Dilemmas for renewal of futures methodology

Using the so-called Transition Paradox for methodological renewal in futures studies, this article derives one paradox plus six dilemmas. The analysis concludes that methodological renewal should be embedded in the renewal of science. The power of new paradigms depends on how much they serve the long run welfare, stability and existence of the whole world population. Methods — and the breakthrough strategies of the East-Central European countries — are intended not only for outlining visions, but also for creating their technological, institutional and other foundations so that they do not remain merely utopias.     

Metaphors in futures research

This special issue, as might be expected in a networked world, searching for proof that collaboration can work, is edited by four of us. It began with a conversation in 2014 over bland conference food in Helsinki between Osmo Kuusi, Matti Minkkinen and Sohail Inayatullah about the need to highlight metaphors in futures research. We noted that while extensively used, they remain inadequately theorized and lacking mindfulness. Further conversations between Inayatullah and Aleksandra Izgarjan focused the issue. We introduce the special issue with short openings by each one of us, theorizing in a biographical context. These are followed by a summary of the articles, essays, and reports, written by Minkkinen. Our intent is not just to focus on metaphors in futures research, but as well to see futures research as narrative-based itself: as not just describing reality and possibility but creating new worlds, on opening up of shared pathways.     

An agenda for futures research

Is there an identity crisis in futures research ? The author reviews the character of the discipline in the light of its ten years of development and maintains that futures research is empirical, “pre-scientific” and in the category of operations research. The scope for a scientific approach is therefore in forming a coherent methodological body of principles. The author identifies specific tasks in 21 areas, related to data collection, model construction, experimentation, systems analysis, exploratory and normative applications, which seem to him to be particularly in need of such attention.     

The chronospace: A proposed methodology for futures studies

In a recent article in Futures, ¹ eclectics was presented as the first part of a methodology of futures studies. In this second article, time is introduced as a variable and expressed in a diagram entitled the chronospace. Time is treated both as a subjective perception and as a vehicle for causality. The passage of time is perceived as a “scenario”, the content of which must vary with the scenario writer and the medium used. The perceived symmetry between historical and futures studies leads the author to propose the construction of a new science of time—chronosophy —to use with eclectics as an operational methodology for futures studies.     

The eclectics paradigm: A proposed methodology for futures studies

Eclectics is an attempt to model the present in an interdisciplinary fashion. The starting-point is an extended philosophical notion of scarcity, the analysis of which leads to certain basic theorems of choice. These theorems are then applied to quaternary, ie abstract, commodities not usually treated in economics, eg nationalism, achievement, prestige. The approach involves the definition of content from fields such as psychology, sociology, anthropology, political science; and the choice of method from economics (which is seen here as identical to the theory of choice). The advantage of eclectics is that it provides for the rigorous treatment of “non-economic” variables (and therefore humanises the economist) while at the same time exporting choice theory to other social scientists (thereby formalising what have hitherto been imprecise techniques).     

Towards an Integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies

This article considers the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in futures studies. The diversified methodologies that have developed within the systems practice field over the past 25 years are examined for their potential to address concerns about the field's reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism. It is argued, though, that Integral methodology requires more than methodological pluralism: some understanding of the structures of consciousness within which methodologies are conceived and applied is needed. Drawing on the work of Dr. Susanne Cook-Greuter, capacity to understand “system” itself is explored, looking at the way that humans make sense of reality and the stages through which this sense-making develops. It is argued that systems methods and tools used with sufficient practitioner awareness of epistemological biases have an essential role to play in improving the quality of our futures perception and knowledge.     

Time-scales in futures research and forecasting

In this article a study is presented of the ways in which some well-known futurists have considered time-scales in their central works, looking too at a few frequently applied forecasting methodologies. It is found, that there is obviously yet no common view of the extent of the time ahead meant for the terms future and futures and in using the time-horizon specifications, such as short-term and long-term. A survey of how time-scales are taken note of and presented in individual futures research articles is also given.On the basis of the study and survey made, the conclusions list three recommendations, which could be taken into consideration in futures studies.     

Gendered society, gendered futures research

New fields of research, new approaches and branches of science enrich the scientific world-view and scientific toolbox. Below I employ concepts developed for a newcomer to the domain of science, feminist and women's research, in the field of futures research. The distinction between biological sex and sociocultural gender is a useful conceptual device. The sociocultural woman's or man's role is distinguished from being a biological woman or man. With the help of this distinction feminists have shown that, especially in science, there is a dominant male mode of thinking, which they call ‘the male bias'. The male bias in Western futures research gets its extreme expression in the forecasting approach. There are, though, early efforts to develop ‘female futures research' from practical work with women's futures to theoretical and utopian considerations. The female approach is but an embryo and should be developed further. To begin is to understand the dilemma.     

Seeking convergence between history and futures research

The objective of this paper is to analyse how much the traditions of history research (HR) and futures research (FR) have in common and how they could assist each other. First, the role of time is analysed. Second, the path dependence theory, strategic decision-making, knowledge management and visionary management are discussed. Examples of the application of the latter in water and sanitation services and their long-term development are shown. Finally, some argumented views are presented on how the convergence between FR and HR could be improved.The key point of this research is the seeming discontinuity between presents, recent pasts and near futures. The traditions of HR probably make it more difficult to assess the effects of strategic decisions on the recent. If more convergence is wanted, the gap should be filled somehow. On the other hand, the core of FR research seems to concentrate more on strategic and visionary horizons while perhaps neglecting the operational horizon of the near future.     

A new logical model for futures research

The author argues against traditional logic based on unidirectional causality and classical physics because it has led planners and policy makers to believe that universality and homogeneity are desirable goals for society. Biological and social processes have been shown to thrive on complexity and heterogeneity and this approach to futures research should be developed further.     

Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives

This paper focuses on the cyclical and iterative processes of action research and their usefulness in enabling participants in futures work to expand their images of futures. The author has been developing a participatory method of scenario development, based on action research, using cycles within cycles, thus allowing multiple opportunities for reflection and reperception. Because people can find it difficult to perceive their potential futures, to examine possibilities from different angles can clarify problems and help participants develop their reactions to various futures. This paper presents a case study of the new method, working through a series of cycles with a credit union, arguing that a cycles-within-cycles-within-cycles process has the potential to help make explicit the concealed and subconscious forces affecting the future of the participants' social entity.     

Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

The problem of values in futures research

Futures research results in one contemporary set of values being elevated above others, and then being imposed upon the future. The imposition comes in the form of plans, which are certain not to harmonise perfectly with the future values, since values fluctuate in time. A three-point approach is proposed for reducing the discrepancy between futurists' values, as expressed in plans, and the values to be found among the eventual subjects of plans.     

A systemic evaluation framework for futures research

Evaluation of futures studies is a topic that has frequently aroused discussion. Futures studies often deal with great societal or strategic business issues, and thus the validity and reliability of the results is of great interest to stakeholders. Existing literature contains discussions of such important issues as ethics of futures studies, the nature of knowledge about the future, and futures methodology, which together contribute to the quality, validity and credibility of futures studies, but discussion on the evaluation of futures studies is more scant.Thus, the main research question that guides our study is: “how should we evaluate futures studies to ensure the reliability and credibility of the results?” We answer the question by deriving a systemic framework for evaluation following the input-process-output schema to ensure that the whole chain from the data to reporting and implementation contributes to the quality and impact of the study.The main contribution is the systemic evaluation framework. The framework will contribute to the evaluation of existing and ongoing studies by offering guidelines for evaluation, and as a net effect, we propose, it will increase the impact of futures studies by making the practices more transparent and thus generating more confidence in the results.     

The dynamics of volunteer participation in futures research

This article is based on the author's professional experience of using volunteers in a futures research capacity. It focuses on the social, psychological and methodological dynamics of volunteer participation in futures research.     

Applied futures research in France : Some critical views

Professor Cazes critically examines the futures studies conducted in France as part of the VIth Plan (1971–1975). He identifies three classes of research—vertical, horizontal and synthetic— and analyses the strengths and weaknesses of each as they relate to policy planning.