通货膨胀目标制的政策内涵及其应用

本文从分析货币政策的规则和相机抉择之争入手，分析通货膨胀目标制作为名义锚在货币政策中的作用与政策含义，在此基础上探讨如何有效地设计和实行通货膨胀目标制。本文认为，我国货币政策在向通货膨胀目标制过渡过程中，要明确货币政策和汇率政策的主从地位，增强中央银行的独立性以及对宏观经济的分析和预测能力，解决中央银行承担最后贷款人义务而造成的通货膨胀隐患，建立核心通货膨胀指标。     

货币政策目标的选择与通货膨胀目标制

在大部分国家都实行通货膨胀单一目标制的情况下,我国仍坚持多目标的货币政策框架。实行通货膨胀目标制的国家经过一段时间实践后通货膨胀的记录得到改善,我国多目标的货币目标依然冲突不断。在2008年金融危机后,我国再次选择了首要保持经济增长的货币政策,结果造成了我国2011年居高不下的通货膨胀。但由于我国正处于改革期,通货膨胀目标制并不适合我国的情况,央行要采取其他措施来锚定公众通货膨胀预期。     

我国实施通货膨胀目标制的可行性分析

通货膨胀制是一种前瞻性的货币政策,在这一政策下,中央银行不再借助传统的中介变量如货币供应量或汇率,而是基于对通货膨胀的预测来努力实现价格稳定。通过对我国现行货币政策框架进行分析,不难发现,我国的货币政策缺乏严格意义上的名义锚。虽然目前中国人民银行金融数据的取得能力己经大为提高,但宏观经济数据的可信性和及时性仍不能得到有效保证,如CPI指标不够全面,反应过于滞后等,与此同时,中国人民银行在货币政策的制定过程中,尚未运用周期性、系统性预测程序对通货膨胀等进行预测,在有条件预测建模方面仍不具备条件,因此,就我国实行通货膨胀目标制来说还是远远不够的。     

货币政策中介目标以及中国的选择

中介目标的选择对一个有效的货币政策至关重要。而决定一国货币政策中介选择的必然是一国的经济金融现实。在中国,1996年,货币供应量被正式确定为我国货币政策中介目标,但是作为中介目标的货币供应量在可测性、可控性方面存在严重缺陷。货币政策的演进趋势告诉我们,实现了规则性和灵活性高度统一的通货膨胀目标制是未来中介目标的良好选择,需要受到我们的关注,本文也对此做出详细分析。     

关于我国实施通货膨胀目标制的看法

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代开始实施的一种新型的货币政策理论框架，它在减低通货膨胀水平、稳定通货膨胀预期和经济增长、增强中央银行透明度和责任度，提高货币政策和中央银行的可信度等方面都有一定的比较优势。我国从严格意义上来讲，并不满足实施通货膨胀目标制的相关条件。但可通过对货币框架政策的调整，来逐步向通货膨胀目标制靠拢。     

通货膨胀目标制与我国的货币政策

本文通过分析我国目前以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策存在的问题引入对通货膨胀目标制的探讨,并从中央银行的独立性、货币政策目标的单一性、央行对经济的预测能力,统计数据的真实性、我国金融体系的完善程度及汇率制度等方面讨论通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性,提出了当前建立一种通贷膨胀目标和货币供应量目标共存的"混合体制"的政策主张.     

我国货币政策名义锚适用性研究

中介目标的选择对一个有效的货币政策至关重要。而决定一国货币政策名义锚选择的必然是一国的经济金融现实。在中国,1996年,货币供应量被正式确定为我国货币政策名义锚,但是作为中介目标的货币供应量在可测性、可控性方面存在严重缺陷。本文将就我国货币政策名义锚适用性做详细论述。     

通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性分析：货币错配的视角

随着经济全球化、金融一体化浪潮的兴起以及金融创新的不断推进,传统的货币政策框架日益受到冲击和挑战,近年来在许多国家已取得良好效果的通货膨胀目标制正受到越来越多的关注,很多学者认为我国也应该采取通货膨胀目标制。本文正是在这种背景下,在考察了我国货币错配现状并界定通货膨胀目标制内涵的基础上,从分析货币错配影响通货膨胀目标制实施的内在机制这一视角,结合我国特殊的国情对通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性进行了研究。     

从中间目标选择看通货膨胀目标制在当前中国的可行性

本文从货币政策中间目标的选择入手,对传统中间目标在中国的适用性以及摒弃中间目标的货币政策新框架——通货膨胀目标制在中国实施的现实可行性进行了分析,指出在当前经济形势下,引入通货膨胀目标制可以对我国货币政策的现行不足进行修正和完善,进而推动我国经济持续、平稳和健康发展。     

90年代以来我国物价走势对货币政策的挑战——兼论通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性

本文根据90年代以来的数据，从实证的角度对我国的物价水平和货币供应量之间的关系进行了考察分析，检验结果表明，我国货币供应量的周期性运动是引起物价周期性运动的原因，也就是说，货币供应量作为我国货币政策的中介目标不但没有稳定物价，反而在一定程度上造成了物价水平的周期性运动。因此，建议中国人民银行放弃把货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标，转而逐步实行通货膨胀目标制。本文还在最优货币政策框架下分析了通货膨胀目标制的特点及其实现条件，最后对我国实行通货膨胀目标制需要进行的前期准备工作提出了建议。     

加拿大通货膨胀目标制政策效果的实证分析——兼论对我国的政策启示

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代起在全球范围内兴起的一种新的货币政策框架,加拿大是其早期采用国之一。本文在对加拿大通胀目标制的主要内容作一简单介绍后,运用脉冲反应函数对此政策效应进行检验。研究结果表明,它对加拿大宏观经济运行态势的改善具有积极的政策效应:它有利于降低通货膨胀惯性、稳定通胀预期,熨平产出波动。最后,本文在结合推动我国经济发展方式转变的背景下,思考其对我国的政策启示。     

Optimal monetary policy in a currency area

This paper investigates how monetary policy should be conducted in a two-region general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness. This framework delivers a simple welfare criterion based on the utility of the consumers that can be used to evaluate monetary policy in a currency area. If the two regions share the same degree of nominal rigidity, the terms of trade are completely insulated from monetary policy and the optimal outcome is obtained by targeting a weighted average of the regional inflation rates. These weights coincide with the economic sizes of the region. If the degrees of rigidity are different, the optimal plan implies a high degree of inertia in the inflation rate. But an inflation targeting policy in which higher weight is given to the inflation in the region with higher degree of nominal rigidity is nearly optimal.     

金融机构业务活动与货币需求、货币政策

货币需求分析是货币政策的理论基础,我国银行、证券、保险机构的业务活动能从不同的方向上影响货币需求,中国货币政策的"名义锚"可以综合考虑货币供给增长率和通货膨胀率.     

Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India

The past two decades have witnessed a worldwide move by emerging markets to adopt explicit or implicit inflation targeting regimes. A notable and often discussed exception to this trend, of course, is China which follows a pegged exchange rate regime supported by capital controls. Another major exception is India. It is not clear how to characterize the monetary regime or identify the nominal monetary anchor in India. Is central bank policy in India following a predictable rule that is heavily influenced by a quasi inflation target? And how has the monetary regime been affected by the gradual process of financial liberalization in India? To address these points, we investigate monetary policy regime change in India using a Markov switching model to estimate a time-varying Taylor-type rule for the Reserve Bank of India. We find that the conduct of monetary policy over the last two decades can be characterized by two regimes, which we term ‘Hawk’ and ‘Dove.’ In the first of these two regimes, the central bank reveals a greater relative (though not absolute) weight on controlling inflation vis-à-vis narrowing the output gap. The central bank however was found to be in the “Dove” regime about half of our sample period, focusing more on the output gap and exchange rate targets to stimulate exports, rather than moderating inflation. India thus seems to be following its own direction in the conduct of monetary policy, seemingly not overly influenced by the emphasis on quasi-inflation targeting seen in many emerging markets.     

Price stability through price-level targeting or inflation targeting? A tale of two experiments

Price stability can be attained through price-level or inflation targeting. This paper compares the two monetary policy strategies from both a historical and a theoretical perspective. The Swedish experiment with price-level targeting in the 1930 occurred within a framework that lacked the accountability characteristic of New Zealand's current policy framework for inflation-targeting. Using a simple forward-looking rational expectations framework, we show that price-level targeting offers a better output-inflation variability tradeoff than inflation targeting in the forward-looking New Keynesian framework.     

Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

最优货币政策分析的一般框架理论综述

随着货币政策在宏观经济调控中的重要性日益提高,对于最优货币政策分析框架的研究也迅速兴起。从最优货币政策的目标出发,本文分析了货币政策的内涵、类型和最优货币分析框架的特征,及政策目标之间的相互关系,货币政策决策方式和几个典型的货币政策规则,特别是通货膨胀目标制及中国的最优货币政策设计,旨在为我国确立的最优货币政策框架提供参考。     

Towards adopting inflation targeting: The credibility and limitations of monetary policy under the fixed exchange system—the case of Jordan

In this paper, the interest rate pass‐through is examined within its intermediate lag of action to shed light on the credibility of monetary policy in Jordan, where the reputation of low inflation is imported through a fixed exchange rate system to the US dollar. We use time series methods which allow us to test for asymmetric adjustment. The results are compared to that of two inflation targeting countries at time proceeding building the credibility of price stability domestically: New Zealand and the UK. The empirical findings suggest that the interest rate pass‐through in Jordan is weak and slow. In addition, our results indicate the existence of non‐competitive pricing behaviour in the market. Comparing the results to the two inflation targeters, the study suggests that Jordan needs to move to a more resilient exchange rate arrangement.     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.