论农产品贸易自由化的政策趋向

20世纪中期之后,以自由贸易理论为指导的国际条约和有关组织作用下,商品国际贸易的自由化程度不断提高,阻碍商品自由贸易的关税大幅度下降,非关税措施受到清理和规范。然而,农产品国际贸易却严重偏离了国际贸易的正常理论轨迹,非关税壁垒成为扭曲农产品国际贸易的主要影响因素。农产品的国际贸易表现出了特别严重的贸易保护,应该说在国际贸易的商品中是贸易保护程度最高的商品。农产品贸易自由化程度不但不及其它的初级产品,而且,其自由化程度远远低于工业制成品。各国对农产品实施的贸易保护主要不是通过关税来提高价格阻碍进口,而是通过非价格因素直接限制进口,更有甚者是通过国内生产补贴和出口补贴来鼓励出口,争夺国际农产品市场。     

世界农产品市场和贸易环境的新变化及中国面临的挑战

中国改革开放30年来,尤其是加入WTO以来,农产品贸易和自由化取得了举世瞩目的进展。然而,由于近年来对世界农业市场和贸易中出现的垄断和金融资本操纵农产品市场的巨变认识不足,疏于对被垄断和被操纵的防范,结果仅仅由于油料进口被ABCD公司的控制而造成整个农业贸易的历史性移位,由顺差转为逆差。因此,确保国家的食物安全,反对垄断和市场操纵,发展公平贸易,通过贸易来保证农产品有效供给并增加国民福利是今后中国农业贸易面临的严峻挑战。     

我国经济开放对城乡居民收入差距影响分析

改革开放以来,我国城乡居民生活水平得到极大提高,但同时却出现了严重的收入分配不公、收入差距越来越大的局面,而总体收入差距中,城乡居民收入差距是其中最主要的因素。本文将就我国经济开放对城乡收入差距影响作用的大小及方向进行分析。一、经济全球化对收入不平等的影响机制根据新古典贸易理论,贸易自由化将通过价格结构的变动、竞争动力结构变动和政府职能的变动这三个方面来影响到整体的收入分配状况:一是价格结构的变动一方面可能直接影响居民的收入分配,另一方面将通过产业结构的调整影响居民的收入分配。贸易自由化通过价格机制的…     

中国区域饲料粮供求和地区间贸易

随着居民收入水平的提高和农产品贸易自由化程度的加深，饲料粮短缺将成为中国面临的一个突出问题。这也是为什么在过去10多年里学术界和政府部门对中国饲料粮市场研究予以关注的主要原因。但是对中国区域饲料粮市场的研究远未得到应有的关注。本文构建了一个中国区域饲料粮市场的非线性空间均衡模型，模拟了贸易自由化、饲料粮生产技术进步、畜牧业技术进步、收入增长和畜产品出口变化对区域饲料粮市场生产、消费和流通的影响。     

中国家庭食物浪费的规模估算及决定因素分析

在食物充足稳定供给因自然生态环境恶化面临严峻挑战的当下,中国食物浪费现象却日趋严重。本文以家庭消费环节的食物浪费为主题,利用中国营养与健康调查(CHNS)数据,在家庭食物浪费状况描述和规模估算的基础上,从人口规模和构成、人口特征、经济状况和文化背景四个方面对决定家庭食物浪费的家庭微观层面因素做了理论探讨和计量分析,以此为减少家庭食物浪费探寻政策思路。分析结果显示:(1)中国家庭的平均食物浪费数量总体上虽在逐年下降,但发生食物浪费的家庭占比却在不断提高,且总量规模十分庞大。利用2009年数据来保守推算,2016年中国人均的家庭食物浪费量在7. 63~10. 86千克,全年家庭食物浪费总量高达1055. 60~1501. 55万吨。加总餐饮行业的食物浪费,中国2016年的食物浪费量占全年粮食总产量的比例不低于4. 47%~5. 2%。(2)在家庭微观层面,家庭的人口规模、经济状况、户主和主要女性成员的年龄、省份地域所反映的文化背景差异是解释家庭食物浪费发生和浪费水平的重要因素。     

中国区域服务贸易自由化政治经济分析

本文通过政治经济学分析,认为中国区域服务贸易自由化是为了实现一定的国家目标,主要包括政治和经济两个方面。虽然中国区域服务贸易自由化已取得一定成果,但进一步推进还存在许多障碍,我们需审慎选择FTA伙伴,逐步开放服务部门,同时通过完善国内服务业发展、制定相应法律法规等手段,逐步推进中国区域服务贸易自由化。     

大食物观下的农产品贸易与中国粮食安全

新中国成立70多年来,中国的粮食安全水平不断提高,以低于世界人均的水土资源实现了高于世界人均的食物消费水平。中国粮食安全取得举世瞩目的成就,一方面归功于国内粮食综合生产能力的不断提升,另一方面也得益于中国全球领先的贸易开放程度和外部粮源的有效利用,农产品贸易已全面融入中国粮食安全。然而,随着收入增长、国内食物需求的不断转型升级,以及国际市场风险波动的持续加剧等都对粮食安全保障提出更高要求。中国农产品贸易进口种类高度集中、重点品种进口来源地依赖度偏高等特点会使中国在全球粮食市场动荡加剧背景下出现外部粮源的利用风险明显上升的情况。大食物观的提出是对传统粮食安全保障思路的拓展。保障“大食物安全”,既需要依赖于国内全方位、多途径的食物资源开发,也需要进一步提高贸易开放水平,促进食物进口结构多元化发展,加快形成更加稳定、更具韧性的农产品贸易格局,降低外部粮源利用的不确定性风险,提高国内粮食生产的资源利用效率,提升国内粮食生产的可持续性。同时,大食物观下多元化农产品进口格局的构建也对相应的制度支持和条件支撑提出了更高要求,今后需要不断提高动物疫病输入防控与进口产品质量管控能力,逐步完善冷链物流设施...     

畜产品消费增长对我国饲料粮市场的影响

饲料粮短缺是我国面临的一个突出问题，这也是为什么在过去10多年里学术界和决策部门给予中国饲料粮市场和畜产品市场以高度关注的主要原因，本文通过构建一个中国区域饲料粮市场的非线性空间均衡模型，研究贸易自由化的背景下，我国城乡畜产品消费增长对我国区域饲料粮市场生产、消费和流通的影响。     

中国农业贸易自由化的环境效应分析

本文构建了农业贸易自由化环境效应的联立方程模型,并利用中国1990—2010年数据对该模型进行估计。结果表明,化肥和农药使用量的三个经济因素的影响都是显著的,其中规模效应和结构效应的影响显著为正,表明农业贸易自由化带来的生产规模的扩大和农业生产结构的调整增加了化肥和农药的使用量;技术效应的影响显著为负,表明农业贸易自由化带来的技术进步有利于减少化肥和农药的使用量,从而减轻环境污染程度;其总体效应为正,表明农业贸易自由化将有利于减少化肥和农药的使用量,对环境产生积极的影响。     

农业贸易自由化对我国环境的影响与对策

环境问题是人们普遍关注的重大问题。随着经济全球化与贸易自由化进程的加快 ,贸易与环境问题已成为学术界及世贸组织谈判的重要议题。到目前为止 ,国内学者对贸易与环境问题的讨论 ,大都集中在发达国家实行高标准的环境政策对我国产品国际竞争力影响的问题上 ,较少涉及贸易自由化程度提高对我国环境的影响 ,尤其是在农业方面。经过 1 5年艰苦谈判 ,我国终于加入ＷＴＯ ,它意味着我国农业国际化和自由化程度将不断提高。因此 ,充分认识和研究农业贸易自由化的环境效应及其在我国的表现 ,对政府及时采取有效的政策措施 ,化减负面环境效应 ,实…     

Cash crop liberalization and poverty alleviation in Africa: evidence from Malawi

This article uses the case of burley tobacco liberalization in Malawi to investigate the efficacy of cash crop liberalization as an instrument for poverty alleviation in sub‐Saharan Africa. The principal justification for cash crop liberalization is that markets allow farm households to increase their incomes by producing that which provides the highest return to their productive resources and use the cash to buy consumption goods. Using a latent welfare model, we find that households that selected to grow cash crops had higher incomes than those that did not grow cash crops. However, we also find that due to the lumpiness and seasonality of cash crop incomes, higher household incomes, while increasing food purchases did not significantly affect per capita food intake. Irrespective of participation in cash crops, for much of the cropping season rural households seem to rely more on nonfarm income for expenditure and consumption smoothing.     

Income Growth and International Meat Consumption

With technological adoption and trade liberalization, per capita incomes have grown rapidly in industrialized countries. Income growth has resulted in increased per capita meat consumption. Projecting future meat consumption requires quantifying the relationship between per capita income and meat consumption. This study estimates the relationship between income growth and meat consumption using data from 32 countries. Beef, pork, poultry, and lamb income elasticities declined at different rates as income levels increased. High income countries have experienced relatively constant per capita meat consumption. Low income counmes with low income growth have had stagnant meat consumption. Low income countries with growing incomes have experienced increasing meat consumption. Countries such as China characterized by relatively large income growth and moderate population growth have experienced large increases in total meat consumption.     

Expenditure Pattern for Food Away from Home Consumption in Turkey

ABSTRACT

One of the largest recent changes in consumer food purchasing behavior is the trend towards greater consumption of food eaten outside the home. Between 1994 and 2000, the share of total food expenditures spent on food away from home (FAFH) increased from 7 to 15% with an increasing share for fast-food facilities. This study focuses on whether demographic and socioeconomic factors have detectable effects on Turkish FAFH expenditures. This question is of interest because previous studies suggest that increasing household income, education, female labor participation and changing lifestyle especially in developing countries increased household FAFH consumption share but decreased food at home consumption share. However, no study to our knowledge has examined the combined effect of income, education, employment, and family status on Turkish FAFH consumption. The data for this research were obtained from personal interviews of representative sample households of the province of Adana in Turkey. The findings of this study generally indicate that restaurant facilities, employment of wife and education, composition of household, and income are statistically significant determinants of FAFH consumption.     

Household Food Consumption in a Developing Economy:

The primary objective of this paper is to describe household rice consumption patterns in Nigeria with evidence from Imo State, determine the nature, magnitude and direction of income, price and cross price elasticities of demand, and examine the factors influencing household rice consumption. A budget survey of 50 randomly selected rural and urban households in Imo State, Nigeria, interviewed. The survey was repeated for 14 months between November 1984 and January 1986, providing the data used for analysis. There were significant differences between urban and rural household per capita daily rice consumption. Income (expenditure) elasticity of demand was greater than unity, and decreased, as expected, from low to high income groups. Household income was the most important determinant of food consumption. The implications of these findings for food and international trade policy are discussed.     

Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao,China*

This study relates the social‐demographic characteristics of urban Chinese consumers to their consumption of fluid milk. A Tobit model is estimated drawing on individual consumer survey data collected in urban Qingdao in China in 2005. The major results of this study indicate that fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao is much higher compared to China's national level. The effect of increased income on milk consumption is positive, as expected. The expansion of modern food retailers also appears to play a positive role by facilitating consumers’ fluid milk consumption and influencing their food shopping patterns. The young and old consume significantly more fluid milk than the middle‐aged. Health consciousness of the elderly and the openness of youth to new foods appear to be fuelling these consumption patterns. If the findings of this study apply to other urban regions in China, then as urbanisation continues so also will the trend of increasing fluid milk consumption in China.     

An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China

Rice is the most important staple food in the People's Republic of China (PRO. In many Asian countries rice appears to have become an inferior good, with income increases leading to declines in per capita consumption as other food products are substituted for rice. In this study, human rice consumption is analyzed with a model that allows income elasticities to vary with income levels. An additional equation accounting for rice disappearance as seed, livestock feed, industrial uses and exports is also estimated. The results of the analysis indicate that rice has become an inferior good in China and per capita consumption is likely to decline in the future. Population growth and the growing use of rice for other purposes means that total rice disappearance will continue to increase although at a rate that is slower than has historically been the case. The predicted changes in rice consumption will create pressures to adjust production and trade patterns for rice as well as other agricultural products.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

Consumption inequality between farm and nonfarm households in Taiwan: a decomposition analysis of differences in distribution

Consumption has been recognized as a more reliable indicator of household well‐being than income. Although a considerable body of literature has examined income inequality between farm and nonfarm households, little is known about inequality in consumption. This research aims to fill this knowledge gap by investigating consumption disparity between farm and nonfarm households. Using a nationally representative household survey from Taiwan, we apply an unconditional quantile regression‐based decomposition method to decompose the differences in the distribution of household expenditure between these farm and nonfarm households. The results indicate that differences in the observed characteristics between these two types of households explain most of the consumption inequality. Moreover, the difference in the education level of the farm operator, household income, and the degree of urbanization are particularly important.     

Avian influenza,non‐tariff measures and the poultry exports of China

This paper focuses on the direct impact of avian influenza outbreaks and the impact of the consequent non‐tariff measures (NTMs) on the international poultry trade. Using monthly export data from China and its 122 poultry importing countries, a random‐effect gravity model has been adopted. Emphasising the agri‐food trade in a global value chain context, the research analysis distinguishes between ‘agri‐food goods’ (mostly uncooked poultry products) and ‘processed goods’ (mostly cooked poultry products). The results show that domestic avian influenza outbreaks have a significant negative impact on a country's poultry imports compared with such outbreaks in exporting countries. Moreover, NTMs induced by avian influenza reduce the uncooked poultry trade but temporarily increase the cooked poultry trade. However, with a time‐lag, the cooked poultry trade may soon face increasing NTMs. The results also imply that developing countries that attempt to export agri‐food products to developed countries should increase and enhance processed food production.     

At‐home meat consumption in China: an empirical study*

The remarkable economic changes occurring within China since 1978 have resulted in a striking alteration in food consumption patterns, and one marked change is the increasing consumption of meat. Given China’s large population, a small percentage change in per capita meat consumption could lead to a dramatic impact on the production and trade of agricultural products. Such changes have major implications for policy makers and food marketers. This paper concentrates on meat consumption patterns in the home in China. A censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system model was employed in the study, and major economic parameters were estimated for different meat items. Data used in this study were collected from two separate consumer surveys – one urban and one rural in 2005.