THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES TO EMPLOYMENT CREATION AND GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA

This study examines the linkages between the manufacturing and services sectors, and between each of them and the rest of the domestic economy, based on analysis of input-output tables and employment trends. This reveals that manufacturing is particularly important as a source of demand for the services sector as well as the rest of the economy through its strong backward linkages, which suggests that in this respect a decline in manufacturing could negatively affect future growth. Services are especially important in terms of employment creation, both direct and indirect.     

DETERMINANTS OF SECTORAL COMPOSITION IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THEORETICAL AND QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATIONS OF THE PHILIPPINES

The Philippine economy since the 1980s has undergone shifts of production, employment, and consumption in the direction of the greater share of nontradable sectors, despite relatively stagnant economic growth. This paper examines sources of the sectoral shifts theoretically and quantitatively based on a dynamic model of a small open economy. The theoretical analysis identifies possible factors affecting the evolution of the sectoral composition: changes in sectoral total factor productivity (TFP), the tariff rate, and the terms of trade. Then, the relative importance of these factors is examined quantitatively by conducting simulations of the model calibrated to the Philippine economy.     

ELECTRICITY REFORMS IN MALI: A MACRO–MICRO ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS ON POVERTY AND DISTRIBUTION

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) micro-simulation model to explore the distributional and poverty-related effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Mali, a poor country in West Africa. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Mali by income deciles, showing that few poor households are connected to the electricity grid. We then apply a sequential CGE micro-simulation model to track the transmission mechanisms between increases in electricity prices and changes in poverty and inequality among different household groups. Our results show that direct price increases have a minimal effect on poverty and inequality, whereas the general equilibrium effects of such increases are quite strong and negative. The compensating policies we tested do not help those who lose from the pricing reform. In fact they amplify the negative effects.     

THE POLITICAL ELEMENT IN THE WORKS OF W. ARTHUR LEWIS: THE 1954 LEWIS MODEL AND AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT

William Arthur Lewis, the Nobel Prize awardee in 1979, was actively involved in politics and policymaking. During World War II, Lewis was appointed to be a young advisor to the British Colonial Office where he came into direct collision with the mainstream laissez‐faire philosophy. After the War, Lewis took the lead in a Fabian conference on colonial question, and his encounter with Kwame Nkrumah eventually compelled him to write an important monograph on the prospect of plural governance in Africa. Through a rereading of Lewis's original texts, it is demonstrated that his emphasis on peasant‐led agricultural development and advocacy of political pluralism were consistently manifested in his academic and nonacademic writings on tropical regions, especially on Africa, contrary to the conventional interpretation of his 1954 model of “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour,” which has tended to pin much faith on top‐down industrialization.     

ON THE MOTHER AND CHILD LABOR NEXUS UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: FINDINGS FROM RURAL INDIA

There is an emerging consensus that lack of credit is a major cause of child labor and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of resources. At the same time, patterns in how children spend their time appear to be strongly influenced by maternal employment decisions. This paper includes an assessment of the effect of credit constraints on maternal employment and that of maternal employment on the intrahousehold allocation of labor, a nexus which has been left unexplored by existing studies. Three findings emerge: (1) a mother is more likely to work outside when a household lacks resources, and her domestic labor can be easily replaced by other members, (2) credit market accessibility is one of the major determinants of maternal labor, and (3) elder daughters assume a large part of the burden of maternal employment by providing domestic labor. Under binding credit constraints, results of this study support the collective as opposed to the unitary model of households.     

COLONIALISM AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA: AN EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN VICTORIA'S WATER SECTOR DURING THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Institutional change in water rights in the nineteenth century Australian colony of Victoria raised institutional efficiency, which contributed to long‐run economic growth. High‐quality human capital and the extension of voting rights (franchise) were crucial for efficient institutional change in the water sector. Quality human capital (literacy) appeared to increase the rural population's awareness of the economic impact of the existing structure of water rights that may have constrained growth in the agricultural sector and reduced investment incentives. Extension of the franchise allowed the rural population to exert political pressure for enactment of change in water rights, which resulted in efficiency‐enhancing policies and efficient institutions. The findings show these two factors were more important than Victoria's British colonial heritage in determining whether growth‐enhancing institutional change took place.