中国银行流动性过剩的成因辨析:一个新的视角

本文将银行的流动性资产分为自愿性(预防性)流动资产和非自愿性流动资产两部分.通过建立银行预防性流动资产需求模型,运用向量误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解方法实证分析我国银行流动性过剩的原因.实证结果表明:银行间同业拆借利率、汇率波动率、存款波动率和银行存款增加是银行流动性过剩的主要原因,银行的自愿性流动资产过剩和非自愿性流动性过剩并存,银行大量的流动性资产部分是为了规避融资成本、汇率风险和存款波动等风险而持有的.     

Financial Turmoil, Failed Bank Acquisitions, and Bank Business Lending Behavior

This paper utilizes bank Call Report and FDIC receivership data from 1987 to 1991 to examine the impact of a failed bank acquisition on the growth rate of commercial and industrial (C&I) lending at the acquiring institutions. Using a two-stage least squares model with fixed effects, we find that banks acquiring a failed bank's assets experience a significant decline in both the growth rate of C&I lending and their capital asset ratios in the period of the acquisition. The results support anecdotal evidence that failed-bank borrowers may experience difficulties in accessing credit once their bank fails and underscores the importance of bank-borrower relationships in C&I lending. Finally, the paper provides an alternative explanation for banks' stagnant or declining business lending activity during this period of financial turmoil.     

Modeling Foreign Bank Performance and Lending Behavior

This paper examines the profitability and commercial loan growth of foreign banks using a simultaneous‐equation framework. Maximizing behavior provides a two‐equation system in which bank profitability depends on variables related to expected returns, costs, and risks and in which loan growth is determined by risk and return variables. The model is tested to evaluate the determinants of foreign bank performace and lending behavior in the United States between 1987 and 1991. Overall the results indicate that factors such as capital strength, commercial and industrial loan growth, and assets composition were important in determining foreign banks' return‐on‐assets in the period under study. The role of capital appears to be particularly important in explaining foreign bank performance. The single significant determinant of loan growth was found to be previous period's loan growth.     

资本约束对商业银行资产配置行为的影响——基于175家商业银行数据的经验研究

本文使用1998～2009年我国175家商业银行的资产配置数据,研究了资本监管制度对银行资产配置行为的影响。本文发现,现行的资本监管制度对银行资产配置行为具有重要影响,资本监管制度实施之后,银行依据自身资本水平调整资产结构,资本充足银行持有更多的风险资产,贷款比例较高;而资本不足银行则减持风险资产,贷款比例下降。此外,由于不同规模商业银行面临的融资约束不同,资本水平对资产配置行为的影响存在一定的差异,资本对城市及农村商业银行的约束效应更明显。本文的这些发现为监管当局的资本监管政策提供了经验证据,并提出进行差异化监管的政策建议。     

外资银行进入对上海银行业经营影响的实证研究

本文研究了外资银行对于在上海经营的国内银行的影响。发现外资银行促进了国内银行资产利润率的提升和贷款损失准备金的提取,对上海银行业的人民币业务没有显著影响,而对外汇业务份额有较为显著的负向影响。国内银行应不断提高风险管理水平、业务的综合化和国际化水平,监管机构应努力促进中国金融市场的竞争性,促进商业银行经营效率的提升。上海应继续以优惠政策吸引外资银行的进入,促进国际金融中心建设。     

货币政策和银行风险承担：一种非线性关系

宽松的货币政策会通过估值、收入和现金流机制,追逐收益机制以及中央银行沟通和反应机制等渠道增加银行风险承担,通过风险转移机制降低银行风险承担,从而导致货币政策与银行风险承担之间可能存在复杂的非线性关系。本文使用面板阈值模型,基于我国银行业数据研究了货币政策对银行风险承担的影响,发现我国货币政策对银行风险承担的影响存在门限效应,即货币政策对银行风险承担的影响取决于货币政策基准利率偏离泰勒规则利率的程度。当这种偏离小于门限值时,宽松货币政策会增加银行风险承担;当这种偏离大于门限值时,宽松货币政策会降低银行风险承担。本文研究对更好地理解我国货币政策对银行风险承担及金融稳定的影响有一定参考意义。     

国有商业银行不良资产处置损失补偿方式研究

从目前情况看,不良资产问题是国有商业银行改革与发展中的最大障碍.根据国际经验,对不良资产处置损失补偿的方式主要有国家财政承担、中央银行承担、商业银行自身承担、第三方资金注入及发行货币,其中政府资金是主要来源.本文在借鉴国际经验的基础上,综合考虑现有国家财政能力、中央银行外汇储备实力、商业银行自身财务能力以及社会投资趋势的情况下,提出国有商业银行不良资产损失补偿要采取合理分担、多种渠道实施的方式来进行,即通过增发国债、中央银行动用外汇储备、商业银行自身消化、引入社会资金等多种方式共同承担不良资产处置损失,为其进一步的改革与发展铺平道路.     

外资股权、外币资产负债结构对我国银行稳定性影响的研究

目前,国际资本流动影响我国银行稳定性主要通过两条路径：一是通过持有我国商业银行股权,二是通过改变商业银行的资产负债结构。本文运用15家股份制商业银行2006—2012年面板数据,从微观角度探讨了外资股权结构、外币资产负债结构对其稳定性造成的影响。实证结果表明：（1）外资股权对商业银行稳定性影响在不同银行之间存在着一定差异;（2）外币资产负债结构对于我国商业银行稳定性有明显影响。据此,本文从外资股权、外币资产负债结构方面提出了商业银行稳定性管理的建议。     

资产透明度、监管套利与银行系统性风险

资产不透明的金融机构过度依赖批发性融资进行监管套利不利于系统性风险的防控。在此背景下,本文首先在经典银行道德风险模型的基础上引入关联性,从资产透明度和监管套利的视角分析银行系统性风险累积的内在机理。而后利用2007-2018年中国上市银行微观数据,构建资产透明度指标和系统性风险指标(SRISK、MES),对理论推论进行实证检验。主要结论有:(1)资产不透明、监管套利会提高银行的系统性风险。(2)监管套利弱化了资产透明度和资本监管机制对银行系统性风险承担的约束作用,资产透明度与资本监管机制在约束系统性风险承担中的协调作用不明显。(3)以大银行为主的债权银行受监管套利的影响相较于受资产透明度的影响更明显。在此基础上,我们对完善金融风险防范体系以及监管机制提出了若干建议。     

How does banking sector globalization affect banking crisis?

A key feature of financial services liberalization is increasing banking-sector globalization.Using different measures to capture this phenomenon, the present study examines its impact on banking crisis for a dataset of 138 nations spanning the period 1998–2013, while controlling for other banking-industry specific, macroeconomic and external factors. Employing different econometric models and several robustness checks, I find greater banking sector globalization to reduce the occurrence of banking crisis. Moreover, greater bank asset concentration, diversification, credit flows, real interest rates, inflation rates, M2-to-foreign exchange reserves and nominal exchange rate depreciations significantly increase the likelihood of banking crisis, while higher bank profits, real GDP growth, economic development and economic freedom lower such chances. The results are further examined for nations across different levels of economic development and with different degrees of foreign bank penetration. The findings underscore that foreign bank presence provides greater financial stability in the banking industry of host nations.     

Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets

Recent developments in international financial markets have highlighted the role of banks in the transmission of shocks across borders. We employ dynamic panel methods for a sample of OECD countries to analyze whether banks' foreign assets react to macroeconomic shocks at home and abroad. We find that banks reduce their foreign assets in response to a relative increase in domestic interest rates, and they increase their foreign assets when the growth rate of world energy prices rises. The responses are characterized by a temporal overshooting and a dynamic adjustment process that extends over several quarters.     

从中美经济相互依存看我国高额外汇储备管理

美债危机爆发后,中国作为美国在海外最大的债券持有者仍然不得不继续增持美债,一方面是由于人民币汇率长期与美元挂钩,国际贸易和金融交易主要以美元结算以及我国出口导向型经济增长方式短期内无法改变均导致外汇储备被动积累,另一方面更是因为一旦我国大规模减持美元资产,将引起全球外汇市场对美元的恐慌性抛售,并最终危及我国在美金融资产安全。美债危机表明我国经济对美国高度依赖,并凸显了经济增长方式转变以及对高额外汇储备有效管理的重要性与紧迫性。     

Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies

This paper discusses important features of financial dollarization and its implications for the macro economy and financial sector deepening. Despite the need to slow down the rate of inflation and keep exchange rates under control, to achieve growth and economic development, monetary policies may permit increases in the base money to keep pace with real GDP growth. In heavily dollarized economies, during periods of sharp devaluations of the domestic currency, financial assets and liabilities shift toward foreign currency, exacerbating downward pressure on the exchange rate. When central banks face pressures to keep the exchange rate steady in nominal terms, interest rates in the domestic currency are set at levels substantially higher than those on dollar assets. In such states of the world, banks prefer to lend to the government sector at these higher rates than to the private sector. Although private firms may benefit from lower rates on dollar loans, they also face significant exchange rate or currency risk due to the currency mismatch emerging from their dollar debt while their receivables may tilt toward domestic currency denominated instruments. This weakens their balance sheet, which in turn increases the exposure of the banking sector to a variety of risks.     

负利率对银行净息差影响机制研究——基于欧洲主要上市银行的经验证据

净息差是反映银行经营效率的重要指标,负利率政策的实施对银行业净息差产生了显著的负面影响。基于2004—2017年欧洲负利率地区102家主要上市银行的年度非平衡面板数据,本文对负利率环境下银行净息差的调整机制进行了深入研究。研究结果表明:(1)政策利率降低(提高)会带动银行净息差下降(上升);(2)负利率环境下,银行净息差对政策利率调整,尤其是利率下调的敏感性明显增强;(3)不同特质性银行净息差对政策利率调整的敏感性存在明显差异,规模较大、国际化程度较高银行的净息差对政策利率变动的敏感性较低,以利息收入、零售业务为主银行的净息差对政策利率变动较为敏感。本文的研究丰富了负利率政策传导机制及影响领域的相关成果,探讨了负利率环境下不同特质性银行行为调整差异,为商业银行做好负利率环境下的息差管理提供了客观依据。     

新会计准则下银行资产分类会计选择的理论建模

2007年1月1日起实施的新会计准则对商业银行最重要的影响在于资产分类方面的新规定。新准则规定基于管理者持有该证券的动机和是否具有持有到期的能力对金融资产分类。资产分类的不同决定着市场价值变化对盈利水平和银行权益的影响。本文考虑新会计准则对银行资产分类的可能影响,设计了一个债券类产品和贷款,根据投资者效用和动机研究银行的资产分类决策,对银行考虑新会计准则对其影响时的资产分类决策建模。模型的解表明,风险中性的银行权衡流动性需求、权益稳定、资产收益几个方面决定其金融资产的分类,而银行收益和股东价值仍主要取决于银行的投资战略和对市场的预期,对资产分类规定的变化不会影响银行的实际收益,但短期银行会考虑其流动性需求和监管资本的稳定性,来决定银行的分类决策。     

The Impact of Central Bank FX Interventions on Currency Components

This article assesses the impact of official FOREX interventionsof the three major central banks in terms of the dynamics ofthe currency components of the major exchange rates over theperiod 1989–2003. We identify the currency componentsof the mean and volatility processes of exchange rates usingthe framework developed recently by Bos and Shephard (2006).Our results show that, in general, concerted interventions tendto affect the dynamics of both currency components of the exchangerate. In contrast, unilateral interventions are found to primarilyaffect the currency of the central bank present in the market.Our findings also emphasize a role for interventions conductedby these central banks on other related FOREX markets.     

English commercial bank liquidity, 1860-1913

This article presents new half-yearly time series for the asset ratios of commercial banks in England and Wales, 1860-1913. The series reveal new evidence on the nature of the banks' business and are, therefore, relevant to the debate on the role of banks in British economic development. The new estimates are used to examine trends and short-term changes in bank liquidity. Analysis is concerned with the changing stability of bank asset structure and with substitutability across different asset ratios. The main finding is of a sharp, long-term increase in liquidity and a concomitant decline in bank credit to the non-bank, private sector. The article also highlights the significance of short-term shocks to the trend increase in bank liquidity. The new findings are supportive of the argument that, over time, English banks became less involved with the non-bank private sector. In general, the results confirm that the English and Welsh bank asset structure became more liquid over time. However, no detailed breakdown of bank loans to the non-bank, private sector (for example, between business loans and personal loans), is available for this period. Moreover, the current study offers no evidence as to the trend in financial provision to the business sector from institutions other than the commercial banks. Nevertheless, the results are clear in showing a strong upward trend in commercial bank liquidity and a relative decline in private sector credit provision by the commercial banks.     

结售汇如何影响银行风险承担水平?——基于银行资产负债表的视角

本文构建了一个基于银行资产负债表的理论模型,研究了结售汇对银行风险承担水平的影响机制,并采用结售汇报表数据进行实证检验。结果表明,为实现利润最大化,银行会将外汇流入创造的流动性用于投放较高风险的贷款,导致净结汇对银行风险承担水平有正向影响,异质性分析结果显示大型银行受影响程度高于中小银行。本文结论意味着,当考虑结售汇波动可能进一步加剧时,有必要出台更多结构性政策,补足外汇流入减少带来的货币缺口,优化存款市场结构,稳定金融机构流动性预期,以缓冲外需冲击可能带来的影响,并激励银行服务重心进一步下沉,为小微企业提供更多信贷支持,完成好金融服务实体经济的重要使命。     

人民币汇率波动背景下的“钟摆效应”探析

2012年以来,人民币对美元汇率继续呈现双向波动趋势,升值和贬值预期交替出现。企业等市场主体根据人民币汇率预期变动,灵活调整外币资产负债配置结构,使财务运作呈现较为明显的“钟摆效应”。“钟摆效应”的出现,反映了国内市场主体对汇率风险意识的增强,也影响到外汇资产在央行和市场主体间配置的变动,增加跨境资金流动的波动性。为更好地适应国内市场主体外币资产配置需求的变化,文章提出相关政策建议。