How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus,Kazakhstan and Russia

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the early impact of the formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and associated changes in import schedules on the structure of imports. Relying on an original data-set of statutory tariffs we find that trade creation effects were significant only in trade between Russia and third countries, but that there was some trade destruction, with a significant negative impact on imports from China to Kazakhstan and Russia, and on imports from the EU to Belarus. However, the magnitude of this effect is relatively small, suggesting that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se are limited at best.     

Entrepreneurs and the Ordering of Institutional Reform: Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Russia and Ukraine Compared

We use survey data to examine new firms in Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Russia and Ukraine. By measures of job growth, security of property, and market development, our countries fall into two groups: an advanced group including Poland, Romania and Slovakia, with Slovakia falling somewhat behind the other two; and a backward group of Russia and Ukraine. Macroeconomic stability is not sufficient for private-sector growth. A lack of bank finance does not seem to prevent private-sector growth. More inhibiting than inadequate finance are insecure property rights.     

Institutional Matrices Theory,or X- and Y-Theory: A Response to F. Gregory Hayden

This article draws attention to issues about the institutional matrices theory (IMT) as perceived by and raised in the article by F. Gregory Hayden. To clarify the “controversial” points, I structure my response narrative along two lines. First, I present the prehistory of IMT, or X- and Y- theory, including earlier work by scientists related to the concept of institutional matrix. I connect the development of the actual IMT with the period of “perestroika” and the associated market experiments and reforms in Russia and Eastern European countries. One could see that the effects of market reforms in Russia were different in comparison with other countries in economic transition. I show that the institutional approach was accepted as more relevant to understanding the unexpected results in Russian society. I present IMT as a development of the ideas of Karl Polanyi and Douglas North to answer the challenges of explaining the real social and economic processes in Russia, as well as its wider application to a broader range of economic and social situations in different countries. Second, I then present the main IMT theses, giving special attention to the issues as perceived and raised by Hayden. In conclusion, I suggest the possibility of a joint project that combines IMT consideration and the social fabric matrix (SFM) concept of F. Gregory Hayden.     

A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)

The paper describes an inter-country model developed on the New Keynesian Phillips curve principle for the economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Technically the modelling idea has been grounded within the concept of the infinite dimensional vector autoregressive models by Chudik and Pesaran [Chudik A., Pesara M.H., 2007. Infinite-dimensional VAR's and factor models. IZA; DP No. 3206]. The main developments are such that the model is 1) interdependent rather than vector autoregressive, 2) estimated by the generalised method of moments and 3) forward-looking. The primary linkage of the country models is provided through the real effective exchange rates of particular countries, while the secondary linkages are through the Chudik and Pesaran cross-sectional augmentations. A series of Monte Carlo experiments confirms that the small cross-dimension of the model and a possible dominance of one country in the panel (Russia) should not distort the results in a significant way. A series of stochastic simulation experiments made with and without the assumption of observational equivalence principle shows a possible spread of the Dutch Disease from Russia to other countries in the model.     

美国通过国际合作实现国际空间站运行管理

空间探索既复杂艰巨又耗资甚大,因此,世界各国无论从技术上还是资金上都难以独自开展,中国概莫能外。当前,国际空间站运行形成了以美国主导,各国"精诚合作"的管理模式。美国作为国际空间站的发起国,通过与俄罗斯等成员国的密切协作,实现了对国际空间站运行的维护和有效管理。国际合作成为各国发展航天事业、获取空间资源、提升技术能力的必经之路。通过对国际空间站合作管理模式尤其是美国国家航空航天局在其中所起的作用和担负的职责进行分析和研究,期望为提高我国航天国际合作项目的管理水平提供借鉴和参考。     

Soaring dragons,roaring tigers,growling bears

We perform a comparative analysis of regional growth and convergence in China, Russia and India over the period 1993–2003 by means of non‐parametric methods and kernel density estimates. Our results indicate that wealthy regions were largely responsible for the rapid growth in all three countries. For China and India, capital dissipation was identified as the major determinant of regional growth. In Russia, capital deepening impeded positive changes in labour productivity, leaving technological change as the only source of regional growth. Furthermore, we find that the increasing regional income inequality in all three countries was driven by technological change which more than offset the convergence resulting from capital deepening in China and India.     

What keeps pensioners at work in Russia? Evidence from Household Panel Data

The proportion of working pensioners in Russia is high relative to what is usually observed in several Eastern and Western European countries. In this paper, we present an analysis of the determinants of pensioner employment, using panel data from the on-going Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for the period 1994-99. Given the sharp deterioration in the safety net in recent years, a particular attempt is made to assess the role of inadequate pension benefits, along with other individual, household, and local labour market characteristics, in driving up the employment rate of older people during transition. Both the probability of holding a job and the number of hours worked are modeled. The microeconometric analysis confirms the role that family income and access to alternative coping mechanisms such as subsistence farming play in pensioner employment for women, but also stresses for both men and women the importance of age, education, and health status. Finally, the results show a low sensitivity of pensioner employment to pension arrears and pension benefits, indicating that even the full payment of benefits may be too low to significantly affect the decision to remain in employment.
JEL classification: C33, H55, J14, J21, P36.     

Non‐wage benefits,costs of turnover and labour attachment

Like firms in established market economies, many Russian firms provide non‐wage benefits to their workers, such as housing, medical care or day care. This article explains the provision of benefits as a strategic choice for firms in the presence of labour and service market imperfections. Analysing unique survey data for 404 industrial establishments from 40 Russian regions, the authors provide strong evidence that non‐wage benefits are used by firms to attach workers and thereby reduce the costs of labour turnover in the face of tight labour markets. It is also shown that this attachment strategy works due to imperfections in the regional markets for social services.     

Optimum currency area theory: evidence from post-Soviet countries and implications for Eurasian Economic Union

In this article the theory of optimum currency area is applied to post-Soviet and other selected countries. The study finds smaller exchange rate variability when the economies are closely linked by bilateral trade, are subject to similar shocks both on aggregate and at the industry level, have similar inflation rates, are open and smaller in economic size, and have higher labour migration as proxied by remittance flows. The estimation results also substantiate that the US dollar plays a dominant role as an anchor currency. Next, the study shows that economic fundamentals suggest limited prospects of a common currency for post-Soviet countries, particularly for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It is also found that Moldova, among the post-Soviet countries, better approximates an optimum currency area with Russia. Further, when the government debt-to-GDP ratio is taken into account, only Kazakhstan from the EAEU member countries stands out as having positive prospects for forming a common currency area with Russia.     

Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?

This paper examines the financial contagion in an emerging market setting by investigating the contagion effects of GIPSI (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy), USA, UK and Japan markets on BRIICKS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea and South Africa) stock markets. During Euro-zone crisis period (October 19, 2009–January 31, 2012), the empirical results indicate that among GIPSI countries, Ireland, Italy and Spain appear to be most contagious for BRIICKS markets compared to Greece. The study reports that Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa are strongly hit by the contagion shock during the Eurozone crisis period. However, Indonesia and South Korea report only interdependence and not contagion. From policy perspective, the findings provide useful implications for possible decoupling strategies to insulate the economy from contagious effects. For multilateral organizations like International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the study will provide an important direction in undertaking coordinated rescue measures for the vulnerable as well as contagious countries.     

What determines public education expenditures in Russia?1

Recent studies suggest that the allocation of expenditures in education is important for growth. The state of public education spending in many transition economies highlights the need for an assessment of the nature of education expenditures in these countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the determinants of education expenditures in the Russian Federation. Results from panel data analysis show that revenue and the student‐population ratio have a positive impact on education expenditures while the effect of population density is negative. Three regional variables also show significant impact. The income and price elasticity of public education expenditures are estimated to be 0.57 and ?0.18, respectively, a result comparable to studies from other countries. The results presented here provide insight into how fiscal institutions and the structure of the political process in Russia may affect the degree of resource allocation in the educational sector during the transition process.     

Beyond Dutch disease

How does the deterioration of rule of law in Russia in recent years affect its ability to move away from an export pattern dominated by natural resources? We investigate this question using three datasets for Russia's bilateral trade relations for goods, services and investment at disaggregated level with its partner countries over the world. Our empirical analysis shows that the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia since 2003 has affected the long‐run trade performance of Russia in sophisticated and technology‐intensive manufactured goods, as well as its inward investments with advanced economies. It is precisely this type of trade that Russia should nurture to diversify away from hydrocarbons export dependence. Our statistical analysis also shows that Russia remains to a large extent an outlier within the multilateral trading system. It exports disproportionately less to partner countries which are or had become members of the WTO over our period of analysis. Russia's trade appears to have been negatively affected by the accession of these countries to the WTO. Russia itself finally acceded to the WTO in July 2012 amidst signs of a modest improvement of its rule‐of‐law indicators.     

Promising strategies help employers integrate pharmacy and medical programs--and reap cost, quality advantages

Providing quality pharmacy benefits while managing costs is an escalating challenge for employers. Easy solutions such as higher copays and standard three-tier systems will not provide effective, long-lasting results that include improved clinical outcomes. Employers must concentrate on educating employees on the real cost and value of their pharmacy benefits and they must also take an integrated view of medical and pharmacy benefits.     

Optimal welfare and in-work benefits with search unemployment and observable abilities

This paper explores the optimal interaction between the tax system and social assistance in insuring people against the risks of involuntary unemployment and low ability. To that end, we introduce search unemployment in a model of optimal non-linear income taxation. The relationship between welfare benefits and the optimal level of in-work benefits is U-shaped. This explains why in-work benefits are called for both in countries that grant low welfare benefits and countries that provide high welfare benefits. An earned-income tax credit optimally induces all agents to look for work if job search is cheap and effective, agents are not very risk averse, and the least-skilled agents are relatively productive.     

“一带一路”跨国技术溢出网络空间演化与路径识别——加权复杂网络分析视角

运用加权复杂网络分析法对“一带一路”跨国技术溢出网络的空间格局演化、板块间技术溢出机制及国家间主要技术溢出路径进行分析，结果发现：①网络技术溢出强度提升显著，但呈偏态分布，仅有少数国家存在技术溢出，多数国家扮演着技术吸收者的角色；②网络呈现“核心-边缘”结构，中国、韩国和俄罗斯发挥着“发动机”、“传导”和“桥梁”的功效；③由中国、韩国等5国构成的板块一是“一带一路”跨国技术溢出的核心阵地，由俄罗斯等11国构成的板块二接收来自板块一的技术溢出，并将技术溢出动能向其它板块传递，由其余114国构成的板块三作为净受益者，是技术溢出动能传递路径的最终环节；④技术溢出路径既有空间依赖也有新的路径创造。技术主要被核心国家和发达国家吸收转化，体现出固定区域技术溢出的自我强化和反势能技术流特点。新增路径主要指向欠发达国家，表明越来越多的欠发达国家与核心国家产生技术联系并从中受益。     

“一带一路”跨国技术溢出网络空间演化与路径识别——加权复杂网络分析视角

运用加权复杂网络分析法对“一带一路”跨国技术溢出网络的空间格局演化、板块间技术溢出机制及国家间主要技术溢出路径进行分析，结果发现：①网络技术溢出强度提升显著，但呈偏态分布，仅有少数国家存在技术溢出，多数国家扮演着技术吸收者的角色；②网络呈现“核心-边缘”结构，中国、韩国和俄罗斯发挥着“发动机”、“传导”和“桥梁”的功效；③由中国、韩国等5国构成的板块一是“一带一路”跨国技术溢出的核心阵地，由俄罗斯等11国构成的板块二接收来自板块一的技术溢出，并将技术溢出动能向其它板块传递，由其余114国构成的板块三作为净受益者，是技术溢出动能传递路径的最终环节；④技术溢出路径既有空间依赖也有新的路径创造。技术主要被核心国家和发达国家吸收转化，体现出固定区域技术溢出的自我强化和反势能技术流特点。新增路径主要指向欠发达国家，表明越来越多的欠发达国家与核心国家产生技术联系并从中受益。     

A Structuralist Approach to the Economic Trajectories of Russia and the Countries of East-Central Europe since 1900

I introduce geographical specificity to world-systems concepts of core and periphery to develop a structuralist approach on semiperipheral development in the world-economy. I apply this approach to the historical trajectory of economic growth in Russia and east-central Europe since 1900. I find circumstantial support for Wallerstein's classic assertion that mercantilist semi-withdrawal is a potentially effective development strategy for semiperipheral countries and show that Russia raised its economic output above historical trend levels during the Soviet period. In contrast, east-central Europe fell short of historical trends during the Soviet period, suggesting that Russia's gains may have been made at the expense of its satellite empire. With the end of communism, both Russia and the countries of east-central Europe quickly returned to their long-term historical output levels relative to the core countries of western Europe.     

Education, inequality and transition

I consider evidence on differences in access to education and in learning achievement within the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The situation inherited from the communist period is first summarized: there were some significant disparities with, for example, family background having a strong association with tertiary enrolments, as in Western countries. Analysis of the transition period focuses on differences in access and achievement associated with household income and geographic location. Disparities are not the same across the region; in some countries, such as Russia, there are clear grounds for serious concern, but it is unlikely that any country has cause for complacency.     

An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.     

俄罗斯合成橡胶工业发展现状

随着我国与俄罗斯在合成橡胶领域的合作不断深入,俄罗斯合成橡胶工业发展状况受到业内人士的极大关注。2012年,俄罗斯合成橡胶总产量125.53万t,橡胶出口总量为89.2万t。近几年,俄罗斯IR、BR、SBR、NBR及IIR几大品种合成橡胶产量基本呈平稳态势。俄罗斯下卡姆斯克石化股份公司是世界上最大的IR生产企业;俄罗斯丁二烯资源丰富,可生产几乎所有类型的NBR品种;俄罗斯是我国IIR最主要的进口国之一,其IIR技术也是我国相关单位关注的焦点。期望对俄罗斯合成橡胶工业(包括生产企业、技术特点、产品牌号等)发展现状所做的研究和分析,对我国合成橡胶工业的发展有所借鉴。