我国地方政府债务风险问题研究

地方政府债务风险是政府债务风险的重要组成部分,是地方财政风险的集中表现.我国地方政府债务风险问题已经引起了人们的广泛关位.本文从地方政府债务的涵义出发,指出了我国地方政府债务风险的涵义、特点和表现形式,从经济体制、财政体制和债务管理三个侧面分析了我国地方政府债务风险的形成机理,并从体制改革和管理改革两个方面,提出了防范和化解风险的方法建议.     

地方政府或有负债分析与风险防范

或有负债是财政风险的核心内容之一,正确认识或有负债是有效控制财政风险的关键.本文将政府作为一个经济主体来看待,从经济学角度分析了地方或有负债的内涵、演化机理及其负面效用,进而阐述了防范和化解地方政府或有负债风险的对策、建议.     

基于资产负债分析的地方政府债务风险测算研究

地方政府控制的可用于偿还债务的资产及其收益是地方政府债务得以顺利清偿的保证,地方政府债务风险呈现了资不抵债和无力支付情况而发生债务违约的可能性。本文对2010-2017年我国地方政府债务风险测算和评估的结果表明,地方政府资产负债杠杆率在上升、可偿债资产的收益率在下滑;在计入养老金缺口情况下,借款融资结构变化对地方政府债务风险存在显著影响。因此,只有地方政府实际承担的养老金缺口现值少于24万亿元,地方政府债务风险才能处于可控的范围之内。     

企业型政府论视角下我国地方财政风险状况探究

企业型政府论的产生和发展既是对数十年来行政管理理论和实践的检讨与反思,也是对新时代、新环境的自觉调适。它是21世纪大势所趋,各国政府公共管理体制变革的必然选择。财政是政府实现其职能的重要手段和经济基础,目前我国财政状况相当严峻,地方财政风险状况凸显。利用企业型政府论的精神要领和方法来从机制上理清思路,是探究解决地方财政风险问题的重大尝试。建议从宏观、中观、微观三个机制层面探究化解地方财政风险状况的方法措施。     

企业型政府论视角下我国地方财政风险状况探究

企业型政府论的产生和发展既是对数十年来行政管理理论和实践的检讨与反思,也是对新时代、新环境的自觉调适。它是21世纪大势所趋,各国政府公共管理体制变革的必然选择。财政是政府实现其职能的重要手段和经济基础,目前我国财政状况相当严峻,地方财政风险状况凸显。利用企业型政府论的精神要领和方法来从机制上理清思路,是探究解决地方财政风险问题的重大尝试。建议从宏观、中观、微观三个机制层面探究化解地方财政风险状况的方法措施。     

中国企业海外资产的政治风险分析

世界政局风云变幻,政治风险是我国企业海外资产面临的首当其冲的风险。文章分析了我国企业海外资产面临的政治风险的结构,探讨了导致我国企业海外资产面临政治风险的因素,提出从企业角度,要加强企业内部政治风险管理,建立一整套政治风险的评估,预防和救济体系;从政府角度,要正确引导企业到海外投资,完善海外投资保险制度等对策和建议。     

An Analysis of Political Risks of Chinese Enterprises＇ Overseas Assets

世界政局风云变幻,政治风险是我国企业海外资产面临的首当其冲的风险文章分析了我国企业海外资产面临的政治风险的结构,探讨了字致我国企业海外资产面临政治风险的因素,提出从企业角度,要加强企业内部政治风险管理,建立一整套政治风险的评估,预防和救济体系;从政府角度,要正确引导企业到海外投资,完善海外投资保险制度等对策和建议。     

关于政府债务风险及其评估的文献综述

我国《预算法》第二十八条规定:"除法律和国务院另有规定外,地方政府不得发行地方政府债券。"但是,我国政府债务近几十年来急剧攀升,特别是地方政府财政隐患巨大,面临着入不敷出的难题,存在着很高的债务风险。     

地方政府融资平台风险原因分析及防范

地方政府融资平台的迅速发展满足了地方政府的资金需求。与此同时,平台的迅速扩张也带了金融风险、财政风险,加剧了国民经济结构矛盾。究其原因,主要是我国地方政府财权与事权不匹配,地方政府融资与破产制度不完善,商业银行和融资平台的管理存在缺陷。要对地方政府融资平台的风险进行防范,应当从完善财政制度和平台管理,加强平台监督,拓宽融资渠道入手。     

论地方政府或有负债

近年来,政府或有负债越来越引起人们的关注,但理论界研究更多的是全国性或中央政府的或有负债,对于地方政府的或有负债(指省级政府),因种种原因研究得不多.可是,我国地方政府的或有负债问题越来越严重,不仅成因非常复杂,而且估计规模日益膨胀,财政风险累积.本文试图从地方政府或有负债的内涵、成因、量化方法、风险预警指标等方面,构建研究地方政府或有负债的基本分析框架.     

Financial Liberalisation and the South Korean Financial Crisis: An Analysis of Expert Opinion

This paper provides a novel analysis of the South Korean financial crisis drawing on the findings of a unique survey of IMF/World Bank and South Korean experts. The survey reveals that over‐optimism and inadequate recognition of financial risks inadvertently led to excessive risk‐taking by Korean financial intermediaries. It also indicates that the sources of over‐optimistic assessments of East Asian economies were mainly to be found outside East Asia and included the Bretton Woods Institutions themselves, Western media and analysts. In Korea, weaknesses in risk management were the result of (i) lack of expertise in relation to handling the risks associated with capital flows, and (ii) disincentives to manage risks emanating from a relatively successful history of government‐provided safety nets for both industry and banking. Financial liberalisation widened risk‐taking opportunities, by allowing Korean financial institutions to both borrow from and lend to institutions outside Korea. It also created additional disincentives for managing risk by intensifying competition and eroding bank franchise values. Weaknesses in prudential regulation allowed bank portfolios to become riskier, especially in terms of increased liquidity risk as a result of maturity mismatches between dollar‐denominated assets and liabilities. The liquidity crisis, which followed the re‐assessment of the South Korean economy by international lenders in late 1997, triggered a full‐blown financial crisis because of the absence of an effective international lender of last resort.     

政府融资平台的经济效应与风险防范

近些年来我国地方政府融资平台发展迅速,平台数量和贷款规模均呈现较快增长态势,其在应对国际金融危机冲击、促进地方经济发展的过程中发挥了重要的积极作用。但是,由于外部体制不顺、内部运营不规范等综合原因,地方政府融资平台面临着法律风险、财政风险和金融风险等诸多挑战。在改革和完善融资平台建设的过程中需要各项政策多管齐下,积极探索和发展地方政府融资的替代渠道,加快现有平台企业的清理整顿和规范发展,尽快建立系统科学的风险预警机制和信用评级制度。     

ON SURRENDER AND DEFAULT RISKS

This paper examines certain types of saving institutions or insurance companies that are subject to surrender and default risks, in a stochastic interest rate context. In the setting under study, investors are endowed with an option to surrender. The goal of the paper is to study how this option impacts the default risk of the issuing company and the value of the contracts it issues. Surrender risk has been extensively studied in arbitrated markets, using trees or least‐squares Monte Carlo methods for valuations, although practitioners often rely on econometric methods. We deal with surrender risk in a third way, assuming policyholders have sets of information and preferences that differ from those of financial market agents, but without relying on econometric methods. In particular, policyholders are supposed to be only partially rational (at least in the financial sense). This is done by modeling surrender risk through a Cox process correlated to the assets and interest rate dynamics. The paper provides formulas for the dynamics of the assets of the issuing firm (these dynamics drive the default time of the company), and for the valuation of liabilities and equity. A numerical illustration is provided.     

涉税风险防控主导的企业财务报表分析实践探索

随着一系列减税降费政策的出台,国家的税收监管力度加大。虽然财务报表是税收风险评估的重要资料,然而传统的企业财务报表分析工作却不能发现隐含的涉税风险,应对涉税风险防控主导的财务报表分析实践加以探索。在分析我国企业主要税种的计税依据的基础上,从收入、费用、利润、资产、负债和所有者权益六要素的角度,分析相关财务报表分析指标的数量特征和指标组合的配比关系,揭示可能产生的涉税风险,构建了基于财务报表分析的涉税风险防控思维和实践体系,并进一步提出完善企业涉税风险防控的思路,以期为企业的风控建设提供参考。     

借助会计核算理性分析政府或有负债

政府或有负债的大量形成,会加大各级财政的负担,影响国民经济运行的稳定性和财政发展的可持续性。因此借鉴会计核算,尽可能的量化政府或有负债的规模和转化的政府直接支出责任,有助于我们正确地了解、评价和及时地防范或有负债可能引致的财政风险。     

审核待购企业资产负债表

收购企业是一项机会和风险都很大的市场活动。要想尽量降低收购企业的风险,必须仔细核查资产负债表,以便准确了解企业的财务状况,消除账目中的虚假成分,确定企业资产的真正净值,及时识破产权转让中可能出现的欺诈行为。针对收购企业面临的一些实际问题,探索货币资金、应收账款、应收借款、存货、预付款、固定资产、负债和已缴资本等方面的核查重点,以及相应的方法和对策。     

基于风险预算的新疆居民家庭金融资产的风险资产配置

通过对新疆2013-2017年的居民家庭金融总资产以及投资和储蓄的分析,从宏观的家庭金融资产视角使用Markowitz的投资组合的均值-方差模型在风算预算的基础上,进一步计算出实际新疆居民每年应当用于储蓄或者用于投资与固定风险和较大风险的比例,即得出风险资产的配置,从而提高新疆居民的储蓄向投资的转化,加强居民金融资产的管理和风险资产的分配,提高居民的风险收益,为新疆居民家庭获取更多金融资产投资于风险性收入提供更好的政策建议。     

A martingale representation theorem and valuation of defaultable securities

We consider a financial framework with two levels of information: the public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can represent many economic and financial settings, such as the default time of a firm for credit risk, and the death time of an insured for life insurance. As the random time cannot be seen before its occurrence, the progressive enlargement of filtration seems tailor‐fit to model the larger flow of information that incorporates both the public flow and the information about the random time. In this context, our interest focuses on the following challenges: (a) How to single out the various risks coming from the financial assets, the random time, and their correlations? (b) How these risks interplay and lead to the formation of any risk in the larger flow of information? It is clear that understanding how risks build‐up and interact, when one enlarges the flow of information, is vital for an efficient risk management and derivatives' evaluation in those informational markets. Our answers to these challenges are full and complete no matter what the model for the random time is and no matter how the random time is related to the public flow. In fact, we introduce “pure default” risks, and quantify and classify these risks afterward. Then we elaborate our martingale representation results, which state that any martingale in the large filtration stopped at the random time can be decomposed into orthogonal local martingales (i.e., local martingales whose product remains a local martingale). This constitutes our first principal contribution, while our second contribution consists in evaluating various defaultable securities according to the recovery policy, within our financial setting that encompasses any default model, using a martingale “basis.” Our pricing formulas explain the impact of various recovery policies on securities and determine the types of pure default risk they entail.     

地方政府发行公债存在的风险及对策

中国政府为了促进经济的发展,已于2009年发行了2000亿地方政府债券,地方政府发行公债的过程中一定会面对各种各样的风险。本文主要介绍了发行过程中遇到的各种风险以及风险成因,并提出了降低地方政府发行公债风险的对策建议,希望对我国地方公债的风险研究有一定的推动作用。     

Local currency systemic risk

Emerging country governments increasingly issue local currency denominated bonds and foreign investors have been increasing their holdings of these assets. By issuing debt denominated in local currency, emerging country governments eliminate exchange rate risk. The growing stock of local currency government debt in the financial portfolios of foreign investors increases their diversification and exposure to fast growing economies. In this paper, we highlight some of the risks associated to this recent trend. First, we adopt the CoV aR risk-measure to estimate the vulnerability of individual countries to systemic risk in the market for local currency government debt. Second, we show that our country-level estimates of vulnerability increase with the share of local currency debt held by foreign investors. A version of the old adage “When New York sneezes, London catches a cold,” used often to describe the relationship between the stock markets in these two cities, still applies between individual emerging countries and the aggregate market for local currency government debt.