的游憩价值。     

Endogenously chosen travel costs and the travel cost model: an application to mountain biking at Moab,Utah

The travel cost model is frequently used to estimate net willingness to pay for recreation at remote sites by using the visitor's travel costs as a proxy for the price of recreation. However, some concern has been raised over the validity of using the visitor's stated travel costs as a proxy for price. This paper addresses some of these concerns, by examining the possible over-estimation of consumer surplus due to endogenously chosen travel costs. This paper extends past theoretical work for the linear model by developing a correction for endogenously chosen travel costs in more commonly used nonlinear models such as the Poisson or count data model. Also provided is the first empirical test of the presence of endogeneity and an estimate of the magnitude of the error from ignoring endogeneity in travel costs. After applying this test and the correction to data that was gathered for mountain biking at Moab, Utah the estimate of consumer surplus falls from US $153 to US $135, which is a 12% reduction.     

Specification and testing of count data recreation demand functions

This article examines the effects of alternative formulations of count data recreation demand models on parameter estimates, model selection, and consumer surplus. The results indicate that large parameter and consumer surplus differences exists across the various count model formulations. More importantly, the results show that distributional assumptions, heteroscedastic functional forms, and overdispersion can have a substantial effect on consumer surplus estimates.     

The amenity value of climate change across different regions in the United States

This article estimates the effect of climatic variables on house prices near ski resorts in different regions in the United States. We find that among the climate variables we test, average winter temperature has the most significant and robust effect where an increase in this climate variable increases house prices near ski resorts at a decreasing rate. At the mean average winter temperature levels, an increase in average winter temperature reduces housing prices for all regions except the Northeast. The consumer surplus from projected average winter temperature changes is negative across all regions and the largest negative effects are in the Midwest and Mountain regions.     

Deriving and Testing Efficient Estimates of WTP Distributions in Destination Choice Models

Estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation. To this end, qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies. A frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management. We review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the WTP-space (Train K, Weeks M (2005) Discrete choice models in preference space and willing-to-pay space. In: Scarpa R, Alberini A (eds) Applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics, chapter 1. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 1–16). Our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data. We emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the WTP-space approach, and illustrate these with examples.     

Wind turbines and coastal recreation demand

We examine the impact of coastal wind turbines on local coastal tourism and recreation for residents of the northeastern coastal counties in North Carolina. A combination of telephone and web survey data are used to assess the impact of coastal wind farms on trip behavior and site choice. Most of the respondents to our telephone survey claim to support offshore wind energy development, and independent survey data suggest that the observed levels of support may be indicative of the broader population in this region. Overall, we find very little impact of coastal wind turbines on aggregate recreational visitation; loss in annual consumer surplus associated with wide spread wind development in the coastal zone is insignificant at $17 (or about 1.5% of annual consumer surplus). Results suggest that NC local coastal tourists are averse to wind farms in the near-shore zone; average compensating variation for wind farms one mile from the shore is estimated at $55 per household. On average, we find no evidence of aversion to wind farms 4 miles out in the ocean, or for wind farms located in coastal estuaries. For all wind farm scenarios, we find evidence of preference heterogeneity—some respondents find this appealing while others find it aversive.     

Using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non-priced open-access outdoor recreation sites. To begin, the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site. The population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and GIS techniques and an individual-level ‘visitor arrival function’ is then transferred across this simulated population. This allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed, providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site. Combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site. The approach is applied to Moyode Wood, a small-scale forest in the West of Ireland, and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at €0.4 million for the site. The research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites. It also demonstrates how individual-level single-site travel cost models estimated using on-site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites.     

Utility theoretic semi-logarithmic incomplete demand systems in a natural experiment: Forest fire impacts on recreational values and use

This study develops a utility theoretic demand model for an arbitrary number of goods that handles correlation between goods and over time. The bivariate compound Poisson estimator is applied to a semi-logarithmic incomplete demand system to estimate the demand for wilderness recreation and the associated welfare measures both prior to and post a 40,000 acre wilderness fire in Washington. Forest fires can simultaneously affect the environmental qualities of many recreational sites; this highlights the need for a utility theoretic demand system approach for modeling consumer behavior that handles the dynamic behavioral and statistical interdependencies over goods and time. Results suggest an increase in consumer welfare per trip post fire, after an initial period of low values, relative to before the fire.     

TCM模型在影视类旅游景区游憩价值评估中的应用——以宁夏西部影视城为例

旅行费用法（TCM）是目前应用较为广泛的游憩价值评估方法。选取宁夏影视类典型旅游景区——西部影视城作为研究案例,在国内外相关研究综述的基础上,运用TCM法对该景区淡旺季游客的综合问卷调查数据的评价分析,评估出2010年西部影视城的游憩价值为829.4万元,并针对分析结果提出了一些浅显的观点,以期为宁夏旅游景区制定营销规划和策略提供参考。     

Measuring recreation benefits of quality improvements with revealed and stated behavior data

We propose a combined revealed and stated behavior estimation method to measure recreation benefits of a fixed quality improvement that directly addresses the issues of variation in environmental quality beyond the observed range and new participation induced by higher quality. We survey a sample of the general population, including non-participants, to obtain stated preference data for trips based on a policy-relevant estuarine quality improvement. Panel recreation demand models that take into account new participants induced by the higher quality are estimated and used to derive total consumer surplus.     

The welfare impact of policy interventions in the foodgrain markets in Bangladesh

The paper attempts to estimate the welfare impact of different policy interventions in the foodgrain markets in Bangladesh using an economic surplus approach. Over the period of analysis, 1980–2003, the loss in consumer surplus exceeded the gain in producer surplus plus the gain in government revenue. Therefore, the interventions resulted in a deadweight welfare loss for society. In contrast, in the policy of liberalization, the gain in consumer surplus and in government revenue is larger than the loss in producer surplus, producing a net welfare gain to society.     

Welfare gain from quality and price development in the Japan’s LCD TV market

We estimate the welfare gain from innovations in the LCD TVs that prevailed during the period 2005–2007 in Japan, via consumer surplus that we measure with the aid of discrete choice methods, using market data obtained from an internet price comparison service (Kakaku.com). Further, by the measured implicit values of attributes, we evaluate in monetary terms, the qualitative transition embedded in the attributes through the iso-consumer surplus planes. We thereby disaggregate the welfare gain into the qualitative and the budgetary components, which we call the quality gain, and the budget gain, respectively. The estimates show, along with the evolved process of innovation, that the quality gain was in the order of 381 KJPY, while the budget gain was 94 KJPY negative, which gives about 287 KJPY of overall welfare gain per consumer, during the period.     

A Latent Class Nested Logit Model for Rank-Ordered Data with Application to Cork Oak Reforestation

We analyze stated ranking data collected from recreational visitors to the Alcornocales Natural Park (ANP) in Spain. The ANP is a large protected area which comprises mainly cork oak woodlands. The visitors ranked cork oak reforestation programs delivering different sets of environmental (reforestation technique, biodiversity, forest surface) and social (jobs and recreation sites created) outcomes. We specify a novel latent class nested logit model for rank-ordered data to estimate the distribution of willingness-to-pay for each outcome. Our modeling approach jointly exploits recent advances in discrete choice methods. The results suggest that prioritizing biodiversity would increase certainty over public support for a reforestation program. In addition, a substantial fraction of the visitor population are willing to pay more for the social outcomes than the environmental outcomes, whereas the existing reforestation subsidies are often justified by the environmental outcomes alone.     

Competition Between Networks: A Study of the Market for Yellow Pages

This paper estimates the importance of network effects in the market for Yellow Pages. I estimate three simultaneous equations: consumer demand for usage of a directory, advertiser demand for advertising and a publisher's first-order condition (derived from profit-maximizing behaviour). Estimation shows that advertisers value consumer usage and that consumers value advertising, implying a network effect. I find that internalizing network effects would significantly increase surplus. As an application, I consider whether the market benefits from monopoly (which takes advantage of network effects) or oligopoly (which reduces market power). I find that a more competitive market is preferable.     

THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON CONSUMER SURPLUS, PROFIT, AND SOCIAL WELFARE

This study estimates the effect of U.S. cigarette advertising on social welfare. Because economists hold different beliefs about the nature of advertising, the analysis uses three different empirical models to test the welfare implication of cigarette advertising. Each model employs estimates of a demand equation and a supply relation to calculate a single point estimate of the impact of advertising on profit, consumer surplus, and total surplus. Bootstrapping generates confidence intervals for each welfare estimate. The results indicate that the cigarette industry is not competitive and that advertising significantly increases market power. Further, advertising significantly reduces consumer surplus if it is either purely persuasive or purely informative but has no significant effect on total surplus.     

An econometric assessment of telecommunications prices and consumer surplus in Mexico using panel data

We analyze telecommunications prices in Mexico by using a panel data of countries similar to Mexico to estimate demand models for mobile and fixed-line telecommunications. We find that Mexico’s actual mobile and fixed-line prices are below the predicted prices based on similar countries’ prices. Mexican consumers are paying lower prices than what one would expect based on comparisons of comparable countries. We calculate that in 2011 Mexican consumers received at least $4–$5 billion (USD) in consumer surplus from these lower mobile prices and in 2010 they received over $1 billion (USD) in consumer surplus from these lower fixed-line prices. These findings are in contrast to the general perception that concentrated telecommunications markets in Mexico are resulting in high prices and harming consumers.     

Estimates of the option values for water quality improvements

This paper presents estimates of the option values associated with increased oppurtunities for outdoor recreation resulting from improved water quality. The estimates are based on a 1981 survey of 301 households in the Pennsylvania Monongahela River Basin.     

Bounding consumer surplus by monopoly profits

Regulatory agencies and other public authorities in the United States frequently require private firms seeking regulatory approvals to enter geographic markets, or offer products, that they would not otherwise provide. Examples include “build-out” rules for cable television franchisees, and universal service or “common carrier” obligations. The social welfare consequences of such policies are often difficult to evaluate because, among other things, consumer surpluses generated by entry must be assessed. This article shows that the level of (variable) monopoly profits in the markets of interest can be used to place an upper bound on the associated consumer surplus whenever demand vanishes at a sufficiently high price. This result, which is new, can then be used to evaluate the social consequences of forced entry. Our methods can also be used to provide a bound on the change in consumer surplus resulting from the imposition of regulated prices on an existing monopoly.      

Consumers' Surplus As an Exact and Superlative Cardinal Welfare Indicator

This article shows that the Bennet-Bowley consumer surplus measure is an exact measure of Allais' disposable surplus if the consumer's utility function is of the translation-homothetic generalized quadratic form. The Bennet-Bowley consumer surplus measure, therefore, is a superlative cardinal welfare measure for the entire class of translation homothetic preferences. Because the exactness results in this article apply for cardinal welfare measures, they can be meaningfully aggregated across consumers to make aggregate welfare comparisons.     

CAN RECREATION VALUES FOR A LAKE CONSTITUTE A MARKET FOR BANKED AGRICULTURAL WATER?

This paper presents estimates of the recreational use value to prevent the loss of a western lake threatened by diversions of upstream waters that supply it. The recreation demand model used to estimate recreation-related values is the popular repeated nested multinomial logit model. The model is specified to allow an individual to choose when to visit various sites during the season, because site choice is likely to be influenced by water levels that change over the course of the season. The values are compared to agricultural values in order to assess whether the potential recreation demand side of a market for a water bank exists.