A MODEL OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE VIRTUAL AND THE REAL ECONOMY

This paper demonstrates through a formal model how the wealth effect created by a stock market boom leads to the expansion of demand and output mostly through debt‐financed private consumption. However, inherent in this expansion is the threat of a subsequent contraction caused by the rising burden of servicing debt and falling creditworthiness. The formal analysis captures more precisely these conditions; it shows that, even in the medium run, the growth rates of the wealth in the stock market and of the real economy may move in opposite directions.     

ASSET PRICES,OUTPUT AND MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We formulate a macro‐model of a small open economy in order to investigate the relative performance of rules that respond to asset prices and those that do not. Our model consists of three asset prices: the stock price, the long‐term interest rate and the exchange rate. These asset prices interact with nominal wage and price Phillips curves, a law of motion for the labour share, a dynamic IS curve that describes output adjustment and a Taylor‐type interest rate policy rule. Estimations of the model show that policy rules that respond to asset price movements dominate rules that do not.     

拉美与俄罗斯:货币政策美元化与货币财富美元化

20世纪 90年代以来 ,拉美与俄罗斯均出现了美元化现象 ,但拉美的美元化是一种“货币政策美元化” ,是其政府的一种政策选择 ,即是以政府出面宣布其经济美元化 ,其实质是一种彻底而不可逆转的固定汇率制。拉美各国通过实行美元化可以得到本国经济利益的扩大 ,促进经济发展 ,而俄罗斯的美元化则是一种“货币财富美元化” ,是其居民的一种自发行为。俄罗斯的美元化给其经济发展带来一系列的弊端 ,严重阻碍了经济发展 ,其美元化是一种与拉美诸国不同的现象。因此 ,分析这两种美元化的出现背景、主要表现及对各自经济的影响 ,以便引为借鉴。     

从欧洲货币一体化看东亚货币区的建立

欧洲货币一体化的实践验证了最优货币区理论。作者以欧洲货币区的适应发展为参照 ,根据最优货币区理论所提出的标准 ,分析了东亚地区实行单一货币的可行性 ,结论是 ,东亚各国与欧元成员国相比存在很大差距 ,在很多方面尚不能满足建立最优货币区的基本条件 ,因此 ,要建立东亚货币区还任重道远。     

市场经济模式中国的借鉴·选择·创造

通过对西方三种典型市场经济模式的比较,既明晰了市场经济的共性,更突出了市场经济模式的差异及其根源.市场经济模式只是分类的一种抽象,任何标准模式都不能照搬,只有进行比较借鉴与选择.中国要建设社会主义的市场经济模式,必须从本国国情出发进行模式创造.     

对循环经济的内涵与本质的思辨

提倡循环经济是当前我国社会经济发展的必然,目前已逐渐成为社会各界的共识。文章在初步探讨循环经济的内涵与本质的基础上,对当前存在的对循环经济理解上的误区进行了辨析,重新界定了循环经济的本质涵义,并提出我国当前发展循环经济的基本对策。     

WAGE POLICY IN AN OPEN‐ECONOMY KALECKI–KALDOR MODEL: A SIMULATION STUDY

This paper discusses a Post‐Keynesian model of income, production and trade. The one‐country, one‐sector model features Kaleckian investment demand, Kaldorian productivity and a labor market module based on a wage–price spiral. The model is first presented for a closed economy with exogenous real wages; second, for a closed economy with endogenous real wages; third, for an economy open to trade with endogenous real wages. Simulations with different calibrations show key characteristics of the model. Monte Carlo simulations over reasonable parameter ranges shed some light on the effectiveness of wage policies in open economies.     

BEHAVIORAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION: ASYMPTOTICS AND STABILITY ALONG A SEQUENCE OF MODELS

We consider a sequence of financial markets that converges weakly in a suitable sense and maximize a behavioral preference functional in each market. For expected concave utilities, it is well known that the maximal expected utilities and the corresponding final positions converge to the corresponding quantities in the limit model. We prove similar results for nonconcave utilities and distorted expectations as employed in behavioral finance, and we illustrate by a counterexample that these results require a stronger notion of convergence of the underlying models compared to the concave utility maximization. We use the results to analyze the stability of behavioral portfolio selection problems and to provide numerically tractable methods to solve such problems in complete continuous‐time models.     

公共财政概念、理念与原则的探讨

我国政府已经确立了逐步建立公共财政基本框架的改革目标,但是如何理解社会主义公共财政尚存在一些争议,为了形成基本的共识,探求公共财政理论的规范性,使得构建公共财政基本框架的改革不致发生重大的认识偏差,就有必要对公共财政的基本概念、理念、原则进行探讨。     

中国服务业发展的对策思路——基于知识经济背景下的研究

知识经济是建立在知识和信息的生产、分配和使用基础之上的经济形态。文章阐述了知识经济条件下 ,全球服务业发展的新趋势 ,分析了中国服务业存在的问题 ,提出了中国迎接知识经济挑战、发展服务业的对策思路。     

新经济与企业组织结构的变革

在新经济条件下 ,企业必须具有极强的应变能力 ,而传统的组织结构形式显然与这一要求格格不入。因此 ,有必要分析传统组织结构变革的趋势以及新型组织的特点 ,提出对传统组织结构的调整原则。     

经济转型期民营经济的功能及发展趋势

建立市场经济新体制,就要求形成市场经济运行机制、深化国有企业改革。民营经济是从计划经济向市场经济转轨的强有力的推动者;还是全方位改革的促进者;民营经济的发展还将成为政治民主的催化剂。     

A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF A MULTIFIRM MORAL‐HAZARD ECONOMY WITH FINANCIAL MARKETS

We present a general equilibrium model of a moral‐hazard economy with many firms and financial markets, where stocks and bonds are traded. Contrary to the principal‐agent literature, we argue that optimal contracting in an infinite economy is not about a tradeoff between risk sharing and incentives, but it is all about incentives. Even when the economy is finite, optimal contracts do not depend on principals’ risk aversion, but on market prices of risks. We also show that optimal contracting does not require relative performance evaluation, that the second best risk‐free interest rate is lower than that of the first best, and that the second‐best equity premium can be higher or lower than that of the first best. Moral hazard can contribute to the resolution of the risk‐free rate puzzle. Its potential to explain the equity premium puzzle is examined.