Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.     

Seasonality of hotel demand in the main Spanish provinces: Measurements and decomposition exercises

This paper analyses the seasonal concentration of tourist activity in the main Spanish provinces for the period 1999–2012, taking hotel nights as the indicator of reference. We propose using several standard summary measures in order to evaluate the level, evolution and some decompositions. Our main results can be summarized as follows: first, across the whole country and especially since 2007, there is a growth in seasonality; second, seasonal concentration is greatest in the Balearic Islands and two of the Catalan provinces, and least in Madrid and the Canary Island provinces; third, although the overall patterns typically agree, nevertheless, in some provinces the indexes we deal with show some discrepancies; fourth, the decomposition of the monthly concentration by major markets typically indicates the main role played by the foreign component; finally, the overall evidence does not support the thesis that the domestic market offsets the foreign one.     

Seasonality in New Zealand Winery Visitation

Summary

Seasonality is a major issue in tourism management; however, the implications of seasonality for wine tourism have only received limited attention. Arguably, because of the interaction between seasonal patterns of consumer demand with the inherent seasonality of vineyard work and wine supply means that seasonality issues may be even more problematic for wine tourism than other forms of tourism. The article provides the results of a national study on wine tourism in New Zealand. The article highlights the seasonal nature of visitation and suggests a number of marketing strategies by which some of the effects of seasonality may be overcome in terms of both target markets and the improved management of human resources.     

Seasonality and regional productivity in the Spanish accommodation sector

This study quantifies the impact of peak demand and seasonality on regional productivity in the Spanish accommodation sector. We then identify factors affecting seasonal fluctuations and their relative contributions to regional variations in seasonality. The results show that demand for accommodation in the peak season mainly determines productivity. Thus, improving a region's attractiveness as a tourist destination is most effective for tourism-based regional development. In addition, reducing seasonal variations has a non-negligible impact on productivity. A decomposition analysis reveals that providing climate-independent tourist attractions and attracting business travelers are effective in reducing seasonality.     

Seasonality in tourist flows: Decomposing and testing changes in seasonal concentration

This paper shows that changes in timing and magnitude of seasonality in tourist flows can be measured by decomposing the change in the Gini index, a widely used index of seasonal concentration, into two components. One of them tracks the change in the pattern of seasonal fluctuations and the second captures the change in their magnitude. To assess whether changes in the seasonal pattern and magnitude are significant, a technique for testing hypotheses concerning the two components is developed. We examine changes in the seasonal concentration of tourist arrivals in six tourist destinations in the Veneto Region, one of the most tourism-oriented regions in Europe, from 2006 to 2016. The magnitude of seasonality significantly decreased in some destinations with a diversified tourism product, such as Euganean Spas and Lake Garda. The seasonal pattern remained substantially stable for all destinations except Venice, where a non-negligible shift in the seasonal pattern occurred.     

Yearly,monthly and weekly seasonality of tourism demand: A decomposition analysis

Annual seasonal variations in tourism demand have been a central theme in literature. However, annual seasonality is not the only time-based inequality in tourism flows that has important implications on policy-making decisions at destinations. Within the context of tourism, this study aims to make an in-depth analysis of intra-monthly and intra-weekly tourism demand using the entropy and relative redundancy measures as alternative seasonality indicators to the Gini coefficient in order to provide new tools to manage tourism and propose new action policies at these frequencies. In comparison with the Gini coefficient, the entropy measure is simpler to compute and it is easily decomposable. Using the case study of air arrivals and departures to and from the Balearic Islands, results show the appropriateness of entropy and relative redundancy as seasonal indicators but also as a new information tools for tourism seasonality analysis.     

Seasonality and the contribution of markets: Comparing methods

This paper examines alternative methods of decomposing the seasonality of tourism by market. We undertake an analysis that compares the well-known techniques of Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) and of Shorrocks (1982), and which also uses the Shapley value (1953) in a novel manner. The lack of a single approach makes it important to validate the results using the three different approaches to ensure that the current research provides solid tools for the public and private sectors to apply efficient promotion policies, differentiating products and prices, thus mitigating the effects of seasonality. An application is then undertaken for the case of Catalonia and its four provinces, over the period 2006–2017. Some interesting results emerge: one, the above three techniques provide similar results, thus increasing the robustness of the findings (the method of Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) being especially attractive given its formulation); two, the analysis for this tourist region of Span suggests that market strategies should be focused on—although in different ways—the domestic market, the most important international markets (typically, the French and British), and on those markets which make negative marginal contributions to seasonality (for example, the Italian).     

Tourism,seasonality and social change

This paper examines various aspects of seasonality in recreational travel and tourism. There is an institutionalized and a natural seasonality which both affect tourism. Since tourist seasonality is subject to change and the appraisal of climatic resources for recreation varies from culture to culture, a historical and cross-cultural perspective is necessary. In advanced western societies a swift change of place and season is possible, so that travel agencies are able to offer particular seasonal environments, which could also be understood on a global scale as ‘space-time packages’. Seasonality is usually a problem for a regional tourist service system. An economically-oriented policy stresses a more evenly-spread tourist seasonality. This may also be beneficial for the social environment and ecological base of a tourist region.     

The effect of tourism activity on housing affordability

Although researchers have confirmed the impact of tourism on housing prices in many destinations affected with overtourism, they do not consider housing affordability in relation to the population's income levels. This study explores the relationship between tourism activity and housing affordability, using a sample of Croatian municipalities. Specifically, the study investigates how tourist accommodation, concentration, seasonality and overall vulnerability to tourism influence housing affordability in this emerging tourism-driven European country. The results obtained reveal tourism intensification's deteriorating effect on local residents' abilities to afford housing. The findings indicate a particularly strong tourism seasonality impact, suggesting the presence of common negative externalities, such as employment fluctuations, difficulties in maintaining economic status, and revenue instabilities, in localities prone to seasonal tourism fluctuations.     

Market structure and demand-side substitutability of chained urban hotel segments

This study analyzes how the demand in hotel markets is divided amongst chained hotel segments. Hypotheses regarding consumers’ switching behavior due to changes in income levels and relative prices are tested using data from 25 major urban markets in the United States, encompassing segments ranging from luxury to economy over 43 quarters. The effects of differentiation and market concentration are also investigated in this context. The results suggest that leisure and individual consumers of the low-scale segments may be trading “up” to higher scales when their income increase, but that upscale segments’ corporate consumers are not necessarily trading “down” when Corporate Income fall. In addition, only low-scale segments appear to be substitutes to upscale segments, but the inverse seems not to be true. Also, properties in mid-range segments are found to be the only ones benefiting from a high market concentration, while low-scale properties turn out to be the ones gaining from differentiation through price.     

Herzberg's Two-Factor Theory of work motivation tested empirically on seasonal workers in hospitality and tourism

The objective of this study was to understand work motivation in a sample of seasonal workers at a tourism destination strongly steered by seasonality. Furthermore, it was investigated whether seasonal workers could be divided into worker subgroups on the basis of their work motivation. A structural equations model tested Herzberg's Two-Factor Theory of work motivation empirically. The findings of the study support the Two-Factor Theory of work motivation. Furthermore, results indicated that a migrant community of workers was significantly less concerned about wage level as well as significantly more concerned about meeting new people than resident workers. As a result of these findings, it is suggested that management of businesses in hospitality and tourism need to consider that the seasonal workforce consists of different kinds of worker subgroups, which have different needs to be satisfied.     

Optimal targeting of latent tourism demand segments

This paper identifies for the first time the optimal target markets employing the latent tourism demand expenditure, a novel concept in tourism literature. The study quantifies latent tourism demand between each pair of origin-destination through distinguishing by type of tourism and seasonality. It works with market shares that are estimated via a fractional regression model. Moreover, latent demand is clustered using a market segmentation approach based on a latent class regression. Finally, the optimal target markets are chosen depending on the expected latent tourism expenditure. The result has clear policy implications in terms of which markets are promoted, the optimal channels of communication and the maximum budget for each marketing campaign.     

Decomposing seasonal concentration

The main purpose of this article is to analyze seasonal concentration in tourism demand series in three Spanish Mediterranean destinations by means of the Gini index, decomposing it into inequality between and within seasons. This method is applied to the monthly series of hotel nights, covering the period 1980–2001. The results suggest that the “between” seasons component is the most significant one. In the most mature destination this component is stabilized around 90% of the annual Gini index. In contrast, in the destination with the smallest Gini index, which offers a more diversified tourism product, the between component only rises to the 70% and is still decreasing.     

反季旅游与旅游季节性平衡:研究述评与启示

季节性是旅游产业最重要的特征之一,对旅游业发展具有重要的影响作用。国内外学者对旅游季节性的含义、测度、成因和影响进行了大量研究,并提出了一些缓解旅游季节性的措施和方法。近年来渐渐兴起的反季旅游成为应对旅游季节性的有效措施。深刻理解反季旅游的内涵和特征,努力实现反季旅游常态化,能有效解决旅游季节性造成的产业失衡问题。但从国内外现有文献来看,有关反季旅游的研究成果却十分有限。文章的主要工作是对旅游季节性和反季旅游相关的国内外研究成果进行梳理,并进一步对反季旅游研究和开发的策略进行分析。首先,对气候与旅游方面的研究文献进行了简单回顾;其次,对旅游季节性的国内外研究成果进行了综述;然后,对反季旅游的概念和内涵进行了剖析和界定,并重点对利用反季旅游缓解季节性的研究成果进行了讨论;最后,提出了我国反季旅游开发的对策和建议。     

Seasonality and cycles in tourism demand—redux

Analyzing tourism demand cycles is of strong interest to researchers and forecasters. However, often the preponderance of seasonality encumbers the derivation of cycles that are free of seasonal patterns. Using recent advances in time-series econometrics, we offer a solution. We employ two methods that produce cycles that are robust to seasonal properties of the data; cycles from seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data are virtually indistinguishable.     

Sustainable hotel practices and nationality: The impact on guest satisfaction and guest intention to return

The purpose of this study is to identify how sustainable hotel practices impact the satisfaction and intention to return of hotel guests from different nationalities. Surveys were completed by hotel guests in a popular tourist destination in Mexico. Multiple regression and multinomial logistic regression were applied to test the hypotheses. Results of this study supported the research hypotheses that indicate green practices overall do have a positive relationship on guests’ satisfaction levels and return intentions for Mexicans, Americans and other nationalities. Additionally, it was shown that the relative importance of green practices differs according to the nationality of the guest.     

Are neighbour tourists more sensitive to crowding? The impact of distance on the crowding-out effect in tourism

The concept of the crowding-out effect has been employed in the tourism literature to analyse complex phenomena. However, there is limited insight into the crowding-out effect on tourists by tourists, and even less into the impact of distance on the crowding-out of tourists. This paper examines the relationship between crowding perceptions, tourists' attitudes toward crowding and the consequences of being crowded out. Results from a sample of 729 international tourists in Hong Kong suggest that there is a crowding-out effect on tourists by tourists, but this has only a marginal influence on the majority. The limited crowding-out effect is induced by tourists in general rather than by a single segment. The study also investigates the effect of distance on tourist crowding. The findings reveal a decaying effect of distance on tourists’ crowding perceptions, as neighbour tourists are more susceptible to tourist crowding than tourists from long-haul markets.     

Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea

As international tourism is generally considered a luxury good, models to date have shared an understanding that demand is dependent on discretionary income. However, consumption theories predict that a shift in demand can be induced without changes in actual earnings when expectations for future income are adjusted. This presumes demand for international tourism can be influenced by “wealth effects” from real estate and financial assets. This study tested for the wealth effect on Korean outbound travelers during the 20 years between 1989 and 2009. Korea is a unique place to examine in that Korean households possess housing assets and financial assets that are traded actively in markets. The results of this study favored the possibility of a significant wealth effect from housing on outbound travel demand, but not from financial assets. This may be explained by data sensitivity and the relative importance of financial assets in the Korean people's wealth portfolios. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided along with the findings of the study.     

Asymmetric response of hospitality stock prices to Fed policy actions

This paper examines asymmetric response of hospitality stock prices to Fed monetary policy actions in bull and bear markets. Empirical examinations comprise two critical steps. First, following Kuttner (2001), this study uses the federal funds target rate surprise as an appropriate identification of Fed monetary policy action. Second, by using a Markov-switching model of stock returns, this study explicitly identifies bull and bear markets. Empirical test results based on an event study framework reveal that the responses of airline, gambling, hotel and travel and leisure index returns to monetary policy surprises vary greatly in bear and bull markets. The response of airline, gambling and hotel index returns is substantially greater and more statistically significant in bear than in bull markets. Moreover, the significant impact of monetary policy surprises on airline, gambling and hotel index returns exists only in bear markets. While travel and leisure index return reacts strongly to federal funds target rate surprises in both bear and bull markets, the response of travel and leisure index return is significantly greater in bear markets.