美国石油贸易变化趋势及其对全球的影响

近年来美国石油贸易格局发生了重要演变,主要体现在两个方面:一是原油进口量总体呈下降趋势,对外依存度大幅下滑,同时,原油进口来源发生重要变化;二是2011年美国出现60年来首次油品净出口,2012年以来油品净出口量进一步增加.美国石油贸易结构的变化趋势将对全球石油贸易格局产生重要影响,为全球其他主要石油消费国获取原油资源腾出更多空间,同时使油品出口导向型国家或地区面临更大挑战,也增加了中国主要石油公司海外炼厂开拓市场的难度.美国能源自给率提高为其他石油消费国的能源独立和能源安全提供了参考和借鉴.     

Korean telecom policy in global competition: implications for developing countries

United States efforts to open the Korean telecommunications market have been incessant and tenacious, to the extent that Korea is the only country to be twice designated by the US as a priority foreign country (PFC). Through major restructuring driven by the Korean government, the telecommunications infrastructure of Korea has been strengthened and expanded, and in the process has posed a threat to the US telecommunications industry. Thus, since the late 1980s, the Korean telecommunications industry has been monitored and threatened with trade sanctions by the United States Trade Representative, and all internal restructuring has been closely related to bilateral negotiations with the US, and multilateral negotiations in the Uruguay Round. Based on interviews with key Korean telecommunications personnel and analyses of public documents, this research examines the Korean telecommunications market, telecommunications policies relative to the US and WTO, and the recent economic crisis that has affected the stability of the industry. The paper also offers five major recommendations to government and industry policymakers, including a more active and positive stance toward liberalisation, the relinquishing by bureaucrats of their monopolistic power over policymaking, the securing of an open and transparent policymaking process, and, in relations with the US, and the mobilisation of regional and multilateral organisations to ensure fair competition in telecommunications.     

奥巴马“中东新政”影响分析

在中东北非动荡局势愈演愈烈、奥巴马总统支持率不断下降和美国量化宽松政策作用不如预期的背景下,奥巴马推出了美国对中东的新政策。＂中东新政＂的核心内容有：支持中东北非民主运动与政治改革;区别对待动荡国家;加大对重建民主国家的经济援助,支持中东地区的民主化运动;承认1967年巴以边界线。美国调整中东策略,旨在通过民主化运动实现疏美政权的和平演变;美国继续对中东北非地区推行双重标准,可实现美国在该地区利益的最大化。推出＂中东新政＂是美国国内政治和经济形势发展的需要,它可能引发新一轮示威活动,导致动荡局势向其他国家和地区蔓延,进而引发世界对石油供应的担忧和油价的上升。同时,＂中东新政＂可抑制日、欧和新兴经济体的经济发展,有利于美国继续加强和巩固其金融主导地位。当前,中国石油企业的海外油气合作正进入政治风险高发期,为此,企业应加强风险预警研究,构建战略层面的风险预警机制;把握合作机会和主动权。     

Estimating Market Power in the US Copper Industry

Before 1978, most of the domestic copper production in the US and an important share of imports were traded at a price set by the major US producers. At the same time, the rest of the world was trading copper at prices determined in auction markets. This two-price system ended in 1978, when the largest US producers began using the Comex price of refined copper as a benchmark for setting their prices. Using this regime shift, I empirically test the competitive behavior of the US copper industry before 1978. The results show that copper prices were close to the levels predicted by a competitive model of the industry.     

Price convergence in contestable market structures: The impact of time and price-caps on intercity telecommunications rates

In this study, we tested if long-distance rates among AT&T, MCI, and US Sprint between New York City and six major SMSAs during 1980–91 have converged. Empirical findings show that rates have converged over time, that rate ratios or differences increased under price cap, and that distance does not have any impact on rate convergence. The variables of TIME and price cap (CAP) have greater impacts on rate convergence for AT&T/US Sprint than AT&T/MCI. Regression results based on pooled cross-section and time-series data yield better results.     

Digital divide or digital opportunity in the Mississippi Delta region of the US

This study analyzes the interdependence of telecommunications manufacturing, services, and user industries in the Mississippi Delta region of the US to understand the social and economic prospects of poorer rural areas of the US as advanced technologies rapidly proliferate. An underlying assumption is that telecommunications industries should not be viewed only by the employment they directly support; they should also be analyzed in terms of their linkages to other industries and how those linkages influence the competitiveness and growth prospects of businesses and public institutions in the region by building a capable community of technology users. The absence of leading telecom manufacturing and service firms in rural Delta counties together with low levels of connectivity suggest that digital divide problems are very real for the region. The central economic development challenge should be to ensure that rural businesses, government, health care, education, and non-profit institutions gain access to an advanced telecommunications infrastructure and that they develop the capacity to leverage this access to enhance their performance and expand their reach.     

Multivariate and geospatial analysis of technology utilization in US counties

We examine geographic patterns and socio-economic and social capital correlates of the adoption and utilization of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in 3,108 counties of the United States. Access and use of ICTs are found to vary significantly among counties in metropolitan, micropolitan, and rural parts of the country. Clusters of high, moderate, and low ICT utilization counties are characterized by geodemographic and socio-economic attributes. Regression findings indicate that young dependency ratio, college education, working age population, and race and ethnic variables are major correlates of ICT use. We analyze and explain novel findings on associations of income, ethnicity, and social capital variables with ICT usage in light of the technology-use landscape in the US. Spatial bias and large sample size fallacy issues are addressed and policy recommendations to remediate the digital divide in US counties are provided.     

Personal computers and society

The University of Southern California (USC) has initiated a technology assessment of the personal computer, partially supported by the US National Science Foundation. The ultimate purpose of a technology assessment is to help provide a more human future with less of a shock. The technology assessment at USC is directed towards examining the potential impacts of personal computers and identifying the public policy issues associated with these possibilities. This report explains the major factors being explored during the assessment.     

The three US food policies: An ideological interpretation

Historically, and notably so since 1933, three ideologies have been evident, and in conflict, in the farmfood policies of the USA. The gradual transformation of US agriculture since World War II into an agribusiness industry, and into the dominant world food exporter, has necessitated the modernising of these three ideologies. How the new food politics of the Carter Administration will differ from those of the Nixon-Ford Administration is of worldwide concern. Whether the new food policy ‘agenda’ will be aggressively committed to the development of a neo-Jeffersonian food ideology will be a major US political issue in 1977.     

Selection of standards for digital television: The battle for Latin America

This paper analyses the implementation of Terrestrial Digital Technology (TDT) standards in Latin America. The analysis suggests that while some governments have chosen the standard attending to their industrial objectives, others have been influenced by the relevance of network externalities and scale economies and by the political and commercial relationship with their neighbours. The discussion about the technical characteristics of the systems was only relevant in the first years of the process, when the leading countries of the region had still not made their selection. Brazil decided to create its own version of the Japanese ISDB standard in 2006, and in the following years it has persuaded a significant part of the continent to choose it. Another block of countries has adopted the US ATSC standard. The most prominent case is that of Mexico, which has a preferential access to the US market. Only three countries have chosen the European DVB standard, the most widely used standard in the world. Colombia has tried to lead its introduction in the continent, but the results so far have been meagre.     

Dietary habits,demographics, and the development of overweight and obesity among children in the United States

This study uses a multinomial logistic regression and data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) to examine the factors that influence overweight and obesity among school-age children in the United States. Results show that Black and Hispanic children seem to associate more with the development of at risk for being overweight and overweight. Poverty is another major variable that positively associates with overweight among school-age children. Frequency of physical exercises was found to be positively associated with normal weight and that sedentary behavior was negatively associated with normal weight and positively associated with overweight among children of ages between 12 and 18. The consumption of low fat milk, other dairy products, fruits and legumes is negatively associated with the probabilities of being at risk for overweight and overweight among school-age children. In contrast, increasing consumption of soft drinks, fat and oils, and sodium appears to be the major dietary factors that positively associated with childhood overweight.     

Interactive cable TV — three studies

The US National Science Foundation sponsored three major trials of interactive cable television. Reports evaluating these trials have been published, and edited versions of the Executive Summaries are presented here. Further information on the studies may be obtained from the research organizations.     

The domestic determinants of US food aid policy

This study presents empirical analysis of US food aid flows as evidence of the strong and stable relationship between commodity producer interests and policy-makers during a 35 yr period. Whereas most foreign aid research centers on the distribution of aid among recipient countries, this study focuses on the determinants of the supply of food aid made available by the donor country. I conduct time series regression analysis of total US food aid shipments, as well as separate analyses of two key commodities, wheat and rice. Several key findings emerge: (1) There is a consistent relationship between commodity producer interests and US food aid policy. (2) There is a strong relationship between commodity stocks and food aid shipments, especially during the years when stocks were the greatest. (3) US food aid policy-making is highly incremental. These findings, taken together with the lack of a strong relationship between grain production in poor countries and US food aid shipments, belie official rhetoric emphasizing the growing humanitarian objectives of the program over time. In the case of rice, I find a strong relationship between aid flows and US involvement in the Vietnam War.     

Gone in 60 Seconds: The Impact of the Megaupload Shutdown on Movie Sales

The growth of Internet-based piracy has led to a wide-ranging debate over how copyright policy should be enforced in the digital era. In this paper we analyze the impact of the US government's shutdown of a major piracy site – Megaupload.com – on digital sales and rentals of movies.Exploiting cross-country variation in pre-shutdown usage of Megaupload, we find that the shutdown of Megaupload and its associated sites caused digital revenues for three major motion picture studios to increase by 6.5–8.5%. Our results suggest that some consumers will turn to legal channels when a major filesharing site is shut down, and by extension that illegal filesharing displaces digital movie sales.     

Organizational factors and technology-intensive industry: the US and Japan

High technology industry in the US and Japan can be thought of as distinct organizational models. Here the authors examine the historical evolution, major characteristics, and benefits and costs of these different models. This leads to the conclusion that organizational factors exert a powerful influence on the ability of firms, industries and nations to adapt to new technology-intensive industries.     

US—Soviet grain embargoes: Regulating the MNCs

The US government has often attempted to regulate commercial interaction between US grain MNCs (multinational corporations) and the Soviet Union. The US government tried to prohibit the sale of grain to the Soviet Union prior to 1971, to swap US grain for Soviet oil in 1975, and to embargo all grain sales to the Soviets in 1980. Distinctive characteristics of grain MNCs and grain as a commodity, however, have made such efforts at national regulation by the US government a difficult administrative task. These characteristics include the secrecy surrounding grain trading, the fungibility of grain, the use of ‘optional origins’ contracts, and the possession of a considerable number of foreign subsidiaries by the grain MNCs.     

Effect of Merger on Market Price and Product Quality: American and US Airways

Review of Industrial Organization - In this paper, I analyze the effect of the merger between American Airlines (AA) and US Airways (US) on market price and product quality. I use...     

Foreign—domestic intersections in US food policy

This essay probes the major points. of intersection between US domestic and foreign policies in the realm of food and agriculture. Five issue areas are of specific interest: the farm income/consumer price/food supply matrix; international agricultural trade relations; economic, strategic, and diplomatic applications of food resources; LDC agricultural development and global food security; and food assistance.     

Computing policies and problems: A stage theory approach

Computing policies have been considered a major mechanism for reducing and preventing the emergence of problems in computing operations. The authors examine the relationship between computing policies and problems, and formulate a theoru of the interactions between problems, policies and commitment of resources for computing activity. The data presented are from an international comparative study of computing operations and impacts in 40 US and 16 other cities.