BAYESIAN PERSUASION WITH PRIVATE EXPERIMENTATION

This article studies a situation in which a sender tries to persuade a receiver by providing hard evidence that is generated by sequential private experimentation where the sender can design the properties of each experiment contingent on the experimentation history. The sender can selectively reveal as many outcomes as desired. We determine the set of equilibria that are not Pareto‐dominated. In each of these equilibria under private experimentation, the persuasion probability is lower and the receiver obtains access to higher quality information than under public experimentation. The decision quality improves in the sender's stakes.     

EFFECTIVE RATES OF ASSISTANCE FOR NORWEGIAN INDUSTRIES

We measure the effective assistance to 24 Norwegian private industries in 1989 and 1991 from government budgetary subsidies, indirect commodity taxes, import protection through nominal tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and electricity market distortions. The assistance effects are measured by the change in the net-of-tax value added price due to a removal of the policy measures considered. Most industries were effectively assisted, but the effective assistance differs widely between industries, indicating the overall distortive effect on the industry structure. Agriculture, Food Processing and Manufacture of Beverages and Tobacco stand out as the most assisted industries. Budgetary subsidies and non-tariff barriers had the strongest effective assistance effect.     

GEOGRAPHICAL SPACE AND EFFECTIVE DEMAND UNDER STAGNATION

This paper investigates the adjustment mechanism between geographical space and effective demand under stagnation by constructing a spatial model with stagnation included. The model takes the idea of stagnation in Ono (2001) and combines it with the spatial model of Perera-Tallo (2003) . The spatial model features local monopolists that import intermediate goods from other monopolists at a cost that can be decreased through investment. Using the integrated model, we reach the following conclusion: the wider the geographical space, the lower the effective demand under stagnation. This mechanism is explained as follows. Under stagnation, where demand has reached an upper bound, a decrease in the marginal cost of reaching distant intermediate suppliers reduces employment. The reason is 'love of variety' in production: for given final output, more variety of available intermediate inputs crowds out per-variety demand of intermediates and thus employment. Decreases in employment then lead to a decrease in the rate of time preference through a rise in the deflation rate, and thereby decrease the desire for consumption, consequently cutting effective demand.     

有效就业理论与宏观经济增长悖论

1997年以后,中国出现了经济高速增长,就业压力不减,物价走低的宏观经济增长悖论。奥肯定律失效,宏观经济关系扭曲,产出对就业和物价的影响无法正常传递,是造成两个悖论的宏观原因。有效就业理论认为,企业储备了大量的无效就业人员,有效就业率低,因而奥肯定律失效。释放或充分使用无效就业人员,企业有效就业率的提高带来劳动生产率的上升,企业有了产出扩张的激励。这是两个悖论的微观成因。较低的有效就业率源自于已有就业制度安排下劳动力的企业内部储备。     

债务融资、破产与经营者动力

该文运用一个简单模型分析说明,当股权融资受到限制时,更加严格地执行破产并不一定能解决我国国有企业面临的激励问题,并由此引申出关于我国企业融资与资本市场发展的若干含义.     

GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS AT THE EFFECTIVE LOWER BOUND: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Empirical evidence on the potential impact of central bank policies on government bond yields at the effective lower bound (ELB) is presented for nine economies. We quantify the content of central bank communications and consider international policy spillovers. Yields at the medium‐to‐longer end of the yield curve remain responsive to news for a few years after the ELB is reached. Yields become more sensitive to the content central bank communication at the ELB. Our results provide further evidence that central bank communication is an important element of monetary policy making when the interest rate tool loses efficacy. (JEL E52, E58, G12, F42)     

ARE FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES EFFECTIVE IN DEEPENING THE MALAYSIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM?

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of financial sector policies on development of the financial system in Malaysia over the period 1959–2005. The technique of principal component analysis is used to construct a summary measure of interest rate policies in order to account for the joint influence of various interest rate controls imposed on the Malaysian financial system. The results show that economic development, interest rate controls, and capital liquidity requirements positively affect the level of financial development. However, greater trade openness, higher statutory reserve requirements, and the presence of directed credit programs appear to be harmful for development of the Malaysian financial system. The results provide some support to the argument that some form of financial restraints may help promote financial development. (JEL E44, E58, O16, O53)     

能源工业的股权结构多元化与有效竞争的形成

能源工业的股权及投资主体的多元化状况,直接受制于投融资体制,成为能源工业市场化程度衡量标准之一。分析能源工业股权结构及投资主体多元化状况,有利于认清我国能源工业市场化推进程度,从而为进一步改革能源工业体制、提高能源工业效率提供依据。     

人民币汇率变动对产业结构 影响的实证研究*

汇率作为重要的价格信号,能影响我国参与国际分工的成本,改变我国生产要素的相对价格,引导国内资源的重新配置,并对我国产业结构的调整产生重要影响。本文从三次产业结构调整和不同要素密集度行业结构调整两个角度展开分析,分别研究人民币有效汇率对其影响。其中,从三次产业结构调整的角度,对国家和地区层面进行实证研究,结论表明人民币有效汇率变动对第二产业具有明显的抑制作用,而对第三产业发展具有促进作用,且对经济发达的东部地区的影响明显大于对中西部地区的影响;从资源配置的角度,以劳动力、资本要素在产品市场和要素市场的流动为切入点,对汇率变动影响产业结构变化的机理及其路径进行了深入系统的理论研究,结论表明,人民币有效汇率对资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业具有促进作用,且实际有效汇率的影响大于名义有效汇率的影响。\     

递增阶梯电价的收入再分配效应研究: 嵌入分时电价更有效吗*

本文从理论与实证角度分析了递增阶梯电价为实现收入再分配目的必然伴随着效率损失,进而探讨嵌入分时电价能否改善两难困境。理论模型刻画了递增阶梯电价追求再分配目的所致两类效率成本的特征、结构和类型,以及递增阶梯电价在实现再分配和最小化效率损失间的两难困境。基于杭州市居民用电和家庭收入等微观数据,使用工具变量,通过反事实场景构建和二次近乎理想需求函数（QUAIDS）模型,实证估算了阶梯电价为实现再分配目的而引致的家庭与社会效率成本,本文为系统评估和完善阶梯水价和气价等政策奠定了基础。     

EFFECTIVE DEMAND, OUTWARD INVESTMENT AND THE (THEORY OF THE) TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION: AN EMPRICAL INVESTIGATION

That demand-side deficiencies can provide an inducement for outward investment by transnational corporations has never acquired much currency, despite its long history and the fact that existing theories ofter have implications supportive of it. Arguably a reason for this is that the idea has never been tested empirically. In this paper we provide the first such empirical test. First we critically survey and attempt to synthesize the mainstream microeconomic or supply-side theories of the TNC. Then we examine the case for a demand-side perspective, link this to the supply-side and discuss some existing indirect evidence in support of this perspective. Finally we provide a direct econometric test of the demand-side perspective, which provides clear support for it.