石油金融化与我国石油金融战略体系的构建

原油供求特点和世界石油供需空间分布不均衡决定了石油具有金融属性,石油市场与金融市场的联系空前紧密且高度一体化,国际石油市场日益金融化.在此背景下.我国石油安全的两个主要方面:供应安全和价格安全,在未来均面临着严峻挑战,石油安全本质上已经从"生产-供应"型的"供给安全"模式转变成"贸易-金融"型的"价格安全".为保证石油安全,必须加快建立石油金融战略体系.     

中国的货币化与金融化:影响因素与演进趋势

我国的货币化与金融化问题,尽管基本上符合经济货币化与金融化的总体趋势和演进规律,但却具有一定的独特性:具有极高的货币化比率和偏低的金融相关比率(从而极低的证券化比率).从储蓄分流、金融结构优化和缓解流动性过剩3个视角对该问题的分析表明:储蓄分流应该是增量分流,金融结构优化应该是缩减间接融资的相对规模,我国出现货币化"折点"应满足的条件是M2持续增长但其增速却持续低于名义GDP增速.就我国货币化"折点"出现的时间而言,尽管具有不确定性,但金融相关比率和证券化比率在相当长时间内继续提升却是可以明确预期的.     

货币超发、粮食金融化与粮食进口国粮食安全风险

近期全球粮价大涨,引发人们对粮食安全的关注.粮食安全不仅事关人民生计,也会引发经济政治社会问题.从理论角度看,货币超发—粮食金融化—进口国粮食安全风险是货币放水背景下引发粮食安全问题的传导路径.粮食安全风险向经济层面传导,引发输入型通货膨胀,带动相关生产要素成本和生活消费品价格上涨,形成通货膨胀和本币汇率贬值的恶性循环,造成跨境资本外流和外汇储备下降.2020年新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济造成巨大冲击,关联储开启无限量化宽松计划,引发粮价的上涨;叠加蝗灾和疫情影响,全球粮食减产概率很大,供给缺口叠加货币超发引发的粮价上涨,未来全球的粮食安全风险不可小觑.当前要重视经济结构单一、社会脆弱度高的粮食进口国未来发生粮食安全风险的可能性,特别要高度关注巴西、厄瓜多尔等13个粮食进口国的粮食安全问题.开展对外贸易和直接投资的中方企业,应当高度关注东道主国粮食安全风险,积极寻求商业保险和政策性保险.中国作为世界最大的粮食进口国,也应当高度重视自身的粮食安全风险.     

Depression in the workplace: negative effects, perspective on drug costs and benefit solutions

Depression is a relatively common disease that has more impact on employers' health care costs and workplace productivity than many chronic medical conditions. This article describes the costs of depression, both direct and indirect, and discusses effective employer strategies for dealing with depression in the workplace.     

Living on the border: knowledge, risk and transdisciplinarity

Transdisciplinarity has been hailed as a potentially effective means of addressing increasingly complex societal problems, the nature of which cut across the boundaries between orthodox disciplinary knowledges. In this paper we are concerned with an approach to achieving a form of transdisciplinarity which entails making linkages between scholarship and practice, as well as across disciplinary boundaries. Such ‘border-work’, we suggest, provides important options for engaging with a range of practical economic and quality of life related problems. Moreover, it offers new and challenging possibilities for scholarly work and understanding. We discuss some practical and conceptual difficulties associated with discipline-based investigations, and illustrate these difficulties by focusing on risk-related phenomena. Here we argue that much of what is interesting and important about the character of risk tends to be lost by the generalising, decontextualising and reductionist tendencies of discipline-based research. Finally we consider two existing approaches to establishing a practice for border-work. These have both attempted to combine an appreciation of the active character of practical reasoning by human agents with the constraining and affording nature of social and material contexts.     

Family learning in the workplace: nurturing lifelong learning

Lifelong learning must become a reality for all employees if we are to create and sustain organizations which can survive in the knowledge economy of the future. But how do we engage those who never access training and development opportunities at work? In this article it is argued that these people may be attracted back to learning by offering them opportunities at work to learn with their families.This different method of facilitating lifelong learning is examined here. The benefits to business and the wider community of encouraging families to learn together at work are explored. It is concluded that the addition of family learning in organisations to our current range of training and development activities can engage a new constituency in learning at work and can model the importance of lifelong learning to a new generation of future employees.     

Exchange rates,interventions, and the predictability of stock returns in Japan

Using monthly Japanese data for the period 1991–2005, we examined the link between exchange rate movements and stock returns. We found that exchange rate movements per se do not help to explain stock returns. There is, however, evidence of in-sample predictability if one accounts for the interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities in the foreign exchange market. This evidence does not indicate a violation of market efficiency insofar as investors cannot use information on interventions to systematically improve the performance of simple trading rules based on out-of-sample forecasts of stock returns.     

房地产金融属性的表现及经济含义:以美国房地产市场为例

随着金融自由化及经济资本化的深入,房地产金融属性的增强成为以美国为代表的全球房地产市场发展最大的特点。房地产的异质性被金融属性抹平,而波动的同步性增强,全球房地产市场首次同步繁荣,甚至开始脱离实体经济而自我膨胀。房地产金融属性的增强,使其更容易产生繁荣-萧条式的大幅波动。因此,需适当控制房地产金融属性。     

Managing workplace bullying experiences in nursing: the impact of the work environment

To progress our understanding of good practice in the management of workplace bullying, the authors explored the influence of work environment factors on bullying intervention. Analysis of focus group data from public hospitals in New Zealand revealed factors at multiple levels in the work environment system that influenced intervention. Many of these factors have previously been identified as antecedents to bullying, suggesting that the work environment hypothesis can also be applied to the management of workplace bullying experiences.     

Workplace bullying,workplace relationships and job outcomes for police officers in Australia

One alleged consequence of new public management (NPM) methods and practices, bullying, is seriously under-researched. The authors examined the impact of workplace relationships on police officer bullying and job outcomes. The quality of supervisor relationships seemed to buffer officers’ perceptions of bullying and, hence, their job outcomes. The consequences of the present post-NPM management practices are problematic, with negative implications for police officers in forming effective workplace relationships, which then negatively impact job outcomes, thereby affecting the quality of services delivered to the public.     

Strangers in a strange land: Knowing, learning and education for the global knowledge society

Profound changes to established patterns of life, root metaphors, necessary expertise and habits of mind are occurring as a consequence of globalization, information and communications technologies and the shift to a knowledge society. There is now a widening cultural mismatch between what members of the knowledge society need to succeed and what current systems of higher education are geared to offer. Increasingly, the result of this gap is that the products of today's Enlightenment-based socializing systems such as the colleges and universities are ill prepared for the actual challenges of contemporary life, often feeling bewildered and overwhelmed and like “strangers in a strange land.” A paradigmatic revolution in education is needed, but current discussion about reform is couched in the logic of market economics and draws inspiration largely from business strategies such as total quality management. It also remains firmly within the habits of mind and frames of reference of an Industrial Age. To adequately prepare people and communities to thrive in the global knowledge society, revolutionary changes are required in mission, curriculum content, pedagogy and modes of inquiry. The purpose must become explicitly aimed at producing a shift in the deep structures of consciousness and towards the development of transdisciplinary expertise—entirely new literacies and new approaches to learning that both fit the current economic realities and are more attuned to the socio-cultural, psychological and spiritual needs of an emerging global knowledge society.     

Fair process: managing in the knowledge economy

Unlike the traditional factors of production--land, labor, and capital--knowledge is a resource that can't be forced out of people. But creating and sharing knowledge is essential to fostering innovation, the key challenge of the knowledge-based economy. To create a climate in which employees volunteer their creativity and expertise, managers need to look beyond the traditional tools at their disposal. They need to build trust. The authors have studied the links between trust, idea sharing, and corporate performance for more than a decade. They have explored the question of why managers of local subsidiaries so often fail to share information with executives at headquarters. They have studied the dynamics of idea sharing in product development teams, joint ventures, supplier partnerships, and corporate transformations. They offer an explanation for why people resist change even when it would benefit them directly. In every case, the decisive factor was what the authors call fair process--fairness in the way a company makes and executes decisions. The elements of fair process are simple: Engage people's input in decisions that directly affect them. Explain why decisions are made the way they are. Make clear what will be expected of employees after the changes are made. Fair process may sound like a soft issue, but it is crucial to building trust and unlocking ideas. Without it, people are apt to withhold their full cooperation and their creativity. The results are costly: ideas that never see daylight and initiatives that are never seized.     

Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets

Using a new approach relying on news wire reports, we estimate the proportion of secret interventions (i.e., unreported official interventions) in the foreign exchange markets that have been conducted by the three major central banks since 1985. We therefore revisit the estimation of conditional probabilities of secret operations and compute them by both central bank and operation type. The proportion of secret interventions is found to be lower for concerted operations and to display a great deal of variability over time as well as across the three major central banks. Our analysis reveals that the Bank of Japan has recently adopted an intervention policy more based on secret operations.     

Fish consumption advisories: knowledge,compliance and why people fish in an urban estuary

The risk to human consumers from contaminants in fish is often dealt with by issuing consumption advisories. The hypothesis that consumption rates vary as a function of knowledge about advisories was tested for 254 people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex, in the New York/New Jersey harbour estuary. Interviews were conducted in the complex throughout the fishing season. There were no ethnic differences in the percentage of people who fished, crabbed, or did both, Most people either fished or crabbed, but not both, which has implications for risk assessment and communication. Only 45% of the people interviewed had heard about advisories; American Indians had heard little about fish advisories, and Hispanics had heard little about crab advisories. There were ethnic differences in education, consumption patterns, and knowledge about advisories. Knowledge about consumption advisories and the amount of fish and crabs consumed are negatively correlated. Despite laws forbidding catching (and consuming) crabs from Newark Bay Complex, people continue to do so. A higher percentage of people who consume the most fish and crabs are aware of consumption advisories, compared to those at the low end of consumption, but people who consume no fish or crabs from the Newark Bay Complex have the highest level of knowledge. There are few differences in the ratings of the reasons for fishing between those who are, and are not, aware of advisories. Since people mainly fish and crab to be outdoors and with friends and family, relax, and commune with nature, risk assessors and communicators should acknowledge the social and aesthetic nature of the activity, and address consumption by separating the activity (fishing, crabbing) from the risk (pregnant women and children should limit consumption).     

加速折旧企业所得税政策与实体企业金融化——基于2014年固定资产加速折旧政策的准自然实验

本文选择2011-2017年我国沪深上市实体企业的样本数据,以2014年固定资产加速折旧所得税政策的出台为准自然实验,采用双重差分法实证检验了固定资产加速折旧政策对实体企业金融化行为的影响。研究发现,固定资产加速折旧政策出台带来的所得税抵税收益在提升实体企业固定资产和无形资产等实业投资的同时,会提升实体企业金融化水平。进一步研究发现,固定资产加速折旧政策的出台仅对现金流较贫乏、非国有企业、成长性较高以及规模较小的实体企业的金融化水平具有显著促进作用。研究结论不仅能够丰富企业金融化的理论研究,还有助于税务监管部门进一步调整优化固定资产加速折旧政策及相关配套税收政策,以便更好地防范、化解脱实向虚风险,促进实体企业高质量发展。     

Scenario planning interventions in organizations: An analysis of the causes of success and failure

This paper presents a case analysis of a successful scenario intervention in an organization. This intervention is compared and contrasted with an unsuccessful one reported in Hodgkinson and Wright [Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: learning from failure, Organization Studies 23 (2002)949-977]. We demonstrate that analysis of the answers given by workshop participants in a pre-intervention interview can be helpful in determining the receptiveness of an organization to a subsequent scenario intervention. We theorize that strategic inertia-characterized by coping patterns of bolstering failing strategy, procrastination (over a strategic dilemma) and buck-passing (the responsibility for the dilemma's resolution), can be caused by the psychological attenuation of the perceived level of environmental threat to the organization, culminating in unconflicted adherence to the currently followed strategy. We contend that the expression of such coping behaviour is antithetical to a subsequent successful scenario exercise since, if the exercise fails to identify an unconflicted strategic alternative, the sharp focus of the scenarios on futures unfavourable to business-as-usual strategy will re-activate the cognitive stress-reduction mechanisms. Strategic inertia will thus be reinforced. We conclude with a review of the implications of our diagnosis for reflective practitioners.Our paper is divided into four sections. In Section 1, we overview writings on inertia in strategic decision making. We pay especial attention to identifying potential causes of inertia. Next, we present Janis and Mann's [Decision Making, Free Press, New York, 1979] views of the psychological processes invoked by conflicted decisions and analyse the relevance of this laboratory-based theory to provide a psychological explanation of strategic inertia. Finally, we briefly describe the scenario intervention process and argue that it contains the potential to overcome strategic inertia. In Section 2, we review an already-published study of an unsuccessful scenario planning intervention, which illustrates the operation of components of Janis and Mann's model. Next, in Section 3, we focus on our own case investigation of a successful scenario planning intervention. The early part of this section documents the “success”, whilst the latter part analyses the causes of the success—again using the components of Janis and Mann's model. We conclude in Section 4, where we compare and contrast the application of Janis and Mann's model to both cases and we demonstrate that application of the model to pre-intervention interview data can aid the practitioner determine, at the outset, whether or not the organizational context will be receptive to the intervention.     

Flexible inflation targets,forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries

Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulfilling the theoretical conditions of “strict IT”, which imply a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a “flexible IT”, which entails a de facto managed-floating exchange rate with foreign exchange (forex) interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility. Using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that, although IT lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes, forex interventions in some IT countries have been more effective to lower volatility than in non-IT countries, which may justify the use of “flexible IT” by policymakers.