Second Generation Models of Currency Crises

Until the beginning of the 1990s, currency crises were typically analyzed within the framework of a generation of models that assumed that the foreign exchange reserves of a country that was running a fixed exchange rate policy were falling (because the government was running a deficit on its budget that was financed by printing money). When the foreign exchange reserves reached a lower bound, a speculative attack on the fixed exchange rate was launched. Today, this theory is no longer the benchmark when explaining the occurrence of a currency crisis. Actually, a new generation of models that seeks to take explicitly into account the costs and benefits associated with the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate has emerged. This paper surveys these 'second generation models of currency crises'. This generation of models emphasizes that it is an endogenous decision if a government chooses to abandon a policy of fixed exchange rates. The survey pays special attention to the fact that the second generation of currency crises models often generates multiple equilibria for the rate of devaluation given one state of the economic fundamentals. A currency crisis can thus occur even if no secular trend in economic fundamentals can be identified, as in recent currency crises.     

The Changing Nature of Currency Crises

Abstract.  Currency crises that have been observed in recent years are not a new phenomenon, but the main features of the crises in Latin America in the 1970s and early 1980s are quite different from the crisis in Europe in 1992. Theoretical literature has evolved over time to account for the changing nature of these crises. While many theoretical and empirical papers have been written about various episodes of these crises, the change in their mechanism over time has not been demonstrated well. This paper fills the gap in the literature by graphically depicting the main features of these crises. Such a visual analysis should allow the reader to better understand and follow the changes in the mechanisms over time.     

Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors*

The paper investigates the causes of currency crises in emerging markets. We estimate the probability of a currency crisis by applying maximum smoothly simulated likelihood to a dynamic LDV model. This approach allows us to take explicit account of the existence of intertemporal links between crises. The results show that currency crises are influenced by real, monetary, debt and global variables. Past banking crises are significant determinants of the probability of currency crises. Moreover, countries that sharply devalued in the past are less prone to experience another currency crisis. We find evidence of unobserved heterogeneity, which may reflect differences in the countries’ institutional/historical background. Finally, the determinants of currency crises differ by type of exchange rate regime.     

货币替代和反替代对我国汇率影响的实证研究

货币替代和反替代会影响一国汇率政策的有效性和汇率的决定.我国目前货币替代和货币反替代并存,其中货币替代的程度呈现不断下降的趋势,而货币反替代的程度则不断增强.选取2001Q1-2011Q4之间的相关数据为研究样本,通过构建包含货币替代和货币反替代的粘性价格货币模型,实证检验了我国货币替代和货币反替代对人民币汇率的影响程度.结果发现:货币替代和货币反替代都会影响到我国的汇率,进而会降低我国汇率政策的有效性,但货币反替代的影响更加强烈.     

货币国际化影响因素与作用机制的实证分析

本文在利用国际货币的三大职能全面衡量货币国际化程度的基础上,采用GMM识别货币国际化的影响因素,进而借助自举法的面板Granger因果检验探究货币国际化与其显著影响因素间的相互作用机制。研究发现,货币国际地位的提升在某个阶段可能以某一职能发挥为主,不同阶段的政策着力点应该不同;货币国际化与其影响因素间存在双向因果关系,主导性国际货币对发行国经济因素的影响更为明显;长期来看,人民币国际化成果可以为我国经济增长和金融发展服务。     

银行会计准则调整对银行经营和监管的影响

我国财政部于近期推出了中国版的“IAS39”——《金融工具确认与计量暂行规定》。在巴塞尔协议将于近期予以实行的情况下,探讨会计准则的这种调整给中国银行业经营和监管所带来的一系列影响无疑将具有重大意义。     

货币中的防伪技术

对货币中的防伪技术进行了系统的分类，并对其鉴别方法进行了探讨。     

Conventional Monetary Policy Transmission During Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

This paper studies the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock in the USA during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (‘normal’ and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970:Q1 to 2008:Q4 containing 108 US macroeconomic and financial time series, I find that a monetary policy shock during periods of high financial stress has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption and investment than it has during ‘normal’ times. Differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from nonlinearities in both components of the credit channel, i.e. the balance sheet channel and the bank‐lending channel. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

集团型企业货币资金内部控制探析

集团型企业是指由一个企业作为母体,依法通过一层或多层投资组带关系形成的多级化运作组织。货币资金是企业的命脉,是企业最重要也是风险最高的资产,集团型企业的管理链条长、管理层次复杂等特点导致货币资金管理困难。文章以提高集团型企业货币资金效益、降低货币资金风险、均衡货币资金流动为目的,对集团型企业货币资金内部控制进行了综合分析。按照内部控制五大基本要素分析得出货币资金控制存在的问题及原因,有针对性地提出了加强集团型企业货币资金内部控制的对策及建议。     

Board Determinants in Banking Industry. An International Perspective

This paper explores the factors influencing the board composition of an international sample of commercial banks over the period 1996–2006. After considering the dual role of the board as monitor and advisor, our analysis shows that no one board composition is optimal for the banking industry and that any such recommendation could harm bank governance. Our results suggest that more complex banks that have a low ownership concentration and are headquartered in a civil law country should have larger and more independent boards. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crises, portfolio flows, and foreign direct investment: An application to Turkey

We analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between the components of capital flows and their determinants in an emerging economy. Our results suggest that the composition of capital flows matters, crises can explain the volatility of portfolio flows and foreign direct investment, and modeling them as endogenous breakpoints improves the results considerably. By using data from the Turkish economy, we estimate these breakpoints together with the parameters of the model and find that they correspond to international and domestic crises that hit the country. Although both components are affected by similar crises, direct investment reacts strongly to the domestic crisis, while portfolios flows are more sensitive to global financial conditions. Breaks also have an effect on the significance and sign of determinants of each type of international investment. Evidence indicates changes in all coefficients in both investment types and suggests that analyses assuming parameter constancy lead to misleading results if they ignore the influence of endogenous breaks.     

民营资本进入银行业的效应和策略分析

2010年以来民营资本进入银行业已取得较大的进展。民营资本适度进入银行业可以带来推动银行业的市场化改革、疏导民间资本、服务实体经济的正面效应,但也存在引发恶性竞争、弱化公司治理、威胁金融系统稳定的风险。民营资本进入银行业有资本的进入、机构的进入两种方式。我国政府应在完善政策规则框架、严格控制准入数量、引导民营资本严格自律、建立风险补偿和市场退出机制方面规范民营资本进入银行业。     

金融生态环境对银行监管目标的影响研究

本文选取适当指标衡量金融生态环境和银行监管目标,通过采用主成分分析(PCA)、ADF平稳性检验和格兰杰因果检验等计量分析方法,对2003~2011年间中国金融生态环境与银行监管目标之间相互作用的因果关系进行了实证研究。结果显示,金融生态环境对银行监管目标存在影响。具体地,宏观经济环境和信用环境对公平性目标具有显著影响;制度环境和监管环境对效率性目标具有显著影响;金融生态环境对于稳定性目标的影响则不太显著。     

银行关联、会计信息与债务融资——基于我国民营企业的实证研究

银行关联是否有利于降低会计信息的债务契约有用性?不同的金融生态环境和政治关联程度是否对银行关联与会计信息债务契约有用性的关系产生不同影响?运用我国A股民营上市公司的数据对上述问题进行实证检验,研究发现:银行关联显著降低了会计信息的债务契约有用性;与金融生态环境好的地区相比,在金融生态环境差的地区,银行关联更有助于降低会计信息在债务融资中的有用性;在没有政治关联的企业中,银行关联能更有效地降低会计信息的债务契约有用性,而在有政治关联的企业中,银行关联的作用较弱。     

KLR金融危机预警模型研究——对现阶段新兴市场国家金融危机的实证检验

美国次贷危机的逐步恶化引发了全球金融市场的持续动荡,并逐渐演化为全球性的金融危机.受此冲击以及内在高通胀压力的影响,部分新兴市场国家金融体系的脆弱性逐渐凸显.本文利用国际主流的金融危机预警模型KLR模型对新兴市场国家现阶段的金融危机做了实证检验,结果显示KLR模型的预警绩效较好,可以用于进一步的预警研究.在此基础上对未来一段时间的金融危机进行了预警分析,认为现阶段新兴市场国家尚未爆发全面的金融危机,但部分国家已出现经济、金融形势恶化的趋势,其自身体系的脆弱性导致未来发生危机的概率较高.