Borrowing Capacity and Financial Decisions of Low‐to‐Moderate Income First‐Time Homebuyers

This study documents the extent to which first‐time homebuyers seeking a mortgage accurately estimate their borrowing capacity and how this is associated with their decisions regarding mortgage debt and the take‐up of a free offer of financial coaching. We find that consumers who underestimate their nonmortgage debt (31.5% of the sample) also take out larger mortgages relative to income. Consumers who underestimate or overestimate their total debt as well as their monthly debt payments are more likely to accept the offer of financial coaching. Moreover, overconfidence in financial matters reduces the take‐up of financial coaching. These biases in perceived financial status appear to be systematically related to behavior among a group of relatively inexperienced consumers. These findings suggest that efforts to extend homeownership may need to include debiasing mechanisms to help less informed consumers accurately assess their current debt levels and ability to make ongoing mortgage payments.     

Analyzing leases with the after-tax cost of debt

A generalized expression of the net advantage of leasing (NAL) is used to assess the implications of discounting incremental cash flows at the firm's before-tax cost of debt and the firm's after-tax cost of debt, respectively. If no personal tax biases are assumed, then the before-tax cost of debt should be used to compute NAL. If the before-tax cost of debt is the correct discount rate, then any change in the firm's borrowing level brought about by the decision to lease rather than purchase will alter the computed NAL by the amount of the present value of the tax savings on interest payments. Thus using the before-tax cost of debt is consistent with basic MM valuation theory. Using the after-tax cost of debt, in contrast, implies that any associated change in the firm's borrowing level is irrelevant for purposes of computing NAL. Sufficient conditions are specified for the after-tax cost of the debt to be the correct discount rate for lease versus purchase analysis. Finally, lease analysis in a MM world is compared to lease analysis in a Miller tax world. For the special case of a 100% leverage ratio, the specification of NAL is the same in both worlds. Use of the after-tax cost of debt is correct in a Miller world and is a good approximation in an MM world provided the cash flows are predominantly debt financed.     

Leases and Debt: Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from Belgian SMEs

This study investigates the lease–debt relationship for Belgian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Traditional finance theory suggests that leases and corporate debt are substitutes: both leases and debt are fixed, contractual obligations that reduce the firm's debt capacity. More use of leases should therefore be associated with less non-lease debt financing. However, some empirical studies find that for large firms, leases and debt are complements. A theoretical explanation for this so-called "leasing puzzle" is based on the tax advantage of leasing over debt. However, in Belgium, tax differences between lessor and lessee do not affect the choice between leases and debt, because the lessee is considered to be the fiscal owner of the assets. He may write off these assets for tax purposes, and the interest part of the lease payments are deductible from his taxable income. Leases and debt can therefore be expected to be substitutes. This hypothesis is tested for a sample of 5,595 firm-year observations for 1,119 Belgian nonfinancial SMEs in the 1995–1999 period. The results indeed provide strong support for the substitution hypothesis: more debt is associated with less leases.     

Vehicle Acquisitions: Leasing or Financing?

In this study, we investigate household vehicle leasing versus financing behavior using the Interview Survey Portions of the 2001 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Two research questions are addressed in this study: (1) What are the demographics of those who lease as opposed to those who finance, and (2) What are the major factors affecting a consumer's probability of leasing versus financing when acquiring vehicles? Findings show that among income and demographic characteristics, being older, Caucasian or Hispanic, college educated, living in urban Northeast and Midwest, living in large Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), not having teenagers in the family, and having a higher income increase a consumer's probability to lease a vehicle. Most of these income and demographic effects either become smaller or disappear after the vehicle characteristics are controlled for. Among vehicle characteristics, being newer, Japanese or European made, luxury brand, with more cylinders, with power brakes, sunroof, and four‐wheel drive increase the probability of leasing. Purchasing the vehicle new instead of used, having a lower down payment and monthly payments, and having a smaller number of contracted payments also increase the probability of leasing.     

Credit card usage and consumer debt burden of households

The primary objectives of this study were to examine changes in credit card usage and the amount of debt between 1982 and 1986 and to identify factors influencing the amount of and changes in consumer debt held by households. Personal interviews were completed in 1982 and again in 1986 with the money managers of households in a small midwestern town in the U.S.A. The sample consisted of the 123 households that were represented both in the 1982 and 1986 surveys. Paired-samples t-tests were used to identify changes over time. Significant differences were found between 1982 and 1986 total household assets and total amount of debt. Regression analysis indicated that significant predictors of the amount of consumer debt burden were age, net income, total assets, and the degree to which managers felt comfortable with debt. Younger money managers were more likely to make larger monthly debt payments and have more consumer debt. Households with larger incomes and higher levels of assets also had higher total debt. Significant predictors of change in debt burden over the 4-year period were change in net income and total assets, with year-end savings being negatively correlated with consumer debt.     

我国农村小额信用贷款问题和对策

当前,我国现阶段农村小额信用贷款存在的问题,主要体现在农村金融信用环境差,农村小额信用贷款的风险多元化,农民还贷能力低,农村小额信用贷款期限和额度不合理,银行的内控机制不完善等方面。政府应从政策上重视农村小额信用贷款;积极引导农民的贷款投资方向,降低坏账率;制定优惠政策;增加贷款的透明度,从而切实解决农村小额贷款存在的问题。推动农村经济的发展。     

Gender Differences in Debt Repayment Problems after Divorce

Studies have shown that a growing number of divorced women were experiencing debt repayment problems during the 1980s. This study uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to (1) examine how debt repayment problems differ by marital status and gender and (2) investigate the role that supplemental income payments play in helping to mitigate repayment problems. The results show that divorced men and women are more likely to default on their debt obligations than married households. Further analysis reveals that increases in welfare payments significantly decrease the likelihood of default for divorced women but do not affect the probability of default for divorced men and married households. There is no evidence that payments related to child support and alimony affect default rates. The findings suggest that welfare benefits may help to mitigate the economic consequences of divorce for women.     

Bank lending,misleading signals,and the latin american debt crisis

This article explores the microfoundations of bank and borrower behavior in the Latin American debt crisis. In the model developed, less developed countries attract loans by signaling their ability and willingness to pay. Some of the signals are “coercive” because they indicate that if income targets are not met, income will be redistributed in order to honor debt obligations. Implicit in such coercive signaling is the borrower's expectation that redistribution will not damage economic productivity. A coercive signal is misleading when feedback effects on social stability and work effort—and thus on the ability to pay—are underestimated or ignored; in this case, it inaccurately predicts repayment prospects. We estimate two equations: (1) private lending to Latin borrowers as a function of our specified signals, and (2) the probability of payments problem as a function of the same set of signals. The results support our borrowing model: coercive signals do enhance lending, and at least one of these signals is misleading.     

Objective measures as a predictor of late payments by high‐risk borrowers

Manufactured homes (also known outside the US as prefabricated homes) are a viable housing option for low‐income buyers, but traditional mortgages are not available for purchase of manufactured homes because of a perception of higher risk of default among purchasers of manufactured homes. Research suggests that creditscoring models which incorporate objective data such as income, debt‐to‐income ratio and credit history result in an accurate and objective predictive tool to estimate likelihood of late payments and default among traditional home buyers. This study showed that these same models can be applied similarly to purchasers of manufactured homes. A Tobit model was developed to evaluate which factors most accurately predict default and late payment behaviour among borrowers who purchased a manufactured home. The model showed that when decomposed into the probability of making a late payment and number of late payments, credit score and income are both significant predictors in both sets of borrowers of both the probability of making a late payment and the number of late payments. The higher the credit score, the less likely the borrower is to make a late payment.     

IMF‐Supported Programmes: Stimulating Capital to Non‐defaulting Countries

International Monetary Fund (IMF)‐supported programmes catalyse private capital to non‐defaulting countries. We find the IMF to be effective in stimulating private capital flows to middle‐income countries that participate in a Fund programme, but do not restructure their debt. IMF‐supported programmes help non‐defaulting countries to signal their willingness to reform and repay debts, thereby catalysing private capital. This signalling role appears to be more important for Fund catalysis, than the size of IMF lending.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION,CREDIT RATIONING AND HOUSEHOLDS' DEBT

In this paper, we present a model of an economy with household debt, and discuss the conditions under which financial fragility arises. Financial instability is driven by distributive effects. In addition to the income transfers associated with interest payments, the accumulation of debt feeds back with the distribution of income between labour and capital. The model also gives a central role to banks and credit rationing. Contrary to the existing literature, credit supply does not depend on the characteristics of borrowers, but on those of banks. There is a feedback channel between the health of the financial system and the quantity of credit in the economy. We show that there is a diversity of channels through which financial fragility may arise. We identify three channels: a debt–deflation effect à la Fisher, a credit‐financed consumption boom and an exhilarating debt effect.     

ARE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND STABLE BALANCED GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM SIMULTANEOUSLY ATTAINABLE?

This paper presents an examination of the sustainability of national debt and economic growth, and the growth effects of government debt and income taxation. Results show sustainability of national debt and economic growth under the primary surplus rule. Fiscal policy and balanced growth are compatibly sustainable if and only if the government sets a long‐run target debt/GDP (gross domestic product) ratio within a reasonable range. Results also show that a rise in the long‐run debt/GDP ratio reduces the balanced growth rate. Based on these two results, the long‐run debt/GDP ratio is greater than zero if the government aims to maximize the balanced growth rate.     

Rent-to-own agreements: Customer characteristics and contract outcomes

The rent-to-own (RTO) industry, by offering immediate access to household goods for a small periodic fee with no credit check or down payment, has strong appeal to low income and financially distressed consumers. An important policy question is whether an RTO agreement is used as a rental/lease with build-in purchase option or as something more akin to an installment loan. Given the embedded options to return the item or to purchase it early, the actual rent paid by RTO customers is substantially lower than the oft-reported total rent which assumes that agreements go to term. We employ a log-normal censored regression model to analyze the influence of customer demographics as well as the transactional details of the contract on the rent paid by consumers using rent-to-own. Our main conclusions are (1) it is the “working poor” that are likely to pay more rent, (2) there appears to be a clientele effect with customers paying more rent under bi-weekly and monthly, as opposed to weekly, payment schedules, and (3) customers who exhibit delinquency in making contractual payments generally end up paying more rent. Further, our data allows some observations on annual percentage rates by illustrating the business risk present for RTO stores as well as the cross-subsidization of consumers.     

The path of lease resistance: How changes to lease accounting treatment may impact your business

In this installment of Accounting Matters, we examine potential consequences of the Financial Accounting Standards Board's Proposed Accounting Standards Updates for Leases. In the context of a previous accounting change (FIN 48), we investigate how these changes will affect firms’ accounting choices, investment decisions, debt covenant requirements, and analysis of other key financial data. Changes in accounting standards may have significant indirect economic effect on companies as they can trigger debt covenant violations, restrict access to capital, and distort key financial information used by investors and lenders. New accounting standards may also directly affect the calculation of employee bonuses and incentives that utilize EBITDA or operating income as benchmarks. We include recommendations for managers and identify specific debt covenant components that may limit the negative consequences of the proposed change to lease accounting.     

Changes in factors influencing consumer debt among Scottish families, 1984—1987

The major objective of this study was to determine socio-economic and debt management factors causing debt problems among Scottish families. Data for this study were collected from the records of the debt counselling segment of the Citizens Advice Bureau in Glasgow, Scotland, during 1984–87. The final sample consisted of 404 cases selected at random. Variables selected for the study included the following socio-economic characteristics: sex, household size, marital status, employment status, sources of income, and total income. Debt variables included in the study were total debt, sources of debt, amount of debt from each source, and total monthly debt payment. Total debt owed by debtors increased by 283% over the 4 year period from 295,113 in 1984 to 836,409 in 1986. The majority of the households had debt to income ratio of 0.50 and on the average owed on eight different types of loans. The largest proportion of debtors (87%) borrowed from finance companies and the largest sums of total debt were also owed to finance companies (52%). Finance companies consistently held this position over the 4 year period. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicate that employment status, number of sources of borrowing, marital status and sex significantly explained the variation in total debt burden. The number of sources is an important factor in debt management. As the numbers of sources of borrowing increases, not only the management of transactions gets complicated and one can easily lose sight of total debt burden, but it also indicates that people start borrowing from high cost sources of borrowing, such as store credit and finance companies. Educators need to emphasize the importance of the variation in cost of borrowing related to various sources in their materials, and these educational efforts should be targeted to females, singles and those who are recently separated and divorced.     

Strategic Debt in Vertical Relations: Evidence from Franchising

In this paper, we examine the strategic use of debt in franchise organizations. We focus on both the franchisee's and the franchisor's capital structures. The primary goal of this study is to examine whether franchisors impose limits on franchisees’ debt levels to be able to increase their own leverage. We find that the franchisor's leverage is significantly related to the maximum leverage allowed for the franchisee. As the franchisor sets an upper limit on the franchisee's debt ratio, the franchisor can raise more debt and therefore seizes tax benefits, since interest payments are tax deductible. We find that this effect is stronger in chains with larger fractions of franchised outlets.     

Impact of wage rigidity on sovereign credit rating

Sovereign credit rating is a condensed assessment of a country's ability to repay its public debt in a timely fashion. Downward wage rigidity has been considered as a critical determinant of various macroeconomic and financial phenomena. This study examines the effect of a country's wage rigidity on its sovereign credit rating after measuring downward wage rigidities based on a regime-switching model. The results indicate that greater wage rigidity induces lower sovereign credit rating. We find that wage rigidity amplifies cash flow fluctuations and magnified cash flow volatility negatively affects sovereign credit rating.     

Unexpected Consequences of Ricardian Expectations

The Ricardian equivalence thesis maintains that, given the time‐path of government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible lifetime consumption plans of the households and affects neither the demand for commodities and services nor the rate of interest, provided the households act rationally. This note establishes that the very expectations the thesis proposes (‘Ricardian expectations') are invalidated if households act rationally. The divergence from Ricardian equivalence is traced to the omission of interest payments on public debt as part of the households' disposable income. The non‐equivalence is valid in a wide class of models.     

The roles of personality and general ethical judgments in intention to not repay credit card expenses

There are no ‘card slaves’ but only cardholders who cannot meet their obligations. Recently, the issue that people are plagued by huge credit card debt has become more serious in Taiwan. This study proposed a model linking personality traits (locus of control (LOC) and risk-taking propensity), general ethical judgments regarding credit card use, and behavioral intention to not repay credit card expenses. External LOC and risk-taking propensity can predict intention to not repay through ethical judgments. Furthermore, external LOC can directly affect the intention. The model has been empirically justified by using the data collected from 448 credit cardholders in Taiwan (at least 20 years old). Those with ethical judgments of actively benefiting from illegal activities or passively benefiting at the expense of others tend to have an intention to not repay. By understanding the causes of not repaying credit card expenses, financial service providers should be able to effectively reduce card bad debts. In particular, relationship marketing strategies are helpful to mitigate cardholders’ intention to passively not repay.     

Determinants of indebtedness among young adults: Impacts of lender guidelines,explicit information and financial (over)confidence

For most people, borrowing money is a necessary aspect of life in the 21st century. Wisely handled, loans give consumers access to consumption too expensive for most individuals to purchase with cash, such as homes and cars. However, history shows that taking on too much debt can be detrimental for the individual consumer as well as society as a whole. In this paper, we investigate determinants of over‐indebtedness among young adults. We perform three studies in a setting focused on buying and borrowing money for a home. We show that, compared with an overall mortgage amount, explicit information about monthly payments reduces the tendency to take on too much debt (Study 1), that the amount borrowed depends on standards regarding the loan amount communicated through guidelines from the lender (Study 2), and that borrowers who are overconfident about their financial abilities tend to borrow more than less confident individuals (Study 3). These determinants and their policy implications are discussed.