Education,Innovation and Long‐Run Growth

We extend a second‐generation Schumpeterian growth model to incorporate human capital accumulation to clarify the general equilibrium effects of subsidy policies on human capital accumulation and R&D activities in a unified framework. Despite the conventional argument that subsidies always stimulate these growth‐promoting activities, we find that subsidies asymmetrically affect human capital accumulation and R&D activities. Our theoretical results suggest that research using standard models of human capital might find false negative relationships between education subsidies and economic growth.     

Effects of a blocking patent on R&D with endogenous survival activities

This study analyzes the effect of strengthening patent protection for innovation and economic growth by introducing a blocking patent into the endogenous growth model developed by Furukawa (Econ Lett 121(1):26–29, 2013a), which features survival activity of patent holders in the R&D sector with a variety-expansion model. Results show that strengthening patent protection can raise the economic growth rate and social welfare through an endogenous survival investment. Additionally, this study examines the effects of increasing subsidies for R&D. We find that increasing R&D subsidy rate can negatively affect economic growth and social welfare because of the investment for survival activities. This result shows the novel role of a blocking patent in determining innovation effects of R&D subsidies. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of patent breadth which is another patent instrument in this model on innovation and economic growth. Results show that the growth and welfare effects of the profit-division rule and the subsidy rate for R&D may vary with the size of patent breadth.     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY MEETS ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY: GLOBALIZATION, INEQUALITY, AND INNOVATION STRATEGIES

I perform a Schumpeterian analysis of a world economy in which heterogenous individuals and firms endogenously respond to stronger global competition by undertaking more education and by spending more in research and development (R&D). A more globalized economy is predicted to exacerbate wage inequality, but to spur human capital accumulation within each country. However, despite its positive level effects on consumption and output, globalization can reduce each country's per-capita output growth rate. R&D specialization allows each country to positively invest in manufacturing, variety proliferation R&D, and product quality upgrading R&D. The existence of such an R&D specialization – jointly with domestic size – allows us to explain some different economic performance about inequality and R&D effort of developed regions, such as the US and the EU countries.     

Government Expenditure Financing in a Two‐Sector Cash‐In‐Advance Model of Endogenous Growth

We show that an expansion in the government size could be desirable from the viewpoint of the economy's long‐run growth, wherein factor intensity between the sectors, the mode of public spending financing, and the form of the cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraint are crucial. We also show that when real balances are required only for consumption purchases, money financing is equivalent to consumption tax financing, but is not equivalent to income tax financing. If both consumption and gross investment are liquidity‐constrained, then the three financing methods are mutually not equivalent. The optimal financing scheme has the following features: (1) when the CIA constraint applies only to consumption purchases, any combination of the money growth rate and the consumption tax rate that satisfies the government budget constraint constitutes an optimal financing mix; (2) when the CIA constraint applies to both consumption and investment purchases, consumption tax financing only is optimal.     

Fiscal and monetary effects on environmental quality,growth, and welfare

This paper examines the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on economic growth, inflation, environmental quality, and welfare. To this end, the horizontal-R&D growth model is extended to include pollution generated in the intermediate-goods production, and the demand for money through cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints on intermediate-goods production and R&D investment. Fiscal policy embodied in the taxation of pollution decreases output, profits, inflation, and wages in the intermediate-goods sector, reallocating labor to R&D that is the engine of economic growth. As it reduces pollution, it increases welfare if there are strong preferences for a clean environment. In turn, since the inflation rate is an increasing function of the nominal interest rate, the effects of changes in this monetary policy variable extend to the effects of changes in the inflation rate. An increase in the nominal interest rate penalizes employment, wages and output in the R&D sector relatively more if the respective CIA constraint is more demanding and thus economic growth decreases. As it also reduces pollution since decreases intermediate-goods production, it increases welfare if the preferences for a clean environment are strong enough.     

R&D, innovation, and technological progress: a test of the Schumpeterian framework without scale effects

Abstract.  I use U.S. manufacturing industry data to estimate a system of three equations implied by a model of R&D‐induced growth in steady state. These equations relate R&D intensity to patenting, patenting to technological progress, and technological progress to economic growth. In each case, I find evidence of positive impact. Thus, I reject the null hypothesis that growth is not induced by R&D in favour of the Schumpeterian endogenous growth framework without scale effects. I also find strong support for technological spillovers from aggregate research intensity to industry‐level innovation success. JEL Classification: O40, O30     

资本市场开放、融资约束与研发投入——基于不同经济周期的视角

随着对外开放步入高水平深化阶段，经济增长迈入高质量发展周期，将会给作为企业创新力核心的研发投入带来何种变化，是亟待解决的问题。以A股上市公司2011—2020年数据为样本，借助“沪深港通”政策的落地，采用交错双重差分模型分析资本市场开放宏观政策对企业研发投入的影响机理，并探究不同经济周期下融资约束的中介作用。研究发现，资本市场开放促进企业研发投入增加；资本市场开放能通过缓解融资约束促进企业增加研发投入；在经济萧条期，资本市场开放通过缓解融资约束显著促进研发投入的增加，融资约束中介效应得到证实；在经济繁荣时期，中介效应不显著；资本市场开放促进了研发投入的逆周期表现。进一步研究发现，在信息环境较差和内外部治理较差的企业中，资本市场开放对研发投入的促进作用更显著。研究结果基于企业会增加研发投入的角度为资本市场开放的正向经济后果提供了微观层面的经验证据，在一定程度证明了资本市场开放对于推动产业新技术变革、促进实体经济进步、转变经济发展方式及实现高质量发展的重要意义。     

Rationality,rules of thumb,and R&D

A model of Schumpeterian growth is compared under rational expectations (RE) and under a simple rule of thumb (RT) in which firms invest a constant fraction of their current profits in R&D. The analysis generates a scenario in which the RE and RT equilibria are observationally equivalent, yet the interpretations of the two equilibria differ in ways which are critical for the appropriate design of technology policy. The RE model dictates that the largest government transfers for R&D support should be given to high-technology (high-R&D) firms. The observationally equivalent RT model indicates that low-R&D firms should receive the largest incentives to stimulate R&D. The paper also provides some new analytical results on the limiting distribution of firm size, and these may be of independent interest.     

A contribution to the theory and empirics of Schumpeterian growth with worldwide interactions

This paper proposes an integrated theoretical and methodological framework characterized by technological interactions to explain growth processes from a Schumpeterian perspective. Global interdependence implied by international R&D spillovers needs to be taken into account in both the theoretical and empirical models. For this task, spatial econometrics is the appropriate tool. The econometric model we propose includes the neoclassical growth model as a particular case. We can therefore explicitly test the role of R&D investment in the long-run growth process against the Solow growth model. Finally, the properties of our spatial econometric specification allow the explicit evaluation of the impact of home and foreign R&D spillovers.     

Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non‐uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long‐run growth rate of per‐capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi‐endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.     

The co‐development of economies and institutions

In this study, we model the Schumpeterian growth theory in a simple discrete‐time framework in which both economies and institutions need to be developed. Individuals need to borrow from an imperfect financial market to develop an economy. A government can adopt two potential strategies for improving the borrowing capacity of individuals and, as a result, enhancing economic performance: ‘the rule of law’ and ‘industrial policies’. We interpret market‐oriented reform in transition economies as a shift from ‘industrial policies’, exemplified at the extreme by the traditional planned economy, to ‘the rule of law’. The presented model shows that both strategies could be the best choice at different stages of development.     

On the Growth and Welfare Effects of Defense R&D

In the United States, defense R&D share of GDP has decreased significantly since 1960. To analyze the implications on growth and welfare, we develop an R&D‐based growth model that features the commonly discussed crowding‐out and spillover effects of defense R&D on civilian R&D. The model also captures the effects of defense technology on (a) national security resembling consumption‐type public goods and (b) aggregate productivity via the spin‐off effect resembling productive public goods. In this framework, economic growth is driven by market‐based civilian R&D as in standard R&D‐based growth models and government‐financed public goods (i.e., defense R&D) as in Barro (1990). We find that defense R&D has an inverted‐U effect on growth, and the growth‐maximizing level of defense R&D is increasing in the spillover and spin‐off effects. As for the welfare‐maximizing level of defense R&D, it is increasing in the security‐enhancing effect of defense technology, and there exists a critical degree of this security‐enhancing effect below (above) which the welfare‐maximizing level is below (above) the growth‐maximizing level.     

Schumpeterian and semi‐endogenous productivity growth explanations

This paper examines the nature and sources of productivity growth in South African manufacturing sectors, from an international comparative perspective. On panel data estimations, we find that the evidence tends to support Schumpeterian explanations of productivity growth for a panel of countries including both developed and developing countries, and a panel of South African manufacturing sectors. By contrast, semi‐endogenous productivity growth is supported for a panel of OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) manufacturing sectors. However, we also report evidence that suggests that sectors are not homogeneous. For this reason, time series evidence may be more reliable than panel data. Time series evidence for South Africa suggests that prospects for the sustained productivity growth associated with Schumpeterian innovation processes, is restricted to a narrow set of sectors. For the OECD manufacturing sectors, both semi‐endogenous and Schumpeterian growth finds support. Schumpeterian growth is present for a larger number of sectors than for South Africa, and is most prevalent in the North American economies.     

The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model

In this paper, following Blanchard and Fischer (1989), I investigate how the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic—the increase in the probability of death—may affect growth and welfare in a scale-invariant R&D-based Schumpeterian model. Without money, the increase in the probability of death has no effect on long-run growth and a negative effect on welfare. By contrast, when money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption, the increase in the probability of death decreases long-run growth and welfare under elastic labor supply. Calibration shows that the quantitative effect of an increase in the probability of death on welfare is much larger compared to that on growth.     

Non‐Scale Endogenous Growth with R&D and Human Capital

This paper examines the conditions under which increasing knowledge, encapsulated in ideas for new technology through R&D and embodied in human capital through education, sustains economic growth. A general model is developed where, consistent with recent literature, growth is non‐scale (not increasing in population size) and endogenous (generated by factors within R&D and education). Recent models feature the counterfactual assumption of constant returns to existing knowledge and restrict the substitutability of inputs within R&D and education. We find that non‐scale endogenous growth is possible under less stringent conditions. The findings reconcile sustained economic growth with evidence of diminishing marginal returns in education and R&D, which suggests an ambiguous role for R&D policy.     

Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Investment‐specific Technological Change

This paper examines a dynamically optimal subsidy policy in a continuous‐time version of the endogenous growth model developed by Krusell (Krusell, P. (1998) “Investment‐Specific R&D and the Decline in the Relative Price of Capital”, Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 131–141), in which investment‐specific technological progress occurs endogenously because of R&D performed by monopolistic firms. It is demonstrated that a combination of the time‐invariant subsidy for investment and the time‐variant subsidy for R&D enables the market equilibrium to replicate the socially optimal allocation.     

R&D financing and growth

ABSTRACT

R&D investment are an important engine of growth and development. Yet economists have often claimed underinvestment, based on the consideration that these projects are more costly to finance, especially, due to the asymmetric information between inside and outside investors. Coherently, a recent empirical evidence has shown that firms intensively active in R&D are less leveraged and rely more heavily on internal finance. Motivated by this evidence, we study the effects of asymmetric information and financial frictions within a GE economy of Schumpeterian tradition. The model and equilibrium concept are rich enough to represent investment and innovation decisions, technology adoption/diffusion through patent licensing and, most importantly, firms' financial decisions. In this representation, R&D-intensive firms might effectively rely more on internal sources and equity than on debt financing, relative to what would happen in frictionless markets. Further, financial decisions affect aggregate investment and income dynamics.     

ENDOGENOUS DEBT‐EQUITY RATIO AND BALANCE‐SHEET CHANNEL: IMPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH AND WELFARE

This paper endogenizes the debt‐equity ratio and embodies financial leverage in a cash‐in‐advance model of endogenous growth. Our analysis finds that the debt‐equity ratio is positively related to the balanced‐growth rate, since it serves as a ‘financial accelerator’ to stimulate investment projects. Compared to previous studies, this positive relationship gives rise to an additional balance‐sheet effect, which substantially affects the macroeconomic consequences of monetary and taxation policies. Due to the existence of the balance‐sheet effect, we also find that the Friedman rule is not necessarily optimal.     

Optimal research and development and the cost of business cycles

While research and development (R&D) investment has been procyclical in the post-war period, recent literature suggests that the optimal path for R&D is countercyclical, and that the economy would be better off by subsidizing R&D in recessions. The objective of this paper is to analyze the welfare effects of distortions in the intertemporal allocation of R&D resources and to compare diverse policy interventions so as to improve social welfare. To this end, we introduce a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Schumpeterian endogenous growth that is capable of explaining the observed procyclicality of R&D. Our results show that the cost of business cycles is lower in the decentralized economy with procyclical R&D than in the efficient allocation with countercyclical R&D. This is because the suboptimal propagation of shocks in the decentralized equilibrium offsets some of the existing steady-state distortions. In this second-best context, countercyclical R&D subsidies have no positive effect on welfare. In contrast, fiscal policies aimed at restoring the optimal steady-state produce large welfare gains.     

R&D and Absorptive Capacity: Theory and Empirical Evidence*

This paper presents a single unified framework that integrates the theoretical literature on Schumpeterian endogenous growth and major strands of the empirical literature on R&D, productivity growth and productivity convergence. Starting from a structural model of endogenous growth following Aghion and Howitt (1992, 1998) , we provide microeconomic foundations for the reduced‐form equations for total factor productivity (TFP) growth frequently estimated empirically using industry‐level data. R&D affects both innovation and the assimilation of others’ discoveries (“absorptive capacity”). Long‐run cross‐country differences in productivity emerge endogenously, and the analysis implies that many existing studies underestimate R&D's social rate of return by neglecting absorptive capacity.