Mandatory IFRS adoption and analyst forecast accuracy: the role of financial statement-based forecasts and analyst characteristics

Review of Accounting Studies - This study examines whether the improvement in analyst forecast accuracy around mandatory IFRS adoption is associated with the improvement in the accuracy of...     

Does the financial analysts' usage of non-financial information influence the analysts' forecast accuracy? Some evidence from the Belgian sell-side financial analyst

This paper examines whether the use of non-financial information by sell-side financial analysts influences the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. The research findings, based on a survey of Belgian financial analysts, suggest that financial analysts who use more forward-looking information and more internal-structure information offer more accurate forecasts. Furthermore, the listed Belgian firms examined in this study have improved their non-financial information reporting over time. However, neither the frequency nor the quantity of non-financial information mentioned by financial analysts in their reports appears to have increased over time.     

Jackknifing stock return predictions

We show that the general bias-reducing technique of jackknifing can be successfully applied to stock return predictability regressions. Compared to standard OLS estimation, the jackknifing procedure delivers virtually unbiased estimates with mean squared errors that generally dominate those of the OLS estimates. The jackknifing method is very general, as well as simple to implement, and can be applied to models with multiple predictors and overlapping observations. Unlike most previous work on inference in predictive regressions, no specific assumptions regarding the data generating process for the predictors are required. A set of Monte Carlo experiments show that the method works well in finite samples and the empirical section finds that out-of-sample forecasts based on the jackknife estimates tend to outperform those based on the plain OLS estimates. The improved forecast ability also translates into economically relevant welfare gains for an investor who uses the predictive regression, with jackknife estimates, to time the market.     

Discontinued operations and analyst forecast accuracy

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The Financial Accounting Standards Board requires separate reporting of discontinued operations within the income statement to provide better...     

Market microstructure and stock return predictions

To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by marketmicrostructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behaviorof stock returns? A two-equation econometric model of quoterevisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identifythe relative importance of different microstructure theoriesand to make predictions. Microstructure variables and laggedstock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-samplepredictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals.The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmedby the empirical results, specifies that the expected quotereturn is positively related to the deviation between the transactionprice and the quote midpoint while the expected transactionreturn is negatively related to the same variable.     

Can security analyst forecasts predict gold returns?

This paper examines whether security analyst earnings forecasts for firms primarily operating in the gold market can be utilised to predict returns on the price of gold. We first demonstrate that analysts are at least in part basing their earnings forecasts for gold firms on the return expectations of the gold commodity market. We show this by providing evidence that analyst coverage impounds not only market-wide and industry information, but also gold price information for these firms — as measured via its impact on stock return synchronicity. We then examine if the difference between forecast and observed earnings for these firms has predictive value for changes in the price of gold whilst controlling for a number of macroeconomic factors. We find that this difference does hold predictive power, but also has some limitations. However, there is potential for it to be used as an additional variable within gold forecasting frameworks.     

Does corporate governance transparency affect the accuracy of analyst forecasts?

Using country‐level proxies for corporate governance transparency, this paper investigates how differences in transparency across 21 countries affect the average forecast accuracy of analysts for the country's firms. The association between financial transparency and analyst forecast accuracy has been well documented in previous published literature; however, the association between governance transparency and analyst forecast accuracy remains unexplored. Using the two distinct country‐level factors isolated by Bushman et al. (2004 ), governance transparency and financial transparency, we investigate whether corporate governance information impacts on the accuracy of earnings forecasts over and above financial information. We document that governance transparency is positively associated with analyst forecast accuracy after controlling for financial transparency and other variables. Furthermore, our results suggest that governance‐related disclosure plays a bigger role in improving the information environment when financial disclosures are less transparent. Our empirical evidence also suggests that the significance of governance transparency on analyst forecast accuracy is higher when legal enforcement is weak.     

Audit committee financial expertise and properties of analyst earnings forecasts

An important role of financial accounting information is to aid financial statement users in forming expectations about the firm's future earnings. Prior research finds that accounting financial expertise of the audit committee is associated with higher financial reporting quality. We extend this literature by examining the association between audit committee financial expertise and analysts' ability to anticipate future earnings. We find a significant association between accounting financial expertise on the audit committee and analyst earnings forecasts that are more accurate and less dispersed. In contrast, we do not find a significant association between non-accounting financial expertise (i.e., supervisory expertise) and forecast accuracy or forecast dispersion. These findings contribute to our understanding of the benefits of accounting expertise in audit committees by demonstrating an association between accounting financial expertise and improvements in analyst earnings forecasts.     

Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness

We investigate regulations intended to stop managers from privately disclosing corporate information to analysts in a setting with enhanced potential to isolate regulatory effects: the European Union (EU) Market Abuse Directive (MAD), a common regulation implemented by member states with varying sanctions and enforcement resources. Following the implementation of MAD in a country, analyst forecasts become more accurate, with relatively little of the effect attributable to increased voluntary public disclosure by covered firms. The effect of MAD on analyst accuracy is stronger in countries with more stringent enforcement and sanction systems. Although the improvement in accuracy is associated with the implementation of MAD alone, stock prices do not respond more strongly to analyst forecast releases until after market-trading enforcement improves under subsequent EU legislation (MiFID).     

金融信息安全浅析

20世纪50年代以来,科学技术与世界经济一体化的迅猛发展,对传统金融业产生了广泛而深刻的影响,并引发了其根本性变革.网上银行、电子商务、电子支付工具等新的服务方式正在兴起,金融运行模式也正在发生深刻的变化.     

Brokerage M&As and the peer effect on analyst forecast accuracy

We examine whether the impact of a change in the number of analysts a brokerage firm employs has an asymmetric effect on the forecasting ability of superior and inferior analysts. Specifically, we show that following brokerage M&As only superior analysts benefit from a rise in having a larger number of peers. In addition, we find that the market does not account for the improved performance among superior analysts, and argue that this creates an opportunity for investors to capitalize on this.     

Causal language intensity in performance commentary and financial analyst behaviour

We use automated techniques to measure causal reasoning on earnings‐related financial outcomes of a large sample of MD&A sections of US firms and examine the intensity of causal language in that context against extent of analyst following and against properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find a positive and significant association between a firm's causal reasoning intensity and analyst following and analyst earnings forecast accuracy respectively. Correspondingly, analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion is negatively and significantly associated with causal reasoning intensity. These results suggest that causal reasoning intensity provides incremental information about the relationship between financial performance outcomes and its causes, thereby reducing financial analysts’ information processing and interpreting costs and lowering overall analyst information uncertainty. Additionally, we find that decreases in analyst following are followed by more causal reasoning on performance disclosure. We also find that firms with a considerable increase of causal disclosure especially attract new analysts who already cover many firms. Overall, our evidence of the relationship between causal reasoning intensity and properties of analyst behaviour is consistent with the proposition that causal reasoning is a generic narrative disclosure quality characteristic, able to provide incremental information to analysts and guide analysts' behaviour.     

中国金融认证中心：为金融信息安全保驾护航

上世纪末以来，我国的金融业发生了巨大变化，金融信息化快速发展，交易支付从传统的现金方式逐渐转向电子化方式。与此同时，电子支付的安全问题被相关部门、金融机构及各企业单位高度重视。     

金融信息系统的安全风险评估

一、引言 信息 技术在金 融领域的应 用不断 深入,引起 现代金融管理 、经 营以及 监管 方式等 诸多 方面 的深刻 变化 。随着网 络 技 术 和信 息 技 术 的 不断 发 展 ,网上 金 融 、网 上 管理和网 上监 管将逐 步取 代传 统经营 管理 方式,这种 非接触式的动态 经营管理将     

金融网络系统安全方案

随着计算机网络技术的普及，金融企业作为高新技术的受益者，在“单机—城域网—区域网—省域网—全国网—互联网”的发展过程中，数据逐级上收，网络规模逐步扩大，与之相应的网络安全也日趋重要。现在普遍存在的问题是重网络应用，轻网络安全管理。不少网络管理者认为金融企业网是脱离公网、相对封闭的网络系统，其安全威胁主要来自公网，而对于内部网的安全防范相对薄弱，存在很多网络安全隐患。一、网络安全隐患典型的省域网网络拓扑结构如图１所示。图１中，省分行数据中心受防火墙保护，可以有效防止来自地市分行的网络入侵；同样，地…     

瑞星打造金融业信息安全解决方案

随着金融企业服务的多样化,企业面对的网络安全风险形势日益严峻。除电子商务、网上支付等来自外部网络的风险外,企业更多地需要应对来自企业内部网络的风险。内部网络风险主要来自边界安全风险（黑客攻击、垃圾邮件等）、内网安全风险（主机系统漏洞、服务配置不当等）、应用风险（Web服务器、文件服务器安全风险等）、     

The impact of executive inside debt on sell-side financial analyst forecast characteristics

Debt-like compensation, referred to as inside debt, is prevalent in US firms and affects firm operating, investing and financial reporting activities. The amount of inside debt can be used to extract information that benefits analyst forecasting activities. This study finds that forecast accuracy increases, while forecast dispersion and revision volatility decrease with the magnitude of inside debt. Further analysis shows that inside debt is associated with increased propensity of firms to provide voluntary disclosures and the documented benefits on analyst characteristics accrue only to firms that offer close to optimal level of inside debt (Jensen and Meckling in J Financ Econ 3:305–360, 1976; Edmans and Liu in Rev Finance 15:75–102, 2011). Our research is the first to link debt-like compensation to financial analyst behavior and contributes to the understanding of the implications of inside debt to outside market participants.     

威胁情报赋能金融网络安全

2019年12月1日,网络安全等级保护2.0标准正式实施。新标准在网络安全新形势下适时推出,其中,将网络攻击分析特别是威胁情报、态势感知等新安全技术基本纳入到等级保护三级的要求内。威胁情报作为数据驱动安全时代的标配,已经成为新一代安全防御的基础和核心,在安全体系和应急响应中不可或缺。     

Financial accounting return on investment and financial leverage

This note presents a method for teaching the concept of financial leverage and its relationship to accounting rates of return. Typically, financial leverage is only briefly mentioned in introductory accounting textbooks, and it is rarely related explicitly to rates of return on total assets and on common stockholders' equity. Yet the concept is an important one for financial managers. We have developed and class tested a numerical illustration to explain in a conceptually sound manner why the two rates of return differ. Accounting instructors who share our view that financial leverage should be covered more thoroughly in the introductory accounting course will find this example to be a useful supplement. The example can also be used as a way to develop critical thinking skills or to enhance a user orientation.