利用期货市场促进我国农业发展的思考

期货市场的风险转移和价格发现功能,对于促进农业产业结构调整、转移农业风险、增加农民收入具有重要的作用。然而,我国的期货市场特别是农产品期货市场还很不完善,期货市场与农业生产的结合方面也存在着很多问题。因此,期货市场的发展,必须增加农产品期货品种,完善农产品期货市场结构;加快农产品现货市场化改革,减少套期保值成本,完善期货交割制度;开展期货知识培训,普及期货市场知识;完善我国的农民专业合作社制度,引导农民通过合作社参与期货市场。只有这样,才能利用期货市场促进我国农业的发展。     

稳步推进我国农产品期货市场发展的建议

推进农产品期货市场发展的建议是:加深社会各界对期货市场的理解,为农产品期货营造良好的外部环境;加强大宗农产品期货的上市研究论证工作,扩大农产品期货品种;提高农业组织化程度,引导和带动农民参与期货交易;整合农产品信息统计和发布环节,加强对农民的期货知识培训;完善保证金体系,增加商品期货期权交易;拓宽期货经纪公司的业务范围和盈利空间;加快期货市场立法工作等.     

农产品价格风险管理:一个金融工程的视角

农产品的市场风险非常大,而金融工具中的期货和期权可以很好地用来降低农产品市场风险,但我国的期货期权市场还存在着许多制约其作用发挥的缺陷.为了降低农产品市场风险,要充分发挥期货期权市场的作用.因此,必须在以下几方面对期货期权市场进行改善:尽快开展期权交易的试点、积极培育农产品期货市场交易主体、增加新的农产品交易品种、加强对期货市场的监管以提高市场效率.     

发挥农产品期货市场在推动现代农业发展中的作用

本文分析了当前农产品期货的价格发现、转嫁风险、前瞻性预测及活跃市场等功能及其在推动现代农业发展中的作用;对当前我国农产品期货市场中在交易品种、交易主体与交易媒体等方面存在的问题进行了剖析;同时,对发展我国农产品期货市场针对性地就农产品期货市场交易工具、交易主体、交易媒体、农业信息化建设及农产品现货物流体系建设等提出了若干对策。     

中美农产品期货市场流动性比较研究

在梳理已有的关于期货市场流动性研究的基础上,通过对中美农产品期货市场流动性格局、换手率及期货与现货市场规模等比较分析,本文发现我国农产品期货存在以下特点:(1)中期月份合约活跃、且活跃月份不连续;(2)换手率高、且波动性大;(3)期货成交量(或持仓量)与现货规模比基本上远远低于美国同一品种。本文提出针对性建议:(1)应着重引进和培育机构投资者(尤其买方机构投资者和产业客户),改进和完善投资者结构;(2)应创新交易工具和交易方式,引导投资者交易行为由短线交易向中长线交易转变,改进和完善持仓结构;(3)应在有效防范风险前提下,完善梯度风险控制等相关制度,促进活跃月份向近月转移,形成连续月份活跃。     

完善我国农产品期货市场建设的思考

<正>农产品期货是世界上最早上市的期货品种,我国期货市场也于20世纪90年代初起步于农产品期货,经过20多年的发展,目前已上市交易玉米、水稻、小麦、大豆、棉花等21个农产品期货品种,其中交易最活跃的是白糖、菜籽粕和豆粕等品种。一、我国农产品期货市场基本情况(一)市场规模2016年,我国农产品期货成交量和成交额分别为14.37亿手和62.36万亿元,相较2015年同比增长     

中国发展期货投资基金的重要性与相关法律问题研究

一、中国发展期货投资基金经济原因与法律条件 (一)中国发展期货投资基金的重要性与迫切性 1.为了改善期货市场投资主体结构,充分发挥期货市场功能.期货投资基金能为广大投资者提供了一个有效的投资工具,可通过购买期货基金实现投资期货的愿望,把中小散户投资转化为机构投资,从而改善了期货市场投资结构,形成稳定的市场投资主体.期货投资基余的巨额资金量一方面扩大了期货市场的规模,另一方面也有利于实现其价格发现和稳定市场的作用、为那些商品生产者和经营者实套期保值交易吸纳风险.     

农民进入农产品期货市场的障碍

1990年10月12日，中国郑州粮食批发市场成立，中国期货市场正式进入到实际运作阶段，经过17年的发展，我国期货市场有了很大的进步，期货品种不断增多，规范化和法制化得到进一步加强，成交量和成交金额屡创新高，正如中国金融期货交易所总经理朱玉辰曾说的“中国期货市场发展到今天，已经有能力为农民增收做出自己的贡献”。在2008年中共中央的一号文件中，明确提出了“完善农产品期货市场，积极稳妥发展农产品期货品种”的话语，指明了未来农产品期货市场的发展是必须要和农作物种植者结合起来，以更好的发挥其规避风险和发现价格的功能。     

新时期我国金融期货市场初期发展设想

本文主要讨论我国金融期货交易所挂牌成立后,在选择股指期货作为首个交易品种的情况下,我国金融期货市场的初期发展问题。首先对我国早期推出金融期货的经验作了简要总结,从内部条件与外部环境两方面运用演绎法对其建立进行动因分析,指出当前建立金融期货市场的必要性及紧迫性,而后比较分析我国金融交易品种目前的发展现状,指出我国金融期货市场初期发展应注意的问题并提出建议。     

期货投资主体均衡性指数的构建

期货投资主体均衡性是指在公开、公正、公平的交易原则下．期货市场的投资者结构呈均衡协调发展的一种状态。目前我国期货市场虽稳步发展．但投资者结构单一．比例失调,制约着期货市场持续发展。本文应用AHP理论。构建了期货投资主体均衡性指数．并对我国期货市场投资主体均衡性进行实证评价可知。我国期货投资主体均衡性表现为“差”。     

发展完善我国原油期货市场的对策研究

中国重新推出原油期货,是经济发展的必然结果。原油期货上市意义重大,上市时机已经成熟。促进原油期货市场发展,需要建立更具开放性、操作性的交易机制;建立并完善石油战略储备体系;大力发展资本市场,构建多层次金融市场体系,推进石油金融一体化等等。     

日本商品期货市场近年衰落的原因和思考

进入21世纪以来,曾引领亚洲期货市场发展的日本商品期货市场明显衰落。在最初的要素条件、需求状况等外生比较优势逐步削弱的同时,规模经济、技术进步、产品差别等内生比较优势发展的滞后及市场分割、产业需求不足等固有矛盾的暴露,决定了日本商品期货市场发展的下行态势,日本监管当局规范和发展期货市场脱离实际的改革措施尤其加速了市场衰落的进程。本文从日本商品期货市场的现状入手,通过比较优势理论分析衰落的原因,并从大国商品期货市场的竞争和发展中探寻教训与经验,为我国商品期货市场发展提供借鉴。     

期货投资基金与期货市场发展探讨

现代期货市场在套期保值和价格发现功能基础上演绎出丰富的功能类型。在发达国家,期货投资基金规模庞大,具有成熟的交易策略和交易技术,已经成为期货市场所有功能有效发挥的中坚力量。中国要全面提升期货市场功能,确保价格安全和产业安全,应加快探索期货投资基金的具体模式、市场结构和法律框架,将期货投资产业链中的各要素进行重新整合,确立不同品种期货的产业集群式发展模式。为此,政府应主动打破路径依赖,实现以投资者结构多样化为基础的期货市场全面创新。     

我国期货公司构建全面风险管理体系的思考

我国期货市场进入高速发展时期。期货经纪公司为适应期货市场发展，要认真分析公司潜在风险的来源和成因，建立全面和完善的风险管理体系。     

The history of Western futures studies: An exploration of the intellectual traditions and three-phase periodization

The main purpose of this paper is to present a three-phase periodization of modern Western futures studies to construct historical classification. In order to reach this goal, the following intellectual traditions are introduced to review the philosophical and historical contexts that affect the very foundations of futures studies: (a) religions, (b) utopias, (c) historicism, (d) science fiction, and (e) systems thinking. The first phase (beginning in 1945 to the 1960s) was the era of scientific inquiry and rationalization of the futures characterized by the prevalence of technological forecasting, the rise of alternative futures in systematic ways, and the growth of professionalization of futures studies. In the first phase, futures had become objects of rationalization removed from the traditional approaches such as utopia, grandiose evolutionary ideas, naive prophecies, science fiction, religious attitudes, and mystical orientation. The second phase (the 1970s and the 1980s) saw the creation the global institution and industrialization of the futures. This era was marked by the rise of worldwide discourse on global futures, the development of normative futures, and the deep involvement of the business community in futures thinking. In the second phase, futures studies-industry ties were growing and the future-oriented thoughts extensively permeated the business decision-making process. The third phase (the 1990s – the present) reflects the current era of the neoliberal view and fragmentation of the futures. This phase is taking place in the time of neoliberal globalization and risk society discourses and is characterized by the dominance of foresight, the advance of critical futures studies, and the intensification of fragmentation. In the third phase, futures practice tends to be confined to the support of strategic planning, and hence is experiencing an identity crisis and loss of its earlier status of humanity-oriented futures.     

An Equilibrium Model of Catastrophe Insurance Futures and Spreads

This article presents a valuation model of futures contracts and derivatives on such contracts, when the underlying delivery value is an insurance index, which follows a stochastic process containing jumps of random claim sizes at random time points of accident occurrence. Applications are made on insurance futures and spreads, a relatively new class of instruments for risk management launched by the Chicago Board of Trade in 1993, anticipated to start in Europe and perhaps also in other parts of the world in the future. The article treats the problem of pricing catastrophe risk, which is priced in the model and not treated as unsystematic risk. Several closed pricing formulas are derived, both for futures contracts and for futures derivatives, such as caps, call options, and spreads. The framework is that of partial equilibrium theory under uncertainty.     

商品期货价格期限结构隐含交易策略信息的实证研究

本文采用静态和滚动主成分分析的方法对最具代表性的9个品种商品期货价格期限结构进行了分析,得出我国商品期货价格期限结构变动的3个主要特征:曲线的平移、斜率的变化以及曲率的变化。在揭示不同变动方式的信息价值的基础上,本文提出多头、多头或者空头、多空平衡3种交易策略,并通过构建两个商品组合与基准持有策略收益进行了比较分析。结果表明,基于商品期货价格期限结构的隐含信息而构建的交易策略收益显著超过基准持有策略的收益。这对于交易者制定正确的交易策略具有重要的意义。     

International Equity Index and Currency Futures: Commodity Currencies or Emerging Versus Developed Markets?

Equity index futures in both emerging and developing markets that are net commodity exporters are strongly linked to their respective currency futures markets. Unconditional correlations among equity and currency futures are the highest for these net basic materials producers in both emerging and developed markets. Granger causality tests also indicate that stock market returns are more strongly related to currency futures returns for commodity-exporting countries. Additionally, conditional correlations among currency and equity futures returns are the strongest for commodity-producing countries in both emerging and developed economies. Volatility spillover analysis provides consistent results. The overall results indicate that the status of a country as a net importer or exporter of raw materials is more important to the relationship between equity and currency futures than whether it is an emerging or developed economy.     

重推原油期货对我国的影响及完善建议

摘要：中国重新推出原油期货，是经济发展的必然结果。目前原油期货上市意义重大，上市时机已经成熟。重推原油期货，需要：打破石油市场的垄断，吸引广泛的市场参与主体；建立更具开放性、操作性的交易机制；建立并完善石油战略储备体系；大力发展资本市场，构建多层次金融市场体系，推进石油金融一体化；多视角择机推动“石油人民币”体系的建立，促进人民币的崛起。     

The Impact of Universal Stock Futures on Feedback Trading and Volatility Dynamics

Abstract:  This paper investigates the impact of the introduction of Universal Stock Futures (USFs) on underlying market dynamics (volatility and the level of feedback trading). Analysis of USFs provides a number of advantages compared to investigation of index futures, leading to reliable and wider ranging insights into the impact of derivatives. Specifically: (i) any impact of derivatives is more likely to be evident in the behaviour of individual stocks; (ii) with USFs it is possible to directly trade the underlying; (iii) USFs have multiple introduction dates within a given market; (iv) differential country/industry effects can be identified; and (v) the endogeneity issue can be addressed using control stocks. Findings suggest limited feedback trading in USF stocks, but listing has reduced this further. While news has less impact and persistence and asymmetry effects are more evident post-futures, control stock results suggest these changes are not futures induced. Differences are evident across industries. The need for analysis of an appropriate (industry based) control sample is highlighted if reliable policy conclusions are to be reached.