The dynamic causality between commodity prices,inflation and output in China: a bootstrap rolling window approach

In this article, we empirically study the time-varying bilateral causality between commodity prices, inflation and output in China. We first perform a series of parameter stability tests and find strong evidence of instability in the parameters estimated for Granger causality tests. We then use the bootstrap rolling window approach to test the causality and find that the causality from commodity prices to both inflation and output is time-varying in the entire sample period and asymmetric in different phases of the business cycle. We also find evidence of the causality from both inflation and output to commodity prices in certain sub-periods. Further discussion on the cost-price mechanism through which the economy fluctuates cyclically suggests that the dynamic causality between commodity prices and inflation contributes to understanding the nature of economic fluctuations and to forecasting economic crises. Overall, our results provide a new perspective to disentangle economic fluctuations.     

Uncovering the interrelationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets: a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the time-varying interrelationship between the housing market and the stock market in the U.S. during the period of 1890–2013, by employing a rolling window subsample with a bootstrap Granger causality test. The rolling window allows for structural changes in the economy over time. Whereas previous studies have not identified a causal relationship between the U.S. housing price index and the SP500 stock price index, this new analysis is the first to identify certain periods wherein either the wealth effect or the investment effect can be observed.     

The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples

The purpose of this study is to re-investigate the savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy using bounds testing approach to cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) – TYDL Granger causality test. This study covered the sample period from 1971:Q1 to 2008:Q4. The cointegration results suggest that the variables are moving together in the long run and the TYDL Granger causality results indicate that the relationship between savings and economic growth is bilateral. In addition, the rolling sub-samples TYDL Granger causality test exhibited a relatively stable causal relationship running from savings to economic growth in Malaysia particularly before the onset of Asian Financial Crisis in 1997/1998.     

On the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the UAE: a bootstrap approach with leveraged adjustments

The emerging market of the UAE has chosen attracting international tourism as one of the main strategies during the recent decades in order to diversify its economy. The main goal has been to achieve sustainable growth without overreliance on the volatile oil sector. This article investigates the impact of tourism on economic performance in the UAE by using bootstrapped causality tests with leverage adjustments. The results show that the tourism-led growth hypothesis can be supported empirically. Thus, the conducted policy by the UAE government to promote international tourism for achieving economic growth might be considered as a sustainable strategy.     

Financial development and economic growth nexus: A more revisionist approach

I provide extensions to Nyasha and Odhiambo regarding models of the finance—growth nexus. These models allow for heterogeneity, as well as mediation versus moderation effects of financial development. The conclusion is that useful models can be very different compared to what has been done in the literature.     

The human capital and economic growth nexus: in East and South Asia

This study adopts a disaggregated regional focus to test for the human capital (HC)-growth nexus in selected nine Asian countries. It utilizes the Empirical Bayesian methodology which addresses not only the heterogeneity issue but it also utilizes the common structural priors of regional countries to yield ‘informationally’ efficient estimates of the impact of HC on the stock and levels of GDP. Various measures of HC are utilized to determine which of these produces a better explanation of economic growth in the two Asian regions. The study finds that primary and secondary education was more prominent in explaining the fluctuations of economic growth in East Asia, whereas tertiary and vocational education showed positive effects on economic growth in South Asia. Government expenditures on education were also found to positively affect economic growth in both regions. The results shed new evidence to establish that the differences in growth rates within East and South Asia are associated with differences in educational progression in the regions.     

Revisiting the interest rate–exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach

In this paper the interest rate–exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of an interest rate defense are investigated empirically. I present a reduced form evidence which characterizes the empirical relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. I use a Markov-switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time-varying transition probabilities. Empirical evidence from six developing countries: Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, and Turkey indicates that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime. Thus, the empirical results presented here may support the view that a high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate. Unlike other studies which consider linear models only, my findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes (Asian 1997 crises, Mexico 1994 crisis, and Turkey 1994, 2001 crises). In order to explain the empirical findings, I construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating an interest rate rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002) [Jeanne, O., Rose, A.K., 2002. Noise trading and exchange rate regimes, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117 (2) 537–569]. The model has multiple equilibria, and under plausible conditions, higher exchange rate volatility is associated with higher interest rates.     

Financial development and economic growth nexus: a time-series evidence from India

This study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in India for the period 1951–52 to 1995–96. The long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic models are estimated using financial interrelations ratio and new issue ratio as the measures of financial development, a la Goldsmith (1969 Goldsmith, RW. 1969. Financial Structure and Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.  [Google Scholar]). The Johansen (1991 Johansen, S. 1991. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models’. Econometrica, 59: 1551–80. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator rejects the null of zero cointegrating vector and shows the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship between financial development and economic growth. The error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition analyses (Sims, 1980 Sims, CA. 1980. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48: 1–48. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995 Toda, HY and Yamamoto, T. 1995. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66: 225–50. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator show the presence of bidirectional Granger-causality between financial development and economic growth. The presence of bidirectional Granger-causality suggested by these estimators points towards the possible problem of endogeneity and simultaneity bias in the growth models that examine the contemporaneous effect of financial development on economic growth. The economic reforms that started since July 1991 emphasized on the liberalization and development of financial sector to supplement the efforts aimed at achieving high economic growth in India.     

The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain

This paper explores the relationship between electricity consumption, foreign direct investment, capital and economic growth in the case of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The Cobb–Douglas production is used over the period of 1980Q1–2010Q4. We have applied the ARDL bounds testing approach and found that cointegration exists among the series. Electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and capital add in economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis has exposed the feedback effect between electricity consumption and economic growth and the same is true for foreign direct investment and electricity consumption. This study suggests government authorities to explore new sources of energy to achieve sustainable economic development for the long run.     

The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence

This paper applies a two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to re-examine the causality between defense burden (MB) and real GDP (RY) for 137 countries. The findings indicate that a short-run causality running from MB to RY is found in lower-middle- and high-income countries and that from RY to MB is found in low-income countries, while bidirectional short-run causality is found in Asia, Europe, Latin America & the Caribbean and the Middle East & North Africa. No causality is found in upper-middle-income, European & Central Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries. Thus, our results do not support that one size fits all. This paper contributes important implications to the countries for making their defense policy.     

External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic polices

This paper examines the impact of external debt on economic growth in Pakistan over the period 1970–2009. The empirical exploration of the impact of external debt on growth is analyzed allowing external debt to interact with macroeconomic policy index and considering the ratio of multilateral external debt to total external debt as an additional factor in the growth regression. The empirical analysis for the impact of external debt on growth is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration. The results show that external debt has a negative impact on growth, but this adverse effect can be reduced or even reversed in the presence of sound macroeconomic policy. Secondly, it is the bilateral and not the multilateral component of the total external debt that retards growth.     

Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach

Bangladesh is the 8th largest remittance recipient country in the world and one of the heavily dependent (11 % of GDP) countries of remittances. Despite its importance in policy making in developing countries like Bangladesh, there is absence of any study regarding the effect of remittances on the level of investment. In an attempt to fill the gap, we examine the cointegrating property and stability of the relationship among these variables using the ARDL bounds testing approach combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. Our findings show that both remittances and trade openness positively and significantly influence the level of investment in Bangladesh, meaning that contrary to most conclusions found in the literature, migrant remittances in developing countries are not entirely spent in basic consumption needs. We also find that foreign aid has very little and insignificant impact on investment. Finally, we find long-run unidirectional causal relationship running from remittances to investment indicating that favorable policies to increase the flow of remittance will promote investment in Bangladesh.     

Stochastic growth: a duality approach

We re-examine the representative agent's optimal consumption and savings under uncertainty in the presence of investment constraints using martingale representation and convex analysis techniques. This framework allows us to explicitly quantify precautionary savings which induces a higher average growth rate than in a certainty setup. We provide a closed form solution for a Cobb-Douglas economy. The effect of uncertainty on portfolio selection is analyzed. Consumption growth rate and risk free interest rate exhibit a U-shaped relationship. Uncertainty negatively affects expected consumption growth rate; such a result seems to be supported by empirical evidence.     

Financial development and economic growth nexus: A rejoinder to Tsionas

Tsionas has offered a more revisionist approach to the empirics of the nexus between financial development and economic growth following our paper entitled ‘Financial development and economic growth nexus: A revisionist approach’. In the current note, we engage Tsionas’ approach in tandem with our original finance–growth nexus review. We concur with Tsionas’ approach and reiterate that the debate on the relationship between financial development and economic growth remains a complex terrain both on the theoretical and empirical fronts.     

The inequality–growth nexus in the short and long run: Empirical evidence from China

This paper argues that the conventional approach of data averaging is problematic for exploring the growth–inequality nexus. It introduces the polynomial inverse lag (PIL) framework so that the impacts of inequality on investment, education, and ultimately on growth can be measured at precisely defined time lags. Combining PIL with simultaneous systems of equations, we analyze the growth–inequality relationship in postreform China, finding that this relationship is nonlinear and is negative irrespective of time horizons. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 654–667.     

Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis

Patterns of causation between income, export, import and investment growth for 39 developing countries are examined using model selection techniques which are based on ex ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best predictive model for each country. In particular, we look at the incidence of causation and reverse causation between various economic variables which are commonly believed to lead economic growth and find that there is less reverse causation from income to these variables than previously thought. We also construct an index of global business cycle conditions and find that models of countries with high trade exposure, growth rates and investment rates tend to gain in predictive ability from the addition of this variable.     

Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Kenya for the period 1966–2005 within a quadvariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by including exports and imports as additional variables to the finance–economic growth nexus. We use four conventionally accepted proxies for financial development, namely money supply (M2), liquid liabilities (M3), domestic bank credit to the private sector and total domestic credit provided by the banking sector (all percent of GDP). Applying a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T., Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics 1995; 66; 225–250], our empirical results suggest that in three out of the four measures of financial development we found evidence of a two-way Granger causality: (1) between domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth; (2) between total domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth, and (3) between liquid liabilities and economic growth. This implies that neither the supply-leading nor the demand-following hypotheses are supported in Kenya and that economic growth and financial development are jointly determined, or they complement each other. A major implication of our finding is that financial development promotes economic growth in Kenya and that policies at enhancing the development of the financial sector can help to spur economic growth.     

The growth of university spin-offs: a dynamic panel data approach

Evidence suggests that a significant percentage of the university spin-offs (USOs) have a low growth capacity, putting in question the use of public funds to promote this kind of entrepreneurship. In addition, previous studies of the USOs’ growth have not dealt with the dynamic nature of firm growth, which might have led to questionable results. This paper analyses whether the university origin of a firm conditions its growth by applying a methodology which captures this dynamic nature of growth. Using a sample of 469 Spanish USOs and an equivalently matched group of 469 Spanish non-USOs over the period 2001–2010, we find that USOs have more growth than non-USOs, both in terms of sales and employment. In addition, the USOs’ growth is influenced by a set of determinants that differ from those of non-USOs. On the basis of the results, we propose some policies to foster the USOs.