Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model

In this paper we propose a composite indicator for real-time recession forecasting based on alternative dynamic probit models. For this purpose, we use a large set of monthly macroeconomic and financial leading indicators from the German and US economies. Alternative dynamic probit regressions are specified through automated general-to-specific and specific-to-general lag selection procedures on the basis of slightly different initial sets. The resulting recession probability forecasts are then combined in order to decrease the volatility of the forecast errors and increase their forecasting accuracy. This procedure features not only good in-sample forecast statistics, but also good out-of-sample performances, as is illustrated using a real-time evaluation exercise.     

The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis

This paper systematically reviews empirical studies looking at the effectiveness of the Delphi technique, and provides a critique of this research. Findings suggest that Delphi groups outperform statistical groups (by 12 studies to two with two ‘ties’) and standard interacting groups (by five studies to one with two ‘ties’), although there is no consistent evidence that the technique outperforms other structured group procedures. However, important differences exist between the typical laboratory version of the technique and the original concept of Delphi, which make generalisations about ‘Delphi’ per se difficult. These differences derive from a lack of control of important group, task, and technique characteristics (such as the relative level of panellist expertise and the nature of feedback used). Indeed, there are theoretical and empirical reasons to believe that a Delphi conducted according to ‘ideal’ specifications might perform better than the standard laboratory interpretations. It is concluded that a different focus of research is required to answer questions on Delphi effectiveness, focusing on an analysis of the process of judgment change within nominal groups.     

A weak α-core existence theorem of games with nonordered preferences and a continuum of agents

Inspired by Kajii (1992) and Askoura (2011, 2017), we introduce the notion of the weak $\alpha$-core for games with nonordered preferences and a continuum of agents. First, we extend the work of Kajii (1992) to games with spaces of strategies defined on Hausdorff topological vector spaces. Furthermore, we prove the nonemptiness of the weak $\alpha$-core. Finally, we establish the relations between normal-form games, games with nonordered preferences and games with pseudo-utilities.     

Frankfurt Artificial Stock Market: a microscopic stock market model with heterogeneous interacting agents in small-world communication networks

We study the relationship between communication network topologies, namely the small-world networks introduced by Watts and Strogatz, and the simulation results of an artificial stock market, here the Frankfurt Artificial Stock Market. Heterogeneous interacting agents communicate their success and trading strategy to their nearest neighbors. A process of information diffusion arises through the adaptive behavior of agents when encountering more successful strategies in their direct neighborhood. We will show that an increasing rewiring probability of the small-world network will lead to higher volatility and distortion within our simulation model. It seems probable that the spatial position of traders within a communication network affects the price building process.     

Adverse effects of leverage and short-selling constraints in a financial market model with heterogeneous agents

This paper investigates the impact of leverage and short-selling constraints on financial market stability. Investors׳ demand is modelled in a well-known asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. In particular, I generalise the heterogeneous agents model of Brock and Hommes (1998) and Anufriev and Tuinstra (2013) to allow for leverage constraints as well as a short-selling tax. I consider two examples of adaptive belief systems describing the coevolution of prices and investors׳ beliefs. First, if the market is inhabited by fundamentalist and chartist traders, demand constraints have potential adverse effects and may restrict the stabilising fundamentalist strategy such that mispricing and price volatility increase. Second, if the market is inhabited by fundamentalists, optimists and pessimists with fixed beliefs, demand constraints drive down price volatility, but mispricing remains. The results suggest the stabilising effects of demand constraints in financial markets are limited. Only if asset prices are too high compared to fundamentals, policy makers should consider constraining leverage ratios in order to deflate financial bubbles.     

The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries

We employ a multi-country non-stationary dynamic factor model to assess spillover effects and transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables in individual non-US G7 countries. We find that trade, financial and confidence channels all play a significant role in the international transmission of US shocks. However, the results point to substantial heterogeneities of shock transmission across the individual G7 economies. In particular, we find negative transmission effects for Italy and Japan as the only two G7 countries not well integrated into global value chains. Moreover, the exchange rate responses of Germany, France and Italy turn out to be far less pronounced in comparison to the other G7 economies which we relate to their membership of the euro area and their coordinated monetary policies prior to the establishment of the euro. Whereas we document a close comovement of stock market dynamics across the G7 countries, we find credit and real estate markets to be less synchronized. We do not find the effects and transmission channels to be fundamentally affected by the post-2008 economic environment.     

International transmission of bubble crashes in a two-country overlapping generations model

We study the international transmission of bubble crashes by analyzing stationary sunspot equilibria in a two-country overlapping generations exchange economy with stochastic bubbles. We consider two cases of sunspot shocks. In the first case, we assume that only the foreign country receives a sunspot shock, while in the second, we assume that both countries independently receive sunspot shocks. In the first case, a bubble crash in the foreign country is always accompanied by a bubble crash in the home country. In the second case, a bubble crash in the foreign country can have a positive or negative effect on the home bubble. We also show that there exists a unique locally isolated stationary sunspot equilibrium, and that it is locally unstable.     

Approximate dynamic programming with post-decision states as a solution method for dynamic economic models

I introduce and evaluate a new stochastic simulation method for dynamic economic models. It is based on recent work in the operations research and engineering literatures (Van Roy et al., 1997, Powell, 2007, Bertsekas, 2011), but also had an early application in economics (Wright and Williams, 1982, Wright and Williams, 1984). The baseline method involves rewriting the household׳s dynamic program in terms of post-decision states. This makes it possible to choose controls optimally without computing an expectation. I add a subroutine to the original algorithm that updates the values of states not visited frequently on the simulation path; and adopt a stochastic stepsize that efficiently weights information. Finally, I modify the algorithm to exploit GPU computing.     

Expatriate adjustment as a multifaceted phenomenon: individual and organizational level predictors

A conceptual model is proposed that identifies critical antecedents of expatriate adjustment. Adjustment is conceptualized as the degree of fit between the expatriate manager and the environment, both work and socio-cultural. Adjustment is marked by both reduced conflict and increased effectiveness. As a multidimensional phenomenon, expatriate adjustment can be identified in psychological, socio-cultural and work domains. The model predicts that psychological and socio-cultural adjustment are the most immediate predictors of work adjustment. In this paper, it is asserted that the success of the expatriation process depends not only on the expatriate manager's competencies and skills, but also on organizational (both parent-company and local-unit) support and assistance prior to and during the assignment. Various international human resource management models are utilized to examine the organizational level antecedents of expatriate adjustment. Managerial resourcefulness, acculturation attitudes, personality dimensions and coping strategies are discussed in relation to individual predictors, whereas MNCs' international structure, value orientation, organizational life-cycle, diversity training, strategic planning and socialization are proposed as organizational predictors of expatriate adjustment.     

Reputational risk as a factor in the offshore location choice

Drawing on extant literature and eight case firms, this paper explores reputational risk as an essential factor in selecting offshore locations. By categorizing and aggregating insights from the empirical data and the relevant literature, the paper identifies country reputational risk as a factor determining the firm's propensity to exclude specific offshore locations. However, its effect is contingent upon managers' interpretation of the critical elements of the business environment in a particular country. Thus, the study contributes by demystifying the role of ‘managerial inputs’, which are often neglected within international sourcing literature. Further, reputational risk is delineated as a higher-order construct comprised of three lower-order constructs: unethical practices, institutional weakness, and quality concerns. Our findings distinguish reputational risk from the CSR framework because the dimensions of reputational risk identified in this study transcend beyond the governance, ethics, environmental and social spheres of CSR. This way, the study contributes to a holistic representation of reputational risk that can allow researchers to match its broad predictors with broad outcomes.     

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model: An application to the German business cycle

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany, preselected from a broader set using the elastic net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show that a two-state model is not sensitive enough to detect relatively mild recessions reliably when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to distinguish normal and severe recessions clearly, so that the model identifies all business cycle turning points in our sample reliably. In a real-time exercise, the model detects recessions in a timely manner. Combining the estimated factor and the recession probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1, and a correct prediction of the timing of the Great Recession and its recovery one quarter in advance.     

Inflationary equilibrium in a stochastic economy with independent agents

We prove the existence of stationary monetary equilibrium with inflation in a “Bewley” model with constant aggregate real variables but with idiosyncratic shocks to the endowments of a continuum of individual agents, when a central bank stands ready to borrow or lend fiat money at a fixed nominal rate of interest and the agents face borrowing constraints. We also find that, in the presence of real micro uncertainty about individual endowments, the rate of inflation is higher (equivalently, the real rate of interest is lower) than it would be in a “certainty-equivalent economy”; to wit, one in which every agent’s endowment is replaced by its expected value. Thus, underlying microeconomic uncertainty and borrowing constraints are shown to generate additional inflation.     

东盟国家与云南省国际通道建设研究——双边视角

2010年1月1日,中国东盟自贸区正式建成。自贸区的建成极大地促进了双边贸易的发展,对中国-东盟国际通道的建设提出更高的要求。云南省地处中国西南,毗邻越南、老挝和缅甸三国,与泰国和柬埔寨也非常接近,是中国与东盟国家经贸往来的重要通道。本文在中国东盟自贸区建设及云南省桥头堡建设的背景下,将东盟国家作为一个整体,从双边视角对中国与东盟之间的国际通道建设进行研究,分析了双边对通道建设的构思,从中找出切合点,进而对云南省与东盟国家之间畅通、高效的国际通道建设提出了相应的对策。     

Solving the incomplete market model with aggregate uncertainty using a perturbation method

We use a perturbation method to solve the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty described in den Haan et al. [Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents: incomplete markets and model uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, this issue]. To apply that method, we use a “barrier method” to replace the original problem with occasionally binding inequality constraints by one with only equality constraints. We replace the structure with a continuum of agents by a setting in which a single infinitesimal agent faces prices generated by a representative-agent economy. We also solve a model variant with a large (but finite) number of agents. Our perturbation-based method is much simpler and faster than other methods.     

Optimal money growth in a limited participation model with heterogeneous agents

This paper studies optimal money growth in a cash-in-advance production economy with heterogeneity in patience levels and know-how. We show that the rate of deflation suggested by the Friedman rule is limited by the subjective discount rate of the most patient agent in the economy. The output distortion due to cash-in-advance constraints on firms can completely be eliminated by means of the Friedman rule if and only if firms are run by the most patient agents.Received: 16 August 2003, Accepted: 22 March 2005, JEL Classification: D52, D90, E21, E41, E52Parts of this paper were completed while the first and second authors were visiting the University of York and Princeton University respectively. We are thankful for the hospitality of these institutions. The second author also acknowledges the hospitality and support of Bilkent University that he is currently visiting, the support from the Turkish Academy of Sciences in the framework of the ‘Distinguished Young Scientist Award Program’ (TUBA-GEBIP/2004), the grant awarded by the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the NATO Science Fellowship Program as well as the support from the Center for Economic Design of Bogaziçi University. This paper was presented in the ERC/METU Second International Conference on Economics, Ankara, September 1998, and at seminars in Bilkent, Bogaziçi and Ohio State Universities. We thank, in particular, Emre Alper, Sumru Altug, Huw Dixon, Tatsuro Ichiishi, Ivan Pastine, Murat Sertel and Alan Sutherland for useful comments. We also thank two anonymous referees for comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect that of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey.