EVIDENCE ON FEATURES OF A DSGE BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL FROM BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING*

The empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is evaluated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long‐run responses, a structural break of unknown date, and a range of lags and deterministic processes. We find support for a number of features implied by the economic model, and the evidence suggests a break in the entire model structure around 1984, after which technology shocks appear to account for all stochastic trends. Business cycle volatility seems more due to investment‐specific technology shocks than neutral technology shocks.     

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY REORGANIZATIONS: ESTIMATES FROM A BARGAINING MODEL*

This article uses a novel approach to measure the unobserved liquidation value of a firm that relies on the information contained in the allocations that are agreed upon in Chapter 11 negotiations. I estimate a game theoretic model that captures the influence of liquidation value on the equilibrium allocations using a newly collected data set. I find that the liquidation values are higher when the industry conditions are more favorable, and the real interest rates are higher. I use the estimated model to conduct a counterfactual experiment to quantitatively assess the impact of a mandatory liquidation on the equilibrium allocations.     

FISCAL MULTIPLIERS DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: FISCAL AND MONETARY INTERACTION MATTERS

This study investigates the fiscal multipliers of 21 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries during the global financial crisis using panel vector auto regression methodology. Our findings suggest that the 1‐year fiscal multiplier was greater than 1 during the crisis, whereas it was less than 1 before the crisis because of different fiscal and monetary interactions. The combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis boosted gross domestic product more effectively through internal and external transmissions: investment crowding‐out was limited, and net exports were spurred by the policy interaction. In addition, our results are robust to various specifications. (JEL E61, E63, E65)     

中国财政赤字的规模与作用

在改革开放的20年里,我国的财政赤字成为低通货膨胀的发展手段。目前的财政赤字规模并不可怕,需要关注的可能是财政状况的恶化趋势。而当前是否要竭尽全力改善财政状况,最终取决于决策者是更关心财政状况,还是更关心国民经济运行状况。     

农地城市流转规模决策模型

在综述前人研究的基础上,对农地城市流转规模的问题进行了理论探讨.在此基础上构建政府多目标条件下农地城市流转规模决策模型,并对其最优规模进行求解.最后就农地作为异质性商品时,利用特征价格模型对决策进行了探讨,研究认为:①农地城市流转决策是一种多目标决策,其效用指标的选取要注重经济因素、社会因素与生态因素的结合;②农地是一种典型的异质性商品,消费者消费农地的效用的高低往往取决于农地包含的特征种类和数量的多少.因此,决策者需要考虑其异质性;③对交错区的农地采取一味地保护,或者采取任由其不断发展的政策都是不利于经济的发展的,政府进行农地城市流转规模决策时,必须采取积极的措施协调城市化发展与区域性粮食安全之间的关系.     

基于灰色系统模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以常德市鼎城区为例

土地利用总体规划是区域性的综合规划,为地方性的经济发展提供科学和法律依据.建设用地的有效供给是地方经济发展基础,建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划编制的核心,也是土地利用管理的依据.为了切实搞好常德市鼎城区的土地利用总体规划,使之更具有前瞻性、可操作性,必须切合实际地搞好建设用地需求规模和布局的预测.采用灰色系统模型,通过灰色关联度分析,建设用地发展与GDP、总人口、市镇人口、社会固定资产投资、人均GDP、第二产业产值、第三产业产值密切相关.基于这些因子,采用灰色系统模型法、建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,进行了2010年和2020年的城乡建设用地规模的预测.GM(1,1)模型可以进行长期预测,但预测仅反映一种趋势,综合考虑驱动因素的灰色线性组合模型更具有预测的可靠性.利用GM(1,1)模型和线性模型组合,进行城乡建设用地规模预测,可为土地利用总体规划提供可靠的保证.     

FISCAL POLICY AND OPTIMAL TAXATION: EVIDENCE FROM A TAX SMOOTHING EXERCISE

Testing the tax smoothing hypothesis for the EU‐15, we hypothesise that the introduction of the 3%‐deficit rule of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 may have inhibited tax smoothing as European Union (EU)‐member states are no longer capable of letting the deficit grow as much as implied by expected decreases in government expenditure. Our results show that for some countries this fiscal rule may have indeed changed the validity of the tax smoothing hypothesis, thus implying that EU accession has caused welfare losses.     

养老保险个人账户调整对我国财政体系代际平衡状况的影响

养老保险体系对财政政策的代际平衡状况有重要影响,我国养老保险个人账户规模缩小至8%可以使代际不平衡状况下降10个百分点,而降低养老基金保值率对改善代际不平衡状况的作用有限。因此我们在缩小个人账户规模后,应该考虑尽快将个人账户“做实”,通过提高养老基金保值率来激励单位和个人参加养老保险。     

LSM: A DSGE model for Luxembourg

Luxembourg is a small open economy with a set of particular features, including rather limited competition in the domestic goods market, strong union power, and a segmented labor market for resident and non-resident workers. In this paper we develop a medium scale DSGE model that captures these features, calibrate it to mimic the actual behavior of the key macroeconomic aggregates, and use it to conduct policy experiments aimed at relaxing some of the existing rigidities in the goods and labor market.     

FROM BUDGETARY FORECASTS TO EX POST FISCAL DATA: EXPLORING THE EVOLUTION OF FISCAL FORECAST ERRORS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

This paper splits the ex post error in the budget balance, defined as the final budget figure minus the planned figure, into implementation and revision errors, and investigates the determinants of these errors. The implementation error is the difference between the nowcast, published toward the end of the year of budget implementation, and the planned budget, while the revision error is the difference between the final figure and the nowcast. The split takes account of differences in reporting incentives at the different budgeting stages. The predictive content of fiscal plans is important, because it determines the reliability of the budget, while that of the nowcasts is important also because these figures are an input for the next budget and may contain important signals about the fiscal stance. Implementation and revision errors may arise for political and strategic reasons. Our results suggest that an improvement in the quality of institutions, whether measured by the tightness of national fiscal rules, the medium‐term budgetary framework or budgetary transparency, increases the quality of budgetary reporting at both the planning and the nowcast stage. This supports the recently adopted requirements on national fiscal frameworks. It also strengthens the case for a close monitoring by the European Commission of national budgeting. (JEL E6, H6)     

FISCAL FEDERALISM, STATE LOBBYING AND DISCRETIONARY FINANCE: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

In the quasi-federal democratic polity that India has, lobbying for central funds by the states is often done in a subliminal fashion. Hence, it becomes difficult to get an account of how much lobbying has been done to a particular end. Our paper attempts at constructing certain political proxy variables to quantify the extent of such lobbying in India. We quantify lobbying through the ministerial representation in the council of ministers. We also use several time and state dummies to account for the constituent states' political alignment with the center as well as the coalition and the reform period breaks in the Indian system. Taking panel data that cover 29 years and 14 major states we show that our constructed variables do explain disparity in central fiscal disbursements under the non-formulaic "discretionary" head in a robust way. Our findings remain true even after we take into account the impact of endogeneity of net state income on the transfers. Additionally, our exercise brings to the fore the fact that the coalition governments and economic reform measures impact upon state lobbying at the center in a significant manner.     

FISCAL POLICY AND AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION: NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we estimate the marginal rate of substitution between aggregate per-capita consumption and per-capita government expenditure on goods and services using US quarterly data over the period 1953 to 1993. This estimate is an important input to any attempt to assess the overall effectiveness of fiscal policy since it directly affects the size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Other recent consumption studies which incorporate the effects of government expenditure have failed to establish a stable estimate of the marginal rate of substitution. We argue that this failure results from imposing the unrealistic assumption that this parameter is constant. In contrast, we allow the marginal rate of substitution to depend on both the level and composition of government spending.     

我国积极财政政策拉动消费需求的实施效果

1998年以来,为了应对严峻的国内外经济形势,我国实行了以国债投资为主体的积极财政政策,产生了明显的效果,应进一步调整和完善该项政策,使其作用得到充分有效发挥。     

SCALE ECONOMIES AND POLICE DEPARTMENT CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE FROM LOS ANGELES

This paper tests for scale economies for police departments operating in Los Angeles County. Intergovernmental sharing in providing police services prevails within the county, suggesting that scale economies exist in producing this public good. Empirical analysis here rejects the hypothesis that police output is produced under increasing returns, which would be an efficiency explanation for the large degree of consolidation found within the county.