Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration

This study investigates how and why different pairs of national equity markets display differing degrees of co-movement over time. We interpret a greater degree of co-movement to reflect greater stock market integration. We hypothesize the extent of stock market integration may depend upon certain macroeconomic variables that characterize and influence the degree of economic integration between two countries. As the degree of economic integration varies over time for a given pair of countries, we may expect the extent of equity market integration to vary systematically. We empirically investigate this hypothesis by employing a two-step procedure to explore first, how the degree of co-movement for a given pair of markets varies over time and second, why this interdependence varies over time. First, we employ daily data for nine national equity markets over 22 yearly samples to estimate annual Geweke [J. Am. Statist. Assoc. 77 (1982) 304–313] measures of feedback for different pairs of markets. For each pair of markets, the time series of 22 annual Geweke measures reveals the evolution in how co-movement in daily returns varies over time. Second, we specify a set of macroeconomic variables that characterize and influence the degree of economic integration for each pair of countries. Finally, we incorporate these variables in a pooled time series regression model across all possible pairs of these nine markets to estimate the influence of macroeconomic determinants on evolution in stock market integration.     

World capital markets and Finnish stock returns

The paper explores issues related to time-varying global equity market integration from a Finnish perspective. Finland is an interesting market since profound economic changes and financial deregulation have taken place since the mid-1980s. Using Finnish firm size ranked portfolios and a conditional four-factor asset pricing model, several restrictions on asset behaviour are examined. It is found that a proxy for changing market integration — lagged foreign equity ownership — has a significant impact on the relative importance of local and global risk factors. Significant differences are found between the pricing of shares that were freely-available to all (unrestricted shares) and domestic investors only (restricted shares). Results also suggest that major capital market reforms profoundly affect the degree of market integration, but local risk factors do not become redundant.     

Partial Price Adjustments and Equity Carve‐Outs

We examine the extent to which market‐adjusted ex date returns reflect public information for 271 equity carve‐outs in 1988–2006. Although prior studies focus on ex post determinants of equity carve‐out and initial public offering returns, our study is the first to explore ex ante predictors of equity carve‐out returns. We use three primary variables: filing range adjustments, the percentage of the offering used to retire subsidiary debt or to pay dividends, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VXO) to predict initial returns. We show that 11–35% of the variation in market‐adjusted equity carve‐out returns can be predicted using public information known prior to the offer date.     

Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets

We document that short-horizon pricing discrepancies across firms' equity and credit markets are common and that an economically significant proportion of these are anomalous, indicating a lack of integration between the two markets. Proposing a statistical measure of market integration, we investigate whether equity–credit market integration is related to impediments to arbitrage. We find that time variation in integration across a firm's equity and credit markets is related to firm-specific impediments to arbitrage such as liquidity in equity and credit markets and idiosyncratic risk. Our evidence provides a potential resolution to the puzzle of why Merton model hedge ratios match empirically observed stock-bond elasticities (Schaefer and Strebulaev, 2008) and yet the model is limited in its ability to explain the integration between equity and credit markets (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein, and Martin, 2001).     

Equity market integration in the Asia-Pacific region: A smooth transition analysis

We use a smooth transition logistic function to test for equity market integration in a sample of Asia-Pacific countries. This allows us to gauge the speed at which a market is becoming integrated. Of the countries we examine we find that Thailand has the fastest pace of global integration. When we examine the extent to which local integration is taking place, we find that Singapore is experiencing the fastest rise in market integration.     

The role of Chinese economic variables on Australian and New Zealand equity returns

This study investigates the explanatory power of Chinese economic variables on Australian and New Zealand equity returns. Results suggest that Chinese economic variables have significant explanatory power for both market‐level and industry‐level portfolio returns. Our results are robust when using the principal component analysis (PCA) approach. We also find the predictive power is stronger for the post‐FTA period. In addition, the out‐of‐sample analysis confirms our previous results, suggesting that Chinese economic variables contain incremental information when estimating Australian and New Zealand equity market returns. We believe our findings have important implications for investors and policymakers in both countries.     

THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY SET AND ITS PROXY VARIABLES

We use a real options approach to evaluate the performance of several proxy variables for a firm's investment opportunity set. The results show that, on a relative scale, the market‐to‐book assets ratio has the highest information content with respect to investment opportunities. Although both the market‐to‐book equity and the earnings–price ratios are related to investment opportunities, they do not contain information that is not already contained in the market‐to‐book assets ratio. Consistent with this finding, a common factor constructed from several proxy variables does not improve the performance of the market‐to‐book assets ratio.     

Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!

This paper takes a new look at the predictability of stock market returns with risk measures. We find a significant positive relation between average stock variance (largely idiosyncratic) and the return on the market. In contrast, the variance of the market has no forecasting power for the market return. These relations persist after we control for macroeconomic variables known to forecast the stock market. The evidence is consistent with models of time‐varying risk premia based on background risk and investor heterogeneity. Alternatively, our findings can be justified by the option value of equity in the capital structure of the firms.     

Capital Market Regimes and Bank Structure in Europe

We hypothesize that fundamental features that distinguish European capital markets have predictably influenced emerging national differences in bank capitalization and loan growth. Using bank‐level data from 13 European countries, 1998 to 2004, we find evidence of positive effects of “equity‐friendly” market features on bank capitalization and positive effects of both “equity‐friendly” and “credit‐friendly” market features on loan growth. The findings are strongest in small banks and in banks with cooperative charters. Our results suggest that ongoing and prospective integration of European banking markets is mitigated by relatively static features of the equity and credit markets on which banks rely.     

The Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Variables on Market Risk: Evidence from International Equity Returns

Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time–varying two–factor international asset pricing model for the weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. We find significant time–variation in the exposure (beta) of country equity index returns to the world market index and in the risk–adjusted excess returns (alpha). We then explain these world market betas and alphas using a number of country–specific macroeconomic and financial variables with a panel approach. We find that several variables including imports, exports, inflation, market capitalisation, dividend yields and price–to–book ratios significantly affect a country's exposure to world market risk. Similar conclusions are obtained by using lagged explanatory variables, and thus these variables may be useful as predictors of world market risks. Several variables also significantly impact the risk–adjusted excess returns over this time period. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications. We further discuss some economic hypotheses that may explain these relationships.     

Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small‐Sample Bias?

Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time‐series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance 58, 483–517) pseudo market‐timing bias. Using standard simulation techniques, we find that the bias is much too small to account for the observed predictive power of the equity share in new issues, corporate investment plans, insider trading, dividend initiations, or the maturity of corporate debt issues.     

International Cross‐Listings and Subsequent Security‐Market Choices: Evidence from ADRs

We study the link between the attributes of American depositary receipt (ADR)‐listed firms and their post‐listing security‐market choices. We find that developed market firms are more likely to issue equity and debt than their emerging market counterparts. Furthermore, we find that large firms are more likely to issue debt and less likely to issue equity. When we examine locations where ADR firms raise their capital, we find that firms originating from countries where the protection of minority shareholders is weak are more likely to issue debt on their home markets and less likely to issue debt on international markets (excluding U.S. markets). Furthermore, ADR firms originating from developed (emerging market) countries are more (less) likely to issue their equity on their domestic markets and less (more) likely to issue equity on international markets (excluding U.S. markets).     

The Initial Public Offerings of Listed Firms

A number of firms in the United Kingdom list without issuing equity and then issue equity shortly thereafter. We argue that this two‐stage offering strategy is less costly than an initial public offering (IPO) because trading reduces the valuation uncertainty of these firms before they issue equity. We find that initial returns are 10% to 30% lower for these firms than for comparable IPOs, and we provide evidence that the market in the firm's shares lowers financing costs. We also show that these firms time the market both when they list and when they issue equity.     

IS THE BOOK‐TO‐MARKET RATIO A MEASURE OF RISK?

We develop a leverage‐based alternative to traditional asset pricing models to investigate whether the book‐to‐market ratio acts as a proxy for risk. We argue that the book‐to‐market ratio should act as a proxy because of the expected relations between (1) financial risk and measures of capital structure based on the market value of equity and (2) asset risk and measures of capital structure based on the book value of equity. We find no relation between average stock returns and the book‐to‐market ratio in all‐equity firms after controlling for firm size, and an inverse relation between average stock returns and the book‐to‐market ratio in firms with a negative book value of equity.     

The Performance of Local versus Foreign Mutual Fund Managers

In this paper we examine the performance of US equity funds (locals) versus UK equity funds (foreigners) also investing in the US equity market. Based on informational disadvantages one would expect the UK funds to under‐perform the US funds, especially in the research‐intensive small company market. After controlling for tax treatment, fund objectives, investment style and time‐variation in betas, we do not find evidence for this. In the small company segment we even find a slight out‐performance for UK funds compared to US funds. Finally we observe a home bias in the UK portfolios, which is partly attributable to UK funds investing in cross‐listed stocks in the USA.     

The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns

We investigate predictability in national equity market returns,and its relation to global economic risks. We show how to consistentlyestimate the fraction of the predictable variation that is capturedby an asset pricing model for the expected returns. We use amodel in which conditional betas of the national equity marketsdepend on local information variables, while global risk premiadepend on global variables. We examine single- and multiple-betamodels, using monthly data for 1970 to 1989. The models capturemuch of the predictability for many countries. Most of thisis related to time variation in the global risk premia.     

The Australian asset‐pricing debate

Utilising a comprehensive data set for Australian firms, we examine a range of competing asset‐pricing models, including the four‐ and five‐factor models where the equity‐risk premium is augmented by size, value, momentum and liquidity premia, and find that none of the models tested appears to adequately explain the cross section of Australian returns. A model accounting for Australia's integration with the US equity market appears to be the best of the competing models we study. Our argument that a model recognising Australia's integration with the USA is supported when we apply the portfolio and factor construction methodology suggested by Brailsford et al. (2012a,b).     

Law and Executive Compensation: A Cross‐Country Study

Companies outside the U.S. use substantially less equity in their compensation mix than U.S. firms. But despite this consistent “cross‐sectional” difference, the pattern of changes in equity‐based pay of non‐U.S. companies over time appears to mirror changes in the pay of U.S. companies. The authors provide persuasive evidence that features of a nation's legal environment help explain major differences in compensation structure across countries. As a general rule, companies in countries that provide greater protection of shareholder rights use larger amounts of equity‐based compensation. And the equity mix also tends to be higher when a country's legal system ensures strict enforcement of the laws that are on the books. At the same time, since the equity mix varies considerably over time within the same legal environment, it is clear that factors other than the legal environment affect compensation structure. The authors report that, after controlling for legal factors, company‐specific variables that proxy for “agency” conflicts—not only between managers and shareholders, but between controlling and minority shareholders as well—also affect the compensation mix in fairly predictable ways. The bottom line of this study is that, although we may have a global market for talent, compensation structures across countries are not likely to converge unless and until the underlying legal protections afforded shareholders converge. At the same time, the effect of agency costs in compensation design for non‐U.S. firms appears to be partly conditioned by the nation's legal system and the entire set of regulatory and other institutions that are affected by it.     

Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium

Consistent with the predictions of rare disaster models, we find that a proxy for the time‐varying probability of rare disasters helps to explain fluctuations in expectations of the equity risk premium. Our proxy for disaster risk is a recently developed measure of global political instability, and the expected market risk premium is from Value Line analysts' expected stock returns. Consistent with long‐run risk models, uncertainty about expected GDP growth and expected consumption growth is also significantly positively related to the expected market risk premium. We obtain similar results when we use the earnings–price ratio and the dividend–price ratio as proxies for the expected market risk premium.