The paradoxes of risk management in the banking sector

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that they have failed to rectify a critical imbalance of power - with the back office control functions continuing to be dominated by front office trading and investment functions. Ultimately, viewing the 'core' of risk management systems as a series of connected paradoxes rather than a set of assured, robust practices, requires a fundamental switch in emphasis away from a normative, standards-based approach to risk management to one which gives greater recognition to its behavioural dimensions.     

Paradox,accounting values,and intelligible regulation

Expected utility theory, which includes estimating the probabilities of uncertain future outcomes, is the classical model for rational economic decision making, and, by implication, rational valuation and financial reporting regulation. In Wittgensteinian terms it is a ‘hinge’ of the language game in which these practices are embedded. When rendered explicit, however, this ‘hinge’ appears to be formally incoherent. The exploration of this problem has consequences for all of our arguments over the epistemological underpinnings of accounting reports – whether realist, representational, constructivist, or otherwise.Arguably, there are two complementary primitive models that underlie real-world probability estimation. Taken together, they generate a version of Goodman's inductive paradox (other versions of which also arise for non-inductive empirical generalisation). This, in its turn, is related to Kripke's paradox, which arises when we try to give behavioural accounts of rule following, and so of participation in a language game.This paper explicates this type of paradox in the context of commercial decision making, and considers its consequences. The existence of paradoxes should render the system that generates them completely incoherent, but (paradoxically …) they seem to be generated by any attempt to give complete accounts of some of the normative fundamentals which underlie linguistic practice – such as truth-telling, validity and rule-following.Whether or not these paradoxes represent a serious threat to the coherence of the empirical or behavioural sciences, it might be objected that commercial decision making methods and financial regulation rarely aspire to the kind of rigour that these disciplines attempt to achieve. Part of the argument of this paper will be that the intelligibility of commercial language suggests an approach to these paradoxes which is not obvious from more traditional philosophical perspectives.The intentionality of belief renders certain belief claims by participants in a shared language game incorrigible (within the game), in the sense that they can be doubted only by doubting the seriousness or quality of participation. If certain statements about rule following and word meaning have this same quality, then there is a way of avoiding the consequences of Goodman's and Kripke's paradoxes, and of sterilising the probability estimation paradox for any playable commercial language game.     

Examining the Effect of Globalization on Insurance Activities in Large Emerging Market Economies

This study applies the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag long-run estimation technique alongside bootstrap panel Granger causality testing to examine the impact of globalization on insurance market activities in large emerging market economies. Economic, social and political globalization indices are considered separately. Two alternative measures of globalization (de facto and de jure) are also used in each case for our estimations. The empirical results confirm the following; first, empirical outcomes are slightly sensitive to the choice of globalization measure used. Second, cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity exist among large emerging market economies. Third, causality varies across large emerging economies with different conditions. We make a case for de facto measures as the most appropriate since they reflect actual practices rather than policy claims. We thus reach the conclusion that all dimensions of globalization positively impact life and non-life insurance density.     

人民币国际化与对外投资的内源机制研究

人民币国际化是市场选择的结果,它一般要经历贸易结算功能的国际化、金融交易职能的国际化和价值储备职能的国际化三个阶段。影响人民币国际化进程的主要经济因素归结为四个方面：中国出口贸易规模占全球比重、对外投资额所占全球的比重、金融市场的发达与开放度才及人民币币值的稳定性。人民币的国际化有利于中国对外投资的深入推进,同时中国对外投资的发展能够促进人民币国际化的进程,二者相互影响,相互促进。从对外投资的视角看,为了加快人民币国际化的进程,我国应该在对外投资区域、投资产业及投资方式作出重大的战略调整。     

Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study examines the role of economic globalization in financial development in eight East Asian economies. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals that cointegration is present among economic globalization, institutions, financial development, real gross domestic product per capita, and financial reforms. The Granger causality test results indicate that economic globalization has a significant causal influence on institutional quality, and institutional reforms have in turn facilitated and supported financial development, in particular of the banking sector in East Asia. Economic globalization is also found to have a favorable causal impact on stock market development without going through the institutional quality channel.     

香港作为全球性金融中心的比较优势与差距

本文从全球性金融中心的角度分析,指出香港的比较优势主要表现为在金融全球化格局中的区位优势、制度优势和金融业的比较优势。然而,与其他全球性金融中心相比,香港的差距也是明显的,突出表现为金融市场、金融机构的发展不平衡,存在众多的短板;金融业发展腹地比较狭小,总体规模仍然偏小。本文认为,香港如果能够有效推进与中国内地的经济融合,构建以香港为龙头、以深圳、广州为两翼的大珠三角金融中心圈,则香港有条件发展成为仅次于伦敦、纽约的全球性国际金融中心,成为亚太区特别是大中华地区主要的资产与财富管理中心、中国企业最重要的境外上市和投融资中心、全球主要的人民币离岸业务中心及亚洲人民币债券市场。     

中国金融业资产的规模与效率

通过在金融资产结构与经济增长模型中引入能够综合反映制度变迁的制度变量,证明国家制度变迁对一国金融资产结构与经济增长会起到促进或制约的作用.当制度供给与金融资产结构和经济增长对制度的需求达到均衡时,国家制度安排会优化金融资产结构、促进经济增长,否则便会出现规模与效率的"反比"现象,从而回答了我国金融资产规模与效率之间为什么出现悖论的问题.我国应积极发展非银行金融机构,实现金融体系多元化,对内开放,满足我国经济对多层次、多样化金融的需求,完善金融市场准入制度,优化市场参与主体结构,促进股票市场和银行协调发展.     

经济全球化对我国家电行业市场结构的影响及对策

随着经济全球化的进一步发展,越来越多的跨国公司进入我国家电行业,这对我国家电业市场结构产生重大的影响。本文拟从三个方面对此讨论:(1)我国家电业的特点及市场结构状况;(2)跨国公司对我国家电业市场结构的影响;(3)优化我国家电业市场结构的对策。     

中国金融业资产的规模与效率

通过在金融资产结构与经济增长模型中引入能够综合反映制度变迁的制度变量，证明国家制度变迁对一国金融资产结构与经济增长会起到促进或制约的作用。当制度供给与金融资产结构和经济增长对制度的需求达到均衡时，国家制度安排会优化金融资产结构、促进经济增长，否则便会出现规模与效率的“反比”现象，从而回答了我国金融资产规模与效率之间为什么出现悖论的问题。我国应积极发展非银行金融机构，实现金融体系多元化，对内开放，满足我国经济对多层次、多样化金融的需求，完善金融市场准入制度，优化市场参与主体结构，促进股票市场和银行协调发展。     

GSE Activity,FHA Feedback,and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals

There is a seeming paradox regarding the “affordable housing goals”: GSE activities in targeted communities have increased under the goals but there has been little measurable improvement in housing market conditions in these communities. This paper seeks to reconcile this paradox by focusing on linkage between GSE purchases and FHA activities. We present a simple theoretical framework suggesting that GSE activities can have a feedback effect on FHA. More aggressive GSE pursuit of targeted borrowers under the affordable housing goals induces potential FHA borrowers with best credit quality to use the conventional market. Changes to the housing market will depend on the FHA response to the loss of its best credits, with many different possible outcomes for credit supply and homeownership, including scenarios in which they remain effectively unchanged. While market-level benefits might not be forthcoming, the shift from FHA to less costly conventional loans is clearly beneficial for affected borrowers. Two-stage least squares estimates of the relationship between GSE and FHA lending after the affordable housing goals were made more binding are found to be consistent with the theoretical predictions.

新加坡亚洲货币单位的新进展及其对我国发展人民币离岸市场的启示

文章全面、系统地介绍了新加坡亚洲货币单位设立背景、业务申请、监管要求和近期业务发展情况,分析了亚洲货币单位对我国发展人民币离岸市场和推动人民币国际化的借鉴意义。文章指出,不能简单照搬亚洲货币单位的发展模式,而是要立足本国国情探索人民币国际化的发展道路,随着金融市场改革开放的进展,逐步推动离岸、在岸市场的融合和沟通。     

Automating german equity trading: Bid-ask spreads on competing systems

As a result of automating trading in the most active German stocks, data on bid-ask spreads on three competing system—IBIS, MATIS, and SEAQ International—have become available. The intraday pattern of spreads suggests a mid-session effect and a home-market effect. Contrary to what one might expect, the spreads for identical stocks differ substantially from system to system. Paradoxically, the system with the lowest spreads, MATIS, did not attract most of the volume. Actually, its market share declined. In an attempt to explain the MATIS paradox we hypothesize that bid-ask spreads compensate the market maker for a bundle of several transaction services of which providing immediacy is merely one. This complicates both national and international spread comparisons and has implications for the decomposition of observed bid-ask spreads.     

浙江“天生全球化”企业分析

面对世界经济全球化和市场一体化,“天生全球化”企业应运而生并引起了广泛的研究兴趣。本文主要在国外天生全球化研究的基础上,以浙江天生全球化企业为例,从企业家精神、利基市场、国际管理背景和企业网络等四个方面探讨其形成原因,同时针对目前存在的创业家缺乏、管理能力不足和产业分布不合理等问题提出了相应的对策,对浙江天生全球化的理论研究和企业实践有一定的借鉴意义。     

对外开放对金融安全的影响机制及政策建议

金融全球化在更大范围上提高了资源配置效率,提高了全球福利,同时也带来了更大的金融风险。国际市场的高度关联性使局部市场的波动迅速传播、扩大,甚至演化为大范围的金融不稳定,金融风险的传染性和破坏性加剧。我国作为发展中国家,当前需要全面深化改革以进一步释放市场活力和全球化红利,然而面对高度发达且瞬息万变的国际金融市场,如何保障自身金融安全、维护金融稳定是我们亟待关注的问题。本文探讨了金融开放对金融安全的积极和消极影响机制,并提出对策建议。     

全球化:中国的方式是什么?

<正> 司马加:中国的全球化方式是什么?无庸置疑,在过去20年当中,中国在改革开放的速度上以及在全球化的进程中都创造了世界记录。因为20年以前,中国同国外的贸易量占国民生产总值的比例几乎为零,现在一下达到了35%。现在中国在吸收外资方面仅次于美国,是第二大世界引资国。任何公司如果宣称自己是世界性的跨国公司,但在中国没有大的举措和大的作为,就不能称之为一个全球化的跨国公司。在过去的5年里,已经有很多中国公司走向海外,并且获得了一些全球化的市场份额。现在中国占世界贸易的总额是3.5%,中国一旦加入世界贸易组织,5年以后,我们相信中国占世界贸易总量将达到7%。当然,随着机遇还会碰到一些挑战和问题。我们现在可以提出一些问题,这种中国的全球化是否有中国的特点呢?     

Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies

This paper investigates the impact of globalization and integration on the relative benefits of country and industry diversification. Unlike previous models, our factor model allows asset exposures and volatilities to vary with both structural changes and temporary fluctuations in the economic and financial environment. First, we find that globalization and integration have lead to a gradual convergence of country to industry betas, especially in Europe. Second, the structurally-driven increase in market betas is accompanied by a gradual decrease in country-specific risk. Third, even though the edge has structurally decreased, geographical diversification continues being superior to industry diversification.     

Revisiting the new normal hypothesis

The paper estimates the impact of crises on output growth, augmenting Cerra and Saxena's (2008) analysis by extending the data until 2010, and by taking into account globalization and contagion effects. The paper finds that the decline in output growth rates following currency, banking and stock market crises are much larger in the sample ending in 2010, than in the one ending in 2001. The results are robust across different specifications and crisis databases. The paper finds that globalization, estimated using a factor augmented panel, has benefitted economic growth in the long run, but those gains have been diminishing in the new millennium. Moreover, globalization also amplifies the negative effects of crises, especially for upper middle and high income OECD countries, starting with the new millenium. As such, lower output growth is to be expected as the new norm, especially in these more advanced economies for a lot longer than what would have been expected in an usual cyclical recovery, confirming El-Erian and PIMCO's (2009) statement of a “new normal.” Last, but not least, the estimation using a factor augmented panel leads to results consistent with thresholds effects of finance and growth, and of globalization on growth.     

Market volatility and momentum

We investigate the predictive power of market volatility for momentum. We find that (1) market volatility has significant power to forecast momentum payoffs, which is robust after controlling for market state and business cycle variables; (2) market volatility absorbs much of the predictive power of market state; (3) after controlling for market volatility and market state, other variables do not have incremental predictive power; (4) the time-series predictive power of market volatility is centered on loser stocks; and (5) default probability helps explain the predictive power of market volatility for momentum. These findings jointly present a significant challenge to existing theories on momentum.     

The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization

In the period from 1880 to 1913, time-varying German and British stock market returns are related to business cycle variables such as the deviation of industrial production from trend. Common British and German business cycle dynamics Granger cause stock returns and explain more than 20% of time variation in one-year ahead stock market returns. The link between business cycle variables and stock returns is less pronounced in the modern era of financial globalization. A potential explanation for this finding is the fact that during the first globalization period stock indices were dominated by industrial companies and stock prices varied in line with dividends. In the modern era of globalization stock price dynamics predominantly reflect time-varying risk premia.     

对新自由主义进行马克思主义批判研究的价值分析

新自由主义是全球化趋势的理论基础,它也正在迫使加入到经济全球化之中的国家采取市场机制作为经济发展的基本模式.本文探讨了在当前世界经济走向全球化,我国经济处转型时期的关键阶段,对"新自由主义"进行深入、系统的研究的意义.