Liquidity,assets and business cycles

The objective here is to evaluate the quantitative importance of financial frictions in business cycles. The analysis shows that a negative financial shock can cause aggregate investment, employment and consumption to fall with output. Despite this realistic comovement among macro quantities, a negative financial shock generates an equity price boom as the shock tightens firms׳ financing constraint. This counterfactual response of the equity price is robust to a wide range of variations in how financial frictions are modeled and whether financial shocks affect asset liquidity or firms׳ collateral constraints. Some possible resolutions to this puzzle are discussed.     

Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market’s reaction to monetary policy

This paper examines cyclical variation in the effect of Fed policy on the stock market. We find a much stronger response of stock returns to unexpected changes in the federal funds target rate in recession and in tight credit market conditions. Using firm-level data, we also show that firms that face financial constraints are more affected by monetary shocks in tight credit conditions than the relatively unconstrained firms. Overall, the results are consistent with the credit channel of monetary policy transmission.     

Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach

Current accounts have diverged substantially among euro area countries since the creation of the euro. This divergence has raised concerns about the sustainability of some member countries’ external indebtedness. This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account to analyze the fluctuations in current account balances experienced by euro area countries over the last three decades and to disentangle its determinants. We find that the model is not rejected for six of the ten euro area countries examined (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain), although it tends to underestimate their current account volatility. For these countries, we derive the expectations about future income and relative prices, which, according to the model, underlie their current account balances. Expectations about future growth increased in all Southern European countries at the creation of the euro, but they diverged considerably by 2005. While in Portugal these expectations were below its historical mean by then, in Spain they were at an historical high.     

Capital structure and business cycles

This study investigates the relationship between business cycles and capital structure. Specifically, it extends the work of Lemmon et al. (2008) , by incorporating the effect of four different stages of the business cycle – peak, contraction, trough and expansion – on the relative importance of the unobserved permanent component of the capital structure. Results indicate that business cycles play an important role in explaining the unobserved permanent component of leverage ratios after controlling for firm fixed effects. In particular, the model becomes much stronger in explaining the variation in leverage ratios after accounting for business cycle phases.     

An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds

We compare the market pricing of euro area government bonds and the corresponding Credit Default Swaps (CDSs). In particular, we analyse the “basis” defined as the difference between the premium on the CDS and the credit spread on the underlying bond. Our sample of weekly data covers the period from January 2007 to December 2012 and contains several episodes of sovereign market distress. Overall, we observe a complex relationship between the derivatives market and the underlying cash market characterised by sizable deviations from the no-arbitrage relationship (i.e. basis equal to zero). We show that short-selling frictions explain the persistence of positive basis deviations while funding frictions explain the persistence of negative basis deviations which are observed for countries with weak public finances. Moreover, we show that the “flight-to-quality/liquidity” phenomenon in bond markets is a key driver of the large positive basis of better rated countries.     

A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area

In a panel data framework applied to Portfolio Distance-to-Default series of corporate sectors in the euro area, this paper evaluates systemic and idiosyncratic determinants of default risk and examines how distress is transferred in and between the financial and corporate sectors since the early days of the euro. This approach takes into account observed and unobserved common factors and the presence of different degrees of cross-section dependence in the form of economic proximity. This paper contributes to the financial stability literature with a contingent claims approach to a sector-based analysis with a less dominant macro focus while being compatible with existing stress-testing methodologies in the literature. A disaggregated analysis of the different corporate and financial sectors allows for a more detailed assessment of specificities in terms of risk profile, i.e. heterogeneity of business models, risk exposures and interaction with the rest of the macro environment.     

Current account imbalances and financial integration in the euro area

While the current account of the euro area as a whole has remained almost balanced in the past two decades, several member countries have sizeable deficits or surpluses. In this paper, we interpret these imbalances as indicators of net capital flows among the euro-area countries. We distinguish between balances against the euro zone and the rest of the world and examine these for the EU-15 countries. We find that for euro members the net flows follow differences in per-capita incomes, even before the introduction of the euro. Our results show further that with the introduction of the common currency the elasticity with respect to per-capita incomes of net capital flows within the euro area has increased for the members of the euro zone. This increase can neither be observed for the flows between the euro members and the rest of the world nor for the flows between the countries that stayed outside the monetary union and the euro zone. We interpret this as evidence for increasing financial integration in the euro area. There is also some evidence suggesting that the introduction of the euro has led to some financial diversion.     

Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off

This paper investigates the nexus between monetary stability and financial stability. We examine, in the experience of EMU between 1994 and 2008, first, the response of the term structure of interest rates, share prices, exchange rates, property price inflation and the deposit–loan ratio of the banking sector (our proxies for financial stability) to changes in the consumer price level and ECB policy rate (our proxies for monetary stability); second, whether and to what extent lower inflation has caused share price stability and how ECB policy rate has reacted to inflation. Using a sign-restriction-based VAR approach, we find that there is a pro-cyclical relationship between monetary and financial stability in the long-run. With a positive inflation shock, we find on average a 2% estimated decline in share prices. This suggests that the interest rate instrument used for inflation targeting is conducive to financial stability.     

Monetary aggregates and the business cycle

A monetary aggregate consisting predominantly of zero-maturity deposits, called MZM, tends to systematically lead output in the US business cycle. Such fluctuations are observed both before and after the 1979 monetary policy change. Similar dynamics are obtained in a model with multi-stage production and purchase-size heterogeneity when agents optimally choose their mix of cash, checkable, and time deposits used in transactions. The causality in the model runs from real activity to money, rather than the other way around. Although the monetary base is endogenous, through a Taylor-type rule, the lead in MZM is primarily driven by deposit creation.     

Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?

This paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates, using data spanning 1980–2001. The central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap (the difference between the real money stock and the long-run equilibrium real money stock) contain considerable information regarding future inflation. In contrast, the Eurosystem's money-growth indicator (the difference between nominal money growth and a reference value), the prominent “first pillar” in its monetary strategy, contains little information about future inflation, and no information beyond that contained in the output and real money gaps. The predictive performance of the output gap has improved compared to that in a previous version of this paper, most likely because of better estimation methods.     

Political monetary cycles and a de facto ranking of central bank independence

Political monetary cycles are less likely to occur in countries with independent central banks. Independent central banks can withstand political pressure to stimulate the economy before elections or finance election-related increases in government spending. Based on this logic and supporting evidence, we construct a de facto ranking of central bank independence derived from the extent to which monetary policy varies with the electoral cycle. The ranking avoids well-known problems with existing measures of central bank independence and provides independent information about average inflation and inflation volatility differences across countries.     

The structure and formation of business groups: Evidence from Korean chaebols

We study the evolution of Korean chaebols (business groups) using ownership data. Chaebols grow vertically (as pyramids) when the controlling family uses well-established group firms (“central firms”) to acquire firms with low pledgeable income and high acquisition premiums. Chaebols grow horizontally (through direct ownership) when the family acquires firms with high pledgeable income and low acquisition premiums. Central firms trade at a relative discount, due to shareholders’ anticipation of value-destroying acquisitions. Our evidence is consistent with the selection of firms into different positions in the chaebol and ascribes the underperformance of pyramidal firms to a selection effect rather than tunneling.     

Competitive harm and geographic area disclosure under SFAS 131

Prior research documents considerable diversity in the amount of detail provided by companies in complying with the foreign country disclosure requirements of SFAS 131. We posit that the potential competitive harm associated with country specific disclosures provides an incentive for management to avoid making these disclosures. Specifically, we hypothesize that firms with higher potential competitive harm costs will provide less detailed geographic area disclosures. Our results show that, as expected, firms exposed to greater competitive harm costs provide less detailed country specific revenue disclosures. This study helps to explain the diversity in practice with respect to the level of detail provided by companies in their geographic area disclosures under SFAS 131. In addition, it adds to the literature examining the impact of potential competitive harm on disclosures made by U.S. firms, by extending the line of research to geographic area disclosures.     

Explaining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate through a non-linear threshold model

A linear econometric error correction model (ECM) model is built, based on short interest rates, gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations and inflation differentials, in order to explain the euro/dollar exchange rate dynamics and provide reliable forecasts. This specification performs well. However, the introduction of non-linear threshold dynamics provides a better understanding of ‘abnormal’ features other than deviations from long-run equilibrium levels, allowing for the possibility of asymmetric behaviour. Empirical evidence of this is found in the actual dynamics of the euro. The non-linear specification performs better than the linear model in both in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting, showing that fundamentals hold, working also through some non-linear mechanism, in explaining the euro/dollar dynamics.     

股权结构与上市公司经营业绩关系研究——基于2016年-2018年A股上市公司的数据

企业的股权结构在一定程度上对企业的经营绩效产生影响.文章利用沪深A股上市公司2016年-2018年的面板数据,主要运用回归模型研究了股权集中度和股权制衡度对上市公司经营绩效的影响.研究结果表明股权集中度越高对上市公司经营业绩起到消极作用,股权集中度越分散越有利于公司经营业绩的提升.     

Financing firms with restricted access to financial markets: the use of trade credit and factoring in Belgium

Many authors emphasize the implications of restricted access to financial markets for both small and new firms. The paper reports investigations into the use of alternative means of financing. More specifically, the use of trade credit and factoring are examined. Indeed, following the trade credit management literature both institutional and macro economic restrictions on small business finance can be overcome by ‘larger suppliers’ extending trade credit to their smaller customers. However, the DSO-rate cannot be used to measure the supplier's willingness to invest in trade credit as it depends on both suppliers' and customers' characteristics. The decision to extend trade credit is therefore approximated by the will to control its management and operationalized by the decision to factor or not to factor. The results of our study are twofold. First, factoring is mainly used by small and medium-sized companies. Moreover, when looking at the characteristics of the factor's customers, new companies facing huge capital expenditure programmes and seasonal sales decide to factor. The prejudice about factoring being a last resort means of finance is, however, not supported: companies that decide to use factoring are indeed less profitable, but this is simply due to their high growth and/or capital intensive investment programmes.     

入世后加强我国外资银行监管工作的设想

入世后，外资银行的大量涌入对我国的金融监管提出了更高的要求。那么应如何加强对我国外资银行的监管?本主要从监管工作的三个具体内容一市场准入、业务经营和监管方法及手段一提出了加强外资银行监管工作的设想。     

Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the Euro Area

Central bankers frequently suggest that labor market reform may be beneficial for inflation management. This paper investigates this topic by simulating the effects of reductions in firing costs and unemployment benefits on inflation volatility in the Euro Area, using an estimated New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions. Qualitatively, changes in labor market policies alter the volatility of inflation in response to shocks, by affecting the volatility of the three components of real marginal costs (hiring costs, firing costs and wage costs). Quantitatively, we find, however, that neither policy is likely to have an important effect on inflation volatility, due to the small contribution of hiring and firing costs to inflation dynamics.     

保险公司分支机构全面预算管理存在的问题及对策

全面预算管理对企业加强管控和完成既定目标、防范经营风险起着重要的作用。但调查中发现,部分保险公司分支机构名义上实行全面预算管理,但在实际执行中却得不到落实,存在诸多问题,亟待研究解决。本文主要论述保险公司分支机构在实行全面预算管理中存在的问题,提出解决问题的对策。