US trade policy in an unbalanced world economy

Both the national as well as the international debate on US trade policy are overshadowed, and strongly influenced, by the large external inbalances of major trading nations. What do these disequilibria mean for US trade policy? Moreover, is the USA losing comparative advantage in agriculture and high-technology manufacturing? Do industrial policies in other countries distort American trade?     

Reaganomics and the world economy

The upswing in the US economy, which has long since surpassed all expectations, has undoubtedly been a great success for the economic policy embarked upon by President Reagan. But has the treatment which has done the USA so much good also been good for the rest of the world? American observers always draw attention to the import boom, whilst overseas commentators are more concerned with the worldwide effects of the USA's very high interest rates.     

Upswing in the world economy

The world economy gained distinct momentum last year. Following North America, the forces for growth have now prevailed in Western Europe and the Japanese economy has also picked up. Real gross domestic product in the industrial countries rose faster than expected at 3%. Will this upward trend keep going, as it must to alleviate unemployment?     

Trade and imperfect competition in general equilibrium

This paper employs a multi-industry general equilibrium model of oligopolistic competition, free market entry and trade in which capital is used to establish firms and labor is used for production. We show that both absolute and relative endowments matter for the pattern of trade. We demonstrate that market entry to each industry is either too excessive or too moderate while the effect on firm size is ambiguous. If countries are sufficiently symmetric, trade will increase the wage–rental ratio in both countries. Furthermore, trade will increase per-capita consumption in capital-intensive industries and reduce it in labor-intensive industries. Nevertheless, trade will be mutually welfare-improving under relatively mild conditions.     

Marked recovery in the world economy

With expansion accelerating strongly since last summer, the world economy has overcome an extended period of weakness. The USA, driven by highly expansive fiscal policies, is once again proving to be an important locomotive for global economic development. The strong fiscal stimulus will diminish sharply this year, however. Can the recovery continue nonetheless? This is of importance for the euro area in particular, where exports have so far been the primary foundation of economic resurgence. Is the substantial appreciation of the euro jeopardising prospects of catching up with the rest of the world?     

Continued growth in the world economy

After the stock market crash in the autumn of 1987 even optimists were predicting a sharp slowdown in the growth of the world economy in 1988. In the event, the GNP of the industrialised countries increased by 4% in real terms last year. What is the outlook for 1989?     

No momentum in the world economy

The upswing in the world economy has lost momentum surprisingly fast. A slowdown in growth in North America had been expected, but the budding hopes in Japan and Western Europe for a continued recovery in utilisation of capacity and employment were disappointed. Are there grounds for such hopes in 1996 or have the structural constraints on growth now become so powerful as to prevent a more significant economic revival?     

Lasting recovery in the world economy

Economic recovery has returned to the industrial countries as a whole. However, expansion is moderate. In continental Europe, utilisation of capacity is still below the long-term average. In Japan, under-utilisation of capacity is even more pronounced. At the same time, unemployment has remained high. Elsewhere, though, and particularly in the USA, resources have been exploited to a high degree. Here too, however, wage and price increases remained moderate. Economic convergence is accompanied by a convergence of economic policy—not just in those countries striving to take part in the European Monetary Union. In view of this, how good are the prospects for economic development and for employment in the coming year?     

The petrodollars and the world economy

The quadrupling of the oil price by the OPEC in 1973 was a poignant event in the post-war development of the world economy. Which measures and mechanisms conduced to the international income redistribution necessitated by the hoisting of the oil prices in the past five years?     

Hesitant recovery in the world economy

So far there has been no far-reaching recovery in the world economy. While the recession of 2001 was overcome at the beginning of last year, demand and output growth has been restrained in spite of expansive economic policies. This is partly due to a mood of great uncertainty, caused not least by geopolitical tensions and declining confidence on the financial markets. Will the dampening effect of these factors ebb away this year and so lead to a marked upward trend in the world economy?     

Trends towards regionalism in the world economy

The world economy has for some time been characterised by a growing generalised trend towards regionalism. This is often considered to be on a par with the formation of blocs, fragmentation of the trading system and a relapse into the disastrous conditions of the thirties. However, if regionalism is understood not as a defensive or aggressive policy of bloc building, as in the thirties, but as a regional grouping that is open towards the world economy, it appears to have something to offer as an alternative to the old international economic order.