基于报复角度的国际反倾销分析

国内外学者通过研究发现一国(地区)遭受反倾销后,有可能对别国(地区)进行报复性反倾销,这样会导致国际反倾销的日益增加。我们通过整理WTO公布的1995-2010年间的反倾销数据,从反倾销的国别或地区、行业和年份等方面进行了研究,认为:印度、美国、欧盟和阿根廷的反倾销报复能力比较强,已经成为全球反倾销的主要国家(地区),中国和韩国的反倾销报复能力比较弱,已经成为全球被反倾销的主要国家(地区)。进一步地,我们将主要反倾销国家(地区)与主要被反倾销国家(地区)之间的反倾销案件进行比较后,认为一国(地区)遭受反倾销特别是来自于主要反倾销国家(地区)的反倾销时,若没有进行有效的反倾销报复,其他国家(地区)也会加入对该国(地区)的反倾销队伍中来,使其面临更多的反倾销。     

Effects of aid for trade on extensive and intensive margins of greenfield FDI

Using a panel dataset of 105 developing countries for the period 2003–15, this paper assesses the effects of Aid for Trade (AfT) on greenfield FDI flows to the aid‐recipient countries. Particularly, this paper classifies the total dollar value of greenfield FDI flows to each recipient country in terms of four different layers: the extensive and intensive margins of projects as well as the extensive and intensive margins of source countries. Applying the system GMM estimator, this paper finds that AfT not only increases the dollar value of FDI flows to the recipient countries but also helps diversify the greenfield projects and source countries. In addition, this paper finds that AfT has a greater effect for greenfield FDI from donor (developed) countries than from non‐donor (developing) countries. Among the three components of AfT, aid for trade‐related infrastructure and aid for trade policy regulations are found to have positive links with greenfield FDI, irrespective of source‐country groups, yet their effects are larger for developed source countries. In contrast, aid for building productive capacity hinders greenfield FDI flows from non‐donor countries, while it promotes greenfield FDI from donor countries. We offer some explanations for this finding.     

Bribery in International Business in Post-Soviet Union Countries

Data from 1996 to 2016 on perceived levels of bribe taking in 15 post-Soviet Union countries indicate three distinct groups—Russia and seven contiguous countries are most prone to bribe taking, a set of four countries in the southwest less so, and the three Baltic nations are the least corrupt. Public officials in countries that have high economic freedom and human development, are democracies, and proactively adhere to global anti-bribery treaties are less likely to take bribes. The findings show that despite a common recent history, the countries have evolved differently following the breakup. Implications for international businesses are discussed.     

Technology-investing countries and stock return predictability

For 77 technology-investing countries we test whether their stock market returns are predictable. We find that exchange rate returns and U.S. stock excess returns predict stock market returns for most countries in our sample, while crude oil and inflation predict returns of less than 40% of countries. While in out-of-sample tests the evidence of predictability declines, U.S. returns still beat the constant returns model for three-quarters of countries in our sample. A portfolio of all 77 countries offers a mean-variance investor annualized profits of between 5.7% and 8.0%, and profits are maximized when return forecasts are based on U.S. returns.     

Effects of the preference for environmental quality on the export competition between China and OECD countries

This study examines how importers’ preferences for environmentally friendly products influence the effect of China’s export growth on the exports of OECD countries to third markets. The effect of China’s export growth is systematically investigated using the theoretical gravity model, which assumes that importers’ environmental preferences are heterogeneous among countries. A new measure is also proposed to represent importers’ revealed preferences for environmental quality across countries. Panel data consisting of observations for 30 OECD exporting countries and 60 importing countries over the 2000–10 period confirm that the crowding‐out effect of China’s export growth on the exports of OECD countries observed in markets for consumption goods and the dampening effect observed in markets for intermediate goods are becoming weaker as the importer preference for environmental quality becomes stronger.     

Financing the global environment

The international coordination of environmental protection is particularly difficult with regard to developing countries. How can the industrialized countries be persuaded that financial compensation to the developing countries is economically justified? How can external support for the developing countries be organized so that the incentives for environmental protection are strengthened effectively?     

Designing a Country Marketing Function:

Most governments of developing and industrialized countries are in the market for foreign direct investment. Indeed, in the case of developing countries, new entrants to this market are constantly emerging. This paper reports on a study that examines the generic structures governments have adopted in their efforts to promote their countries as sites for foreign direct investment. It pays special attention to the question of whether promotional functions do, or should, differ in structural form based upon the size of the country seeking to attract additional investment. The study concludes that, contrary to existing research, country size does have an impact on the type of generic promotional structure adopted. Larger countries tend to adopt decentralized or coordinated promotional structures, whereas smaller countries tend to rely on centralized promotional structures. Although centralized structures tend to be more efficient, larger countries are forced by regional pressures to include multiple organizations in their promotional activities. The study argues that given the type of investment likely to be attracted to larger countries, diffusion of the promotional function is an appropriate structural response. But, when this diffused function is coordinated countries are likely to gain the benefits of promotional efficiency while allowing for the involvement of regional entities.     

Distributional Consequences of Globalization: Is Organization of the Islamic Conference Countries Different?

This article investigates distributional effects of globalization using new comparable panel data for Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and non-OIC developing countries from 1965 to 2010. The results show that the Kuznets Curve does not exist in OIC countries, while it holds in non-OIC countries. International trade tends to widen income inequality in OIC countries while it helps to ameliorate inequalities in non-OIC countries. Financial development decreases inequality only in OIC countries. The study concludes that OIC countries are different from non-OIC countries in their exposure to globalization.     

What factors explain stock market retardation in Islamic Countries

Stock markets have been recognized in literature as a source of financial development and economic growth. Notwithstanding the recent trend of the stock market development in emerging countries, some argue that Islamic countries' stock exchanges are still infantile. The central aim of this research, therefore, is to investigate factors impeding stock market development (SMD) in Islamic countries. We explore a panel annual data of 11 main Islamic countries vis-à-vis the developed countries for the period of 1996–2011. The findings show that all of our concerned macroeconomic determinants play a major role in the developed countries. On the other hand, financial openness has substantially less contribution in Islamic countries, while the financial intermediary development plays a major role. The results are also indicative of the need for the Islamic countries to improve their legal environment and economic freedom. Lastly, we also attempt to measure the integration level, where the findings tend to indicate a relatively lower and unstable pattern of integration for the Islamic countries, suggesting the impact of volatile inflows.     

WTO人类生命与健康权争端中证明标准的新发展——以维护发展中国家的利益为视角

随着经济全球化的发展,发展中国家正面临着远比发达国家更严峻的人类生命与健康问题。专家组在涉及人类生命与健康争端审理中,逐渐确立了一些严格的证明标准,大大增加了发展中国家胜诉的难度,为发达国家借口干涉发展中国家的主权和人权提供了机会。可喜的是,专家组和上诉机构在最近的涉及人类生命与健康的案件中的证明标准方面,开始关注成员国的主权和人权问题,适当增加了申诉方的证明责任,降低了被诉方(多数为发展中国家成员)的证明标准,为发展中国家在相关争端中据理力争提供了理论和判例依据。中国应该充分利用涉及人类生命与健康争端中证明标准的新发展,切实保护好自己的主权和人权。     

The impact of international trade on emigration in developing countries

This paper studies how international trade affects emigration in developing countries. This is a new aspect as previous studies investigated the impact of immigration on trade from host countries perspective. However, there are also reasons to believe that trade may affect the propensity to emigrate in the home countries, leading to potential brain drain in developing countries, especially given the theoretical hypothesis in Stolper–Samuelson (S–S) theorem within Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) factor-proportion model that more educated workers are more likely to emigrate due to an increase in international trade. When low-skill abundant developing countries liberalize trade, the reward of the scarce factor (skilled labor) is reduced in these countries, but it increases in the high-skill abundant developed countries. Therefore, skilled workers in the developing countries see a strong incentive to migrate to developed countries. To test this hypothesis, this paper utilizes a panel of 133 developing countries for the period of 1980–2010 and finds that high-skilled workers are more likely to emigrate with trade while there appears to be no effect of trade on low-skilled workers.     

Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets

This paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries. Two sources of increased co-movement in asset returns are considered: (i) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-country linkages and (ii) changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries, referred to as “shift-contagion”. To examine this issue, we develop a method for detecting shift-contagion with three notable features. First, parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks. Second, the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned. Third, the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis. We apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging-market countries.     

Key countries in the Third World

Present classifications of the developing countries are of limited usefulness as a basis for determining development policy priorities in the industrialised countries, argue our authors. They define a group of “key countries” which are of strategical importance for the world economy and outline the development risks facing these countries.¹ They suggest that the OECD countries would be better advised to follow a policy of cooperation with these key countries rather than the “man mind thyself” policies which are presently gaining in popularity.     

Voluntary Cooperation in Terms of International Financial Supervision

This article analyzes the issue of voluntary cooperation in terms of international financial supervision. A simple modeling framework is provided where financial supervision is an international public good and thus may be underprovided globally. The article asks a simple question: would national supervisors cooperate and increase the level of global supervision, and by how much? I use coalition formation game theory to address this question. The main results are the following. If the situation is completely symmetric (identical‐sized countries and symmetric externalities), the amount of cooperation is relatively high and full cooperation could be achieved for particular numbers of countries involved in the negotiations. However, in general, full cooperation would not be an equilibrium because countries have incentives to free ride on the cooperation of other countries. Introducing asymmetries in the size of the countries and/or in the externalities between countries reduces the scope for cooperation. However, higher asymmetries are not necessarily related to lower cooperation if the distribution of asymmetries has a particular shape, such that big countries are generating large externalities on small countries, as it might be the case in reality.     

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?

Trade intensity increases the business cycle co-movement among industrial countries. Using annual information for 147 countries for the period 1960-99 we find that the impact of trade intensity on business cycle correlation among developing countries is positive and significant, but substantially smaller than that among industrial countries. Our findings suggest that differences in the responsiveness of cycle synchronization to trade integration between industrial and developing countries are explained by differences in the patterns of specialization and bilateral trade.     

Trade policy in developing countries

Development institutions are currently revising their traditional positions on the question of adequate trade policies for developing countries. Against this background the following article takes stock of the degree to which developing countries have become integrated into the world economy and considers the opportunities and risks which the integration process presents. Problems confronting national policies in less successful developing countries are then outlined which make further, efficient integration of these countries into the world economy more difficult. Finally, policies are identified which could ease further integration.     

产品评价的来源国分解效应:欠发达国家视角

出于不同的目的,无论是发达国家还是欠发达国家,都呈现出产品来源国分解的趋势。以往的研究表明,发达国家为了降低成本将生产转移到欠发达国家,而欠发达国家的消极形象并未降低消费者对产品的评价;当欠发达国家为了提高消费者对产品的评价而利用发达国家的技术和设计时,结果却并不理想。为此,文章引入混合产品的解释机制,着重从欠发达国家视角探讨来源国分解效应。通过实验发现:欠发达国家产品来源国分解后,在一般情况下,由于消费者启动的是关系解释而不会改变对产品的评价,当启动属性解释时,有助于提高消费者对产品的评价;而对欠发达国家本国的消费者而言,则无论是否启动属性解释,对产品的评价都会显著提高。     

Diaspora and Development

Jagdish Bhagwati's proposal for a ‘brains tax’ to be levied on the incomes of the diaspora from developing countries residing in the developed countries and the proceeds to be remitted to the countries of origin of the diaspora is well known. In recent years the voluntary contributions or remittances from the diaspora to their countries of origin have often been higher than the aid monies given to these countries. It is now increasingly recognised that the diaspora may have an active role to play in the development process of their countries of origin. They are not only a source of funds; they are also a rich source of skills and know‐how. This paper analyses the potential of the diaspora as agents of change in their countries of origin and argues that the social rate of return to a unit of diaspora investments may be higher than that for a unit of foreign direct investment from non‐diaspora sources.     

Is the R&;D behaviour of fast-growing SMEs different? Evidence from CIS III data for 16 countries

This paper studies the R&;D behaviour of fast growing SMEs using CIS III data for 16 countries. We group the countries into three categories of countries having roughly the same stage of technological development. Our first finding is that R&;D is more important to high-growth SMEs in countries that are closer to the technological frontier. The second finding is that high-growth SMEs are only more innovative than non-high-growth SMEs in countries close to the technological frontier. This suggests that gazelles derive much of their drive from the exploitation of comparative advantages. From a policy perspective, this indicates that there are important limits to centralising policies that aim to foster high-growth SMEs.