Responding to High Commodity Prices

The recent commodity price boom resulted from rising demand in the face of a long period of low supply growth and market distortions. Structural factors are expected to return international commodity prices to relatively high levels as the global economy recovers. The Asian and Pacific economies and the region's poor will be among the most exposed to a rebound in prices. The recent response to high commodity prices can be improved upon. At the global level, the priority for Asian and Pacific governments is to seek a commitment to lessening distortions favouring bio-fuels. At the regional level, there is a need to address the use of trade restrictions on food commodities in Asia, notably rice. At a national level, the long-term neglect of the rural economy warrants correction; and efforts to expand and make social safety nets more 'market friendly' are called for.     

Competition and Prices in USDA Commodity Procurement

We evaluate United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) food procurement auctions. The Department spends nearly $1 billion a year for products for domestic feeding programs, such as the National School Lunch Program, and another $2.5 billion for international food programs. USDA's purchasing relics primarily on auction mechanisms designed to induce “hard” manufacturer price competition. We compare private-sector prices to low bids in 25,000 auctions, and find that typical private-sector prices substantially exceed USDA low bids for comparable products. We also assess the effects of competition on low bids. Low bids fall as the number of bidders increases, and the effects are nonlinear. Additional bidders have a very small effect on prices when there are already five or six bidders, but a stronger effect in markets with only one or two bidders. Even in this highly transparent bidding environment, competition matters.     

Uncertainty and Optimally Uniform Commodity Taxes

This paper examines the implications of uncertainty for the structure of optimal commodity taxes in the presence of a linear income tax. Consumers face uncertain income and commit to consumption of some goods before the resolution of uncertainty and to others after. Preferences are separable between labor and consumption goods. We prove that optimal commodity taxes are (i) uniform within the category of noncommitted goods if their subutility is logarithmic; (ii) uniform within the two categories if both subutilities are logarithmic; and (iii) nonzero across categories, with the tax rate on precommitted goods being lower than the tax rate on noncommitted goods.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

Open Economies Review - A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit...     

基于逐步回归模型的哈尔滨商品房价格分析

以哈尔滨商品房价格为研究对象,分析了影响房价的因素,选取解释变量。应用SPSS统计软件,建立了逐步回归模型,并验证了多因子逐步回归模型在哈尔滨商品房价格预测中的适用性与可靠性,最后提出了政策性建议。     

利率扭曲、房产价格与汇率波动

文章在构建一个包含信贷约束、价格粘性和工资粘性的新开放经济动态随机一般均衡(NOEM-DSGE)模型的基础上,运用贝叶斯方法估计模型中的结构参数,考察抵押率冲击、技术冲击和利率冲击对我国房产价格及实际汇率的动态影响。研究发现,一方面,正向的抵押率冲击使得房价上涨,汇率先贬值而后升值,而负向的利率冲击则使得房价上涨,汇率贬值,另一方面,正向的技术冲击则使得房价上涨和汇率升值;此外,我们进一步构建了MS-VAR模型实证研究了自2005年汇改以来利率、房价和汇率之间的动态关系。实证结果表明:扭曲的利率冲击导致了房价上涨和汇率贬值同时存在,因此,推动利率市场化改革对于实现我国经济长期均衡健康发展十分必要。     

当前新疆农产品供求及价格形势的基本判断与对策建议

当前防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀的任务依然艰巨,其中保证农产品供求平衡和价格平稳是稳定价格总水平的关键点。本文从国际国内宏观背景下分析了今后农产品供求关系将由总量平衡、丰年有余向农产品总量供给长期偏紧、农产品价格持续高位运行的格局转变。同时分析了影响农产品价格上涨的因素,提出了增加农产品供给和稳定农产品价格的对策建议。     

Entry in Foreign Markets under Asymmetric Information and Demand Uncertainty

This paper examines the mode of entry of a multinational firm that has less information about the host market stochastic demand than the local firm. The foreign firm can enter the market either through direct investment or exports. Each entry mode entails different costs and has different informational implications. Entry through foreign direct investment (FDI) is favored by greater variability in demand. Interestingly enough, strategic behavior by the incumbent firm, which deviates from its first period monopoly output, might be aimed at increasing the probability of foreign entry through FDI despite having to compete against an equally informed and efficient entrant; this never happens in a symmetric information environment. Such host firm behavior is aimed at reducing the strategic uncertainty derived from the foreign firm's beliefs. Compared with the symmetric information setting, entry via direct investment may occur in more cases.     

Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies

We assess the transmission of monetary policy and the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the real economy for the five biggest and fastest growing emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Using modern econometric techniques, we show that a monetary policy contraction has a negative effect on output, suggesting that it can lean against unexpected macroeconomic shocks even when the financial markets are not well-developed in this group of countries. We also uncover the importance of commodity price shocks, which lead to a rise in inflation and demand an aggressive behaviour from central banks towards inflation stabilisation.     

Elasticity of Energy Demand and Challenges for China＇s Energy Industry

I. Introduction Since late 2002, China’s energy demand and resources have become one of the most prominent issues in international discussions of energy. In our earlier studies of China’s energy demand as relates to transportation and urbanization (Gates and Yin, 2002; Yin and Gates, 2002), we took more of a long-term view and raised the possibility that even if China’s economy continued to grow rather slowly, which was the prevailing perception at the time, there would still be strong d…     

Analysis on the Forecasting Demand of Front-line Worker

The importance of personnel forecast is pointed out in this paper, and also the author expounds comparative analysis through instances among several methods of personnel forecast.     

我国城镇居民商品需求价格弹性的估计

通过将消费率变量引入到弗里希的需求价格弹性估计方法中,经过数理推导,获得了需求价格弹性估计的方程组。研究发现:就需求自价格弹性而言,商品需求受自身价格的影响程度最大,而受其他商品价格的影响程度较小。随着收入组等级提高,商品需求对其价格变化的反映更为敏感。就需求交叉价格弹性而言,食品价格对其他商品的影响程度最大。随着收入等级提高,食品价格对其他商品的影响程度不断下降。     

不确定需求、垂直协调与电力市场结构

本文考虑一个在发电和零售环节均为完全竞争的电力市场。电力以事先确定的线性价格销售给用户,而电力总需求不确定。模型表明,如果企业的发电量与边际发电成本之间的协方差为正,即两个随机变量之间有正的线性关联度,那么在短期均衡中,垂直分离导致较高的电力价格和发电企业利润。在长期均衡中,垂直分离导致发电企业的过度进入,形成较高的电价和较低的社会福利水平。本文的结论对我国正在进行的电力体制改革有一定参考意义。     

考虑需求响应及其不确定性的台区三相不平衡治理

计及电力用户电量需求调整不确定性,建立了价格型需求响应模糊模型;基于可信性理论,考虑电力用户用电量与用电支出满意度,建立了台区负荷调整的模糊机会约束规划模型;利用清晰等价类方法对模糊机会约束进行处理,以台区三相用户用电偏差最小为目标,对A、B、C三相电力用户日前电价进行调整。算例表明所提治理措施能够减小台区三相不平衡度,降低台区负荷峰谷差,控制用户的用电成本,为三相不平衡治理提供新的思路。     

Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China＇s Inflation： An Empirical Investigation

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.     

俄美关系中的能源因素

从苏联解体到20世纪结束,美国在俄罗斯的能源输出中不占有重要的位置,俄罗斯石油在美国年进口的石油总量中的比例仅为1％左右.“9·11”事件后,随着俄罗斯对美国反恐战争的支持,在俄美关系升温的背景下,两国在能源领域加快合作步伐.由于国际油价的波动、近年来巴以爆发持续的激烈冲突以及……     

俄美关系中的能源因素

从苏联解体到20世纪结束,美国在俄罗斯的能源输出中不占有重要的位置,俄罗斯石油在美国年进口的石油总量中的比例仅为1%左右。“9·11”事件后,随着俄罗斯对美国反恐战争的支持,在俄美关系升温的背景下,两国在能源领域加快合作步伐。由于国际油价的波动、近年来巴以爆发持续的激烈冲突以及美国与沙特阿拉伯关系有所恶化,美国政府开始加紧实施石油供应多元化战略。俄罗斯石油产量的增长势头以及为减轻对欧佩克阿拉伯国家的石油依赖,使美国明确地选择了加强与俄罗斯能源合作的政策。此外,美国支持俄罗斯扩大石油出口的政策以平抑国际油价,不赞…