Effects of North–South trade on wage inequality and on human-capital accumulation

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with technological knowledge directed towards high- versus low-skilled labour, augmented with North–South international trade of intermediate goods and with human-capital accumulation, to analyse how trade affects wage inequality and the inter-country human-capital gap. Trade is a vehicle for inter-country technological-knowledge diffusion and human-capital accumulation interacts with the intra-country direction of technological knowledge arising from trade. In contrast with the market-size effect, stressed in the skill-biased technological change literature, the operation of the price channel following openness to trade predicts, in line with the recent trends in developed and developing countries, an increasing technological-knowledge bias towards high-skilled human capital. This, in turn, decreases inter-country gaps of technological knowledge and human capital and increases intra-country wage inequality. Also in line with recent empirical evidence, inter-country wage convergence is induced by the trade-opening level effect.     

A model of trust in quality and North–South trade

Why do some countries produce higher quality goods than other countries? This paper suggests that one reason is self-perpetuating reputations, modelling the idea with a Klein–Leffler reputation model embedded in a general equilibrium model of trade. Reputation differences are particularly interesting because reputation is a form of “social capital”. Like product differentiation, it can explain why countries might trade even if their technologies and endowments are identical, why firms could profit from exports even if the foreign price is no higher than the domestic one, and why governments like to have “high-value” sectors. Ideally, a developing country would shift its own producers to a high-quality equilibrium; if that is not possible, the next best thing is to import experience goods and substitute to home production of goods for which reputation is not important.     

North–South Trade and Pollution Migration: The Debate Revisited

The paper examines the effect of freer North–South trade in goods on pollution, commodity terms-of-trade and national welfare, utilizing a factor endowment framework. North and South are distinguished in terms of the relative endowment of a pollution causing natural resource: South is relatively more resource abundant. Compared to the analysis of Copeland and Taylor (1994)—which is the central work so far on this subject—this paper internalizes the commodity terms-of-trade impact of individual environment policies. It is derived that if countries specialize completely in the free-trade equilibrium, both are induced to reduce their pollution as compared to autarky. It is interesting and paradoxical that the South also reduces its pollution, despite specializing in the pollution-intensive good. Again, contrary to common perception, free trade may entail an overall terms-of-trade loss for the North, while South will always have a positive change in the terms-of-trade. Finally, inspite of better environment, free trade may cause both the countries to gain or lose in terms of aggregate welfare. This research has benefitted from comments received at the conference on International Dimension of Environment Policy organized by the European Science Foundation and Tilburg University, October 7–12, 2000 Kerkrade, The Netherlands and the International Conference on Environment and Development organized by CITD, School of International Studies, JNU, April 7–8, 2005, New Delhi, India, as well as those received from two anonymous referees. A small section of this research was published in Mehra and Das (2002).     

North–South technology transfer in unionised multinationals

We study how incentives for North–South technology transfers in multinational enterprises are affected by labour market institutions. If workers are collectively organised, incentives for technology transfers are partly governed by firms' desire to curb trade union power. Higher union bargaining power in the North leads to more technology transfer along two different dimensions – skill upgrading of Southern workers and quality upgrading of products produced in the South – possibly to the extent that the utility of Northern workers decline. Policies to raise the wage levels of Southern workers might spur technology transfer if wages are initially very low, but have a dampening effect on North–South technology transfer once the Southern wage level has surpassed a certain threshold level. These conclusions are reached in a setting where a unionised multinational multiproduct firm produces vertically differentiated products in Northern and Southern subsidiaries.     

Trade and Specialisation in Pollution Intensive Industries: North–South Evidence

Abstract

The pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) and the capital-labour hypothesis (KLH) state that the relative level of a country's environmental regulations and capital and labour endowments determines its comparative advantage respectively. Since these hypotheses lead to conflicting predictions as to whether the North or the South will specialise in pollution-intensive production, this paper examines whether changes in trade and specialisation patterns allow us to distinguish between pollution haven and factor endowment effects. We employ a methodology that enables us to present North-South trade patterns over time and to identify those periods when trade patterns were consistent with either the PHH and/or the KLH as a foundation for undertaking more detailed econometric studies.     

The Energy-Bias of North–South Technology Spillovers: A Global,Bilateral, Bisectoral Trade Analysis

We examine variations in the South–North ratios (emerging vs. industrialized countries) of energy and labor intensities driven by imports. We use the novel World input-output database that provides bilateral and bisectoral data for 40 countries and 35 sectors for 1995–2009. We find South–North convergence of energy and labor intensities, an energy bias of import-driven convergence and no robust difference between imports of intermediate and investment goods. Accordingly, trade helps emerging economies follow a ‘green growth’ path, and trade-related policies can enhance this path. However, the effects are economically small and require a long time horizon to become effective. Trade-related policies can become much more effective in selected countries and sectors: China attenuates labor intensity via imports of intermediate goods above average. Brazil reduces energy intensity via imports of intermediate and investment goods above average. Production of machinery as an importing sector in emerging countries can immoderately benefit from trade-related reductions in factor intensities. Electrical equipment as a traded good particularly decreases energy intensity. Machinery particularly dilutes labor intensity. Our main results are statistically highly significant and robust across specifications.     

Innovation,imitation and multinationalisation in a North–South model: a theoretical note

We consider a dynamic general equilibrium product variety model of international product cycle with endogenous rate of imitation in the South; and find that a policy of strengthening intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in the South lowers the rate of product innovation, rate of multinationalisation and South–North relative wage if multinationalisation [or, foreign direct investment (FDI)] is the channel of production transfer. These results are significantly different from those obtained in the exogenous imitation model of Lai (J Dev Econ 55(1): 133–153, 1998). So a stronger IPR protection policy adopted by the South may not be interpreted as an incentive to encourage Northern FDI in the South and to raise the rate of innovation in the North.      

North–South asymmetry,unilateral environmental policy and carbon tariffs

This paper focuses on the potential impact of a carbon tariff on carbon emissions, North–South trade and welfare. We use a North–South trade model, where North implements a unilateral environmental policy on domestic carbon-intensive industries followed by a carbon tariff on imports from South. Unlike the existing studies, we allow asymmetry in clean production technologies and marginal environmental damage. We show that a carbon tariff can reduce the global carbon emission via the use of a more advanced clean production technology in North, which increases the firm profit and welfare. However, improvement in welfare of North is associated with a decrease in global trade flows and welfare of South. We find that, in the presence of asymmetry in clean production technologies between North and South, a carbon tariff introduced by the North can eliminate carbon leakage, but the exports of South decrease below the pre-unilateral environmental policy level and hence North can potentially use a carbon tariff for trade protectionism in the name of reducing carbon leakage in South.     

A rigorous approach to business services offshoring and North–North trade

Advances in information and communication technologies (ICTs) have gained economy-wide importance and raised concerns that even within North–North trade neither services nor high-skilled labour may be sheltered from international competition. Rather, both may be increasingly susceptible to offshoring. We present a novel theoretical framework for analysing offshoring with a focus on skilled labour in managing value-added chains. Thoroughly modelling demand and supply allows to explicitly track cause and effects. Accordingly, effects of business service offshoring are completely different and more diverse than those of material offshoring, with the effects inter alia depending on whether triggered by trade integration or ICT.     

Endogenous Imitation and Technology Absorption in a Model of North–South Trade

Abstract

This paper considers the transfer of technology from the North to the South that occurs through trade in high-technology goods and explicitly models the ‘reverse-engineering’ process that allows the South to assimilate new technologies. A key finding of this study is that the South's rate of growth is dictated by the size of the country's human capital, which determines its absorptive capacity and its ability to assimilate knowledge from the North. We find that while a Southern country that is poor in human capital can only imitate, Southern countries that possess sufficiently large human capital endowments, beyond a certain threshold, signal the onset of innovation. We also find that the North enjoys a higher rate of innovation and growth with trade than without. North's gains are the highest when it trades with a human-capital ‘poor’ South, because imitation increases South's demand for Northern intermediates. But trade with the Southern countries that are human capital rich (and therefore involved in innovation), dampens their demand for Northern imports, adversely affecting North's growth. The model predicts growth convergence between the North and a South that is well passed the threshold for innovation.     

North–South terms‐of‐trade trends from 1960 to 2006

The composition of exports of developing countries is increasingly dominated by manufactured goods. This has not changed the fact that their major trading partners continue to be the developed countries. In order to properly assess the distribution of gains from trade, there is a pressing need to analyze the movements in the terms of trade of developing countries with respect to the developed ones. A statistical analysis of the North–South terms of trade reveals that the terms of trade have turned against the South since the 1960s. However, the terms‐of‐trade deterioration is neither continuous nor evenly distributed over different country groupings. The existence of a structural break in the mid‐to‐late 1970s together with the greatest adverse terms‐of‐trade movements against the highly indebted and least developed countries attest the discontinuity and unevenness of this process.     

Coping with Preference Anomalies in Cost–Benefit Analysis: A Market-Simulation Approach

This paper proposes a methodological strategy for cost–benefit analysis (CBA) which does not require the assumption that individuals’ preferences satisfy standard coherence conditions, and so renders CBA immune to the problems generated by preference anomalies. The proposal treats CBA as an exercise in market simulation, based on the measurement of surplus. Anomalies occur when surplus measurements vary according to the hypothetical payment mechanism used. In such cases, the mechanism that is the “closest market analogue” should be used. This approach is used to resolve problems associated with some familiar anomalies, including inconsistencies between “citizen” and “consumer” valuations, and endowment effects. JEL classifications: D61, D63, Q51     

Wage inequality in developing countries: South–South trade matters

The relationship between trade liberalization and inequality has received considerable attention in recent years. The major purpose of this study is to present new results on the sources of wage inequalities in manufacturing taking into account South–South (S–S) trade. Globalization has not only lead to increasing North–South (N–S) trade, but it has also changed the direction and composition of trade as more trade is carried out among developing countries. In this study, we find that increasing wage inequality is associated more with the South–South trade liberalization than with the classical trade liberalization with northern countries. A part of this increasing wage inequality due to S–S trade comes from the development of N–S trade relationship in S–S trade that increases wage inequality in middle-income developing countries. This study also seeks to shed some light on the link between the direction of trade and technological change. We explore the fact that S–S trade leads to a technological change biased toward skill-intensive sectors more than N–S trade. This indirect effect increases wage inequality for all developing countries, but it is more important in low-income countries.     

Technology transfers and the clean development mechanism in a North–South general equilibrium model

This paper analyses the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from Annex I to non-Annex I in order to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on a numerical general equilibrium model for a world-economy comprising two regions; North (Annex I) and South (non-Annex I). In a cooperative equilibrium, a technology transfer from the North to the South is clearly desirable from the perspective of a ‘global social planner’, since the welfare gain for the South outweighs the welfare loss for the North. However, if the regions do not cooperate, then the incentives to introduce the technology transfer appear to be relatively weak from the perspective of the North; at least if we allow for Southern abatement in the pre-transfer Nash equilibrium. Finally, by adding the emission reductions associated with the Kyoto agreement, our results show that the technology transfer leads to higher welfare in both regions.     

A new international database on education quality: 1965–2010

The aim of this article is to propose a new database allowing a comparative evaluation of the relative performance of schooling systems around the world. We measure this performance through pupils’ achievement in standardized tests. We merge all existing regional and international student achievement tests by using a specific methodology. When compared with other existing databases, our approach innovates in several ways, especially by including regional student achievement tests and intertemporal comparable indicators. We provide a data set of indicators of quality of student achievement for 103 countries/areas in primary education and 111 countries/areas in secondary education between 1965 and 2010.     

The opening of the North–South divide: Cumulative causation,household income disparity and the regional bonus in Taiwan 1976–2005

During the last decades regional income divergence seems to have reappeared in both developed and developing countries. In Taiwan – a renowned case of growth with equity – regional per capita income was converging until the early 1990s after which it began to diverge. With the help of modeled annual household survey data from 1976 to 2005 we indicate the magnitude of a regional bonus and discuss reasons behind the re-opening of the North–South income divide in Taiwan. Our analysis suggests that this process is a consequence of cumulative causation connected to the advent of the rise of ICT industry in conjunction with changes in Taiwan's political economy which provided relatively more advantageous economic opportunities for the industrial structure of the leading region.     

Globalization,socio-institutional factors and North–South knowledge diffusion: Role of India and China as Southern growth progenitors

Nexus between income inequality and technology capture is explored in a global CGE model to explore the ricochet effect of technology transmission and its capture. In particular, the model shows that exogenous technology shock from developed North, vehicled via trade, transmits to developing Souths and induces productivity growth. This spillover capture, aided by human capital based adoptive capability, better governance and institution, causes increase in income and welfare and subsequently, leads to decline in income inequality. Dynamism of Southern Engines of Growth – India and China – caused them to emerge as ‘core’ South. Thus, triangular innovation diffusion between dynamic and peripheral South is also simulated to show how the backward or peripheral South could catch up via South–South Cooperation in a declining North–South trends in trade. This accrual of benefits could lead to sustained productivity growth and consequential relief of incidence of poverty in low-income countries.