中国货币需求:资产价格及政策含义

货币需求是被理论界和政策制定者长期关注的重要理论和实践问题,是货币政策决策的一个重要参考变量。货币需求的长期均衡和短期均衡关系反映了收入水平、利率、消费价格水平以及资产价格水平和货币需求之间的重要关系。这些关系也是确定货币政策时所需要考虑的重要内容。本文对中国的长期货币需求和短期货币需求1985~2010年年度数据进行了协整和误差修正模型分析。结果发现:资产价格(房地产价格水平)对货币数量在长期和短期都有着十分重要的影响;利率水平在长期仍是货币需求的重要影响因素;消费价格的长期货币需求弹性较低,短期和货币需求没有关系;当货币数量失衡时,向长期均衡进行调整的速度很慢。由此,中国的货币政策在中介指标、操作指标以及货币政策工具等方面都需要做出适当的调整。     

Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Price determination theory typically focuses on the role of monetary policy, while the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence of either monetary or fiscal dominance.     

CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

工业生态学理论与城市生态工业园区设计研究——以吉林省九台市为例

首先介绍了国外工业生态学的研究进展和主要理论,其次是结合国内外生态工业园区的实践,重点对吉林省九台市生态工业园区的设计进行介绍,主要包括生态工业园区设计的思路、生态工业园区的产业构造和生态工业园区的管理模式。     

村域人地系统状态及其变化的定量研究--以河南省三个不同类型村为例

借助地理学及其他相关学科理念,根据实地调查的大量农户数据,从微观视角对村域人地关系系统进行了定量分析。用人地关系系统熵来表征人地系统的状态函数,用熵变来反映人地系统的发展变化,用熵流来表示人地系统各空间型式地域主体之间的流动。研究表明,三个调研村域人地系统稳定程度存在显著差异,不同的产业发展、农户行为对村域人类活动无序程度及其承载容量影响不同。从微观地域、微观个体视角,提出了村域人地系统相应的调控措施:高效利用农家庭院,加强企业管理,规范农户行为,发挥地方政府作用。