我国商品房价格的计量经济学分析

文章简要分析了影响中国商品房价格的因素,收集了2009～2011年全国29个省的相关数据,从实证角度进行了计量分析,并基于模型结果提出了政策建议。     

我国商品房价格的计量经济学分析

文章简要分析了影响中国商品房价格的因素,收集了2009～2011年全国29个省的相关数据,从实证角度进行了计量分析,并基于模型结果提出了政策建议。     

对青海商品房价格分析

商品房的价格高低,直接关系到广大消费者的切身利益。深入研究商品房价格的走势,对健康发展房地产业有重大意义。     

商品房空置率过高的价格因素分析

近年业，我国住房制度改革倍受各界瞩目，在房改进程中，政府、企业、城镇居民面临着同一问题，即：在广大居民迫切需要改善住房条件的同时，商品住房售难度大、空置率高，房地产市场沉淀大量资金。本文针对以上述情况，以北京为例，从商品房价构成和居民购房能力的角度进行了分析，力求解决高房价与低收入的矛盾。     

基于协整与平稳性的我国商品房价格归因分析

本文选取我国近20年的商品房价格作为研究的样本值,分析了影响我国房价的主要因素;首先对各因素变量进行平稳性检验,运用差分对时间序列的非平稳进行修正以达到平稳状态;接着对各因素变量间进行因果关系检验;在构建模型时依次对模型的多重共线性、自相关性、异方差性进行检验和修正,得到最终模型;最后结合模型对影响我国房价的诱因进行经济意义分析并提出了一些建议。     

影响哈尔滨市商品房价格因素分析

本文以哈尔滨市商品房市场为调查分析对象,简要说明商品房价格的构成,对影响商品房价格因素进行分析,从而找出影响商品房价格的最主要因素,并且提出相关政策建议。     

房地产宏观调控对湖南省商品房价格的影响分析

本文对当前湖南省商品房价格的特点与走势进行了初步判断,深入分析了房地产宏观调控背景下湖南省房价加速上涨的原因,并提出了相关政策建议。     

对中小城市商品房价格的调查及建议

在2005年一系列调控政策的作用下,全国商品房“热”,特别是大城市商品房"过热"的趋势出现回落。但典型调查发现,中小城市商品房价格依然高启。通过基于深入调查的实证分析和规范分析后,本文试图对于推动和规范中小城市商品房市场发展提出政策性建议。     

The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis

This article analyzes the dynamic effects of four key macroeconomic variables on the housing prices and the stock of houses sold on the national and regional levels using a nonstructural estimation technique. The impulse response functions derived from the VAR suggest that macroeconomic variables produce cycles in housing prices and houses sold. The housing market was found to be very sensitive to shocks in the employment growth and mortgage rate at both the national and regional levels. In particular, regional housing prices reflect regional employment growth, as well as national mortgage rates. The study also reveals that the economic variables have a different impact on the dynamic behavior of housing prices and the number of houses sold in different regions at different time periods and that these economic aggregates alone cannot explain the fluctuations in real estate values and construction levels that occurred in some regions.     

Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms

Developments in U.S. house prices over the past decade mirror those of the 1996–2006 boom. Construction activity has, however, been weak. Using data for 254 U.S. metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. We find that housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas in which land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts. Consistent with the declining housing supply elasticities, we find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger effect on house prices during the past decade than during the previous boom. At the same time, building permits respond less.     

城镇化质量、房价对产业结构升级的影响研究

：基于2004-2018年中国 31个省市区面板数据,运用面板回归模型和中介效应模型,考量城镇化质量、房价对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明：提升城镇化质量推动了产业结构升级,且西部作用更显著;全国、东部和西部房价上涨推动产业结构升级,在城镇化质量对产业结构升级的影响中,房价中介效应分别为22.5%、22.6%和19.3%,中部房价上涨抑制了产业结构升级。鉴此,应全面提升城镇化质量、加速产城融合进程、建立差异化的房价调控机制等。     

The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales,Hedonic-Regression,and Hybrid Approaches

This article examines a number of hypotheses that underpin the repeat-sales and hedonic approaches to the construction of housing price indices, as well as the practical problems associated with the implementation of either approach. We also examine a hybrid procedure that combines elements of both the repeat-sales and hedonic-regression techniques. For our sample of individual home sales in Oakland and Fremont California over an 18-year period, repeat-sales methods are subject to sample selection bias; the maintained assumption of time constancy of implicit prices of housing attributes is violated; the repeat-sales estimator is extremely sensitive to influential observations; and the usual method used to correct for heteroskedasticity in repeat-sale housing returns is inappropriate in our sample. Hedonic techniques are better suited to contend with index number problems per se, as they can accommodate changing attribute prices over time. They also appear to give rise to more reliable estimates of price indices, as unusual observations have less effect on estimated price indices. Drawbacks of the hedonic approach include the usual concern with omitted attributes, and their effect on the estimated price index.     

房地产价格地区差异影响因素的计量分析

伴随房地产市场调控政策的陆续出台,各地房地产市场的走势成为政府、产业界和消费者共同关注的焦点。国家要求各地要根据自身房地产市场的状况制定有针对性的限购政策和廉租房、经适房建设政策。这其中值得注意的一个重要问题就是各地政府如何根据房地产市场价格形成的内在规律,制定差异化的符合各地房地产市场发展实际的政策,从而对保证各地房地产市场的发展和民生的改善具有很好的协调性。因此,揭示房地产市场价格地区差异形成的内在机理,并以此作为制定各地差异化调控政策的依据,就成为其中的关键所在。     

Reexamining the Price Effects of Assumption Financing: The Case of Above-Market Interest Rates

Although previous research addresses the price effects of below-market loan assumptions in housing transactions, no direct evidence exists regarding the price effects of above-market loan assumptions. This study develops a hypothesis of strictly nonnegative price effects in assumption financing and empirically documents a positive impact in housing transactions involving above-market loan assumptions. Based on a switching regimes regression analysis of 2,669 single-family house transactions, we find evidence of a significant price premium in moderately priced homes involving above-market loan assumptions but no evidence for a financing premium for more expensive homes. The results suggest that the sources of the premium in the moderately priced home market are the assuming buyer's motivations to minimize transactions costs and to avoid lenders' qualification criteria.     

商业银行个人住房转按揭贷款法律问题研究

近年来,商业银行个人住房转按揭贷款在中国迅速发展.作为一种新型的融资方式,个人住房转按揭贷款涉及的当事人较多,法律关系较为复杂.本文根据转按揭涉及的主体不同将其划分为三类,并分别介绍了它们各自产生的动因和相关的法律依据.在此基础上,作者详细阐述了个人住房转按揭贷款中涉及的保险法律问题,以及银行在其中所处的法律地位.针对转按揭贷款业务的流程特点,笔者指出由于转按揭贷款在发放后的一段时间内没有抵押担保,银行由此面临风险,而加强银行之间的合作以及选择专业的担保公司作为保证人是防范上述风险的有效途径.     

Regional Differences and Threshold Effects of Capital-Skill Complementarity in China

On the framework of Chris and Viera (2005), this article studies the capital-skill complementarity and its regional differences of China, firstly. It is shown that there exists evidence in favor of capital-skill complementarity on the full sample of China. When we test its regional differences, we find no evidence in favor of capital-skill complementarity in the central and western regions, but strong evidence in the eastern region. Further study finds that, the “capital-skill complementarity” exists in the threshold effect. Thus, we argue that the original differences of capital-skill complementarity are relative to the economic development. These results reveal that the low-income region (such as the central and western regions) tends to allocate their capital to complement their abundance of unskilled labor but not skilled labor, but the middle-income region (such as the eastern region) shows just the opposite trend. In short, this article provides some new evidences for the nonlinearity of capital-skill complementarity and supports the viewpoint on “transitory phenomenon” of capital-skill complementarity.     

试论国有商业银行信贷资源的区域化配置

国有商业银行信贷资源的区域化配置是转型时期我国经济非均衡发展阶段不可回避的课题。由于我国经济制度变迁的渐进性,随着国有商业银行市场化改革的深入推进,其从西部地区信贷市场的快速退出与区域内其他金融制度供给不足相矛盾。因此,在目前无论从贯彻国家区域发展政策还是从国有商业银行自身利益的角度,实行信贷资源的区域化配置有其客观性和必然性。本文从宏观和微观两个层面分析我国区域经济发展的差距,对国有商业银行信贷资源区域化配置的现实要求进行了制度阐释,就东西部信贷风险的差异进行了比较,从政府和银行两个层面探索了国有商业银行信贷资源区域化配置的基本思路。     

中国城市住房价格动态特征及其影响因素

本文从理论和实证两个层面分析了1997-2007年中国35个大中城市的房价动态特征,并考察了城市因素对房价动态参数的影响。所得主要结论有:中国城市房价具有强序列相关和弱均值回归特征;住房使用成本、地区市场化指数、土地交易价格指数及其变化对序列相关系数有显著影响;真实收入及其变化、建造成本、地区市场化指数对均值回归系数有显著影响;各城市的房价动态参数拟合值几乎全部落入震荡收敛区内,东部城市房价的波动振幅普遍高于中西部城市;1999年后35个大中城市的平均房价波动振幅有逐渐增大的趋势,尤其是2007年的房价波动振幅出现了非正常增长,但波动频率变化幅度不大。