Public sector performance measurement and stakeholder support

Over the past several decades there has been dramatically increased attention paid to measuring the performance of public sector and nonprofit organizations in the United States and elsewhere. Recent research has indicated that public sector and nonprofit organizations are responsive to performance measurement in both productive and unproductive ways. However, it is not yet known how stakeholders respond to this measurement. This paper makes use of a unique panel survey dataset of the population of elementary and middle schools in the state of Florida to directly investigate this question. We exploit the fact that Florida changed its school grading system in 2002 and study the degree to which private contributions to schools are responsive to the information contained in school grades. We find evidence that school grades can have substantial effects on a school's ability to obtain private contributions. We also observe that schools serving different clienteles are treated differently in response to changes in school grades.     

How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending

We develop a novel empirical approach to assess the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending consisting of three stages: 1) extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy by estimating a fiscal policy rule; 2) use the residuals of the first-stage regression to investigate the existence of crowding-in and/or crowding-out effects both in the short and the medium term; and 3) condition the response of private spending on a set of country characteristics. We find that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts growth in the short term, but is detrimental in the medium term. In addition, the empirical findings suggest that the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending varies across regions and income groups, and depends on countries' economic characteristics such as the level of economic development, trade openness, government and country size.     

OPTIMAL GRADING

The teacher–student relationship is modeled as an agency problem, where teachers are concerned with human capital formation and students with ability signaling. We distinguish between two cases depending on whether in ability inference the job market can or cannot observe the grading rule applied. We show that many empirical grading patterns, including grade compression and inflation, are all consistent with optimal ability screening when grading rules are unobservable. With observable grading rules, the teacher perfectly screens students' abilities, provided that certain conditions hold. We apply the model to discuss policy applications such as “No Child Left Behind.”     

ECONOMIC TRANSITION AND SUBJECTIVE POVERTY IN URBAN CHINA

Market-oriented economic reforms have substantially changed the Chinese economy. A policy of "allowing some to get rich earlier" clearly has benefited some regions of the country more than others. The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in regional urban poverty during this period of policy transition. Our approach is based on survey responses to minimum needs (i.e., the "subjective method"). For the richest (Coast) and poorest regions (North West) we find unambiguous declines in poverty between 1988 and 1995 for the registered population. For the Central and South West regions we find that changes in poverty over time are sensitive to both the poverty line selected and the poverty index employed.     

Public capital,productivity and trade balances: some evidence for the Italian regions

This paper analyses the extent to which intensive investments in public capital may have had an unfavourable impact on the regional trade balances across the 20 Italian regions. Our working hypothesis is that investments in public capital, while stimulating the demand for tradables across the regions, may have a limited positive impact on the supply of tradables in regions characterised by relatively low productivity like the South of Italy (or Mezzogiorno). The empirical results are consistent with our expectations and suggest that programs of investments in public capital should be accompanied by additional policy measures that can remove the structural factors that hamper the total factor productivity growth in specific areas.     

我国战略性新兴产业创新能力评价及政策研究

基于能力观视角,结合国家创新驱动发展战略及创新管理理论,从创新政策扶持等5个方面构建我国战略性新兴产业创新能力评价体系。搜集我国内地31个省级行政区战略性新兴产业2010-2016年数据,运用因子分析和聚类分析法衡量我国各省级行政区战略性新兴产业创新能力,揭示不同地区战略性新兴产业创新能力的差异与原因,并对我国内地31个省级行政区进行类别判断。研究发现：我国战略性新兴产业整体创新能力较弱,区域发展不平衡问题依然存在;多数地区存在创新短板,“木桶效应”限制了区域整体创新潜力;不同地区创新能力大致呈金字塔形态分布,且“胡焕庸线”两侧差距明显。最后,针对不同地区实际情况和区域特征提出政策建议。     

Easy grading practices and supply–demand factors: evidence from Italy

In this article, we investigate how heterogeneity in grading standards across university degree courses is related to supply and demand factors. Using a sample of almost 26,000 students enrolled at an Italian University, we document how grades vary significantly across degrees. After controlling for student characteristics, class-size, classmate quality and degree fixed effects, it emerges that students obtain better grades and are less likely to drop-out when their degree course experiences an excess of supply. We adopt an instrumental variable strategy to account for endogeneity problems and instrument the excess of supply using the total number of universities offering each degree course. Our two-stage least squares (TSLS) estimates confirm that the teaching staff on degree courses facing low demand tend to set lower academic standards with the result that their students obtain better grades and have a lower probability of dropping out than they might otherwise. Similar results are obtained using a control function approach.     

Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions: a reappraisal

This paper studies convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions over the period 1980–2000. We use median unbiased estimators of the rate of convergence to the steady-state growth path, while allowing for unrestricted patterns of heterogeneity and spatial correlation across regions. By permitting the model parameters to be completely different across regions, not only we avoid imposing strong a priori assumptions but we are also able to analyze the spatial patterns in the estimated coefficients. Our results differ from those found using conventional estimators. The main differences are: i) the mean rate of convergence is much lower; ii) for most regions this rate is zero; iii) the number of regions for which we reject equality in trend growth rates is substantially lower. We also find significant evidence of correlation of growth rates across neighbor regions and across regions belonging to the same country.     

Double Standards in Educational Standards – Do Schools with a Disadvantaged Student Body Grade More Leniently?

A simple model of decentralized graduation standards is presented. It is shown that a school whose students are disadvantaged on the labor market applies less demanding standards because such students have lower ability or less incentives to graduate. The model's predictions are tested using Dutch school‐level data. Since students in the Netherlands have to participate in both a central and a school specific examination, we can identify the grading policy of individual schools. We find that schools which harbor greater shares of disadvantaged students tend to set lower standards. This association is most pronounced in the track of secondary schooling that prepares for university.     

基于云模型的区域企业绿色技术创新环境成熟度评价

基于企业绿色技术创新环境成熟度视角,运用2019年我国内地省域数据,构建包含政策环境、经济环境、社会环境和创新环境4个维度的企业绿色技术创新成熟度评价指标体系,采用云模型评价方法,对我国企业绿色技术创新环境进行评估。结果表明,企业绿色技术创新环境与区域经济发展之间存在非线性关系;政策环境和社会环境是企业绿色技术创新环境成熟度中最主要的影响维度;我国企业绿色技术创新环境整体处于中等成熟度,且不同区域间存在显著差异。最后,基于全新视角,提出提高企业绿色技术创新环境成熟度的政策建议。     

我国货币政策区域效应的存在性及原因--基于最优货币区理论的分析

早在蒙代尔提出最优货币区理论之时,他就指出了最优货币区的范围可以大于国界,也可以在一国国界之内。本文把常用于国际经济领域的最优货币区理论运用于我国这样一个大国内部,指出我国并不满足最优货币区标准;利用VAR模型和IRF检验也证实我国货币政策存在显著的区域效应。进一步,本文从货币政策传导机制的角度分析得出信贷渠道和利率渠道是导致我国货币政策区域效应的主要原因。最后本文提出推进生产要素自由流动,缩小东中西区域经济差异,顺畅我国货币政策传导机制的建议。     

Globalization and the Inequality–Unemployment Tradeoff

Over the last 20 years, advanced economies have experienced an “unemployment versus inequality” tradeoff that is critically uneven across countries. To explain this, we propose an extended HOS model in which: the factors are skilled and unskilled labor; there is a continuum of goods; the world comprises two North countries (one egalitarian and one nonegalitarian) and the South; there is no factor price equalization; globalization consists in the South cornering a growing share of world production. In the North, globalization entails an inequality–unemployment tradeoff and the adjustment to globalization is more painful for the country that was initially inequality‐oriented.     

South Africa's export predicament*

Using South Africa as an example, this article explores how the structure of production affects export diversification and economic growth. We show that the lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita in South Africa over the past 40 years. This slow structural transformation is shown to be a consequence in part of the peripheral nature of South Africa's productive capabilities: the country is specialized in sectors intensive in highly specific factors of production that cannot be easily redeployed to other activities. Using this methodology, we examine the sectoral priorities of the South African Department of Trade and Industry and explore the policy implications of the country's orientation in the product space.     

Unemployment,marriage and divorce

In this article, we examine whether the business cycle plays a role in marriage and divorce. We use data on Spain, since the differences between recession and expansion periods across regions are quite pronounced in that country. We find that the unemployment rate is negatively associated with the marriage rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of marriage; however, the response of the divorce rate to the business cycle is mixed. Results show the existence of different patterns, depending on geography: divorce rates in coastal regions are pro-cyclical, while in inland regions divorces react to unemployment in a counter-cyclical way.     

A REDUCTION IN CONSUMER EXPENDITURE ON CIGARETTES AND ITS EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT: A CASE STUDY OF SOUTH AFRICA

This study estimates empirically the employment effects if stronger tobacco control policies result in reduced consumption in South Africa. Since 1995, the government has committed itself to a stronger tobacco control policy and increased excise taxes. Yet policy makers are sensitive to the need to pursue this public health policy in a way that will minimize job losses. This study uses input-output methodology and four expenditure scenarios to estimate output and employment effects following such policies. The analysis suggests that net employment effects will be positive if consumption expenditure is switched from tobacco to other goods and services in the economy. Further, this study suggests that these policy implications for tobacco control and public health hold, if a country has a self-sufficient industry like South Africa. (JEL 118, D57)     

How history matters for student performance. lessons from the Partitions of Poland

This paper examines the effect on current student performance of the 19th century Partitions of Poland among Austria, Prussia and Russia. Using a regression discontinuity design, I show that student test scores are 0.6 standard deviations higher on the Austrian side of the former Austrian-Russian border, despite the modern similarities of the three regions. However, I do not find evidence for differences across the Prussian-Russian border. Using a theoretical model and indirect evidence, I argue that the Partitions have persisted through their impact on social norms toward local schools. Nevertheless, the persistent effect of Austria is puzzling, given the historical similarities of the Austrian and Prussian education systems. I argue that the differential legacy of Austria and Prussia originates from the Austrian Empire’s policy to promote Polish identity in schools and the Prussian Empire’s efforts to Germanize the Poles through education.     

The Effect of Corruption on Investment Growth: Evidence from Firms in Latin America,Sub‐Saharan Africa,and Transition Countries*

Most of the empirical studies that analyze the impact of corruption on investment have three common features: they employ country‐level data on investment, corruption is measured at the country level, and data for countries from several regions are pooled together. This paper uses firm‐level data on investment and measures corruption at the firm and country level, and allows the effect of corruption to vary by region. Our dependent variable is firms' investment growth and we employ six measures of corruption from four different sources—two firm‐level measures and four country‐level measures. We find that the effect of corruption on investments varies significantly across regions: corruption has a negative and significant effect on investment growth for firms in Transition countries but has no significant impact for firms in Latin America and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Furthermore, for Transition countries, corruption is the most important determinant of investment.     

Are We Better Off if Our Politicians Have More Information?

The model of public policy studied in this paper has heterogeneous citizens/voters and two public goods: one (roads) chosen directly by an elected policy‐maker, and the other (pollution) stochastically dependent on the amount of roads. Both a one‐country and a two‐country version of the model are analyzed; the latter displays externalities across the countries which create incentives for free riding and strategic delegation. The welfare effects of providing the policy‐maker with information about the relationship between roads and pollution are investigated, and it is shown that more information hurts some—sometimes even all—citizens. In particular, the opportunity not to create an institution for information gathering can serve as a commitment device for a country, although with the unfortunate effect of making the overall outcome even worse. Implications for the welfare effects of “informational lobbying” are also discussed.     

The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), estimated using a large data set comprising of 246 quarterly series over the period 1980:01 to 2006:04. The results based on the impulse response functions indicate that, in general, house price inflation responds negatively to monetary policy shock, but the responses are heterogeneous across the middle-, luxury- and affordable-segments of the housing market. The luxury-, large-middle- and medium-middle-segments are found to respond much more than the small-middle- and the affordable-segments of the housing market. More importantly, we find no evidence of the home price puzzle, observed previously by other studies that analyzed house prices using small-scale models. We put this down to the benefit gained from using a large information set.     

A SIGNALING THEORY OF GRADE INFLATION*

When employers cannot tell whether a school truly has many good students or just gives easy grades, a school has incentives to inflate grades to help its mediocre students, despite concerns about preserving the value of good grades for its good students. We construct a signaling model where grades are inflated in equilibrium. The inability to commit to an honest grading policy reduces the efficiency of job assignment and hurts a school. Grade inflation by one school makes it easier for another school to do likewise, thus providing a channel to make grade exaggeration contagious.