双重委托—代理视角下的金融中介、金融加速器与经济波动的研究

本文在BGG模型基础上,建立了包含企业、金融中介、投资者的双重委托—代理模型,将金融中介纳入信贷市场摩擦的分析框架内。分析了金融中介自身受信贷约束时,其资产净值变化对经济产生的金融加速器效应。得出在双重委托代理的信用契约下,企业外部融资溢价不但受自身资产净值的影响,还受金融中介资产净值的影响。各种外部冲击通过信贷市场中金融中介的传导对经济波动造成进一步放大的效应,经济波动的金融加速器效应在考虑金融中介资产净值的影响后得到了增强。     

双重金融摩擦、企业目标转换与中国经济波动

本文构建了一个真实经济周期模型,首次将企业目标转换和双重金融摩擦因素融合为统一研究框架,并以此考察经济周期波动中信贷的需求和供给因素,进而分析双重金融摩擦因素在塑造经济周期波动态势中的作用。研究表明:(1)当银行与企业、银行与家庭间均存在金融摩擦时,顺周期的企业和银行资产负债表均会导致逆周期的企业外部融资溢价,对投资和产出产生双重加速效应,而缓解金融摩擦能够减弱上述加速效应进而有助于经济波动的平稳化;(2)由于家庭资产主要采取储蓄方式并且企业自有资金起到平滑信贷波动作用,信贷供给端摩擦产生的加速效应比需求端摩擦要弱;(3)企业目标转换通过经济结构渠道对金融摩擦的加速效应起到增强或弱化效果。因此,宏观调控政策应加强对企业和银行资产负债表周期性的关注,平抑由双重金融摩擦所带来的经济波动;合理界定政府与市场作用边界,国有企业非经济目标需要依据经济周期波动状况把握适度原则,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,更好发挥政府作用。     

货币政策不确定性、双重金融摩擦与企业创新

文章考虑信贷市场和股票市场的双重金融摩擦，研究货币政策不确定性对企业创新的影响以及双重金融摩擦的中介效应。结果表明：货币政策不确定性对企业创新具有显著的抑制作用，非国有企业、小规模企业以及高科技企业受到的抑制作用更强；货币政策不确定性上升通过加剧信贷市场摩擦和股票市场摩擦进而抑制企业创新；国有企业和高科技企业存在着显著的双重金融摩擦中介效应，而非国有企业和非高科技企业仅存在信贷市场摩擦中介效应；在双重金融摩擦中介效应中，信贷市场摩擦占比更大。     

企业规模与货币政策的非对称效应

在金融加速器模型的基础上，本文构建了含有企业异质性的动态随机一般均衡模型，并以此考察了我国货币政策对不同规模企业的非对称效应。研究结果表明，相对于大企业，中小企业更易受到紧缩性货币政策冲击的影响，中小企业产出下降幅度约是大企业的三倍。造成这种非对称效应的主要原因在于中小企业外部融资受到限制。此外，货币政策冲击通过信贷市场放大了经济波动，经济中存在着明显的金融加速器效应现象。因此，央行在制定货币政策时应考虑到货币政策对不同规模企业的非对称效应，并谨慎选择名义利率的调整幅度。     

银行资本约束与中国宏观经济波动——顺周期性下的金融加速器效应研究

有别于传统信贷需求渠道的金融加速器效应研究路径,构建包含银行部门的DSGE模型从信贷供给的角度分析基于银行资本渠道的金融加速器效应,以中国2000—2011年季度数据估计及模拟发现,随着巴塞尔协议的升级,银行资本约束上升增大了各项冲击对经济波动的影响,表现出较强的顺周期性,在经济复苏期不宜过早地执行巴塞尔协议III,需分阶段渐进实施资本监管,必要时需通过量化宽松货币政策向银行注入资本,以减缓这种金融加速器效应。     

资产净值、信贷扩张与投资支出

本文在对资产净值、信贷扩张与投资支出关系进行理论分析的基础上,运用Granger因果检验、VAR模型等方法实证分析了资产价格波动与我国信贷的关系,结果发现,房价变动率对我国贷款变动率有显著的正向影响,说明存在房价影响投资的资产负债表渠道.文章最后提出政策当局应注意资产价格波动对企业净值和银行信贷的影响,尤其要避免房价暴跌带来的"金融加速器"效应及随之而来的金融风险.     

金融要素对经济周期波动的影响:一个文献综述

实证和理论研究均表明,金融要素会放大随机冲击对经济的影响,即金融对经济波动的加速器作用。在此背景下,本文首先梳理金融加速器理论产生的原因及其传导机制;其次,引入金融机构(银行),从企业资产负债表效应和银行资产负债表效应两个角度阐述金融要素对经济波动的放大作用;再次,从多元投资组合和国际借贷两个方面揭示金融加速器对国际经济周期的传播和扩大作用,并指出金融加速器在我国的存在性;最后,总结了金融要素对经济周期波动的影响,并提出未来可能的研究方向。     

金融发展与内生经济波动

开放经济中,金融发展在促进经济增长的同时,也把影响经济波动的国际因素传导到了国内。而这种负面影响在金融发展理论中却被忽略了,正因为如此,许多发展中国家出现了超越其经济发展水平的“过度金融发展”问题。金融深化可以促进金融市场发展和金融中介机构的发展,通过资产组合、财富效应、国际资本借贷把国外影响经济波动的效应传导至国内;另外,金融发展还可通过促进国际贸易的发展而传导外部影响。对样本国家进行分析的结果证实金融发展的确导致经济波动内生化。     

资产负债表、金融加速器与企业投资

文章针对金融加速器的形成机制,利用中国上市公司数据,运用动态面板数据模型对中国金融加速器效应的两种非对称性进行了实证检验。得出结论:企业资产负债表状况对企业投资支出具有重要影响,经济下滑时期的影响更大;小企业的金融加速器效应明显大于中、大型企业。这些结论为政府制定相应政策以熨平经济波动提供了实证依据。     

我国金融经济周期的区制效应分析

金融经济周期是指金融因素导致的经济周期波动。基于金融周期和经济周期指数,通过马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型(MS-VAR),对我国金融放大经济波动的区制效应进行实证研究,结果表明：金融对经济波动的放大效应在不同的时间区间是不同的,经济处于剧烈波动期时,金融对经济波动的放大效应比经济处于平稳期时更为强烈。金融加速器理论与不确定性、公众预期、金融结构的变化和影子银行的发展等因素叠加在一起造成了不同时期金融放大经济波动的不同。央行应通过甄别不同时期内放大效应的不同,设计有区别的货币政策与宏观审慎政策,并且有针对性地选择预期管理形式以减轻金融对经济波动的不利影响。     

Sources of business fluctuations: Financial or technology shocks?

Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that in the absence of financial frictions, a shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and net worth in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment, the investment-good price markup, and the rates of neutral and investment-specific technological changes. This model is estimated using eleven US time series that include data on loan, net worth, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that the (non-stationary) neutral and investment-specific technology shocks primarily drive output and investment fluctuations, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom–bust cycles over the past two decades.     

金融投资中介化、噪声交易与金融危机模型的微观建构

随着金融市场的发展,投资者更多地通过金融中介间接参与金融市场投资。然而,金融中介的风险转移倾向容易导致风险资产的均衡价格偏离其基础价值,形成价格泡沫。长期存在的噪声交易者与金融投资中介化引发的资产泡沫相互推动,最终形成金融危机。即使在经济稳定的环境下,同样会由于金融市场本身发展的内在矛盾而导致危机的发生。     

Collateral,labour monitoring and banking accelerator

This paper derives the determination of external finance premium (EFP ) in the context of banking sector profit maximisation behaviour. EFP/credit spread stems from the managerial cost, associated with the intermediation process, of factor payments to collateral and labour services. The stake of entrepreneurs is relevant to determine the EFP on two grounds: (a) the ratio of entrepreneurial net wealth to collateral value influences the total managerial cost; and (b) entrepreneurs' net worth (fraction of total collateral) helps mitigate the EFP from extracting rebate from collateral service. Based on these, we can derive an observationally similar relationship between EFP and entrepreneurial leverage, as in previous studies. This provides a rationale for us to understand the financial friction from a novel perspective. Besides the leverage ratio, the EFP is shown to be determined also by the resource cost of financial intermediation, for which the model generates a mechanism that contains broader ingredients in determining the behaviour of EFP .     

Financial market frictions in a model of the Euro area

We build a model of the euro area incorporating financial market frictions at the level of firms and households. Entrepreneurs borrow from financial intermediaries in order to purchase business capital, in the spirit of the “financial accelerator” literature. We also introduce two types of households that differ in their degree of time preference. All households have preferences for housing services. The impatient households are faced with a collateral constraint that is a function of the value of their housing stock. Our aim is to provide a unified framework for policy analysis that emphasises financial market frictions alongside the more traditional model channels. The model is estimated by Bayesian methods using euro area aggregate data and model properties are illustrated with simulation and conditional variance and historical shock decomposition.     

Endogenous growth cycles with financial intermediaries and entrepreneurial innovation

This study analyzes the effects of financial intermediaries’ activities on economic fluctuations in a model of endogenous innovation cycles. In the model, I consider an economy in which entrepreneurs and financial intermediaries engage in their respective innovative activities. Entrepreneurs can invent new products and raise funds for their invention from financial intermediaries and if their invention is successful, they can produce new products. Only financial intermediaries can evaluate entrepreneurial ideas regarding their new products. Moreover, they can invest their capital to improve information about the entrepreneurial ideas and thus, meet successful entrepreneurs with a higher probability. I show that when an economy does not accumulate enough capital, and the level of financial innovation is not sufficiently high, the economy is trapped in a no-entrepreneurial innovation regime. I also show that when the financial innovation slightly develops, the economy fluctuates between the no-entrepreneurial innovation and entrepreneurial innovation regimes.     

Dual Financial Systems and Inequalities in Economic Development

This paper analyzes the emergence and the evolution of a modern banking system, in a developing economy where banks coexist with informal credit institutions. Banks have a superior ability in mobilizing savings while informal lenders enjoy a superior information on borrowers. More specifically, banks cannot observe perfectly the behavior of borrowers; therefore the latter need to provide collateral assets in order to obtain bank loans. Physical collateral is not needed to borrow in the informal credit market: informal lenders can rely on social networks to obtain information on borrowers' behavior and invoke social sanctions to enforce repayment. The sustained growth path is associated with the successful development of the banking system that gathers savings on a large scale. However, informal lenders and other traditional credit institutions are necessary in the first stage of development when collateral is scarce. In this economy, the development of modern financial intermediaries is closely associated with the accumulation of collateral assets by entrepreneurs. This implies that the initial level of development as well as the initial distribution of wealth will determine the joint evolution of the real side of the economy and the financial system. Under certain conditions, two long-run steady-state equilibria exist: in the first one the economy stops growing and the banking system never successfully develops; in the second one the economy reaches a sustained growth rate and the informal sector asymptotically vanishes. The impact of the following policies is discussed: financial repression, micro-credit institutions and redistribution of assets.     

Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics: An Open Economy Analysis

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of financial liberalization on inflation. We develop an open economy monetary endogenous growth general equilibrium model, with financial intermediaries subjected to obligatory ‘high’ reserve ratio, serving as the source of financial repression. When calibrated to four Southern European semi-industrialized countries, namely Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, which typically had high reserve requirements, the model indicates a positive inflation–financial repression relationship irrespective of the specification of preferences. But the strength of the relationship obtained from the model is found to be much smaller in size than the corresponding empirical estimates.     

Family ties and employment behavior: The role of financial intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on labor participation and employment type in China. Although existing studies examine these effects separately, we investigate the effects of both factors in one model. We give empirical evidence to support earlier arguments that family ties negatively affect labor force participation and positively affect self‐/family‐employment behavior and that financial development positively affects labor force participation. Departing from the extant literature, our results overall indicate a compensating effect of financial intermediaries for family ties in labor participation and employment type. We further argue that there are gender, urban/rural, and age differences in the role of financial intermediaries. The effect of financial intermediaries on the strength of family ties is more relevant for female, rural, and younger people compared to male, urban, and older people.     

Basel II procyclicality: The case of South Africa

This paper studies the impact of bank capital regulation on business cycle fluctuations. In particular, we study the procyclical nature of Basel II claimed in the literature. To do so, we adopt the Bernanke et al. (1999) “financial accelerator” model (BGG), to which we augment a banking sector. We first study the impact of a negative shock to entrepreneurs' net worth and a positive monetary policy shock on business cycle fluctuations. We then look at the impact of a negative net worth shock on business cycle fluctuations when the minimum capital requirement increases from 8 percent to 12 percent. Our comparison studies between the augmented BGG model with Basel I bank regulation and the one with Basel II bank regulation suggest that, in the presence of credit market frictions and bank capital regulation, the liquidity premium effect further amplifies the financial accelerator effect through the external finance premium channel, which, in turn, contributes to the amplification of Basel II procyclicality. Moreover, under Basel II bank regulation, in response to a negative net worth shock, the liquidity premium and the external finance premium rise much more if the minimum bank capital requirement increases, which, in turn, amplify the response of real variables. Finally, small adjustments in monetary policy can result in stronger response in the real economy, in the presence of Basel II bank regulation in particular, which is undesirable.